Category Archives: MMA Statistics

Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis (2020-11-28)

23 Nov , 2020,
Jason

Heavyweight (265)
[#3] Curtis Blaydes (14-2-0, -334) vs. [#4] Derrick Lewis (24-7-0, +259)
Curtis Blaydes is the All-Time #33 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Derrick Lewis is the All-Time #29 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Curtis Blaydes (3-0-0)
2020-06-20: W vs. [#7HW+] Alexander Volkov (32-8-0) via UD (48-47, 48-46, 49-46)
2020-01-25: W vs. [#8HW+] Junior dos Santos (21-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:06 of round 2
2019-09-07: W vs. [#22HW+] Shamil Abdurakhimov (20-6-0) via TKO (Elbow and Punch) in 2:22 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Derrick Lewis (3-0-0)
2020-08-08: W vs. [#10HW+] Alexey Oleynik (59-14-1) via TKO (Punches) in 0:21 of round 2
2020-02-08: W vs. [#42HW+] Ilir Latifi (14-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-11-02: W vs. [#17HW+] Blagoy Ivanov (18-4-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Curtis Blaydes -334 73.42%
Elo K170 Curtis Blaydes 2113.49 +15.74 51.80%
Elo Modified Curtis Blaydes 2101.48 +61.24 56.66%
Glicko-1 Curtis Blaydes 2189.51 +68.81 59.78%
WHR Curtis Blaydes 2021.03 +114.89 62.83%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Curtis Blaydes 161, Derrick Lewis 112
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Curtis Blaydes leads 5-4
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#15] Anthony Smith (33-16-0, -119) vs. [#42] Devin Clark (12-4-0, -105)
Anthony Smith is the All-Time #38 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Anthony Smith (1-2-0)
2020-08-29: L vs. [#12LHW] Aleksandar Rakic (13-2-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
2020-05-13: L vs. [#4LHW] Glover Teixeira (32-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:04 of round 5
2019-06-01: W vs. [#19LHW] Alexander Gustafsson (18-7-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:38 of round 4

Last 3 Fights: Devin Clark (2-1-0)
2020-06-06: W vs. [#64LHW] Alonzo Menifield (9-2-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2020-02-15: W vs. [#210MW] Dequan Townsend (22-12-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-26)
2019-10-12: L vs. [#27LHW] Ryan Spann (18-6-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:01 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Anthony Smith -119 51.47%
Elo K170 Anthony Smith 1827.66 +140.26 65.49%
Elo Modified Anthony Smith 1845.49 +142.93 65.15%
Glicko-1 Anthony Smith 1921.91 +220.14 78.03%
WHR Anthony Smith 1786.59 +211.83 72.47%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Anthony Smith 91, Devin Clark 175
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#92] Josh Parisian (13-3-0, -215) vs. [#178] Parker Porter (9-6-0, +174)

Last 3 Fights: Josh Parisian (3-0-0)
2020-08-18: W vs. [#222HW+] Chad Johnson (6-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:43 of round 1
2020-01-29: W vs. [#378MW] Marcus Maulding (8-11-0) via TKO in 3:57 of round 1
2019-12-14: W vs. [#452HW+] Matunga Djikasa (3-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:16 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Parker Porter (2-1-0)
2020-08-15: L vs. [#74HW+] Chris Daukaus (10-3-0) via TKO (Punches and Knee) in 4:28 of round 1
2019-09-07: W vs. [#209HW+] Dirlei Broenstrup (16-8-0) via TKO in 3:17 of round 3
2019-05-31: W vs. [*] Kevin Ray Sears (8-6-0) via Submission (Kimura) in 2:29 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Josh Parisian -215 65.15%
Elo K170 Josh Parisian 1442.09 +197.81 71.17%
Elo Modified Josh Parisian 1457.67 +137.86 64.65%
Glicko-1 Josh Parisian 1514.71 +199.29 75.90%
WHR Josh Parisian 1399.85 +106.77 61.96%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Josh Parisian 102, Parker Porter 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Perez (2020-11-21)

