Well, it was a bad week for the parlays… and the “smart” option has been looking pretty stupid.  I’m adding a new requirement for the bets — I must have odds from at least three books to consider a fight.  I noticed last week, that a fight only had odds from one book, and it had incredibly wild swings — probably due to a limited amount of betters taking interest in that fight and/or one rich guy spiking the punch bowl.  This will limit the parlays tremendously, so I will now start posting individual bets if there is only one viable option.  In addition, I’m also going to limit the “smart” parlays to 3 fighters (was 4).

Bouts considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

• Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event).  Reduces uncertainty.
• Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut).  More data makes WHR happy.
• Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight.  Further reduces uncertainty.

Now for the options…

Flyweight (125)
[#11] Matheus Nicolau (19-3-1, -183) vs. [#60] Alex Perez (24-8-0, +152)
Matheus Nicolau is the All-Time #35 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Alex Perez is the All-Time #36 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Matheus Nicolau (2-1-0)
2023-04-15: L vs. [#2FLY/#6DD] Brandon Royval (16-7-0) via KO (Knee and Elbows) in 2:09 of round 1
2022-12-03: W vs. [#58FLY] Matt Schnell (16-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:44 of round 2
2022-03-26: W vs. [#53FLY] David Dvorak (20-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Alex Perez (0-3-0)
2024-03-02: L vs. [#8FLY] Muhammad Mokaev (12-0-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-07-30: L vs. [#1FLY/#3DD/#3P4P] Alexandre Pantoja (27-5-0) via Submission (Neck Crank) in 1:31 of round 1
2020-11-21: L vs. [#8BW/#10P4P] Deiveson Figueiredo (23-3-1) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:57 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Matheus Nicolau 378, Alex Perez 56
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#18] Ryan Spann (21-9-0, -193) vs. [#64] Bogdan Guskov (15-3-0, +158)

Last 3 Fights: Ryan Spann (1-2-0)
2023-08-26: L vs. [#17LHW] Anthony Smith (37-19-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-03-11: L vs. [#9LHW] Nikita Krylov (30-9-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 3:38 of round 1
2022-11-12: W vs. [*] Dominick Reyes (12-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:20 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Bogdan Guskov (2-1-0)
2024-02-10: W vs. [#120LHW] Zac Pauga (6-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:38 of round 1
2023-09-02: L vs. [#15LHW] Volkan Oezdemir (19-7-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:46 of round 1
2023-03-18: W vs. [#190HW+] Carlos Eduardo (20-11-0) via TKO in 0:25 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ryan Spann 245, Bogdan Guskov 77
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Flyweight (125)
[#15] Karine Silva (17-4-0, -147) vs. [#17] Ariane Lipski (17-8-0, +121)

Last 3 Fights: Karine Silva (3-0-0)
2023-08-19: W vs. [#34FLY] Maryna Moroz (11-6-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:59 of round 1
2023-06-03: W vs. [#57FLY] Ketlen Souza (13-4-0) via Submission (Kneebar) in 1:45 of round 1
2022-06-04: W vs. [*] Poliana Botelho (9-5-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 4:55 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Ariane Lipski (3-0-0)
2023-12-16: W vs. [#28FLY] Casey ONeill (9-2-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 1:18 of round 2
2023-07-01: W vs. [#33FLY] Melissa Gatto (8-2-2) via SD (28-29, 30-27, 29-28)
2023-03-11: W vs. [#25FLY] J.J. Aldrich (13-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Karine Silva 252, Ariane Lipski 133
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
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Good news — Another win for the “Safe” parlay last week!  With regards to the “Underdog” parlay, I find myself constantly wanting to tweak the criteria as it has the potential to get ridiculous.  It is meant to be a longshot option, but I prefer to stop short of insanely long odds.  Then again, the goal with the parlays isn’t just to make money, but to also have a good hit rate when compared to the betting odds.  Have any thoughts? Leave a comment!

Bouts considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

• Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event).  Reduces uncertainty.
• Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut).  More data makes WHR happy.
• Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight.  Further reduces uncertainty.

Now for the parlays…

Once again, we hit the safe parlay last week, but the others failed.  The smart parlay isn’t feeling so smart so far, and I may tighten the belt more on the requirements for that one in the near future.

