This Week’s WHR Parlays…

I know I said in my last post, I was going to cover the rest of March in that one, but changed my mind.

In this post, I’m going to cover this week’s fights and will now feature three different parlays:

Bouts considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

• Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event).  Reduces uncertainty.
• Both fighters must have at least 5 fights with at least 1 draw or 1 loss.  More data makes WHR happy.
• Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight.  Further reduces uncertainty.
• Major organizations only.  I may leave comments on interesting bets for other organizations.

Now for the parlays…

“The Underdog” parlay

• Fighters listed are betting underdogs, but WHR favorites.
• Fighters with “negative” odds are not listed.  This can sometimes happen in pick’em fights.
• All fighters who qualify will be listed.  Parlay could be huge!

“The Safe” parlay

• Fighters listed have a higher chance to win per WHR than implied probability (odds).
• Fighters listed have at least a 75% chance of winning per WHR.
  • If I can’t get at least two fighters, I’ll bend a little on this percentage.
• Goal is to have a total parlay WHR win percentage of 50% or higher.

“The Smart” parlay

• Fighters listed have the highest difference between WHR win probability and implied probability (odds).
• I’ll sort all qualifying fighters by that difference and cut the parlay off where it drops off significantly.
  • I’m going to aim for >15% win difference and 2-4 fighters.

Other things to consider….

• Our odds are “composite” odds — an average of many major sportsbooks.
• This is not “vanilla” WHR (although it is very advanced by default).  Read the FAQ for more info.
• As WHR is an Elo-variant, I’m using the same win probability formula as is the standard in Elo.  If one of you math nerds has a better approach, please let me know.
• “Odds Win %” does not factor in the juice.
• If the “FM Agree” column is “YES”, the standard ratings agree with WHR that the underdog is indeed the underdog and vice-versa.
• Don’t blame us if you lose money.  Gamble at your own risk.