Fight Matrix Program – UFC 299: O’Malley vs. Vera 2 (03-09-2024)

Mar 4, 2024
Jason

Bantamweight Championship (135)
[#1/#9DD/#10P4P] Sean OMalley (17-1-0, -279) vs. [#5] Marlon Vera (24-8-1, +222)
Sean OMalley is the All-Time #12 ranked Bantamweight fighter.
Marlon Vera is the All-Time #34 ranked Bantamweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Sean OMalley (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2023-08-19: W vs. [#3BW] Aljamain Sterling (23-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:51 of round 2
2022-10-22: W vs. [#8BW] Petr Yan (16-5-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2022-07-02: NC vs. [#12BW] Pedro Munhoz (20-8-0)

Last 3 Fights: Marlon Vera (2-1-0)
2023-08-19: W vs. [#12BW] Pedro Munhoz (20-8-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-03-25: L vs. [#4BW] Cory Sandhagen (17-4-0) via SD (50-45, 49-46, 47-48)
2022-08-13: W vs. [*] Dominick Cruz (24-4-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 2:17 of round 4

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Sean OMalley -279 70.32%
Elo K170 Sean OMalley 2123.84 +52.00 57.43%
Elo Modified Marlon Vera 2085.54 +28.81 54.14%
Glicko-1 Marlon Vera 2156.78 +23.83 53.42%
WHR Sean OMalley 1962.01 +2.97 50.43%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sean OMalley 203, Marlon Vera 203
Previous Match-up Record: Marlon Vera leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#4] Dustin Poirier (29-8-0, +175) vs. [#15] Benoit St. Denis (13-1-0, -215)
Dustin Poirier is the All-Time #4 ranked Lightweight and #30 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Dustin Poirier (1-2-0)
2023-07-29: L vs. [#3LW/#8P4P] Justin Gaethje (25-4-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 1:00 of round 2
2022-11-12: W vs. [*] Michael Chandler (23-8-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:00 of round 3
2021-12-11: L vs. [#2LW/#5DD/#7P4P] Charles Oliveira (34-9-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:02 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Benoit St. Denis (3-0-0)
2023-11-11: W vs. [#38LW] Matt Frevola (11-4-1) via KO (Head Kick) in 1:31 of round 1
2023-09-02: W vs. [#51LW] Thiago Moises (17-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:44 of round 2
2023-07-01: W vs. [#83LW] Ismael Bonfim (19-4-0) via SUB in 4:48 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Benoit St. Denis -215 65.24%
Elo K170 Dustin Poirier 2238.03 +263.03 81.97%
Elo Modified Dustin Poirier 2188.08 +223.38 78.35%
Glicko-1 Dustin Poirier 2247.43 +171.99 72.91%
WHR Dustin Poirier 2004.99 +68.90 59.79%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dustin Poirier 224, Benoit St. Denis 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#14] Kevin Holland (25-10-0, -132) vs. [#18] Michael Page (21-2-0, +110)

Last 3 Fights: Kevin Holland (2-1-0)
2023-09-16: L vs. [#12WW] Jack Della Maddalena (16-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-07-29: W vs. [#42WW] Michael Chiesa (16-7-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 2:39 of round 1
2023-04-08: W vs. [#32WW] Santiago Ponzinibbio (29-7-0) via KO (Punch) in 3:16 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Michael Page (2-1-0)
2023-03-10: W vs. [#56WW] Goiti Yamauchi (28-6-0) via TKO (Leg Kick) in 0:26 of round 1
2022-05-13: L vs. [#24WW] Logan Storley (15-2-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 49-46)
2021-10-01: W vs. [#23MW] Douglas Lima (33-11-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Kevin Holland -132 54.43%
Elo K170 Michael Page 1997.58 +99.52 63.94%
Elo Modified Michael Page 1992.24 +51.37 57.34%
Glicko-1 Michael Page 2077.22 +52.73 57.53%
WHR Michael Page 1936.14 +89.44 62.59%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kevin Holland 175, Michael Page 365
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#6] Gilbert Burns (22-6-0, +136) vs. [#12] Jack Della Maddalena (16-2-0, -164)
Gilbert Burns is the All-Time #18 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Gilbert Burns (2-1-0)
2023-05-06: L vs. [#3WW] Belal Muhammad (23-3-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)
2023-04-08: W vs. [*] Jorge Masvidal (35-17-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-01-21: W vs. [#17WW] Neil Magny (29-11-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 4:15 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Jack Della Maddalena (3-0-0)
2023-09-16: W vs. [#14WW] Kevin Holland (25-10-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-07-15: W vs. [#84WW] Bassil Hafez (8-4-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-02-11: W vs. [#23WW] Randy Brown (18-5-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:13 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jack Della Maddalena -164 59.45%
Elo K170 Gilbert Burns 2169.71 +129.48 67.82%
Elo Modified Gilbert Burns 2137.94 +221.69 78.18%
Glicko-1 Gilbert Burns 2202.26 +254.28 81.21%
WHR Gilbert Burns 2003.51 +183.94 74.24%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Gilbert Burns 308, Jack Della Maddalena 175
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#8] Petr Yan (16-5-0, -116) vs. [#11] Yadong Song (21-8-1, -105)
Petr Yan is the All-Time #10 ranked Bantamweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Petr Yan (0-3-0)
2023-03-11: L vs. [#2BW/#10DD] Merab Dvalishvili (17-4-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2022-10-22: L vs. [#1BW/#9DD/#10P4P] Sean OMalley (17-1-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2022-04-09: L vs. [#3BW] Aljamain Sterling (23-4-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Yadong Song (2-1-0)
2023-12-09: W vs. [#19BW] Chris Gutierrez (20-6-2) via UD (50-44, 50-45, 50-45)
2023-04-29: W vs. [#32BW] Ricky Simon (21-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:10 of round 5
2022-09-17: L vs. [#4BW] Cory Sandhagen (17-4-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 4

