Category Archives: MMA Ranks

Fight Matrix Program – UFC 262: Oliveira vs Chandler (05-15-2021)

10 May , 2021,
Jason

Lightweight Championship (155)
[#3] Charles Oliveira (30-8-0, -135) vs. [#6] Michael Chandler (22-5-0, +110)
Charles Oliveira is the All-Time #28 ranked Lightweight fighter.
Michael Chandler is the All-Time #17 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Charles Oliveira (3-0-0)
2020-12-12: W vs. [#4LW] Tony Ferguson (25-5-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)
2020-03-14: W vs. [#12LW] Kevin Lee (18-6-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 0:28 of round 3
2019-11-16: W vs. [#74LW] Jared Gordon (17-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:26 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Michael Chandler (3-0-0)
2021-01-23: W vs. [#8LW] Dan Hooker (20-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:30 of round 1
2020-08-07: W vs. [#89WW] Ben Henderson (28-10-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:09 of round 1
2019-12-29: W vs. [#50LW] Sidney Outlaw (15-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:59 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Charles Oliveira -135 54.67%
Elo K170 Charles Oliveira 2239.04 +94.08 60.58%
Elo Modified Charles Oliveira 2198.89 +95.72 60.32%
Glicko-1 Charles Oliveira 2303.34 +134.68 68.47%
WHR Charles Oliveira 2092.74 +66.46 57.53%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Charles Oliveira 154, Michael Chandler 112
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Charles Oliveira leads 1-0
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Lightweight (155)
[#4] Tony Ferguson (25-5-0, +122) vs. [#7] Beneil Dariush (20-4-1, -150)
Tony Ferguson is the All-Time #8 ranked Lightweight and #44 ranked Absolute fighter.
Beneil Dariush is the All-Time #48 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Tony Ferguson (1-2-0)
2020-12-12: L vs. [#3LW] Charles Oliveira (30-8-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)
2020-05-09: L vs. [#2LW/#9DD] Justin Gaethje (22-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:39 of round 5
2019-06-08: W vs. [#25WW] Donald Cerrone (36-16-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Beneil Dariush (3-0-0)
2021-02-06: W vs. [#14LW] Diego Ferreira (17-4-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2020-08-08: W vs. [#38LW] Scott Holtzman (14-5-0) via KO (Spinning Backfist) in 4:38 of round 1
2020-03-07: W vs. [#51LW] Drakkar Klose (11-2-1) via KO (Punch) in 1:00 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Beneil Dariush -150 57.11%
Elo K170 Beneil Dariush 2120.50 +14.65 51.67%
Elo Modified Tony Ferguson 2065.73 +35.67 53.90%
Glicko-1 Tony Ferguson 2158.68 +80.36 61.36%
WHR Tony Ferguson 1922.00 +2.59 50.30%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Tony Ferguson 154, Beneil Dariush 98
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Tony Ferguson leads 2-1
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Middleweight (185)
[#10] Jack Hermansson (21-6-0, -173) vs. [#26] Edmen Shahbazyan (11-1-0, +141)
Jack Hermansson is the All-Time #43 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jack Hermansson (1-2-0)
2020-12-05: L vs. [#4MW] Marvin Vettori (16-4-1) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-45)
2020-07-18: W vs. [#11MW] Kelvin Gastelum (16-7-0) via Submission (Heel Hook) in 1:18 of round 1
2019-09-28: L vs. [#9MW] Jared Cannonier (13-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:27 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Edmen Shahbazyan (2-1-0)
2020-08-01: L vs. [#8MW] Derek Brunson (22-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:26 of round 3
2019-11-02: W vs. [#22MW] Brad Tavares (18-6-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 2:27 of round 1
2019-07-06: W vs. [#126MW] Jack Marshman (23-10-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:12 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jack Hermansson -173 60.43%
Elo K170 Jack Hermansson 1907.99 +137.64 65.22%
Elo Modified Jack Hermansson 1931.70 +183.35 69.05%
Glicko-1 Jack Hermansson 2013.52 +249.44 80.78%
WHR Jack Hermansson 1874.77 +237.93 74.78%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jack Hermansson 161, Edmen Shahbazyan 287
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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The Curious Case of Ranking Anthony Johnson

May , 2021,
Jason

Rarely has a case of determining a fighter’s ranking been as interesting as Anthony Johnson, who recently came back after a 4+ year layoff.

Why?  Two main reasons.

  1. Lost his most recent fight prior to his comeback, albeit in a UFC championship match.
  2. Dominantly won his comeback fight (after almost getting finished himself) in Bellator, but against an unheralded opponent.

