Category Archives: MMA Ranks

This Week’s WHR Parlays…

Mar 20, 2024
Jason

I know I said in my last post, I was going to cover the rest of March in that one, but changed my mind.

In this post, I’m going to cover this week’s fights and will now feature three different parlays:

Bouts considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

  • Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event).  Reduces uncertainty.
  • Both fighters must have at least 5 fights with at least 1 draw or 1 loss.  More data makes WHR happy.
  • Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight.  Further reduces uncertainty.
  • Major organizations only.  I may leave comments on interesting bets for other organizations.

 

Now for the parlays…

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas (03-23-2024)

Mar 18, 2024
Jason

Women Flyweight (125)
[#9/#4P4P] Rose Namajunas (11-6-0, -177) vs. [#6SW] Amanda Ribas (12-4-0, +146)
Rose Namajunas is the All-Time #10 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Rose Namajunas (1-2-0)
2023-09-02: L vs. [#3FLY/#7DD/#8P4P] Manon Fiorot (11-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2022-05-07: L vs. [*] Carla Esparza (19-7-0) via SD ()
2021-11-06: W vs. [#1SW/#1DD/#1P4P] Weili Zhang (24-3-0) via SD (47-48, 49-46, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Amanda Ribas (2-1-0)
2023-11-18: W vs. [#29SW] Luana Pinheiro (11-2-0) via TKO (Spinning Wheel Kick and Punches) in 3:53 of round 3
2023-06-24: L vs. [#5FLY] Maycee Barber (14-2-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 3:42 of round 2
2023-03-04: W vs. [#11FLY] Viviane Araujo (12-6-0) via UD (29-27, 30-26, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Rose Namajunas -177 61.11%
Elo K170 Rose Namajunas 1779.79 +124.26 67.15%
Elo Modified Rose Namajunas 1755.84 +84.86 61.97%
Glicko-1 Rose Namajunas 1735.05 +75.64 60.72%
WHR Rose Namajunas 1699.09 +61.24 58.72%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rose Namajunas 203, Amanda Ribas 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[#60] Justin Tafa (7-3-0, +209) vs. [#68] Karl Williams (9-1-0, -267)

Last 3 Fights: Justin Tafa (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2023-09-09: W vs. [#125HW+] Austen Lane (12-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:22 of round 1
2023-06-24: NC vs. [#125HW+] Austen Lane (12-4-0)
2023-02-11: W vs. [#120HW+] Parker Porter (13-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:06 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Karl Williams (3-0-0)
2023-05-13: W vs. [#69HW+] Chase Sherman (18-12-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2023-03-11: W vs. [#169HW+] Lukasz Brzeski (8-4-1) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-26)
2022-09-06: W vs. [*] Jimmy Lawson (4-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Karl Williams -267 69.21%
Elo K170 Karl Williams 1548.72 +32.94 54.73%
Elo Modified Karl Williams 1622.79 +50.33 57.19%
Glicko-1 Justin Tafa 1623.74 +50.05 57.15%
WHR Justin Tafa 1521.04 +53.90 57.70%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Justin Tafa 196, Karl Williams 315
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#63] Edmen Shahbazyan (12-4-0, -192) vs. [#156] A.J. Dobson (7-2-0, +156)

Last 3 Fights: Edmen Shahbazyan (1-2-0)
2023-05-20: L vs. [#25MW] Anthony Hernandez (12-2-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 1:01 of round 3
2022-12-10: W vs. [*] Dalcha Lungiambula (11-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:41 of round 2
2021-11-06: L vs. [#13MW] Nassourdine Imavov (13-4-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 4:42 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: A.J. Dobson (1-2-0)
2023-08-12: W vs. [#175MW] Tafon Nchukwi (6-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-10-22: L vs. [#80MW] Armen Petrosyan (9-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-02-12: L vs. [#107MW] Jacob Malkoun (7-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Edmen Shahbazyan -192 62.73%
Elo K170 Edmen Shahbazyan 1578.86 +173.80 73.12%
Elo Modified Edmen Shahbazyan 1592.60 +100.31 64.05%
Glicko-1 Edmen Shahbazyan 1618.65 +166.34 72.26%
WHR Edmen Shahbazyan 1543.43 +80.90 61.44%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Edmen Shahbazyan 308, A.J. Dobson 224
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura (03-16-2024)

