Modern combat sports rely heavily on data. Analysts track strikes, takedowns, control time, and many other indicators. Fans read these numbers and try to understand who holds the advantage before a fight. At first glance, statistics seem clear and objective. They offer structure and allow quick comparisons. However, numbers do not always show the full picture of a fighter’s level.
This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays
2026 WHR Post #8
Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
- Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
- Both fighters must have at least 7 fights in the prior 7 years, including 1+ loss. If the loss was in their debut, then 2+ losses are required.
- Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
- Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.
Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan (04-04-2026)
Lightweight (155)
[#12][#11UFC] Renato Carneiro (20-7-1, +161) vs. [#39][#25UFC] Chris Duncan (15-2-0, -195)
Last 3 Fights: Renato Carneiro (1-2-0)
2025-06-28: L vs. [#11LW] Beneil Dariush (23-7-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2025-01-18: L vs. [#1P4P][#1WW] Islam Makhachev (28-1-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 4:05 of round 1
2024-09-28: W vs. [#7LW] Benoit St. Denis (17-3-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Chris Duncan (3-0-0)
2025-12-06: W vs. [#64LW] Terrance McKinney (18-8-0) via Submission (Anaconda Choke) in 2:30 of round 1
2025-08-02: W vs. [#56LW] Mateusz Rebecki (21-4-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2025-03-22: W vs. [#154LW] Jordan Vucenic (15-4-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:42 of round 2
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Chris Duncan | -195 | 63.30% | |
| Elo K170 | Renato Carneiro | 1979.61 | +92.25 | 62.97% |
| Elo Modified | Renato Carneiro | 1965.58 | +101.56 | 64.21% |
| Glicko-1 | Renato Carneiro | 2024.83 | +110.04 | 65.33% |
| WHR | Renato Carneiro | 1907.27 | +74.22 | 60.52% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Renato Carneiro 36.9, Chris Duncan 32.9
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Renato Carneiro 280, Chris Duncan 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Strawweight (115)
[#6DD][#11P4P][#3][#3UFC] Virna Jandiroba (22-4-0, -103) vs. [#7][#7UFC] Tabatha Ricci (12-3-0, -118)
Virna Jandiroba is the All-Time #49 ranked Women’s fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Virna Jandiroba (2-1-0)
2025-10-25: L vs. [#5DD][#5P4P][#2SW] Mackenzie Dern (16-5-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 48-47)
2025-04-12: W vs. [#5SW] Xiaonan Yan (19-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-07-20: W vs. [#9SW] Amanda Lemos (15-6-1) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:48 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Tabatha Ricci (2-1-0)
2025-07-26: W vs. [#18SW] Amanda Ribas (12-7-0) via TKO (Elbow and Punches) in 2:59 of round 2
2024-11-23: L vs. [#5SW] Xiaonan Yan (19-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-08-24: W vs. [#20SW] Angela Hill (18-16-0) via UD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Tabatha Ricci | -118 | 51.61% | |
| Elo K170 | Virna Jandiroba | 1802.27 | +117.05 | 66.23% |
| Elo Modified | Virna Jandiroba | 1788.60 | +95.14 | 63.36% |
| Glicko-1 | Virna Jandiroba | 1772.87 | +78.33 | 61.08% |
| WHR | Virna Jandiroba | 1734.08 | +148.28 | 70.13% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Virna Jandiroba 37.8, Tabatha Ricci 31.1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Virna Jandiroba 161, Tabatha Ricci 252
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Virna Jandiroba leads 3-2
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#59][#27UFC] Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (8-0-0, -1509) vs. [#74][#32UFC] Brendson Ribeiro (17-9-0, +809)
Last 3 Fights: Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (3-0-0)
2025-11-22: W vs. [#188LHW] Raffael Cerqueira (11-4-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 0:33 of round 1
2025-08-26: W vs. [#158LHW] Alik Lorenz (7-2-0) via TKO (Knee to the Body and Punches) in 0:30 of round 1
2024-09-26: W vs. [#191MW] Jacky Jeanne (6-2-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:23 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Brendson Ribeiro (1-2-0)
2025-09-06: L vs. [#39LHW] Oumar Sy (12-2-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 4:42 of round 1
2025-06-07: L vs. [#15LHW] Azamat Murzakanov (16-0-0) via TKO (Submission to Punches) in 3:25 of round 1
2025-03-15: W vs. [#85LHW] Diyar Nurgozhay (11-2-0) via Submission (Kimura) in 1:28 of round 2
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev | -1509 | 89.50% | |
| Elo K170 | Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev | 1585.82 | +108.68 | 65.15% |
| Elo Modified | Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev | 1623.81 | +135.49 | 68.57% |
| Glicko-1 | Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev | 1651.16 | +137.51 | 68.82% |
| WHR | Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev | 1640.86 | +150.89 | 70.45% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 25.2, Brendson Ribeiro 29.6
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 133, Brendson Ribeiro 210
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays
2026 WHR Post #7
Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
- Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
- Both fighters must have at least 7 fights in the prior 7 years, including 1+ loss. If the loss was in their debut, then 2+ losses are required.
- Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
- Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.
Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer (03-28-2026)
Middleweight (185)
[#5][#5UFC] Israel Adesanya (24-5-0, -133) vs. [#19][#16UFC] Joe Pyfer (15-3-0, +108)
Israel Adesanya is the All-Time #2 ranked Middleweight and #15 ranked Absolute fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Israel Adesanya (0-3-0)
2025-02-01: L vs. [#3MW] Nassourdine Imavov (17-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:30 of round 2
2024-08-17: L vs. [#9DD][#9P4P][#2MW] Dricus Du Plessis (23-3-0) via Submission (Face Crank) in 3:38 of round 4
2023-09-09: L vs. [#4MW] Sean Strickland (30-7-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
Last 3 Fights: Joe Pyfer (3-0-0)
2025-10-04: W vs. [#33MW] Abusupiyan Magomedov (28-7-1) via Submission (Face Crank) in 1:46 of round 2
2025-06-07: W vs. [#21MW] Kelvin Gastelum (20-10-0) via UD (29-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2024-06-29: W vs. [#43MW] Marc-Andre Barriault (18-11-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:25 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Israel Adesanya | -133 | 54.27% | |
| Elo K170 | Israel Adesanya | 2002.08 | +46.55 | 56.66% |
| Elo Modified | Israel Adesanya | 1983.42 | +13.55 | 51.95% |
| Glicko-1 | Joe Pyfer | 2053.57 | +36.79 | 55.28% |
| WHR | Israel Adesanya | 1923.19 | +22.17 | 53.19% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Israel Adesanya 36.7, Joe Pyfer 29.5
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Israel Adesanya 420, Joe Pyfer 175
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Women Flyweight (125)
[#5][#5UFC] Alexa Grasso (16-5-1, +114) vs. [#7][#7UFC] Maycee Barber (15-2-0, -156)
Alexa Grasso is the All-Time #20 ranked Women’s fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Alexa Grasso (0-2-1)
2025-05-10: L vs. [#7P4P][#9DD][#3FLY] Natalia Silva (20-5-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-09-14: L vs. [#1P4P][#2DD][#1FLY] Valentina Shevchenko (26-4-1) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2023-09-16: D vs. [#1P4P][#2DD][#1FLY] Valentina Shevchenko (26-4-1) via Draw (Split) in 5:00 of round 5
Last 3 Fights: Maycee Barber (3-0-0)
2025-12-06: W vs. [#13FLY] Karine Silva (19-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2024-03-09: W vs. [*] Katlyn Cerminara (18-6-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2023-06-24: W vs. [#18SW] Amanda Ribas (12-7-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 3:42 of round 2
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Maycee Barber | -156 | 56.59% | |
| Elo K170 | Maycee Barber | 1882.70 | +157.07 | 71.18% |
| Elo Modified | Maycee Barber | 1836.92 | +126.69 | 67.46% |
| Glicko-1 | Maycee Barber | 1833.34 | +99.61 | 63.96% |
| WHR | Maycee Barber | 1733.45 | +16.17 | 52.33% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Alexa Grasso 32.6, Maycee Barber 27.8
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexa Grasso 322, Maycee Barber 112
Previous Match-up Record: Alexa Grasso leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#67][#42UFC] Yousri Belgaroui (9-3-0, +110) vs. [#77][#47UFC] Mansur Abdul-Malik (10-0-0, -156)
Last 3 Fights: Yousri Belgaroui (3-0-0)
2025-10-18: W vs. [#79MW] Azamat Bekoev (20-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:55 of round 3
2024-09-10: W vs. [#482MW] Taiga Iwasaki (10-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:34 of round 3
2024-02-18: W vs. [#143LHW] Ahmed Sami (12-5-0) via UD ()