Prior to his comeback, Anthony Johnson was ranked as the #3 LHW here, with 1,225 points. Currently, he sits at #23, with only 192 points.  Some of these lost points remain in a “holding pen” so to speak — with the opportunity for Johnson to earn them back if he proves himself against a worthy opponent, soon.

#3 loses to #1.  Takes 4+ years off, returns to beat #82.  It’s probably safe to say that he’s somewhere between #3 and #82, but exactly where?

 

Other Sources

  • Tapology – Fan-vote driven, they rank Johnson at #23.  Hey, sound familiar?
  • Ranking MMA – #4.  Seems foolish, or entirely driven by one of the popular mathematical ranking systems.  We’ll get to that in a moment.

 

Fight Matrix Alternate Systems

  • WHR – #1 and pretty comfortably.  WHR does not punish for inactivity, but the decay of recent opponents can negatively affect a fighter’s rating.  However, Johnson hasn’t had any recent opponents prior to his comeback.
  • Glicko – #4.  Inactivity can cause a fighter’s rating to fluctuate more upon return, but Johnson’s inactivity extends way beyond the maximum fluctuation potential.. and he won on his comeback.
  • Elo – #3 (both).  Elo, the most simplistic system performs better than WHR, the most complicated.  I think Glicko gets this one the most correct.

 

Who’s Right?

Ranking fighters that return from inactivity is probably best left to the humans.  If Johnson was 41 instead of 37, I’d be tempted to rank him lower, regardless of how his recent fight went, but that’s largely irrelevant, or is it?  Seeing Johnson almost get finished himself, also makes me want to rank him lower, but he ended up winning.  Ultimately, I think a ranking in the #20 area is a fair position.  What do you think?

Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs Waterson (05-08-2021)

3 May , 2021,
Jason

Women Strawweight (115)
[#6] Marina Rodriguez (13-1-2, -175) vs. [#10] Michelle Waterson (18-8-0, +150)
Michelle Waterson is the All-Time #32 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Marina Rodriguez (1-1-1)
2021-01-23: W vs. [#15SW] Amanda Ribas (10-2-0) via TKO (Elbow and Punches) in 0:54 of round 2
2020-07-25: L vs. [#4SW/#9P4P] Carla Esparza (17-6-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
2019-12-07: D vs. [#9FLY] Cynthia Calvillo (9-2-1) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Michelle Waterson (1-2-0)
2020-09-12: W vs. [#12SW] Angela Hill (13-9-0) via SD (48-47, 49-46, 47-48)
2020-05-09: L vs. [#4SW/#9P4P] Carla Esparza (17-6-0) via SD (30-27, 27-30, 29-28)
2019-10-12: L vs. [#3SW/#7P4P] Joanna Jedrzejczyk (16-4-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Marina Rodriguez -175 61.40%
Elo K170 Marina Rodriguez 1654.55 +74.96 58.48%
Elo Modified Marina Rodriguez 1692.05 +119.79 62.82%
Glicko-1 Marina Rodriguez 1705.01 +165.47 72.16%
WHR Marina Rodriguez 1635.94 +147.45 66.23%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Marina Rodriguez 105, Michelle Waterson 238
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Marina Rodriguez leads 1-0
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Heavyweight (265)
[#24] Ben Rothwell (38-13-0, -111) vs. [#42] Philipe Lins (14-5-0, -112)
Ben Rothwell is the All-Time #48 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Ben Rothwell (2-1-0)
2020-10-10: L vs. [#11HW+] Marcin Tybura (21-6-0) via UD (29-27, 29-27, 29-27)
2020-05-13: W vs. [#25LHW] Ovince St. Preux (25-15-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2019-12-07: W vs. [*] Stefan Struve (29-13-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:57 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Philipe Lins (1-2-0)
2020-06-27: L vs. [#34HW+] Tanner Boser (19-7-1) via KO (Punches) in 2:41 of round 1
2020-05-13: L vs. [#31HW+] Andrei Arlovski (31-20-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2018-12-31: W vs. [*] Josh Copeland (18-7-1) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 0:30 of round 4

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Philipe Lins -112 50.10%
Elo K170 Ben Rothwell 1706.22 +211.47 72.43%
Elo Modified Ben Rothwell 1711.40 +145.70 65.43%
Glicko-1 Ben Rothwell 1755.28 +199.51 75.92%
WHR Ben Rothwell 1638.07 +92.14 60.37%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ben Rothwell 210, Philipe Lins 315
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Strawweight (115)
[#12] Angela Hill (13-9-0, +145) vs. [#15] Amanda Ribas (10-2-0, -177)

