Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev (03-02-2024)

Feb 26, 2024
Jason

Heavyweight (265)
[#13] Jairzinho Rozenstruik (13-5-0, +119) vs. [#37] Shamil Gaziev (12-0-0, -146)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik is the All-Time #47 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jairzinho Rozenstruik (1-2-0)
2023-05-13: L vs. [#7HW+] Jailton Almeida (20-2-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:43 of round 1
2022-12-10: W vs. [#30LHW] Chris Daukaus (12-7-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:23 of round 1
2022-06-04: L vs. [#5HW+] Alexander Volkov (37-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:12 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Shamil Gaziev (3-0-0)
2023-12-16: W vs. [#69HW+] Martin Buday (13-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:56 of round 2
2023-09-19: W vs. [#146HW+] Greg Velasco (6-1-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:38 of round 1
2023-02-18: W vs. [#47HW+] Darko Stosic (20-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:54 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Shamil Gaziev -146 56.51%
Elo K170 Shamil Gaziev 1753.20 +13.23 51.51%
Elo Modified Jairzinho Rozenstruik 1760.24 +25.72 52.81%
Glicko-1 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 1814.26 +25.36 53.64%
WHR Shamil Gaziev 1740.76 +23.48 52.68%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jairzinho Rozenstruik 294, Shamil Gaziev 77
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#27] Vitor Petrino (10-0-0, -287) vs. [#62] Tyson Pedro (10-4-0, +224)

Last 3 Fights: Vitor Petrino (3-0-0)
2023-11-04: W vs. [#51LHW] Modestas Bukauskas (15-6-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:03 of round 2
2023-07-08: W vs. [#36LHW] Marcin Prachnio (17-7-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 3:42 of round 3
2023-03-11: W vs. [#155LHW] Anton Turkalj (8-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)

Last 3 Fights: Tyson Pedro (2-1-0)
2023-09-09: W vs. [#155LHW] Anton Turkalj (8-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:12 of round 1
2023-02-11: L vs. [#51LHW] Modestas Bukauskas (15-6-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-08-20: W vs. [*] Harry Hunsucker (7-6-0) via TKO (Body Kick and Punches) in 1:05 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Vitor Petrino -287 70.61%
Elo K170 Vitor Petrino 1740.71 +207.33 72.06%
Elo Modified Vitor Petrino 1761.62 +200.28 70.62%
Glicko-1 Vitor Petrino 1786.69 +167.98 72.45%
WHR Vitor Petrino 1826.11 +241.20 75.06%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Vitor Petrino 119, Tyson Pedro 175
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Vitor Petrino leads 2-1
.

Middleweight (185)
[#61] Eryk Anders (15-8-0, -331) vs. [#205] Jamie Pickett (13-10-0, +251)

Last 3 Fights: Eryk Anders (1-2-0)
2023-06-10: L vs. [#39MW] Marc-Andre Barriault (17-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-12-03: W vs. [#77MW] Kyle Daukaus (14-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:45 of round 2
2022-05-21: L vs. [#32MW] Jun Yong Park (17-6-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Jamie Pickett (0-3-0)
2023-08-12: L vs. [#130MW] Josh Fremd (11-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-03-04: L vs. [#124MW] Bo Nickal (5-0-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 2:54 of round 1
2022-09-10: L vs. [#155MW] Denis Tiuliulin (10-9-0) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 4:52 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Eryk Anders -331 72.94%
Elo K170 Eryk Anders 1545.43 +370.68 84.47%
Elo Modified Eryk Anders 1606.85 +357.24 82.69%
Glicko-1 Eryk Anders 1650.23 +438.85 92.59%
WHR Eryk Anders 1594.96 +385.96 85.36%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Eryk Anders 266, Jamie Pickett 203
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Eryk Anders leads 1-0
.