19 Nov , 2020,
Jason

Flyweight Championship (125)
[#1/#4DD/#6P4P] Deiveson Figueiredo (19-1-0, -306) vs. [#4] Alex Perez (24-5-0, +241)
Deiveson Figueiredo is the All-Time #8 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Alex Perez is the All-Time #31 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Deiveson Figueiredo (3-0-0)
2020-07-18: W vs. [#2FLY] Joseph Benavidez (28-7-0) via Technical Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:48 of round 1
2020-02-29: W vs. [#2FLY] Joseph Benavidez (28-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:54 of round 2
2019-10-12: W vs. [#27FLY] Tim Elliott (16-11-1) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:08 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Alex Perez (3-0-0)
2020-06-06: W vs. [#8FLY] Jussier Formiga (23-8-0) via TKO (Leg Kick) in 4:06 of round 1
2020-01-25: W vs. [#32FLY] Jordan Espinosa (15-8-0) via Technical Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 2:33 of round 1
2019-03-30: W vs. [#189BW] Mark De La Rosa (11-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Deiveson Figueiredo -306 71.98%
Elo K170 Deiveson Figueiredo 2120.37 +236.24 74.64%
Elo Modified Deiveson Figueiredo 2080.48 +213.05 71.76%
Glicko-1 Deiveson Figueiredo 2167.01 +275.51 83.00%
WHR Deiveson Figueiredo 1962.32 +211.11 72.40%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Deiveson Figueiredo 126, Alex Perez 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Deiveson Figueiredo leads 2-1
.

Women Flyweight Championship (125)
[#1/#3DD/#3P4P] Valentina Shevchenko (19-3-0, -1569) vs. [#4] Jennifer Maia (18-6-1, +860)
Valentina Shevchenko is the All-Time #5 ranked Women’s fighter.
Jennifer Maia is the All-Time #22 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Valentina Shevchenko (3-0-0)
2020-02-08: W vs. [#3FLY] Katlyn Chookagian (14-4-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 1:03 of round 3
2019-08-10: W vs. [#6FLY] Liz Carmouche (14-7-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2019-06-08: W vs. [#9FLY] Jessica Eye (15-8-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 0:26 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Jennifer Maia (2-1-0)
2020-08-01: W vs. [#16FLY] Joanne Calderwood (14-5-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:29 of round 1
2019-11-02: L vs. [#3FLY] Katlyn Chookagian (14-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-07-20: W vs. [#12FLY] Roxanne Modafferi (25-17-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Valentina Shevchenko -1569 90.02%
Elo K170 Valentina Shevchenko 1908.70 +247.43 75.59%
Elo Modified Valentina Shevchenko 1914.24 +265.70 76.19%
Glicko-1 Valentina Shevchenko 1931.58 +285.00 83.76%
WHR Valentina Shevchenko 1913.37 +326.67 81.65%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Valentina Shevchenko 287, Jennifer Maia 112
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Valentina Shevchenko leads 2-0
.

Welterweight (170)
[#27] Mike Perry (14-6-0, -153) vs. [#61] Tim Means (30-12-1, +127)

Last 3 Fights: Mike Perry (1-2-0)
2020-06-27: W vs. [#151WW] Mickey Gall (6-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-12-14: L vs. [#16WW] Geoff Neal (13-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:30 of round 1
2019-08-10: L vs. [#12WW] Vicente Luque (19-7-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Tim Means (2-1-0)
2020-08-08: W vs. [#93WW] Laureano Staropoli (9-3-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2020-02-15: L vs. [#44WW] Daniel Rodriguez (13-1-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:37 of round 2
2019-12-07: W vs. [#89WW] Thiago Alves (23-15-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:38 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Mike Perry -153 57.85%
Elo K170 Mike Perry 1737.38 +96.22 60.82%
Elo Modified Mike Perry 1763.09 +87.32 59.44%
Glicko-1 Mike Perry 1814.22 +106.02 64.80%
WHR Mike Perry 1665.05 +37.37 54.26%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mike Perry 147, Tim Means 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Mike Perry leads 1-0
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Felder/dos Anjos – Split Decision?!

