Pádraig Sheehan never puts money on the moneyline. He decided on this two years ago and has not broken the rule once. He’s thirty-two, works in a warehouse in Limerick, and he watches UFC every Saturday night on the sofa with his brother. His brother backs the outright winner, but he usually loses. Pádraig focuses on the method of victory. Knockout, submission or decision. Every single time. He started doing it after he realised that backing a well-known winner to win by decision, when they were priced as a strong favourite, gave him a better return than the outright. The fighter won in round two by TKO. He’s been reading finish rates ever since. He doesn’t always have the right answer. He always has a number for every fight, and he always gets it from ufcstats.com, which he opens on his phone while the preliminary card is still running.

The global MMA market generated an estimated $1.5 billion in handle during 2023, according to industry tracking by GBGC, and that figure has continued to grow as legal sports activity has expanded in North America and across Asia-Pacific. The GBGC figure only includes licensed markets. Analysts have always estimated that unlicensed activity runs at roughly the same size.

Keep Reading