Mar 11, 2024
Jason

Heavyweight (265)
[#10] Tai Tuivasa (14-6-0, -128) vs. [#16] Marcin Tybura (24-8-0, +104)
Tai Tuivasa is the All-Time #49 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Tai Tuivasa (0-3-0)
2023-09-09: L vs. [#6HW+] Alexander Volkov (37-10-0) via Submission (Ezekiel Choke) in 4:37 of round 2
2022-12-03: L vs. [#4HW+] Sergei Pavlovich (18-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:54 of round 1
2022-09-03: L vs. [#2HW+] Ciryl Gane (12-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:23 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Marcin Tybura (2-1-0)
2023-07-22: L vs. [#3HW+] Tom Aspinall (14-3-0) via TKO (Elbow and Punches) in 1:13 of round 1
2023-02-04: W vs. [#25HW+] Blagoy Ivanov (19-6-0) via UD ()
2022-08-20: W vs. [#20HW+] Alexander Romanov (17-2-0) via MD (29-28, 29-28, 28-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Tai Tuivasa -128 53.38%
Elo K170 Marcin Tybura 1862.59 +104.08 64.55%
Elo Modified Marcin Tybura 1878.58 +104.84 64.65%
Glicko-1 Marcin Tybura 1900.89 +78.35 61.09%
WHR Marcin Tybura 1781.69 +89.16 62.55%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Tai Tuivasa 189, Marcin Tybura 238
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 5 win(s) against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#31] Kennedy Nzechukwu (12-4-0, -493) vs. [#45] Ovince St. Preux (26-17-0, +350)

Last 3 Fights: Kennedy Nzechukwu (2-1-0)
2023-08-05: L vs. [#22LHW] Dustin Jacoby (19-8-1) via TKO (Punches) in 1:22 of round 1
2023-05-06: W vs. [#44LHW] Devin Clark (14-9-0) via Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:28 of round 2
2022-11-19: W vs. [#29LHW] Ion Cutelaba (17-10-1) via TKO (Flying Knee and Punches) in 1:02 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Ovince St. Preux (1-2-0)
2023-02-18: L vs. [#18LHW] Philipe Lins (18-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:49 of round 1
2022-05-07: W vs. [*] Mauricio Rua (27-14-1) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 29-28)
2021-06-26: L vs. [#64LHW] Tanner Boser (21-10-1) via KO (Punches) in 2:31 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Kennedy Nzechukwu -493 78.91%
Elo K170 Kennedy Nzechukwu 1615.71 +83.10 61.74%
Elo Modified Kennedy Nzechukwu 1662.55 +112.03 65.59%
Glicko-1 Kennedy Nzechukwu 1701.10 +149.64 70.29%
WHR Kennedy Nzechukwu 1659.57 +120.40 66.67%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kennedy Nzechukwu 224, Ovince St. Preux 392
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[*] Mike Davis (10-2-0, -260) vs. [*] Natan Levy (8-1-0, +207)

Last 3 Fights: Mike Davis (3-0-0)
2022-10-01: W vs. [#176LW] Viacheslav Borshchev (7-3-1) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 29-28)
2021-01-20: W vs. [#86LW] Mason Jones (14-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-10-12: W vs. [*] Thomas Gifford (17-10-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:45 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Natan Levy (2-1-0)
2022-12-03: W vs. [#715LW] Genaro Valdez (10-3-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2022-04-30: W vs. [#209LW] Mike Breeden (11-6-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2021-11-20: L vs. [#41LW] Rafa Garcia (16-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Mike Davis -260 68.91%
Elo K170 Mike Davis 1626.84 +90.45 62.73%
Elo Modified Mike Davis 1661.28 +100.34 64.05%
Glicko-1 Mike Davis 1678.91 +148.62 70.17%
WHR Mike Davis 1664.94 +201.00 76.08%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mike Davis 532, Natan Levy 469
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Fight Matrix Program – UFC 299: O’Malley vs. Vera 2 (03-09-2024)