Last 3 Fights: Mansur Abdul-Malik (3-0-0)
2025-12-06: W vs. [#483MW] Antonio Trocoli (13-7-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:09 of round 1
2025-06-14: W vs. [#142MW] Cody Brundage (11-10-0) via TUD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2025-02-22: W vs. [#235MW] Nick Klein (6-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:24 of round 2
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Mansur Abdul-Malik | -156 | 56.13% | |
| Elo K170 | Mansur Abdul-Malik | 1650.12 | +23.13 | 53.32% |
| Elo Modified | Mansur Abdul-Malik | 1686.63 | +35.04 | 55.02% |
| Glicko-1 | Mansur Abdul-Malik | 1718.78 | +22.77 | 53.27% |
| WHR | Yousri Belgaroui | 1630.92 | +33.55 | 54.81% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Yousri Belgaroui 33.8, Mansur Abdul-Malik 28.4
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Yousri Belgaroui 161, Mansur Abdul-Malik 112
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays
2026 WHR Post #6
Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
- Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
- Both fighters must have at least 7 fights in the prior 7 years, including 1+ loss. If the loss was in their debut, then 2+ losses are required.
- Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
- Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.
Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy (03-21-2026)
Featherweight (145)
[*] Movsar Evloev (19-0-0, -226) vs. [#6][#5UFC] Lerone Murphy (17-0-1, +184)
Movsar Evloev is the All-Time #38 ranked Featherweight fighter.
Lerone Murphy is the All-Time #50 ranked Featherweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Movsar Evloev (3-0-0)
2024-12-07: W vs. [#4FW] Aljamain Sterling (25-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-01-20: W vs. [#14FW] Arnold Allen (20-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-05-06: W vs. [#2FW] Diego Lopes (27-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
Last 3 Fights: Lerone Murphy (3-0-0)
2025-08-16: W vs. [#48FW] Aaron Pico (13-5-0) via KO (Spinning Back Elbow) in 3:21 of round 1
2025-04-05: W vs. [#22FW] Josh Emmett (19-7-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 48-47)
2024-10-26: W vs. [#24FW] Dan Ige (19-11-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Movsar Evloev | -226 | 66.31% | |
| Elo K170 | Movsar Evloev | 2253.99 | +112.10 | 65.60% |
| Elo Modified | Movsar Evloev | 2171.90 | +79.38 | 61.23% |
| Glicko-1 | Movsar Evloev | 2192.27 | +45.21 | 56.47% |
| WHR | Movsar Evloev | 2063.98 | +122.97 | 66.99% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Movsar Evloev 32.1, Lerone Murphy 34.6
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Movsar Evloev 469, Lerone Murphy 217
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#79][#39UFC] Luke Riley (12-0-0, -277) vs. [#104][#46UFC] Michael Aswell (11-3-0, +219)
Last 3 Fights: Luke Riley (3-0-0)
2025-11-22: W vs. [#165FW] Bogdan Grad (15-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:30 of round 2
2025-03-15: W vs. [#801FW] Tariel Abbasov (9-4-0) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 3:09 of round 2
2024-09-21: W vs. [#882FW] Alexandre dos Santos Juni (7-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:05 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Michael Aswell (2-1-0)
2025-10-11: W vs. [#209FW] Lucas Almeida (15-5-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbow) in 1:42 of round 1
2025-05-31: L vs. [#180LW] Bolaji Oki (10-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-12-15: W vs. [#396FW] Dorian Ramos (9-4-0) via SD ()