15 Nov , 2020,
Jason

50-45, 50-45, 47-48

The odd decision of Felder/dos Anjos surfaced some questions on how to handle split decisions where there is one super obvious outlier.  Do you respect that all judges have an equal say?  Do you take the one in the middle (median)?  Something else?

Let’s take a look at the effects of Felder’s rating in the various systems — dos Anjos switched divisions, while Felder remained at 155, which makes him a better subject for this within the standard system.

 

System Win Weights Pre-Fight Post-Fight Diff
Fight Matrix “Standard” 72 (90,97) 427 427 =
ELO “K170” 100 (100,100) 1909 1828 -81
ELO “Modified” 67 (100,100) 1929 1894 -35
Glicko-1 55 (91,91) 1985 1967 -18
WHR 69 (88,99) 1839 1819 -20

The win weights list three weights (the “power” of a win out of 100) for:

  1. The actual fight.
  2. The fight if it were scored 49-46 x3 UD (average).
  3. The fight if it were scored 50-45 x3 UD (majority & median).

In all systems but the standard, Felder lost points.  OK, if we are to get technical, Felder lost 0.0051 points in the standard system, but that had nothing to do with the fight itself.  The standard and the WHR systems were the least affected by this egregious error.

 

 

 

Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Felder (2020-11-14)

9 Nov , 2020,
Jason

Lightweight (155)
[#10WW] Rafael dos Anjos (29-13-0) vs. [#11] Paul Felder (17-5-0)
Rafael dos Anjos is the All-Time #7 ranked Lightweight and #33 ranked Absolute fighter.
Paul Felder is the All-Time #44 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Rafael dos Anjos (1-2-0)
2020-01-25: L vs. [#9WW] Michael Chiesa (17-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-07-20: L vs. [*] Leon Edwards (18-3-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)
2019-05-18: W vs. [#9LW] Kevin Lee (18-6-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:47 of round 4

Last 3 Fights: Paul Felder (2-1-0)
2020-02-22: L vs. [#6LW] Dan Hooker (20-9-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)
2019-09-07: W vs. [#10FW] Edson Barboza (21-9-0) via SD (27-30, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-02-17: W vs. [#122WW] James Vick (13-5-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Elo K170 Rafael dos Anjos 1923.27 +14.23 51.63%
Elo Modified Paul Felder 1943.93 +41.74 54.56%
Glicko-1 Paul Felder 1984.52 +34.31 54.92%
WHR Rafael dos Anjos 1875.00 +36.14 54.12%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rafael dos Anjos 294, Paul Felder 266
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#61] Kalinn Williams (10-1-0, +186) vs. [#127] Abdul Razak Alhassan (10-2-0, -231)

Last 3 Fights: Kalinn Williams (3-0-0)
2020-02-08: W vs. [#72WW] Alex Morono (17-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:27 of round 1
2019-11-27: W vs. [#363WW] Jeremie Holloway (10-4-0) via UD ()
2019-10-26: W vs. [#648MW] Bo Yan (8-11-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:24 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Abdul Razak Alhassan (2-1-0)
2020-07-15: L vs. [#108WW] Mounir Lazzez (10-1-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2018-09-08: W vs. [#36WW] Niko Price (14-4-1) via KO (Punch) in 0:43 of round 1
2018-01-20: W vs. [#58WW] Sabah Homasi (15-8-0) via KO (Punch) in 3:47 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Abdul Razak Alhassan -231 66.61%
Elo K170 Kalinn Williams 1647.41 +73.57 58.33%
Elo Modified Kalinn Williams 1649.39 +14.76 51.62%
Glicko-1 Abdul Razak Alhassan 1675.28 +2.01 50.29%
WHR Abdul Razak Alhassan 1634.50 +121.77 63.56%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kalinn Williams 280, Abdul Razak Alhassan 122
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[*] Julian Marquez (7-2-0, -295) vs. [#230] Saparbek Safarov (9-3-0, +234)