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Petr Yan -116 51.18%
Elo K170 Yadong Song 2024.36 +132.82 68.24%
Elo Modified Petr Yan 1992.28 +5.24 50.75%
Glicko-1 Petr Yan 2067.26 +36.08 55.17%
WHR Petr Yan 1956.82 +75.73 60.73%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Petr Yan 364, Yadong Song 91
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Petr Yan leads 1-0
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#6] Curtis Blaydes (17-4-0, -112) vs. [#7] Jailton Almeida (20-2-0, -109)
Curtis Blaydes is the All-Time #24 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Curtis Blaydes (2-1-0)
2023-04-22: L vs. [#4HW+] Sergei Pavlovich (18-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:08 of round 1
2022-07-23: W vs. [#3HW+] Tom Aspinall (14-3-0) via TKO (Knee Injury) in 0:15 of round 1
2022-03-26: W vs. [#31LHW] Chris Daukaus (12-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:17 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Jailton Almeida (3-0-0)
2023-11-04: W vs. [#15HW+] Derrick Lewis (27-12-0) via UD (50-44, 50-44, 50-45)
2023-05-13: W vs. [#13HW+] Jairzinho Rozenstruik (14-5-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:43 of round 1
2023-01-21: W vs. [#116HW+] Shamil Abdurakhimov (20-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:56 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Curtis Blaydes -112 50.32%
Elo K170 Curtis Blaydes 2020.70 +41.89 56.00%
Elo Modified Curtis Blaydes 2030.35 +57.23 58.16%
Glicko-1 Curtis Blaydes 2102.10 +39.52 55.66%
WHR Jailton Almeida 1962.38 +31.29 54.49%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Curtis Blaydes 322, Jailton Almeida 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Jailton Almeida leads 3-2
.

Women Flyweight (125)
[#6] Maycee Barber (13-2-0, -209) vs. [*] Katlyn Chookagian (18-5-0, +170)
Katlyn Chookagian is the All-Time #39 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Maycee Barber (3-0-0)
2023-06-24: W vs. [#6SW] Amanda Ribas (12-4-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 3:42 of round 2
2023-03-25: W vs. [#18FLY] Andrea Lee (13-9-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
2022-07-02: W vs. [*] Jessica Eye (15-11-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Katlyn Chookagian (2-1-0)
2022-10-22: L vs. [#3FLY/#8DD/#8P4P] Manon Fiorot (11-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-05-14: W vs. [#6SW] Amanda Ribas (12-4-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2022-01-15: W vs. [#10FLY] Jennifer Maia (21-10-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Maycee Barber -209 64.61%
Elo K170 Maycee Barber 1758.14 +12.78 51.84%
Elo Modified Katlyn Chookagian 1714.77 +4.79 50.69%
Glicko-1 Maycee Barber 1698.50 +16.54 52.38%
WHR Katlyn Chookagian 1664.57 +22.73 53.27%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Maycee Barber 259, Katlyn Chookagian 504
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Maycee Barber leads 2-1
.

