Author Archives: Jason

Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis (2020-11-28)

23 Nov , 2020,
Jason

Heavyweight (265)
[#3] Curtis Blaydes (14-2-0, -334) vs. [#4] Derrick Lewis (24-7-0, +259)
Curtis Blaydes is the All-Time #33 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Derrick Lewis is the All-Time #29 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Curtis Blaydes (3-0-0)
2020-06-20: W vs. [#7HW+] Alexander Volkov (32-8-0) via UD (48-47, 48-46, 49-46)
2020-01-25: W vs. [#8HW+] Junior dos Santos (21-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:06 of round 2
2019-09-07: W vs. [#22HW+] Shamil Abdurakhimov (20-6-0) via TKO (Elbow and Punch) in 2:22 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Derrick Lewis (3-0-0)
2020-08-08: W vs. [#10HW+] Alexey Oleynik (59-14-1) via TKO (Punches) in 0:21 of round 2
2020-02-08: W vs. [#42HW+] Ilir Latifi (14-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-11-02: W vs. [#17HW+] Blagoy Ivanov (18-4-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Curtis Blaydes -334 73.42%
Elo K170 Curtis Blaydes 2113.49 +15.74 51.80%
Elo Modified Curtis Blaydes 2101.48 +61.24 56.66%
Glicko-1 Curtis Blaydes 2189.51 +68.81 59.78%
WHR Curtis Blaydes 2021.03 +114.89 62.83%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Curtis Blaydes 161, Derrick Lewis 112
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Curtis Blaydes leads 5-4
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#15] Anthony Smith (33-16-0, -119) vs. [#42] Devin Clark (12-4-0, -105)
Anthony Smith is the All-Time #38 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Anthony Smith (1-2-0)
2020-08-29: L vs. [#12LHW] Aleksandar Rakic (13-2-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
2020-05-13: L vs. [#4LHW] Glover Teixeira (32-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:04 of round 5
2019-06-01: W vs. [#19LHW] Alexander Gustafsson (18-7-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:38 of round 4

Last 3 Fights: Devin Clark (2-1-0)
2020-06-06: W vs. [#64LHW] Alonzo Menifield (9-2-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2020-02-15: W vs. [#210MW] Dequan Townsend (22-12-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-26)
2019-10-12: L vs. [#27LHW] Ryan Spann (18-6-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:01 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Anthony Smith -119 51.47%
Elo K170 Anthony Smith 1827.66 +140.26 65.49%
Elo Modified Anthony Smith 1845.49 +142.93 65.15%
Glicko-1 Anthony Smith 1921.91 +220.14 78.03%
WHR Anthony Smith 1786.59 +211.83 72.47%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Anthony Smith 91, Devin Clark 175
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[#92] Josh Parisian (13-3-0, -215) vs. [#178] Parker Porter (9-6-0, +174)

Last 3 Fights: Josh Parisian (3-0-0)
2020-08-18: W vs. [#222HW+] Chad Johnson (6-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:43 of round 1
2020-01-29: W vs. [#378MW] Marcus Maulding (8-11-0) via TKO in 3:57 of round 1
2019-12-14: W vs. [#452HW+] Matunga Djikasa (3-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:16 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Parker Porter (2-1-0)
2020-08-15: L vs. [#74HW+] Chris Daukaus (10-3-0) via TKO (Punches and Knee) in 4:28 of round 1
2019-09-07: W vs. [#209HW+] Dirlei Broenstrup (16-8-0) via TKO in 3:17 of round 3
2019-05-31: W vs. [*] Kevin Ray Sears (8-6-0) via Submission (Kimura) in 2:29 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Josh Parisian -215 65.15%
Elo K170 Josh Parisian 1442.09 +197.81 71.17%
Elo Modified Josh Parisian 1457.67 +137.86 64.65%
Glicko-1 Josh Parisian 1514.71 +199.29 75.90%
WHR Josh Parisian 1399.85 +106.77 61.96%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Josh Parisian 102, Parker Porter 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Perez (2020-11-21)