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Luke Riley | -277 | 70.09% | |
| Elo K170 | Luke Riley | 1698.55 | +188.28 | 74.72% |
| Elo Modified | Luke Riley | 1737.25 | +196.21 | 75.57% |
| Glicko-1 | Luke Riley | 1739.29 | +180.86 | 73.90% |
| WHR | Luke Riley | 1650.12 | +159.94 | 71.52% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Luke Riley 26.7, Michael Aswell 25.5
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Luke Riley 119, Michael Aswell 161
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Luke Riley leads 1-0
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Welterweight (170)
[#11][#11UFC] Michael Page (24-3-0, -202) vs. [#79][#50UFC] Sam Patterson (14-2-1, +166)
Last 3 Fights: Michael Page (2-1-0)
2025-08-16: W vs. [#14MW] Jared Cannonier (18-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2025-02-01: W vs. [#24MW] Sharabutdin Magomedov (16-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2024-06-29: L vs. [#5WW] Ian Garry (17-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Sam Patterson (3-0-0)
2025-09-06: W vs. [#204WW] Trey Waters (9-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:01 of round 1
2025-03-01: W vs. [#286MW] Danny Barlow (9-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:10 of round 1
2024-07-27: W vs. [#404WW] Kiefer Crosbie (10-6-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 2:50 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Michael Page | -202 | 64.02% | |
| Elo K170 | Michael Page | 2126.40 | +352.98 | 88.41% |
| Elo Modified | Michael Page | 2104.47 | +321.54 | 86.42% |
| Glicko-1 | Michael Page | 2172.13 | +330.42 | 87.01% |
| WHR | Michael Page | 2027.46 | +268.12 | 82.39% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Michael Page 38.9, Sam Patterson 29.9
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Michael Page 217, Sam Patterson 196
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays
2026 WHR Post #5
Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
- Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
- Both fighters must have at least 7 fights in the prior 7 years, including 1+ loss. If the loss was in their debut, then 2+ losses are required.
- Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
- Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.
Data-Driven Perspectives on Professional MMA Performance and Ranking Accuracy
The Role of Quantifiable Metrics in Combat Sports
The world of mixed martial arts has moved far beyond the era of subjective matchmaking and “eye-test” assessments. Today, enthusiasts and professionals alike rely on complex algorithms to determine where a fighter stands in the global hierarchy. Systems like those utilized by FightMatrix provide an objective counterpoint to media-driven polls, using mathematical formulas to account for strength of schedule, recent activity, and the quality of opposition. This shift toward numerical clarity has changed how the community views athletic progression, turning the focus from mere wins and losses to the statistical probability of continued success.
When we look at the proprietary data used to rank thousands of active fighters, we see that the variance in MMA is significantly higher than in traditional sports like baseball or basketball. A single strike can negate years of statistical dominance. However, over a long enough timeline, the numbers tend to normalize. Rankings serve as a map of this normalization, allowing analysts to identify “outliers”—fighters whose current placement might not reflect their actual skill ceiling or their decline.
Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos (03-14-2026)
Featherweight (145)
[#16][#13UFC] Josh Emmett (19-6-0, +393) vs. [#25][#16UFC] Kevin Vallejos (17-1-0, -546)
Josh Emmett is the All-Time #23 ranked Featherweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Josh Emmett (1-2-0)
2025-10-04: L vs. [#7FW] Youssef Zalal (18-5-1) via Submission (Armbar) in 1:38 of round 1
2025-04-05: L vs. [#6FW] Lerone Murphy (17-0-1) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 48-47)
2023-12-16: W vs. [#15BW] Bryce Mitchell (18-3-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:57 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Kevin Vallejos (3-0-0)
2025-12-13: W vs. [#33FW] Giga Chikadze (15-6-0) via KO (Spinning Backfist and Elbows) in 1:29 of round 2
2025-08-02: W vs. [#144FW] Danny Silva (10-2-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2025-03-15: W vs. [#194FW] Seung Woo Choi (11-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:09 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Kevin Vallejos | -546 | 80.64% | |
| Elo K170 | Josh Emmett | 1839.12 | +29.38 | 54.22% |
| Elo Modified | Josh Emmett | 1818.75 | +13.81 | 51.99% |
| Glicko-1 | Kevin Vallejos | 1870.17 | +23.17 | 53.33% |
| WHR | Kevin Vallejos | 1771.78 | +37.35 | 55.36% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Josh Emmett 41.0, Kevin Vallejos 24.2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Josh Emmett 161, Kevin Vallejos 91
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Strawweight (115)
[#6][#6UFC] Amanda Lemos (15-5-1, +159) vs. [#9][#9UFC] Gillian Robertson (16-8-0, -196)
Last 3 Fights: Amanda Lemos (1-2-0)
2025-09-13: L vs. [#4SW] Tatiana Suarez (11-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2025-03-08: W vs. [#10SW] Iasmin Lucindo (18-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-07-20: L vs. [#6DD][#3SW] Virna Jandiroba (22-4-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:48 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Gillian Robertson (3-0-0)
2025-05-03: W vs. [*] Marina Rodriguez (17-6-2) via TKO (Punches) in 2:07 of round 2
2024-11-09: W vs. [#46SW] Luana Pinheiro (11-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-27)
2024-06-29: W vs. [*] Michelle Waterson-Gomez (18-13-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Gillian Robertson | -196 | 63.16% | |
| Elo K170 | Amanda Lemos | 1703.91 | +38.32 | 55.49% |
| Elo Modified | Gillian Robertson | 1702.56 | +8.54 | 51.23% |
| Glicko-1 | Gillian Robertson | 1727.06 | +45.33 | 56.49% |
| WHR | Gillian Robertson | 1623.98 | +14.74 | 52.12% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Amanda Lemos 38.8, Gillian Robertson 30.8
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Amanda Lemos 182, Gillian Robertson 315
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#32][#21UFC] Ion Cutelaba (19-11-1, +169) vs. [#34][#22UFC] Oumar Sy (12-1-0, -208)
Last 3 Fights: Ion Cutelaba (2-1-0)
2025-05-10: L vs. [#27LHW] Modestas Bukauskas (19-7-0) via SD (29-28, 30-27, 27-30)
2025-02-22: W vs. [#117LHW] Ibo Aslan (14-4-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 2:51 of round 1
2024-09-28: W vs. [#66LHW] Ivan Erslan (14-6-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Oumar Sy (2-1-0)
2025-09-06: W vs. [#75LHW] Brendson Ribeiro (17-9-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 4:42 of round 1
2025-06-14: L vs. [#26LHW] Alonzo Menifield (17-6-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-09-28: W vs. [*] Da Woon Jung (15-6-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Oumar Sy | -208 | 64.49% | |
| Elo K170 | Oumar Sy | 1678.00 | +62.25 | 58.86% |
| Elo Modified | Oumar Sy | 1694.99 | +17.82 | 52.56% |
| Glicko-1 | Oumar Sy | 1746.16 | +13.20 | 51.90% |
| WHR | Oumar Sy | 1703.42 | +74.17 | 60.51% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Ion Cutelaba 32.2, Oumar Sy 30.3
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ion Cutelaba 308, Oumar Sy 189
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays
2026 WHR Post #4
Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
- Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
- Both fighters must have at least 7 fights in the prior 7 years, including 1+ loss. If the loss was in their debut, then 2+ losses are required.
- Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
- Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.
Fight Matrix Program – UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 (03-07-2026)
Lightweight (155)
[#3][#3UFC] Charles Oliveira (36-11-0, +179) vs. [#4][#4UFC] Max Holloway (27-8-0, -220)
Charles Oliveira is the All-Time #6 ranked Lightweight and #32 ranked Absolute fighter.