Last 3 Fights: Julian Marquez (2-1-0)
2018-07-06: L vs. [#97MW] Alessio Di Chirico (12-5-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 27-30)
2017-12-16: W vs. [#55MW] Darren Stewart (12-6-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:42 of round 2
2017-08-01: W vs. [#145MW] Phil Hawes (9-2-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 2:20 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Saparbek Safarov (1-2-0)
2020-03-07: L vs. [#58MW] Rodolfo Vieira (7-0-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 2:58 of round 1
2019-03-16: W vs. [*] Nicolae Negumereanu (9-1-0) via UD (29-27, 29-26, 29-26)
2018-02-10: L vs. [*] Tyson Pedro (7-3-0) via Submission (Kimura) in 3:54 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Julian Marquez -295 71.38%
Elo K170 Julian Marquez 1416.04 +10.16 51.16%
Elo Modified Julian Marquez 1511.21 +41.19 54.50%
Glicko-1 Julian Marquez 1549.30 +117.14 66.25%
WHR Julian Marquez 1526.17 +137.85 65.24%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Julian Marquez 862, Saparbek Safarov 252
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Teixeira (2020-10-31)

2 Nov , 2020,
Jason

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#5] Glover Teixeira (31-7-0, +177) vs. [*] Thiago Santos (21-7-0, -219)
Glover Teixeira is the All-Time #21 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Glover Teixeira (3-0-0)
2020-05-13: W vs. [#14LHW] Anthony Smith (33-16-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:04 of round 5
2019-09-14: W vs. [#13LHW] Nikita Krylov (26-7-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-04-27: W vs. [#39LHW] Ion Cutelaba (15-6-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:37 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Thiago Santos (2-1-0)
2019-07-06: L vs. [#1LHW/#6DD/#1P4P] Jon Jones (26-1-0) via SD (47-48, 48-47, 48-47)
2019-02-23: W vs. [#2LHW] Jan Blachowicz (27-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:39 of round 3
2018-12-08: W vs. [*] Jimi Manuwa (17-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:41 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Thiago Santos -219 65.53%
Elo K170 Glover Teixeira 2069.52 +38.31 54.37%
Elo Modified Thiago Santos 2087.11 +47.36 55.16%
Glicko-1 Thiago Santos 2208.58 +75.97 60.76%
WHR Thiago Santos 2009.17 +62.92 57.14%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Glover Teixeira 178, Thiago Santos 490
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#27] Andrei Arlovski (29-19-0, +206) vs. [#36] Tanner Boser (19-6-1, -258)
Andrei Arlovski is the All-Time #19 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Andrei Arlovski (2-1-0)
2020-05-13: W vs. [#48HW+] Philipe Lins (14-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2019-11-02: L vs. [#5HW+] Jairzinho Rozenstruik (11-1-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:29 of round 1
2019-07-20: W vs. [#26HW+] Ben Rothwell (38-13-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Tanner Boser (2-1-0)
2020-07-25: W vs. [#83HW+] Raphael Pessoa (10-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:36 of round 2
2020-06-27: W vs. [#48HW+] Philipe Lins (14-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:41 of round 1
2019-12-21: L vs. [#46HW+] Ciryl Gane (6-0-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Tanner Boser -258 68.80%
Elo K170 Andrei Arlovski 1655.25 +22.64 52.58%
Elo Modified Andrei Arlovski 1708.53 +7.98 50.87%
Glicko-1 Andrei Arlovski 1745.95 +18.47 52.66%
WHR Andrei Arlovski 1696.15 +89.79 60.11%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Andrei Arlovski 178, Tanner Boser 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#16] Raoni Barcelos (15-1-0) vs. [#83] Khalid Taha (14-2-0)

Last 3 Fights: Raoni Barcelos (3-0-0)
2019-12-21: W vs. [#39BW] Said Nurmagomedov (14-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-05-11: W vs. [#274BW] Carlos Huachin (11-5-3) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 4:49 of round 2
2018-11-30: W vs. [*] Chris Gutierrez (15-4-2) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:12 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Khalid Taha (2-1-0)
2019-10-05: W vs. [#117FLY] Bruno Silva (10-6-2) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:00 of round 3
2019-04-13: W vs. [#544LW] Boston Salmon (7-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:25 of round 1
2018-07-22: L vs. [#145FW] Nad Narimani (12-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Elo K170 Raoni Barcelos 1920.02 +297.73 79.58%
Elo Modified Raoni Barcelos 1909.53 +277.03 77.08%
Glicko-1 Raoni Barcelos 1961.00 +304.70 85.24%
WHR Raoni Barcelos 1866.81 +313.13 80.70%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Raoni Barcelos 322, Khalid Taha 399
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Silva vs. Hall (2020-10-31)