19 Nov , 2020,
Jason

Flyweight Championship (125)
[#1/#4DD/#6P4P] Deiveson Figueiredo (19-1-0, -306) vs. [#4] Alex Perez (24-5-0, +241)
Deiveson Figueiredo is the All-Time #8 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Alex Perez is the All-Time #31 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Deiveson Figueiredo (3-0-0)
2020-07-18: W vs. [#2FLY] Joseph Benavidez (28-7-0) via Technical Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:48 of round 1
2020-02-29: W vs. [#2FLY] Joseph Benavidez (28-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:54 of round 2
2019-10-12: W vs. [#27FLY] Tim Elliott (16-11-1) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:08 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Alex Perez (3-0-0)
2020-06-06: W vs. [#8FLY] Jussier Formiga (23-8-0) via TKO (Leg Kick) in 4:06 of round 1
2020-01-25: W vs. [#32FLY] Jordan Espinosa (15-8-0) via Technical Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 2:33 of round 1
2019-03-30: W vs. [#189BW] Mark De La Rosa (11-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Deiveson Figueiredo -306 71.98%
Elo K170 Deiveson Figueiredo 2120.37 +236.24 74.64%
Elo Modified Deiveson Figueiredo 2080.48 +213.05 71.76%
Glicko-1 Deiveson Figueiredo 2167.01 +275.51 83.00%
WHR Deiveson Figueiredo 1962.32 +211.11 72.40%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Deiveson Figueiredo 126, Alex Perez 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Deiveson Figueiredo leads 2-1
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Women Flyweight Championship (125)
[#1/#3DD/#3P4P] Valentina Shevchenko (19-3-0, -1569) vs. [#4] Jennifer Maia (18-6-1, +860)
Valentina Shevchenko is the All-Time #5 ranked Women’s fighter.
Jennifer Maia is the All-Time #22 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Valentina Shevchenko (3-0-0)
2020-02-08: W vs. [#3FLY] Katlyn Chookagian (14-4-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 1:03 of round 3
2019-08-10: W vs. [#6FLY] Liz Carmouche (14-7-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2019-06-08: W vs. [#9FLY] Jessica Eye (15-8-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 0:26 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Jennifer Maia (2-1-0)
2020-08-01: W vs. [#16FLY] Joanne Calderwood (14-5-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:29 of round 1
2019-11-02: L vs. [#3FLY] Katlyn Chookagian (14-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-07-20: W vs. [#12FLY] Roxanne Modafferi (25-17-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Valentina Shevchenko -1569 90.02%
Elo K170 Valentina Shevchenko 1908.70 +247.43 75.59%
Elo Modified Valentina Shevchenko 1914.24 +265.70 76.19%
Glicko-1 Valentina Shevchenko 1931.58 +285.00 83.76%
WHR Valentina Shevchenko 1913.37 +326.67 81.65%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Valentina Shevchenko 287, Jennifer Maia 112
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Valentina Shevchenko leads 2-0
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Welterweight (170)
[#27] Mike Perry (14-6-0, -153) vs. [#61] Tim Means (30-12-1, +127)

Last 3 Fights: Mike Perry (1-2-0)
2020-06-27: W vs. [#151WW] Mickey Gall (6-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-12-14: L vs. [#16WW] Geoff Neal (13-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:30 of round 1
2019-08-10: L vs. [#12WW] Vicente Luque (19-7-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Tim Means (2-1-0)
2020-08-08: W vs. [#93WW] Laureano Staropoli (9-3-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2020-02-15: L vs. [#44WW] Daniel Rodriguez (13-1-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:37 of round 2
2019-12-07: W vs. [#89WW] Thiago Alves (23-15-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:38 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Mike Perry -153 57.85%
Elo K170 Mike Perry 1737.38 +96.22 60.82%
Elo Modified Mike Perry 1763.09 +87.32 59.44%
Glicko-1 Mike Perry 1814.22 +106.02 64.80%
WHR Mike Perry 1665.05 +37.37 54.26%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mike Perry 147, Tim Means 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Mike Perry leads 1-0
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Felder/dos Anjos – Split Decision?!

15 Nov , 2020,
Jason

50-45, 50-45, 47-48

The odd decision of Felder/dos Anjos surfaced some questions on how to handle split decisions where there is one super obvious outlier.  Do you respect that all judges have an equal say?  Do you take the one in the middle (median)?  Something else?