Max Holloway is the All-Time #46 ranked Lightweight and #8 ranked Absolute fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Charles Oliveira (2-1-0)
2025-10-11: W vs. [#8LW] Mateusz Gamrot (25-4-0) via Submission (Face Crank) in 2:48 of round 2
2025-06-28: L vs. [#2P4P][#9DD][#1LW] Ilia Topuria (17-0-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:27 of round 1
2024-11-16: W vs. [#25LW] Michael Chandler (23-10-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-45)
Last 3 Fights: Max Holloway (2-1-0)
2025-07-19: W vs. [*] Dustin Poirier (30-10-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)
2024-10-26: L vs. [#2P4P][#9DD][#1LW] Ilia Topuria (17-0-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:34 of round 3
2024-04-13: W vs. [#5LW] Justin Gaethje (27-5-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:59 of round 5
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Max Holloway | -220 | 65.73% | |
| Elo K170 | Max Holloway | 2341.64 | +59.15 | 58.43% |
| Elo Modified | Max Holloway | 2303.24 | +32.80 | 54.71% |
| Glicko-1 | Charles Oliveira | 2371.32 | +1.74 | 50.25% |
| WHR | Charles Oliveira | 2180.40 | +24.97 | 53.59% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Charles Oliveira 36.4, Max Holloway 34.2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Charles Oliveira 147, Max Holloway 231
Previous Match-up Record: Max Holloway leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Max Holloway leads 7-3
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Middleweight (185)
[#11][#10UFC] Caio Borralho (17-2-0, -263) vs. [#15][#12UFC] Reinier de Ridder (21-3-0, +212)
Last 3 Fights: Caio Borralho (2-1-0)
2025-09-06: L vs. [#3MW] Nassourdine Imavov (17-4-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)
2024-08-24: W vs. [#14MW] Jared Cannonier (18-9-0) via UD (49-46, 48-46, 49-45)
2024-05-04: W vs. [*] Paul Craig (17-10-1) via KO (Punches) in 2:10 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Reinier de Ridder (2-1-0)
2025-10-18: L vs. [#6MW] Brendan Allen (26-7-0) via TKO (Corner Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 4
2025-07-26: W vs. [#10MW] Robert Whittaker (26-9-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)
2025-05-03: W vs. [#32MW] Bo Nickal (8-1-0) via TKO (Knees) in 1:53 of round 2
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Caio Borralho | -263 | 69.33% | |
| Elo K170 | Caio Borralho | 2036.09 | +46.58 | 56.66% |
| Elo Modified | Caio Borralho | 2015.27 | +55.88 | 57.97% |
| Glicko-1 | Caio Borralho | 2060.69 | +47.23 | 56.76% |
| WHR | Caio Borralho | 1954.98 | +56.84 | 58.11% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Caio Borralho 33.1, Reinier de Ridder 35.5
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Caio Borralho 182, Reinier de Ridder 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Bantamweight (135)
[#16][#15UFC] Rob Font (22-9-0, +177) vs. [#84][#44UFC] Raul Rosas Jr. (11-1-0, -217)
Rob Font is the All-Time #35 ranked Bantamweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Rob Font (2-1-0)
2025-09-13: L vs. [#12BW] David Martinez (14-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2025-02-22: W vs. [#33BW] Jean Matsumoto (17-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2024-10-19: W vs. [#24BW] Kyler Phillips (12-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Raul Rosas Jr. (3-0-0)
2025-03-29: W vs. [#128BW] Vince Morales (16-10-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-09-14: W vs. [#103BW] Qileng Aori (28-12-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-06-08: W vs. [#749BW] Ricky Turcios (12-5-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:22 of round 2
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Raul Rosas Jr. | -217 | 65.47% | |
| Elo K170 | Rob Font | 1848.51 | +158.70 | 71.37% |
| Elo Modified | Rob Font | 1792.99 | +113.68 | 65.80% |
| Glicko-1 | Rob Font | 1840.19 | +138.91 | 68.99% |
| WHR | Rob Font | 1727.18 | +117.07 | 66.24% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Rob Font 38.7, Raul Rosas Jr. 21.4
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rob Font 175, Raul Rosas Jr. 343