26 Oct , 2020,
Jason

Middleweight (185)
[#15] Uriah Hall (15-9-0, -222) vs. [*] Anderson Silva (34-10-0, +179)
Anderson Silva is the All-Time #1 ranked Middleweight and #4 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Uriah Hall (2-1-0)
2019-09-14: W vs. [#22MW] Antonio Carlos Jr. (10-4-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2018-12-29: W vs. [#108MW] Bevon Lewis (7-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:32 of round 3
2018-07-07: L vs. [#5MW] Paulo Costa (13-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:36 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Anderson Silva (1-2-0)
2019-05-11: L vs. [#8MW] Jared Cannonier (13-5-0) via TKO (Leg Injury) in 4:47 of round 1
2019-02-09: L vs. [#1MW/#6DD/#6P4P] Israel Adesanya (20-0-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2017-02-11: W vs. [#11MW] Derek Brunson (21-7-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Uriah Hall -222 65.79%
Elo K170 Uriah Hall 1825.30 +63.21 57.17%
Elo Modified Uriah Hall 1822.38 +34.84 53.81%
Glicko-1 Uriah Hall 1845.76 +37.04 55.31%
WHR Uriah Hall 1760.78 +16.18 51.85%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Uriah Hall 413, Anderson Silva 539
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Anderson Silva leads 2-1
.

Featherweight (145)
[#26] Andre Fili (21-7-0, +138) vs. [#58] Bryce Mitchell (13-0-0, -167)

Last 3 Fights: Andre Fili (2-1-0)
2020-06-13: W vs. [#65FW] Charles Jourdain (10-3-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2020-01-18: L vs. [#21FW] Sodiq Yusuff (11-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-07-13: W vs. [*] Sheymon Moraes (11-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:07 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Bryce Mitchell (3-0-0)
2020-05-09: W vs. [#101LW] Charles Rosa (13-4-0) via UD (30-24, 30-25, 30-25)
2019-12-07: W vs. [#195FW] Matt Sayles (8-3-0) via Submission (Twister) in 4:20 of round 1
2019-03-23: W vs. [#177FW] Bobby Moffett (13-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Bryce Mitchell -167 59.81%
Elo K170 Andre Fili 1790.70 +40.78 54.64%
Elo Modified Bryce Mitchell 1762.16 +22.88 52.50%
Glicko-1 Andre Fili 1757.46 +5.41 50.78%
WHR Bryce Mitchell 1682.05 +58.41 56.63%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Andre Fili 140, Bryce Mitchell 175
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#37] Kevin Holland (19-5-0) vs. [#40] Makhmud Muradov (24-6-0)

Last 3 Fights: Kevin Holland (3-0-0)
2020-09-19: W vs. [#53MW] Darren Stewart (12-6-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2020-08-08: W vs. [#80MW] Joaquin Buckley (11-3-0) via TKO (Punch) in 0:43 of round 3
2020-05-16: W vs. [#122MW] Anthony Hernandez (7-2-0) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 1:39 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Makhmud Muradov (3-0-0)
2019-12-07: W vs. [#99MW] Trevor Smith (15-10-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:09 of round 3
2019-09-28: W vs. [#93MW] Alessio Di Chirico (12-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-07-27: W vs. [#326MW] Wendell de Oliveira Marqu (31-15-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:56 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Elo K170 Makhmud Muradov 1813.34 +6.22 50.71%
Elo Modified Makhmud Muradov 1825.83 +69.70 57.57%
Glicko-1 Makhmud Muradov 1894.71 +120.34 66.66%
WHR Makhmud Muradov 1717.92 +35.78 54.08%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kevin Holland 42, Makhmud Muradov 329
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Khabib vs. Gaethje (2020-10-24)