Lightweight (155)
[#5] Mateusz Gamrot (23-2-0, -449) vs. [#9] Rafael dos Anjos (32-15-0, +332)
Mateusz Gamrot is the All-Time #45 ranked Lightweight fighter.
Rafael dos Anjos is the All-Time #9 ranked Lightweight and #26 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Mateusz Gamrot (2-1-0)
2023-09-23: W vs. [#10LW] Rafael Fiziev (12-3-0) via TKO (Knee Injury) in 2:03 of round 2
2023-03-04: W vs. [#12LW] Jalin Turner (14-7-0) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 29-28)
2022-10-22: L vs. [#8LW] Beneil Dariush (22-6-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Rafael dos Anjos (1-2-0)
2023-08-12: L vs. [#10WW] Vicente Luque (22-9-1) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
2022-12-03: W vs. [#92MW] Bryan Barberena (18-11-0) via Submission (Neck Crank) in 3:20 of round 2
2022-07-09: L vs. [#10LW] Rafael Fiziev (12-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:18 of round 5

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Mateusz Gamrot -449 77.93%
Elo K170 Mateusz Gamrot 2141.40 +241.00 80.02%
Elo Modified Mateusz Gamrot 2089.98 +219.81 78.00%
Glicko-1 Mateusz Gamrot 2161.30 +251.52 80.97%
WHR Mateusz Gamrot 2054.92 +222.57 78.27%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mateusz Gamrot 168, Rafael dos Anjos 210
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Mateusz Gamrot leads 2-0
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#12] Pedro Munhoz (20-8-0, +185) vs. [#31] Kyler Phillips (11-2-0, -230)
Pedro Munhoz is the All-Time #29 ranked Bantamweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Pedro Munhoz (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2023-08-19: L vs. [#5BW] Marlon Vera (24-8-1) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-04-15: W vs. [#19BW] Chris Gutierrez (20-6-2) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-07-02: NC vs. [#1BW/#9DD/#10P4P] Sean OMalley (17-1-0)

Last 3 Fights: Kyler Phillips (2-1-0)
2023-08-05: W vs. [#48BW] Raoni Barcelos (18-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2022-02-12: W vs. [#335FW] Marcelo Rojo (17-10-0) via Submission (Triangle Armbar) in 1:48 of round 3
2021-07-24: L vs. [#108BW] Raulian Paiva (21-5-1) via MD (29-28, 28-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Kyler Phillips -230 66.51%
Elo K170 Pedro Munhoz 1857.59 +107.87 65.04%
Elo Modified Pedro Munhoz 1863.12 +56.24 58.02%
Glicko-1 Pedro Munhoz 1913.48 +48.28 56.90%
WHR Kyler Phillips 1783.64 +5.88 50.85%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Pedro Munhoz 203, Kyler Phillips 217
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#22] Michel Pereira (30-11-0, -150) vs. [#40] Michal Oleksiejczuk (20-6-0, +124)

Last 3 Fights: Michel Pereira (3-0-0)
2023-10-14: W vs. [#52MW] Andre Petroski (10-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:06 of round 1
2022-05-21: W vs. [#32WW] Santiago Ponzinibbio (29-7-0) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 29-28)
2022-01-22: W vs. [#81WW] Andre Fialho (16-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Michal Oleksiejczuk (2-1-0)
2023-08-26: W vs. [#73MW] Chidi Njokuani (22-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:16 of round 1
2023-04-29: L vs. [#27MW] Caio Borralho (15-1-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:49 of round 2
2022-12-17: W vs. [#84MW] Cody Brundage (10-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:16 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Michel Pereira -150 57.33%
Elo K170 Michel Pereira 1954.85 +209.25 76.93%
Elo Modified Michel Pereira 1915.88 +151.55 70.52%
Glicko-1 Michel Pereira 1949.80 +141.11 69.26%
WHR Michel Pereira 1767.95 +47.52 56.80%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Michel Pereira 147, Michal Oleksiejczuk 196
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#20] Philipe Lins (17-5-0, +112) vs. [#25] Ion Cutelaba (17-9-1, -136)

Last 3 Fights: Philipe Lins (3-0-0)
2023-06-03: W vs. [#34LHW] Maxim Grishin (33-10-2) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2023-02-18: W vs. [#46LHW] Ovince St. Preux (26-17-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:49 of round 1
2022-04-23: W vs. [#37LHW] Marcin Prachnio (17-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Ion Cutelaba (1-2-0)
2023-04-15: W vs. [#63LHW] Tanner Boser (21-10-1) via TKO (Punches) in 2:05 of round 1
2022-11-19: L vs. [#30LHW] Kennedy Nzechukwu (12-4-0) via TKO (Flying Knee and Punches) in 1:02 of round 2
2022-09-10: L vs. [#11LHW] Johnny Walker (21-8-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:37 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ion Cutelaba -136 54.99%
Elo K170 Philipe Lins 1774.67 +228.08 78.80%
Elo Modified Philipe Lins 1802.40 +191.03 75.02%
Glicko-1 Philipe Lins 1819.73 +177.63 73.55%
WHR Philipe Lins 1762.82 +147.94 70.09%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Philipe Lins 280, Ion Cutelaba 329
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Ion Cutelaba leads 1-0
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#186] Josh Parisian (15-7-0, +253) vs. [#269] Robelis Despaigne (4-0-0, -330)

