Well, it was a bad week for the parlays… and the “smart” option has been looking pretty stupid. I’m adding a new requirement for the bets — I must have odds from at least three books to consider a fight. I noticed last week, that a fight only had odds from one book, and it had incredibly wild swings — probably due to a limited amount of betters taking interest in that fight and/or one rich guy spiking the punch bowl. This will limit the parlays tremendously, so I will now start posting individual bets if there is only one viable option. In addition, I’m also going to limit the “smart” parlays to 3 fighters (was 4).
Bouts considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
Now for the options…
“The Underdog” bet/parlay
Historical Hit Rate: 1 of 4 (25.0%) – Expected Hit Rate by Odds: 12.5%, WHR: 29.9% – Bankroll: -$135.00
“The Safe” bet/parlay
Historical Hit Rate: 3 of 5 (60%) – Expected Hit Rate by Odds: 42.7%, WHR: 60.1% – Bankroll: $185.27
“The Smart” bet/parlay
Historical Hit Rate: 0 of 4 (0%) – Expected Hit Rate by Odds: 11.4%, WHR: 36.1% – Bankroll: -$400.00
Other things to consider….
Got some Rizin odds late….
Kanehara vs. Suzuki is a worthy add to the Underdog picks… Soo Chul Kim vs. Taichi Nakajima a worthy add to the Smart picks..
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