Flyweight (125)
[#8] Muhammad Mokaev (11-0-0, -270) vs. [*] Alex Perez (24-7-0, +212)
Alex Perez is the All-Time #35 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Muhammad Mokaev (3-0-0)
2023-10-21: W vs. [#21FLY] Tim Elliott (20-13-1) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 3:03 of round 3
2023-03-18: W vs. [#90FLY] Jafel Filho (15-3-0) via Submission (Neck Crank) in 4:32 of round 3
2022-10-22: W vs. [#176FLY] Malcolm Gordon (14-8-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:26 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Alex Perez (1-2-0)
2022-07-30: L vs. [#1FLY/#3P4P] Alexandre Pantoja (27-5-0) via Submission (Neck Crank) in 1:31 of round 1
2020-11-21: L vs. [#10BW] Deiveson Figueiredo (22-3-1) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:57 of round 1
2020-06-06: W vs. [*] Jussier Formiga (24-8-0) via TKO (Leg Kick) in 4:06 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Muhammad Mokaev -270 69.48%
Elo K170 Muhammad Mokaev 1837.27 +68.03 57.71%
Elo Modified Muhammad Mokaev 1826.38 +68.40 57.43%
Glicko-1 Muhammad Mokaev 1890.50 +118.97 66.48%
WHR Muhammad Mokaev 1802.79 +144.96 65.98%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Muhammad Mokaev 133, Alex Perez 581
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Flyweight (125)
[#24] Steve Erceg (11-1-0, -316) vs. [#42] Matt Schnell (16-8-0, +242)

Last 3 Fights: Steve Erceg (3-0-0)
2023-11-11: W vs. [#76FLY] Alessandro Costa (13-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-06-10: W vs. [#49FLY] David Dvorak (20-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2023-02-11: W vs. [#847FLY] Soichiro Hirai (4-4-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:46 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Matt Schnell (1-2-0)
2022-12-03: L vs. [#9FLY] Matheus Nicolau (19-3-1) via KO (Punches) in 1:44 of round 2
2022-07-16: W vs. [#243FLY] Su Mudaerji (16-6-0) via Technical Submission (Triangle Choke) in 4:24 of round 2
2022-05-07: L vs. [#2FLY] Brandon Royval (16-7-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:14 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Steve Erceg -316 72.20%
Elo K170 Steve Erceg 1709.09 +126.76 64.09%
Elo Modified Steve Erceg 1707.03 +163.84 67.20%
Glicko-1 Steve Erceg 1715.46 +172.34 72.95%
WHR Steve Erceg 1672.42 +198.67 71.25%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Steve Erceg 112, Matt Schnell 455
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#17] Umar Nurmagomedov (16-0-0, -869) vs. [#91] Bekzat Almakhan (15-1-0, +537)

Last 3 Fights: Umar Nurmagomedov (3-0-0)
2023-01-14: W vs. [#49BW] Raoni Barcelos (18-5-0) via KO (Body Kick and Punch) in 4:40 of round 1
2022-06-25: W vs. [#25FLY] Nathan Maness (15-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-25, 30-26)
2022-03-05: W vs. [#160BW] Brian Kelleher (24-15-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:15 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Bekzat Almakhan (3-0-0)
2023-11-18: W vs. [#448BW] Yan Ferraz (15-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:58 of round 3
2023-07-22: W vs. [#169FLY] Mateus Rodrigues Gloria (12-5-2) via KO (Head Kick and Punches) in 0:07 of round 1
2023-02-25: W vs. [#340BW] Mauro Mastromarini (18-3-0) via in 5:00 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Umar Nurmagomedov -869 85.10%
Elo K170 Umar Nurmagomedov 1979.30 +257.09 76.39%
Elo Modified Umar Nurmagomedov 1980.79 +262.47 75.93%
Glicko-1 Umar Nurmagomedov 2042.07 +227.14 78.71%
WHR Umar Nurmagomedov 1940.10 +254.77 76.20%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Umar Nurmagomedov 413, Bekzat Almakhan 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#64] Vinicius de Oliveira (20-3-0, -174) vs. [#303FW] Yanis Ghemmouri (12-2-0, +143)

