Still trying to get out of this hole…
Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
Lightweight (155)
[#12][#11UFC] Renato Carneiro (21-7-1, +106) vs. [#39][#25UFC] Tom Nolan (11-1-0, -127)
Last 3 Fights: Renato Carneiro (1-2-0)
2026-04-04: W vs. [#46LW] Chris Duncan (15-3-0) via Submission (Face Crank) in 3:14 of round 2
2025-06-28: L vs. [#17LW] Beneil Dariush (23-8-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2025-01-18: L vs. [#1P4P][#3DD][#1WW] Islam Makhachev (29-1-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 4:05 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Tom Nolan (3-0-0)
2026-06-06: W vs. [#66LW] Fares Ziam (18-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2025-09-27: W vs. [#391LW] Charlie Campbell (9-3-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:08 of round 1
2025-02-08: W vs. [#327WW] Viacheslav Borshchev (9-8-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Tom Nolan | -127 | 53.54% | |
| Elo K170 | Renato Carneiro | 2042.59 | +174.18 | 73.16% |
| Elo Modified | Renato Carneiro | 2021.05 | +178.57 | 73.65% |
| Glicko-1 | Renato Carneiro | 2088.40 | +201.70 | 76.16% |
| WHR | Renato Carneiro | 1942.47 | +265.41 | 82.17% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Renato Carneiro 37.4, Tom Nolan 26.6
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Renato Carneiro 210, Tom Nolan 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#35][#27UFC] Randy Brown (20-8-0, +222) vs. [#52][#36UFC] Jacobe Smith (13-0-0, -343)
Last 3 Fights: Randy Brown (1-2-0)
2026-04-11: L vs. [#19WW] Kevin Holland (29-15-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2025-11-08: L vs. [#8WW] Gabriel Bonfim (20-1-0) via TKO (Knee) in 1:40 of round 2
2025-04-26: W vs. [#45WW] Nicolas Dalby (24-7-1) via KO (Punch) in 1:39 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Jacobe Smith (3-0-0)
2026-10-03: W vs. [#447WW] Bruce Whitehead (8-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:32 of round 1
2026-02-21: W vs. [#389LW] Josiah Harrell (11-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:01 of round 1
2025-06-28: W vs. [#142WW] Niko Price (17-11-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:03 of round 2
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Jacobe Smith | -343 | 71.37% | |
| Elo K170 | Randy Brown | 1765.16 | +4.71 | 50.68% |
| Elo Modified | Jacobe Smith | 1784.74 | +10.27 | 51.48% |
| Glicko-1 | Randy Brown | 1853.08 | +15.06 | 52.16% |
| WHR | Jacobe Smith | 1731.99 | +19.11 | 52.75% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Randy Brown 36.3, Jacobe Smith 30.8
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Randy Brown 203, Jacobe Smith 28
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Jacobe Smith leads 1-0
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Women Bantamweight (135)
[#4][#4UFC] Yana Santos (17-8-0, +205) vs. [#5][#5UFC] Luana Santos (11-2-0, -253)
Last 3 Fights: Yana Santos (3-0-0)
2025-10-04: W vs. [#13BW] Macy Chiasson (10-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2025-05-03: W vs. [*] Miesha Tate (20-10-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-08-10: W vs. [#14BW] Chelsea Chandler (8-4-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Luana Santos (3-0-0)
2026-06-20: W vs. [#10BW] Karol Rosa (19-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2025-12-13: W vs. [#26BW] Melissa Croden (8-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2025-05-17: W vs. [#76BW] Tainara Lisboa (7-4-0) via Submission (Keylock) in 4:59 of round 2
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Luana Santos | -253 | 68.60% | |
| Elo K170 | Yana Santos | 1662.54 | +39.60 | 55.67% |
| Elo Modified | Yana Santos | 1703.64 | +56.36 | 58.04% |
| Glicko-1 | Yana Santos | 1674.28 | +28.27 | 54.06% |
| WHR | Luana Santos | 1580.22 | +13.83 | 51.99% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Yana Santos 36.9, Luana Santos 26.5
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Yana Santos 392, Luana Santos 133
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Luana Santos leads 1-0
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Still trying to get out of this hole…
Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
Featherweight Championship (145)
[#6DD][#9P4P][#1][#1UFC] Alexander Volkanovski (28-4-0, -109) vs. [#4][#4UFC] Movsar Evloev (20-0-0, -110)
Alexander Volkanovski is the All-Time #2 ranked Featherweight and #5 ranked Absolute fighter.