Mar 4, 2024
Jason

Bantamweight Championship (135)
[#1/#9DD/#10P4P] Sean OMalley (17-1-0, -279) vs. [#5] Marlon Vera (24-8-1, +222)
Sean OMalley is the All-Time #12 ranked Bantamweight fighter.
Marlon Vera is the All-Time #34 ranked Bantamweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Sean OMalley (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2023-08-19: W vs. [#3BW] Aljamain Sterling (23-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:51 of round 2
2022-10-22: W vs. [#8BW] Petr Yan (16-5-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2022-07-02: NC vs. [#12BW] Pedro Munhoz (20-8-0)

Last 3 Fights: Marlon Vera (2-1-0)
2023-08-19: W vs. [#12BW] Pedro Munhoz (20-8-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-03-25: L vs. [#4BW] Cory Sandhagen (17-4-0) via SD (50-45, 49-46, 47-48)
2022-08-13: W vs. [*] Dominick Cruz (24-4-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 2:17 of round 4

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Sean OMalley -279 70.32%
Elo K170 Sean OMalley 2123.84 +52.00 57.43%
Elo Modified Marlon Vera 2085.54 +28.81 54.14%
Glicko-1 Marlon Vera 2156.78 +23.83 53.42%
WHR Sean OMalley 1962.01 +2.97 50.43%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sean OMalley 203, Marlon Vera 203
Previous Match-up Record: Marlon Vera leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#4] Dustin Poirier (29-8-0, +175) vs. [#15] Benoit St. Denis (13-1-0, -215)
Dustin Poirier is the All-Time #4 ranked Lightweight and #30 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Dustin Poirier (1-2-0)
2023-07-29: L vs. [#3LW/#8P4P] Justin Gaethje (25-4-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 1:00 of round 2
2022-11-12: W vs. [*] Michael Chandler (23-8-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:00 of round 3
2021-12-11: L vs. [#2LW/#5DD/#7P4P] Charles Oliveira (34-9-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:02 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Benoit St. Denis (3-0-0)
2023-11-11: W vs. [#38LW] Matt Frevola (11-4-1) via KO (Head Kick) in 1:31 of round 1
2023-09-02: W vs. [#51LW] Thiago Moises (17-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:44 of round 2
2023-07-01: W vs. [#83LW] Ismael Bonfim (19-4-0) via SUB in 4:48 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Benoit St. Denis -215 65.24%
Elo K170 Dustin Poirier 2238.03 +263.03 81.97%
Elo Modified Dustin Poirier 2188.08 +223.38 78.35%
Glicko-1 Dustin Poirier 2247.43 +171.99 72.91%
WHR Dustin Poirier 2004.99 +68.90 59.79%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dustin Poirier 224, Benoit St. Denis 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#14] Kevin Holland (25-10-0, -132) vs. [#18] Michael Page (21-2-0, +110)

Last 3 Fights: Kevin Holland (2-1-0)
2023-09-16: L vs. [#12WW] Jack Della Maddalena (16-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-07-29: W vs. [#42WW] Michael Chiesa (16-7-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 2:39 of round 1
2023-04-08: W vs. [#32WW] Santiago Ponzinibbio (29-7-0) via KO (Punch) in 3:16 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Michael Page (2-1-0)
2023-03-10: W vs. [#56WW] Goiti Yamauchi (28-6-0) via TKO (Leg Kick) in 0:26 of round 1
2022-05-13: L vs. [#24WW] Logan Storley (15-2-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 49-46)
2021-10-01: W vs. [#23MW] Douglas Lima (33-11-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Kevin Holland -132 54.43%
Elo K170 Michael Page 1997.58 +99.52 63.94%
Elo Modified Michael Page 1992.24 +51.37 57.34%
Glicko-1 Michael Page 2077.22 +52.73 57.53%
WHR Michael Page 1936.14 +89.44 62.59%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kevin Holland 175, Michael Page 365
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev (03-02-2024)