Last 3 Fights: Josh Parisian (1-2-0)
2023-08-12: L vs. [#68HW+] Martin Buday (13-2-0) via Submission (Kimura) in 4:11 of round 1
2023-02-18: L vs. [#104HW+] Jamal Pogues (11-4-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-06-25: W vs. [*] Alan Baudot (7-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:04 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Robelis Despaigne (3-0-0)
2023-12-03: W vs. [#582HW+] Miles Banks (1-1-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:04 of round 1
2023-09-24: W vs. [NA] Stevie Payne (0-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:03 of round 1
2023-06-25: W vs. [NA] Travis Gregoire (1-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:12 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Robelis Despaigne -330 73.03%
Elo K170 Josh Parisian 1288.50 +17.26 52.48%
Elo Modified Robelis Despaigne 1351.13 +43.89 56.28%
Glicko-1 Robelis Despaigne 1310.43 +10.67 51.54%
WHR Robelis Despaigne 1256.10 +10.15 51.46%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Josh Parisian 210, Robelis Despaigne 97
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Flyweight (125)
[#22] Asu Almabaev (18-2-0, -525) vs. [#77] C.J. Vergara (12-4-1, +382)

Last 3 Fights: Asu Almabaev (3-0-0)
2023-08-05: W vs. [#62FLY] Ode Osbourne (12-6-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:11 of round 2
2022-11-26: W vs. [#1964BW] Kenneth Maningat (6-4-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:30 of round 2
2022-07-30: W vs. [#116FLY] Zach Makovsky (21-12-0) via SD ()

Last 3 Fights: C.J. Vergara (2-1-0)
2023-07-29: W vs. [#227FLY] Vinicius Salvador (14-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-03-25: W vs. [#446FLY] Daniel da Silva (12-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:04 of round 2
2022-10-15: L vs. [#24FLY] Tatsuro Taira (15-0-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:19 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Asu Almabaev -525 80.19%
Elo K170 Asu Almabaev 1795.27 +239.02 79.83%
Elo Modified Asu Almabaev 1751.19 +191.74 75.10%
Glicko-1 Asu Almabaev 1783.59 +215.63 77.58%
WHR Asu Almabaev 1695.14 +200.86 76.06%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Asu Almabaev 217, C.J. Vergara 224
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Asu Almabaev leads 1-0
.

Women Flyweight (125)
[#20] Joanne Wood (16-8-0, +181) vs. [#33] Maryna Moroz (11-5-0, -225)

Last 3 Fights: Joanne Wood (1-2-0)
2023-03-18: W vs. [#17FLY] Luana Carolina (10-4-0) via SD (29-28, 30-27, 28-29)
2022-03-26: L vs. [#1FLY/#4DD/#2P4P] Alexa Grasso (16-3-1) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:57 of round 1
2021-11-20: L vs. [#8FLY] Taila Santos (19-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:49 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Maryna Moroz (1-2-0)
2023-08-19: L vs. [#14FLY] Karine Silva (17-4-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:59 of round 1
2022-11-19: L vs. [#10FLY] Jennifer Maia (21-10-1) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2022-03-05: W vs. [*] Mariya Agapova (10-4-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 3:27 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Maryna Moroz -225 66.04%
Elo K170 Joanne Wood 1482.76 +47.54 56.80%
Elo Modified Maryna Moroz 1469.79 +8.71 51.25%
Glicko-1 Maryna Moroz 1437.96 +43.29 56.20%
WHR Joanne Wood 1438.36 +36.67 55.26%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Joanne Wood 357, Maryna Moroz 203
Previous Match-up Record: Maryna Moroz leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Joanne Wood leads 1-0
.

Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.

Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Sean OMalley
Highest Stored DD Rating: Sean OMalley
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Sean OMalley vs. Marlon Vera
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Sean OMalley vs. Marlon Vera
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Great [****]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Very Large [****]
Run Date: 2024-3-6

Completion time: 2024-03-06T14:56:30.3377943-05:00

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