Movsar Evloev is the All-Time #22 ranked Featherweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Alexander Volkanovski (2-1-0)
2026-01-31: W vs. [#3FW] Diego Lopes (28-8-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)
2025-04-12: W vs. [#3FW] Diego Lopes (28-8-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)
2024-02-17: L vs. [#2LW] Ilia Topuria (17-1-0) via KO (Punch) in 3:32 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Movsar Evloev (3-0-0)
2026-03-21: W vs. [#6FW] Lerone Murphy (17-1-1) via MD (48-46, 48-46, 47-47)
2024-12-07: W vs. [#2FW] Aljamain Sterling (26-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-01-20: W vs. [#8FW] Arnold Allen (21-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Movsar Evloev | -110 | 50.11% | |
| Elo K170 | Movsar Evloev | 2312.50 | +25.26 | 53.63% |
| Elo Modified | Alexander Volkanovski | 2243.63 | +37.45 | 55.37% |
| Glicko-1 | Alexander Volkanovski | 2303.63 | +100.31 | 64.05% |
| WHR | Alexander Volkanovski | 2215.88 | +152.78 | 70.67% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Alexander Volkanovski 38.0, Movsar Evloev 32.7
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexander Volkanovski 266, Movsar Evloev 217
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Alexander Volkanovski leads 2-1
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Bantamweight Championship (135)
[#2DD][#6P4P][#1][#1UFC] Petr Yan (20-5-0, -172) vs. [#5DD][#10P4P][#2][#2UFC] Merab Dvalishvili (21-5-0, +143)
Petr Yan is the All-Time #4 ranked Bantamweight fighter.
Merab Dvalishvili is the All-Time #7 ranked Bantamweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Petr Yan (3-0-0)
2025-12-06: W vs. [#10P4P][#5DD][#2BW] Merab Dvalishvili (21-5-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 49-46)
2025-07-26: W vs. [#25BW] Marcus McGhee (12-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-11-23: W vs. [#12BW] Deiveson Figueiredo (25-8-1) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
Last 3 Fights: Merab Dvalishvili (2-1-0)
2025-12-06: L vs. [#2DD][#6P4P][#1BW] Petr Yan (20-5-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 49-46)
2025-10-04: W vs. [#7BW] Cory Sandhagen (18-7-0) via UD (49-45, 49-45, 49-46)
2025-06-07: W vs. [#3BW] Sean OMalley (20-3-0) via Submission (North-South Choke) in 4:42 of round 3
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Petr Yan | -172 | 60.58% | |
| Elo K170 | Merab Dvalishvili | 2291.62 | +8.64 | 51.24% |
| Elo Modified | Petr Yan | 2290.44 | +28.78 | 54.13% |
| Glicko-1 | Petr Yan | 2345.52 | +7.92 | 51.14% |
| WHR | Merab Dvalishvili | 2152.90 | +15.79 | 52.27% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Petr Yan 33.7, Merab Dvalishvili 35.8
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Petr Yan 322, Merab Dvalishvili 322
Previous Match-up Record: Even: 1-1-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Merab Dvalishvili leads 5-3
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Flyweight (125)
[#8][#8UFC] Loneer Kavanagh (10-2-0, -112) vs. [#9][#9UFC] Ramazonbek Temirov (20-3-0, -108)
Last 3 Fights: Loneer Kavanagh (1-2-0)
2026-07-11: L vs. [#5FLY] Brandon Royval (18-9-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:40 of round 3
2026-02-28: W vs. [#7FLY] Brandon Moreno (24-10-2) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 48-47)
2025-08-23: L vs. [#23FLY] Charles Johnson (20-9-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:35 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Ramazonbek Temirov (3-0-0)
2026-07-25: W vs. [#10FLY] Steve Erceg (14-5-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:21 of round 1
2025-03-01: W vs. [#23FLY] Charles Johnson (20-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-10-12: W vs. [*] C.J. Vergara (12-7-1) via TKO (Punches) in 2:50 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Loneer Kavanagh | -112 | 50.43% | |
| Elo K170 | Ramazonbek Temirov | 1886.73 | +236.27 | 79.58% |
| Elo Modified | Ramazonbek Temirov | 1879.48 | +232.62 | 79.23% |
| Glicko-1 | Ramazonbek Temirov | 1943.37 | +304.16 | 85.21% |
| WHR | Ramazonbek Temirov | 1802.57 | +194.06 | 75.35% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Loneer Kavanagh 27.3, Ramazonbek Temirov 29.7
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Loneer Kavanagh 105, Ramazonbek Temirov 91
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Ramazonbek Temirov leads 1-0
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Pádraig Sheehan never puts money on the moneyline. He decided on this two years ago and has not broken the rule once. He’s thirty-two, works in a warehouse in Limerick, and he watches UFC every Saturday night on the sofa with his brother. His brother backs the outright winner, but he usually loses. Pádraig focuses on the method of victory. Knockout, submission or decision. Every single time. He started doing it after he realised that backing a well-known winner to win by decision, when they were priced as a strong favourite, gave him a better return than the outright. The fighter won in round two by TKO. He’s been reading finish rates ever since. He doesn’t always have the right answer. He always has a number for every fight, and he always gets it from ufcstats.com, which he opens on his phone while the preliminary card is still running.