Last 3 Fights: Angela Hill (1-2-0)
2021-03-13: W vs. [#27SW] Ashley Yoder (8-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2020-09-12: L vs. [#10SW] Michelle Waterson (18-8-0) via SD (48-47, 49-46, 47-48)
2020-05-16: L vs. [#8SW] Claudia Gadelha (18-5-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Amanda Ribas (2-1-0)
2021-01-23: L vs. [#6SW] Marina Rodriguez (13-1-2) via TKO (Elbow and Punches) in 0:54 of round 2
2020-07-11: W vs. [#75FLY] Paige VanZant (8-5-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:21 of round 1
2020-03-14: W vs. [#35SW] Randa Markos (10-11-1) via UD (30-26, 30-25, 30-25)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Amanda Ribas -177 61.01%
Elo K170 Amanda Ribas 1502.41 +34.55 53.94%
Elo Modified Angela Hill 1567.54 +32.35 53.53%
Glicko-1 Angela Hill 1573.92 +65.20 59.27%
WHR Amanda Ribas 1533.76 +33.10 53.77%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Angela Hill 56, Amanda Ribas 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Amanda Ribas leads 2-1
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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs Prochazcka (05-01-2021)

26 Apr , 2021,
Jason

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#7] Dominick Reyes (12-2-0, +118) vs. [#10] Jiri Prochazka (27-3-1, -143)
Dominick Reyes is the All-Time #41 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Dominick Reyes (1-2-0)
2020-09-26: L vs. [#1LHW/#4P4P] Jan Blachowicz (28-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:36 of round 2
2020-02-08: L vs. [#2LHW/#5P4P] Jon Jones (26-1-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
2019-10-18: W vs. [#15MW] Chris Weidman (15-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:43 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Jiri Prochazka (3-0-0)
2020-07-11: W vs. [#15LHW] Volkan Oezdemir (17-5-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:49 of round 2
2019-12-31: W vs. [*] C.B. Dollaway (17-10-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:55 of round 1
2019-10-12: W vs. [#85HW+] Fabio Maldonado (27-15-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:49 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jiri Prochazka -143 56.19%
Elo K170 Jiri Prochazka 2006.71 +81.37 59.19%
Elo Modified Jiri Prochazka 1996.68 +99.00 60.67%
Glicko-1 Jiri Prochazka 2103.47 +163.93 71.98%
WHR Jiri Prochazka 2007.65 +166.04 68.11%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dominick Reyes 217, Jiri Prochazka 294
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#14] Cub Swanson (27-11-0, +163) vs. [#39] Giga Chikadze (13-2-0, -200)
Cub Swanson is the All-Time #19 ranked Featherweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Cub Swanson (2-1-0)
2020-12-12: W vs. [#47FW] Daniel Pineda (27-14-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:52 of round 2
2019-10-12: W vs. [*] Kron Gracie (5-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-05-04: L vs. [#19FW] Shane Burgos (13-2-0) via SD (30-27, 27-30, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Giga Chikadze (3-0-0)
2020-11-07: W vs. [#279FW] James Krause-Simmons (7-3-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 3:51 of round 1
2020-10-10: W vs. [#66FW] Omar Morales (10-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2020-05-16: W vs. [#110BW] Irwin Rivera (10-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Giga Chikadze -200 63.68%
Elo K170 Cub Swanson 1824.74 +149.92 66.48%
Elo Modified Cub Swanson 1869.47 +248.53 74.80%
Glicko-1 Cub Swanson 1902.64 +246.44 80.52%
WHR Cub Swanson 1817.23 +236.84 74.69%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cub Swanson 140, Giga Chikadze 175
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#32] Dustin Jacoby (14-5-0, +108) vs. [#38] Ion Cutelaba (15-6-0, -132)

Last 3 Fights: Dustin Jacoby (3-0-0)
2021-02-27: W vs. [#36LHW] Maxim Grishin (31-9-2) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2020-10-31: W vs. [#122LHW] Justin Ledet (9-4-0) via TKO (Leg Kicks and Punches) in 2:38 of round 1
2020-08-04: W vs. [#127LHW] Ty Flores (7-3-0) via UD ()

Last 3 Fights: Ion Cutelaba (1-2-0)
2020-10-24: L vs. [#13LHW] Magomed Ankalaev (15-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:19 of round 1
2020-02-29: L vs. [#13LHW] Magomed Ankalaev (15-1-0) via TKO (Punches and Kicks) in 0:38 of round 1
2019-09-28: W vs. [#58LHW] Khalil Rountree (8-6-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 2:35 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ion Cutelaba -132 54.20%
Elo K170 Dustin Jacoby 1694.24 +112.68 62.59%
Elo Modified Dustin Jacoby 1717.29 +110.56 61.87%
Glicko-1 Dustin Jacoby 1710.60 +74.96 60.62%
WHR Dustin Jacoby 1692.06 +115.54 62.90%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dustin Jacoby 63, Ion Cutelaba 189
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Fight Matrix Program – UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal II (04-24-2021)