Let’s take a look at the effects of Felder’s rating in the various systems — dos Anjos switched divisions, while Felder remained at 155, which makes him a better subject for this within the standard system.

 

System Win Weights Pre-Fight Post-Fight Diff
Fight Matrix “Standard” 72 (90,97) 427 427 =
ELO “K170” 100 (100,100) 1909 1828 -81
ELO “Modified” 67 (100,100) 1929 1894 -35
Glicko-1 55 (91,91) 1985 1967 -18
WHR 69 (88,99) 1839 1819 -20

The win weights list three weights (the “power” of a win out of 100) for:

  1. The actual fight.
  2. The fight if it were scored 49-46 x3 UD (average).
  3. The fight if it were scored 50-45 x3 UD (majority & median).

In all systems but the standard, Felder lost points.  OK, if we are to get technical, Felder lost 0.0051 points in the standard system, but that had nothing to do with the fight itself.  The standard and the WHR systems were the least affected by this egregious error.

 

 

 

Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Felder (2020-11-14)

9 Nov , 2020,
Jason

Lightweight (155)
[#10WW] Rafael dos Anjos (29-13-0) vs. [#11] Paul Felder (17-5-0)
Rafael dos Anjos is the All-Time #7 ranked Lightweight and #33 ranked Absolute fighter.
Paul Felder is the All-Time #44 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Rafael dos Anjos (1-2-0)
2020-01-25: L vs. [#9WW] Michael Chiesa (17-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-07-20: L vs. [*] Leon Edwards (18-3-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)
2019-05-18: W vs. [#9LW] Kevin Lee (18-6-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:47 of round 4

Last 3 Fights: Paul Felder (2-1-0)
2020-02-22: L vs. [#6LW] Dan Hooker (20-9-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)
2019-09-07: W vs. [#10FW] Edson Barboza (21-9-0) via SD (27-30, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-02-17: W vs. [#122WW] James Vick (13-5-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Elo K170 Rafael dos Anjos 1923.27 +14.23 51.63%
Elo Modified Paul Felder 1943.93 +41.74 54.56%
Glicko-1 Paul Felder 1984.52 +34.31 54.92%
WHR Rafael dos Anjos 1875.00 +36.14 54.12%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rafael dos Anjos 294, Paul Felder 266
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#61] Kalinn Williams (10-1-0, +186) vs. [#127] Abdul Razak Alhassan (10-2-0, -231)

Last 3 Fights: Kalinn Williams (3-0-0)
2020-02-08: W vs. [#72WW] Alex Morono (17-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:27 of round 1
2019-11-27: W vs. [#363WW] Jeremie Holloway (10-4-0) via UD ()
2019-10-26: W vs. [#648MW] Bo Yan (8-11-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:24 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Abdul Razak Alhassan (2-1-0)
2020-07-15: L vs. [#108WW] Mounir Lazzez (10-1-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2018-09-08: W vs. [#36WW] Niko Price (14-4-1) via KO (Punch) in 0:43 of round 1
2018-01-20: W vs. [#58WW] Sabah Homasi (15-8-0) via KO (Punch) in 3:47 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Abdul Razak Alhassan -231 66.61%
Elo K170 Kalinn Williams 1647.41 +73.57 58.33%
Elo Modified Kalinn Williams 1649.39 +14.76 51.62%
Glicko-1 Abdul Razak Alhassan 1675.28 +2.01 50.29%
WHR Abdul Razak Alhassan 1634.50 +121.77 63.56%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kalinn Williams 280, Abdul Razak Alhassan 122
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[*] Julian Marquez (7-2-0, -295) vs. [#230] Saparbek Safarov (9-3-0, +234)