The global MMA market generated an estimated $1.5 billion in handle during 2023, according to industry tracking by GBGC, and that figure has continued to grow as legal sports activity has expanded in North America and across Asia-Pacific. The GBGC figure only includes licensed markets. Analysts have always estimated that unlicensed activity runs at roughly the same size.
Every big fight comes with a sales pitch. The press conference trash talk, the walk-out music, the promotional videos that make a routine main event look like the fight of the century. Hype is part of what makes combat sports fun, and promoters are very good at it.
But more and more fans have learned to tune it out. They look at records in context, check the numbers behind a fighter’s reputation and listen to what other fans have actually experienced. Here’s why the fight community has become so sceptical of hype, and what it trusts instead.
Still trying to get out of this hole…
Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
Welterweight (170)
[#11][#11UFC] Joaquin Buckley (21-8-0, +116) vs. [#17][#14UFC] Mike Malott (14-2-1, -140)
Joaquin Buckley is the All-Time #49 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Joaquin Buckley (1-2-0)
2026-05-09: L vs. [#4WW] Sean Brady (19-2-0) via UD (30-25, 30-25, 30-27)
2025-06-14: L vs. [#6WW] Kamaru Usman (21-5-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)
2024-12-14: W vs. [*] Colby Covington (17-5-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 4:42 of round 3
Last 3 Fights: Mike Malott (3-0-0)
2026-04-18: W vs. [#40WW] Gilbert Burns (22-10-0) via NC in 2:08 of round 3
2025-10-18: W vs. [#19WW] Kevin Holland (29-15-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2025-05-10: W vs. [#91WW] Charles Radtke (12-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:26 of round 2
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Mike Malott | -140 | 55.74% | |
| Elo K170 | Joaquin Buckley | 2037.16 | +75.71 | 60.73% |
| Elo Modified | Joaquin Buckley | 2012.53 | +76.89 | 60.89% |
| Glicko-1 | Joaquin Buckley | 2121.38 | +127.64 | 67.59% |
| WHR | Mike Malott | 1909.01 | +57.24 | 58.16% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Joaquin Buckley 32.5, Mike Malott 34.9
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Joaquin Buckley 161, Mike Malott 182
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Mike Malott leads 1-0
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Women Flyweight (125)
[#5][#5UFC] Erin Blanchfield (14-2-0, -304) vs. [#14P4P][#9][#7UFC] Jasmine Jasudavicius (15-4-0, +235)
Erin Blanchfield is the All-Time #31 ranked Women’s fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Erin Blanchfield (2-1-0)
2025-11-15: W vs. [#13FLY] Tracy Cortez (12-4-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:44 of round 2
2024-11-02: W vs. [#7FLY] Rose Namajunas (14-8-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)
2024-03-30: L vs. [#4FLY] Manon Fiorot (13-3-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
Last 3 Fights: Jasmine Jasudavicius (2-1-0)
2026-04-18: W vs. [#17FLY] Karine Silva (19-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2025-10-18: L vs. [#4FLY] Manon Fiorot (13-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:14 of round 1
2025-05-10: W vs. [#19SW] Jessica Andrade (26-15-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:40 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Erin Blanchfield | -304 | 71.59% | |
| Elo K170 | Erin Blanchfield | 1954.08 | +170.49 | 72.74% |
| Elo Modified | Erin Blanchfield | 1932.65 | +159.15 | 71.42% |
| Glicko-1 | Erin Blanchfield | 1962.32 | +181.57 | 73.99% |
| WHR | Erin Blanchfield | 1806.10 | +115.61 | 66.05% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Erin Blanchfield 27.4, Jasmine Jasudavicius 37.6
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Erin Blanchfield 336, Jasmine Jasudavicius 182
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Erin Blanchfield leads 5-4
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Lightweight (155)
[#84][#47UFC] Kyle Nelson (17-7-1, +227) vs. [#242] Cristian Perez (15-2-0, -287)
Last 3 Fights: Kyle Nelson (1-2-0)
2026-03-28: L vs. [#83LW] Terrance McKinney (18-9-0) via NC in 0:24 of round 1
2025-10-18: W vs. [#146LW] Matt Frevola (11-6-1) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2024-09-07: L vs. [#15FW] Steve Garcia (19-6-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 3:59 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Cristian Perez (2-1-0)
2026-08-18: W vs. [#804LW] Logan Paxton (10-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:06 of round 2
2026-04-11: W vs. [#2086LW] Gilberto Santos (6-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:11 of round 1