19 Apr , 2021,
Jason

Welterweight Championship (170)
[#1/#1DD/#1P4P] Kamaru Usman (18-1-0, -414) vs. [#3] Jorge Masvidal (35-14-0, +313)
Kamaru Usman is the All-Time #4 ranked Welterweight and #34 ranked Absolute fighter.
Jorge Masvidal is the All-Time #22 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Kamaru Usman (3-0-0)
2021-02-13: W vs. [#4WW] Gilbert Burns (19-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:34 of round 3
2020-07-11: W vs. [#3WW] Jorge Masvidal (35-14-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)
2019-12-14: W vs. [#2WW] Colby Covington (16-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:10 of round 5

Last 3 Fights: Jorge Masvidal (2-1-0)
2020-07-11: L vs. [#1WW/#1DD/#1P4P] Kamaru Usman (18-1-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)
2019-11-02: W vs. [*] Nate Diaz (20-12-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 3
2019-07-06: W vs. [*] Ben Askren (19-2-0) via KO (Flying Knee) in 0:05 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Kamaru Usman -414 76.88%
Elo K170 Kamaru Usman 2482.67 +307.83 80.32%
Elo Modified Kamaru Usman 2412.54 +251.86 75.08%
Glicko-1 Kamaru Usman 2517.63 +232.41 79.21%
WHR Kamaru Usman 2265.98 +230.27 74.12%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kamaru Usman 70, Jorge Masvidal 287
Previous Match-up Record: Kamaru Usman leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Kamaru Usman leads 1-0
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Women Strawweight Championship (115)
[#1/#2DD/#2P4P] Weili Zhang (21-1-0, -194) vs. [#2/#5DD/#5P4P] Rose Namajunas (9-4-0, +160)
Weili Zhang is the All-Time #15 ranked Women’s fighter.
Rose Namajunas is the All-Time #14 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Weili Zhang (3-0-0)
2020-03-07: W vs. [#3SW/#8P4P] Joanna Jedrzejczyk (16-4-0) via SD (47-48, 48-47, 48-47)
2019-08-31: W vs. [#2FLY/#8DD/#6P4P] Jessica Andrade (21-8-0) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 0:42 of round 1
2019-03-02: W vs. [#9SW] Tecia Torres (12-5-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Rose Namajunas (2-1-0)
2020-07-11: W vs. [#2FLY/#8DD/#6P4P] Jessica Andrade (21-8-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-05-11: L vs. [#2FLY/#8DD/#6P4P] Jessica Andrade (21-8-0) via KO (Slam) in 2:58 of round 2
2018-04-07: W vs. [#3SW/#8P4P] Joanna Jedrzejczyk (16-4-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Weili Zhang -194 63.17%
Elo K170 Weili Zhang 1925.02 +80.15 59.05%
Elo Modified Weili Zhang 1847.91 +53.39 55.82%
Glicko-1 Weili Zhang 1881.59 +131.21 68.03%
WHR Weili Zhang 1794.96 +120.85 63.46%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Weili Zhang 413, Rose Namajunas 287
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Rose Namajunas leads 4-3
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Women Flyweight Championship (125)
[#1/#3DD/#3P4P] Valentina Shevchenko (20-3-0, -418) vs. [#2/#8DD/#6P4P] Jessica Andrade (21-8-0, +315)
Valentina Shevchenko is the All-Time #5 ranked Women’s fighter.
Jessica Andrade is the All-Time #18 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Valentina Shevchenko (3-0-0)
2020-11-21: W vs. [#4FLY] Jennifer Maia (18-7-1) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2020-02-08: W vs. [#3FLY/#10DD] Katlyn Chookagian (15-4-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 1:03 of round 3
2019-08-10: W vs. [#5FLY] Liz Carmouche (15-7-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)

Last 3 Fights: Jessica Andrade (1-2-0)
2020-10-17: W vs. [#3FLY/#10DD] Katlyn Chookagian (15-4-0) via KO (Punches to the Body) in 4:55 of round 1
2020-07-11: L vs. [#2SW/#5DD/#5P4P] Rose Namajunas (9-4-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-08-31: L vs. [#1SW/#2DD/#2P4P] Weili Zhang (21-1-0) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 0:42 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Valentina Shevchenko -418 77.00%
Elo K170 Valentina Shevchenko 1941.72 +157.10 67.21%
Elo Modified Valentina Shevchenko 1941.84 +124.77 63.32%
Glicko-1 Valentina Shevchenko 1954.85 +114.97 65.97%
WHR Valentina Shevchenko 1939.97 +200.06 71.38%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Valentina Shevchenko 154, Jessica Andrade 189
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Valentina Shevchenko leads 4-1
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