Last 3 Fights: Julian Marquez (2-1-0)
2018-07-06: L vs. [#97MW] Alessio Di Chirico (12-5-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 27-30)
2017-12-16: W vs. [#55MW] Darren Stewart (12-6-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:42 of round 2
2017-08-01: W vs. [#145MW] Phil Hawes (9-2-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 2:20 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Saparbek Safarov (1-2-0)
2020-03-07: L vs. [#58MW] Rodolfo Vieira (7-0-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 2:58 of round 1
2019-03-16: W vs. [*] Nicolae Negumereanu (9-1-0) via UD (29-27, 29-26, 29-26)
2018-02-10: L vs. [*] Tyson Pedro (7-3-0) via Submission (Kimura) in 3:54 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Julian Marquez -295 71.38%
Elo K170 Julian Marquez 1416.04 +10.16 51.16%
Elo Modified Julian Marquez 1511.21 +41.19 54.50%
Glicko-1 Julian Marquez 1549.30 +117.14 66.25%
WHR Julian Marquez 1526.17 +137.85 65.24%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Julian Marquez 862, Saparbek Safarov 252
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Teixeira (2020-10-31)

2 Nov , 2020,
Jason

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#5] Glover Teixeira (31-7-0, +177) vs. [*] Thiago Santos (21-7-0, -219)
Glover Teixeira is the All-Time #21 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Glover Teixeira (3-0-0)
2020-05-13: W vs. [#14LHW] Anthony Smith (33-16-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:04 of round 5
2019-09-14: W vs. [#13LHW] Nikita Krylov (26-7-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-04-27: W vs. [#39LHW] Ion Cutelaba (15-6-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:37 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Thiago Santos (2-1-0)
2019-07-06: L vs. [#1LHW/#6DD/#1P4P] Jon Jones (26-1-0) via SD (47-48, 48-47, 48-47)
2019-02-23: W vs. [#2LHW] Jan Blachowicz (27-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:39 of round 3
2018-12-08: W vs. [*] Jimi Manuwa (17-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:41 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Thiago Santos -219 65.53%
Elo K170 Glover Teixeira 2069.52 +38.31 54.37%
Elo Modified Thiago Santos 2087.11 +47.36 55.16%
Glicko-1 Thiago Santos 2208.58 +75.97 60.76%
WHR Thiago Santos 2009.17 +62.92 57.14%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Glover Teixeira 178, Thiago Santos 490
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[#27] Andrei Arlovski (29-19-0, +206) vs. [#36] Tanner Boser (19-6-1, -258)
Andrei Arlovski is the All-Time #19 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Andrei Arlovski (2-1-0)
2020-05-13: W vs. [#48HW+] Philipe Lins (14-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2019-11-02: L vs. [#5HW+] Jairzinho Rozenstruik (11-1-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:29 of round 1
2019-07-20: W vs. [#26HW+] Ben Rothwell (38-13-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Tanner Boser (2-1-0)
2020-07-25: W vs. [#83HW+] Raphael Pessoa (10-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:36 of round 2
2020-06-27: W vs. [#48HW+] Philipe Lins (14-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:41 of round 1
2019-12-21: L vs. [#46HW+] Ciryl Gane (6-0-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Tanner Boser -258 68.80%
Elo K170 Andrei Arlovski 1655.25 +22.64 52.58%
Elo Modified Andrei Arlovski 1708.53 +7.98 50.87%
Glicko-1 Andrei Arlovski 1745.95 +18.47 52.66%
WHR Andrei Arlovski 1696.15 +89.79 60.11%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Andrei Arlovski 178, Tanner Boser 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Bantamweight (135)
[#16] Raoni Barcelos (15-1-0) vs. [#83] Khalid Taha (14-2-0)

Last 3 Fights: Raoni Barcelos (3-0-0)
2019-12-21: W vs. [#39BW] Said Nurmagomedov (14-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-05-11: W vs. [#274BW] Carlos Huachin (11-5-3) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 4:49 of round 2
2018-11-30: W vs. [*] Chris Gutierrez (15-4-2) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:12 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Khalid Taha (2-1-0)
2019-10-05: W vs. [#117FLY] Bruno Silva (10-6-2) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:00 of round 3
2019-04-13: W vs. [#544LW] Boston Salmon (7-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:25 of round 1
2018-07-22: L vs. [#145FW] Nad Narimani (12-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Elo K170 Raoni Barcelos 1920.02 +297.73 79.58%
Elo Modified Raoni Barcelos 1909.53 +277.03 77.08%
Glicko-1 Raoni Barcelos 1961.00 +304.70 85.24%
WHR Raoni Barcelos 1866.81 +313.13 80.70%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Raoni Barcelos 322, Khalid Taha 399
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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