2025-08-26: L vs. [#56LW] Manoel Sousa (15-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:00 of round 3
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Cristian Perez | -287 | 70.80% | |
| Elo K170 | Kyle Nelson | 1650.67 | +22.31 | 53.21% |
| Elo Modified | Kyle Nelson | 1648.49 | +12.17 | 51.75% |
| Glicko-1 | Cristian Perez | 1691.17 | +30.24 | 54.34% |
| WHR | Cristian Perez | 1593.18 | +24.05 | 53.46% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Kyle Nelson 35.5, Cristian Perez 27.1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kyle Nelson 203, Cristian Perez 60
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Still trying to get out of this hole…
Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
Middleweight (185)
[#7][#6UFC] Brendan Allen (27-7-0, -140) vs. [#11][#9UFC] Christian Leroy Duncan (15-2-0, +115)
Last 3 Fights: Brendan Allen (3-0-0)
2026-06-06: W vs. [#20MW] Edmen Shahbazyan (17-6-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2025-10-18: W vs. [#9LHW] Reinier de Ridder (22-4-0) via TKO (Corner Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 4
2025-07-19: W vs. [#37MW] Marvin Vettori (19-11-1) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
Last 3 Fights: Christian Leroy Duncan (3-0-0)
2026-07-18: W vs. [#16MW] Jared Cannonier (18-10-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2026-03-21: W vs. [#15LHW] Roman Dolidze (15-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2025-11-08: W vs. [#84MW] Marco Tulio (14-3-0) via KO (Spinning Backfist and Punches) in 3:28 of round 2
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Brendan Allen | -140 | 55.63% | |
| Elo K170 | Brendan Allen | 2138.73 | +108.13 | 65.08% |
| Elo Modified | Brendan Allen | 2106.82 | +78.12 | 61.06% |
| Glicko-1 | Brendan Allen | 2170.10 | +61.36 | 58.74% |
| WHR | Brendan Allen | 1990.16 | +76.64 | 60.85% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Brendan Allen 30.8, Christian Leroy Duncan 31.2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brendan Allen 126, Christian Leroy Duncan 84
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Christian Leroy Duncan leads 1-0
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Lightweight (155)
[#72][#40UFC] Jai Herbert (14-6-1, +155) vs. [#92][#52UFC] Matheus Camilo (11-3-0, -191)
Last 3 Fights: Jai Herbert (2-1-0)
2026-04-18: W vs. [#134LW] Mandel Nallo (14-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:05 of round 1
2025-03-22: L vs. [#45LW] Chris Padilla (18-6-1) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-08-03: W vs. [#461LW] Rolando Bedoya (14-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Matheus Camilo (2-1-0)
2026-06-27: W vs. [#108LW] Nazim Sadykhov (11-3-1) via NC in 1:31 of round 1
2025-11-15: W vs. [#338LW] Viacheslav Borshchev (8-8-1) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2025-05-17: L vs. [*] Gabriel Green (12-5-0) via Submission (Face Crank) in 3:43 of round 2
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Matheus Camilo | -191 | 62.59% | |
| Elo K170 | Matheus Camilo | 1676.29 | +7.35 | 51.06% |
| Elo Modified | Jai Herbert | 1718.22 | +30.42 | 54.37% |
| Glicko-1 | Jai Herbert | 1787.84 | +88.37 | 62.45% |
| WHR | Jai Herbert | 1738.11 | +120.74 | 66.71% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Jai Herbert 38.4, Matheus Camilo 25.7
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jai Herbert 175, Matheus Camilo 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Strawweight (115)
[#13][#13UFC] Lupita Godinez (14-6-0, -232) vs. [#19][#18UFC] Ketlen Souza (17-6-0, +190)
Last 3 Fights: Lupita Godinez (2-1-0)
2026-04-11: L vs. [#8P4P][#9DD][#4SW] Tatiana Suarez (12-1-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:29 of round 2
2025-08-16: W vs. [#20SW] Jessica Andrade (26-15-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2025-03-29: W vs. [#21SW] Julia Polastri (15-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Ketlen Souza (2-1-0)
2026-06-06: W vs. [#88SW] Ariane Carnelossi (15-5-0) via KO (Punches and Head Kick) in 1:34 of round 1
2026-02-07: W vs. [#37SW] Bruna Brasil (11-7-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2025-08-02: L vs. [#16SW] Piera Rodriguez (12-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Lupita Godinez | -232 | 66.96% | |
| Elo K170 | Lupita Godinez | 1636.61 | +76.01 | 60.77% |
| Elo Modified | Ketlen Souza | 1634.95 | +14.87 | 52.14% |
| Glicko-1 | Ketlen Souza | 1655.13 | +86.15 | 62.15% |
| WHR | Ketlen Souza | 1558.27 | +36.20 | 55.19% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Lupita Godinez 33.1, Ketlen Souza 32.1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Lupita Godinez 182, Ketlen Souza 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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