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh (02-28-2026)
Flyweight (125)
[#5][#5UFC] Brandon Moreno (23-9-2, -257) vs. [#76][#33UFC] Loneer Kavanagh (9-1-0, +199)
Brandon Moreno is the All-Time #3 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Brandon Moreno (2-1-0)
2025-12-06: L vs. [#3FLY] Tatsuro Taira (18-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:24 of round 2
2025-03-29: W vs. [#11FLY] Steve Erceg (13-4-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2024-11-02: W vs. [#13FLY] Amir Albazi (17-3-0) via UD (49-46, 50-45, 50-45)
Last 3 Fights: Loneer Kavanagh (2-1-0)
2025-08-23: L vs. [#30FLY] Charles Johnson (18-8-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:35 of round 2
2025-03-22: W vs. [#128FLY] Felipe dos Santos (10-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-11-23: W vs. [#57FLY] Jose Ochoa (8-2-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Brandon Moreno | -257 | 68.28% | |
| Elo K170 | Brandon Moreno | 1892.17 | +333.88 | 87.24% |
| Elo Modified | Brandon Moreno | 1924.87 | +341.08 | 87.69% |
| Glicko-1 | Brandon Moreno | 2001.24 | +427.21 | 92.12% |
| WHR | Brandon Moreno | 1871.79 | +327.67 | 86.84% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Brandon Moreno 32.2, Loneer Kavanagh 26.7
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brandon Moreno 84, Loneer Kavanagh 189
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Bantamweight (135)
[#12][#11UFC] Marlon Vera (24-11-1, +212) vs. [#15][#14UFC] David Martinez (13-1-0, -268)
Marlon Vera is the All-Time #32 ranked Bantamweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Marlon Vera (0-3-0)
2025-10-18: L vs. [#8BW] Aiemann Zahabi (14-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2024-08-03: L vs. [#9BW] Deiveson Figueiredo (25-6-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-03-09: L vs. [#10DD][#3BW] Sean OMalley (19-3-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-44)
Last 3 Fights: David Martinez (3-0-0)
2025-09-13: W vs. [#16BW] Rob Font (22-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2025-03-29: W vs. [#1024FW] Saimon Oliveira (18-7-0) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 4:38 of round 1
2024-10-01: W vs. [#357FW] Xavier Franklin (6-1-1) via UD ()
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | David Martinez | -268 | 69.44% | |
| Elo K170 | Marlon Vera | 1853.42 | +34.81 | 54.99% |
| Elo Modified | Marlon Vera | 1910.59 | +64.77 | 59.21% |
| Glicko-1 | Marlon Vera | 1995.32 | +110.11 | 65.34% |
| WHR | Marlon Vera | 1808.38 | +32.47 | 54.66% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Marlon Vera 33.2, David Martinez 27.5
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Marlon Vera 133, David Martinez 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#47][#27UFC] Bobby Green (33-17-1, +364) vs. [#95][#48UFC] Daniel Zellhuber (15-3-0, -510)
Last 3 Fights: Bobby Green (1-2-0)
2025-12-13: W vs. [#202LW] Lance Gibson Jr. (9-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2025-03-08: L vs. [#10LW] Mauricio Ruffy (13-2-0) via KO (Spinning Wheel Kick) in 2:07 of round 1
2024-07-27: L vs. [#9LW] Paddy Pimblett (23-4-0) via Technical Submission (Triangle Choke) in 3:22 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Daniel Zellhuber (1-2-0)
2025-07-19: L vs. [#55LW] Michael Johnson (24-19-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-09-14: L vs. [#60LW] Esteban Ribovics (15-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2024-02-24: W vs. [#249WW] Francisco Prado (12-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Daniel Zellhuber | -510 | 79.50% | |
| Elo K170 | Bobby Green | 1738.10 | +131.40 | 68.06% |
| Elo Modified | Bobby Green | 1693.35 | +21.12 | 53.04% |
| Glicko-1 | Daniel Zellhuber | 1741.20 | +30.64 | 54.40% |
| WHR | Bobby Green | 1671.12 | +30.43 | 54.37% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Bobby Green 39.5, Daniel Zellhuber 26.6
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Bobby Green 77, Daniel Zellhuber 224
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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