This week, there is only 1 qualifying fight for the underdog and smart options (Oliveira/Tsarukyan), so going to skip those.

Post #4 in the series..  Here we go…

Bouts considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

• Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event).  Reduces uncertainty.
• Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut).  More data makes WHR happy.
• Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight.  Further reduces uncertainty.

Now for the parlays…

Light Heavyweight Championship (205)
[#1/#8P4P] Alex Pereira (9-2-0, -142) vs. [#4] Jamahal Hill (13-1-0, +116)
Alex Pereira is the All-Time #25 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.
Jamahal Hill is the All-Time #30 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Alex Pereira (2-1-0)
2023-11-11: W vs. [#5LHW] Jiri Prochazka (29-4-1) via TKO (Elbows) in 4:08 of round 2
2023-07-29: W vs. [#2LHW] Jan Blachowicz (29-10-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-04-08: L vs. [#1MW] Israel Adesanya (24-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:21 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Jamahal Hill (3-0-0)
2023-01-21: W vs. [*] Glover Teixeira (33-9-0) via UD (50-44, 50-44, 50-44)
2022-08-06: W vs. [#13LHW] Thiago Santos (22-12-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 2:31 of round 4
2022-02-19: W vs. [#11LHW] Johnny Walker (21-8-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:55 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alex Pereira 154, Jamahal Hill 448
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Strawweight Championship (115)
[#1/#1DD/#1P4P] Weili Zhang (24-3-0, -413) vs. [#2/#7DD/#9P4P] Xiaonan Yan (18-3-0, +307)
Weili Zhang is the All-Time #5 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Weili Zhang (3-0-0)
2023-08-19: W vs. [#4SW/#10DD] Amanda Lemos (14-3-1) via UD (50-43, 50-44, 49-45)
2022-11-12: W vs. [*] Carla Esparza (19-7-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:05 of round 2
2022-06-11: W vs. [*] Joanna Jedrzejczyk (16-5-0) via KO (Spinning Backfist) in 2:28 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Xiaonan Yan (2-1-0)
2023-05-06: W vs. [#5SW] Jessica Andrade (25-12-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:20 of round 1
2022-10-01: W vs. [#8SW] Mackenzie Dern (13-5-0) via MD (48-47, 48-47, 47-47)
2022-03-05: L vs. [#7SW] Marina Rodriguez (17-3-2) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Weili Zhang 238, Xiaonan Yan 343
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Weili Zhang leads 2-1
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Lightweight (155)
[#3/#10P4P] Justin Gaethje (25-4-0, -190) vs. [#3FW] Max Holloway (25-7-0, +155)
Justin Gaethje is the All-Time #12 ranked Lightweight fighter.
Max Holloway is the All-Time #8 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Justin Gaethje (2-1-0)
2023-07-29: W vs. [#4LW] Dustin Poirier (30-8-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 1:00 of round 2
2023-03-18: W vs. [#9LW] Rafael Fiziev (12-3-0) via MD (29-28, 28-28, 29-28)
2022-05-07: L vs. [#2LW/#6DD/#9P4P] Charles Oliveira (34-9-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:22 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Max Holloway (2-1-0)
2023-08-26: W vs. [*] Chan Sung Jung (17-8-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:23 of round 3
2023-04-15: W vs. [#8FW] Arnold Allen (19-3-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
2022-07-02: L vs. [#2FW/#8DD] Alexander Volkanovski (26-4-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Justin Gaethje 259, Max Holloway 231
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Last week was a good week.  Technically, two out of three parlays hit — the “underdog” and the “safe” options.  Jason Butcher, who was featured in the “underdog” parlay, withdrew from his fight. This reduced the underdog option to one fight, but it still would’ve cashed at a lesser payout.

I’m going to start tracking progress back to the start of the weekly 3-parlay posts and include that ongoing.  This is post #3.

Here we go…

Bouts considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

• Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event).  Reduces uncertainty.
• Both fighters must have at least 5 fights with at least 1 draw or 1 loss.  More data makes WHR happy.
• Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight.  Further reduces uncertainty.
• Major organizations only.  If it is a dead week, I’ll bend.  Other interesting bets may be posted in comments.

Now for the parlays…