Feb 26, 2024
Jason

Heavyweight (265)
[#13] Jairzinho Rozenstruik (13-5-0, +119) vs. [#37] Shamil Gaziev (12-0-0, -146)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik is the All-Time #47 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jairzinho Rozenstruik (1-2-0)
2023-05-13: L vs. [#7HW+] Jailton Almeida (20-2-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:43 of round 1
2022-12-10: W vs. [#30LHW] Chris Daukaus (12-7-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:23 of round 1
2022-06-04: L vs. [#5HW+] Alexander Volkov (37-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:12 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Shamil Gaziev (3-0-0)
2023-12-16: W vs. [#69HW+] Martin Buday (13-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:56 of round 2
2023-09-19: W vs. [#146HW+] Greg Velasco (6-1-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:38 of round 1
2023-02-18: W vs. [#47HW+] Darko Stosic (20-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:54 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Shamil Gaziev -146 56.51%
Elo K170 Shamil Gaziev 1753.20 +13.23 51.51%
Elo Modified Jairzinho Rozenstruik 1760.24 +25.72 52.81%
Glicko-1 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 1814.26 +25.36 53.64%
WHR Shamil Gaziev 1740.76 +23.48 52.68%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jairzinho Rozenstruik 294, Shamil Gaziev 77
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#27] Vitor Petrino (10-0-0, -287) vs. [#62] Tyson Pedro (10-4-0, +224)

Last 3 Fights: Vitor Petrino (3-0-0)
2023-11-04: W vs. [#51LHW] Modestas Bukauskas (15-6-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:03 of round 2
2023-07-08: W vs. [#36LHW] Marcin Prachnio (17-7-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 3:42 of round 3
2023-03-11: W vs. [#155LHW] Anton Turkalj (8-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)

Last 3 Fights: Tyson Pedro (2-1-0)
2023-09-09: W vs. [#155LHW] Anton Turkalj (8-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:12 of round 1
2023-02-11: L vs. [#51LHW] Modestas Bukauskas (15-6-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-08-20: W vs. [*] Harry Hunsucker (7-6-0) via TKO (Body Kick and Punches) in 1:05 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Vitor Petrino -287 70.61%
Elo K170 Vitor Petrino 1740.71 +207.33 72.06%
Elo Modified Vitor Petrino 1761.62 +200.28 70.62%
Glicko-1 Vitor Petrino 1786.69 +167.98 72.45%
WHR Vitor Petrino 1826.11 +241.20 75.06%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Vitor Petrino 119, Tyson Pedro 175
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Vitor Petrino leads 2-1
.

Middleweight (185)
[#61] Eryk Anders (15-8-0, -331) vs. [#205] Jamie Pickett (13-10-0, +251)

Last 3 Fights: Eryk Anders (1-2-0)
2023-06-10: L vs. [#39MW] Marc-Andre Barriault (17-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-12-03: W vs. [#77MW] Kyle Daukaus (14-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:45 of round 2
2022-05-21: L vs. [#32MW] Jun Yong Park (17-6-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Jamie Pickett (0-3-0)
2023-08-12: L vs. [#130MW] Josh Fremd (11-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-03-04: L vs. [#124MW] Bo Nickal (5-0-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 2:54 of round 1
2022-09-10: L vs. [#155MW] Denis Tiuliulin (10-9-0) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 4:52 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Eryk Anders -331 72.94%
Elo K170 Eryk Anders 1545.43 +370.68 84.47%
Elo Modified Eryk Anders 1606.85 +357.24 82.69%
Glicko-1 Eryk Anders 1650.23 +438.85 92.59%
WHR Eryk Anders 1594.96 +385.96 85.36%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Eryk Anders 266, Jamie Pickett 203
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Eryk Anders leads 1-0
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