Last 3 Fights: Vinicius de Oliveira (2-1-0)
2023-09-26: W vs. [#117BW] Victor Madrigal (15-5-0) via KO (Punch) in 3:02 of round 1
2023-03-18: W vs. [#456BW] Hikaru Yoshino (12-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:02 of round 1
2022-07-02: L vs. [#122BW] Ali Taleb (9-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:30 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Yanis Ghemmouri (2-1-0)
2023-09-02: L vs. [#94FW] William Gomis (13-2-0) via TKO (Body Kick) in 2:20 of round 3
2023-06-23: W vs. [#837FW] Mehmosh Raza (10-6-0) via KO (Knee) in 1:05 of round 2
2022-12-12: W vs. [#322BW] Bair Shtepin (11-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:44 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Vinicius de Oliveira -174 60.67%
Elo K170 Vinicius de Oliveira 1705.03 +206.82 72.01%
Elo Modified Vinicius de Oliveira 1716.94 +278.56 77.20%
Glicko-1 Vinicius de Oliveira 1749.56 +307.14 85.42%
WHR Vinicius de Oliveira 1679.67 +232.77 74.33%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Vinicius de Oliveira 158, Yanis Ghemmouri 182
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#44] Javid Basharat (14-0-0, -477) vs. [#111] Aiemann Zahabi (10-2-0, +338)

Last 3 Fights: Javid Basharat (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2023-10-21: NC vs. [#43BW] Victor Henry (23-6-0)
2023-01-14: W vs. [#164FLY] Mateus Mendonca (10-3-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2022-09-17: W vs. [#85BW] Tony Gravely (23-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Aiemann Zahabi (3-0-0)
2023-06-10: W vs. [#194BW] Qileng Aori (27-11-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:04 of round 1
2022-07-09: W vs. [*] Ricky Turcios (12-3-0) via UD ()
2021-02-20: W vs. [*] Drako Rodriguez (8-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:05 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Javid Basharat -477 78.36%
Elo K170 Javid Basharat 1798.20 +190.86 70.52%
Elo Modified Javid Basharat 1802.41 +187.99 69.49%
Glicko-1 Javid Basharat 1847.20 +218.13 77.83%
WHR Javid Basharat 1746.74 +123.68 63.76%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Javid Basharat 133, Aiemann Zahabi 266
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#58] Loik Radzhabov (18-5-1, +126) vs. [#111] Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady (15-3-0, -155)

Last 3 Fights: Loik Radzhabov (2-1-0)
2023-06-24: L vs. [#28LW] Mateusz Rebecki (20-1-0) via TKO (Punch) in 2:36 of round 2
2023-03-04: W vs. [#124LW] Esteban Ribovics (12-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-01-28: W vs. [#555LW] Zach Zane (15-15-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:23 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady (3-0-0)
2023-08-15: W vs. [#159LW] George Hardwick (12-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-02-17: W vs. [#795WW] Mike Murphy (8-8-1) via UD ()
2022-09-23: W vs. [#1739WW] Chris Pecero (14-15-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:44 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady -155 57.86%
Elo K170 Loik Radzhabov 1746.62 +79.67 59.00%
Elo Modified Loik Radzhabov 1766.95 +98.71 60.64%
Glicko-1 Loik Radzhabov 1799.80 +120.66 66.70%
WHR Loik Radzhabov 1722.13 +113.60 62.69%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Loik Radzhabov 252, Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady 200
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#83] Christian Leroy Duncan (9-1-0, -235) vs. [#159] Claudio Ribeiro (11-4-0, +187)

Last 3 Fights: Christian Leroy Duncan (2-1-0)
2023-11-18: W vs. [#155MW] Denis Tiuliulin (10-9-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 4:24 of round 2
2023-06-17: L vs. [#82MW] Armen Petrosyan (9-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2023-03-18: W vs. [#125MW] Dusko Todorovic (12-4-0) via TKO (Knee Injury) in 1:52 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Claudio Ribeiro (1-2-0)
2023-07-29: L vs. [#65MW] Roman Kopylov (12-3-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 0:33 of round 2
2023-05-06: W vs. [#239MW] Joseph Holmes (8-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:21 of round 2
2023-01-14: L vs. [#84MW] Abdul Razak Alhassan (12-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:28 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Christian Leroy Duncan -235 66.81%
Elo K170 Christian Leroy Duncan 1600.90 +131.87 64.62%
Elo Modified Christian Leroy Duncan 1652.35 +138.36 64.70%
Glicko-1 Christian Leroy Duncan 1660.57 +104.16 64.56%
WHR Christian Leroy Duncan 1606.21 +134.78 64.93%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Christian Leroy Duncan 105, Claudio Ribeiro 217
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.

Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Highest Stored DD Rating: Muhammad Mokaev
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Shamil Gaziev
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Muhammad Mokaev vs. Alex Perez
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Fair [**½]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Very Low [*½]
Run Date: 2024-2-25

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