19 Oct , 2020,
Jason

Lightweight Championship (155)
[#1/#3DD/#6P4P] Khabib Nurmagomedov (28-0-0, -335) vs. [#2/#6DD/#8P4P] Justin Gaethje (22-2-0, +260)
Khabib Nurmagomedov is the All-Time #2 ranked Lightweight and #21 ranked Absolute fighter.
Justin Gaethje is the All-Time #16 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Khabib Nurmagomedov (3-0-0)
2019-09-07: W vs. [#3LW] Dustin Poirier (26-6-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:06 of round 3
2018-10-06: W vs. [#10WW] Conor McGregor (22-4-0) via Submission (Neck Crank) in 3:03 of round 4
2018-04-07: W vs. [#14LW] Al Iaquinta (15-6-1) via UD (50-44, 50-43, 50-43)

Last 3 Fights: Justin Gaethje (3-0-0)
2020-05-09: W vs. [#4LW] Tony Ferguson (25-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:39 of round 5
2019-09-14: W vs. [#24WW] Donald Cerrone (36-15-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:18 of round 1
2019-03-30: W vs. [#10FW] Edson Barboza (21-9-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:30 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Khabib Nurmagomedov -335 73.48%
Elo K170 Khabib Nurmagomedov 2424.56 +125.88 63.99%
Elo Modified Khabib Nurmagomedov 2355.97 +125.33 63.38%
Glicko-1 Khabib Nurmagomedov 2450.23 +98.16 63.76%
WHR Khabib Nurmagomedov 2342.23 +257.16 76.40%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Khabib Nurmagomedov 413, Justin Gaethje 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Khabib Nurmagomedov leads 3-2
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Middleweight (185)
[#2] Robert Whittaker (21-5-0, -107) vs. [#7] Jared Cannonier (13-4-0, -116)
Robert Whittaker is the All-Time #14 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Robert Whittaker (2-1-0)
2020-07-25: W vs. [#8MW] Darren Till (18-3-1) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)
2019-10-05: L vs. [#1MW/#7DD/#5P4P] Israel Adesanya (20-0-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:33 of round 2
2018-06-09: W vs. [#6MW] Yoel Romero (13-5-0) via SD (47-48, 48-47, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Jared Cannonier (3-0-0)
2019-09-28: W vs. [#3MW] Jack Hermansson (21-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:27 of round 2
2019-05-11: W vs. [*] Anderson Silva (34-10-0) via TKO (Leg Injury) in 4:47 of round 1
2018-11-03: W vs. [#27MW] David Branch (22-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:29 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jared Cannonier -116 50.95%
Elo K170 Robert Whittaker 2254.15 +337.51 82.37%
Elo Modified Robert Whittaker 2182.03 +279.40 77.26%
Glicko-1 Robert Whittaker 2239.90 +208.78 76.89%
WHR Robert Whittaker 1971.69 +88.78 60.00%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Robert Whittaker 91, Jared Cannonier 392
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[#8] Alexander Volkov (31-8-0, -165) vs. [#19] Walt Harris (13-8-0, +136)
Alexander Volkov is the All-Time #40 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Alexander Volkov (1-2-0)
2020-06-20: L vs. [#3HW+] Curtis Blaydes (14-2-0) via UD (48-47, 48-46, 49-46)
2019-11-09: W vs. [#80HW+] Greg Hardy (6-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-10-06: L vs. [#4HW+] Derrick Lewis (24-7-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:49 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Walt Harris (2-1-0)
2020-05-16: L vs. [#6HW+] Alistair Overeem (47-18-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:00 of round 2
2019-07-20: W vs. [#10HW+] Alexey Oleynik (59-14-1) via KO (Knee and Punches) in 0:12 of round 1
2019-05-04: W vs. [#38HW+] Sergey Spivak (11-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:50 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Alexander Volkov -165 59.50%
Elo K170 Alexander Volkov 1896.67 +236.07 74.62%
Elo Modified Alexander Volkov 1919.77 +196.98 70.31%
Glicko-1 Alexander Volkov 1988.19 +187.71 74.66%
WHR Alexander Volkov 1826.62 +146.53 66.14%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexander Volkov 126, Walt Harris 161
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Alexander Volkov leads 1-0
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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Korean Zombie (2020-10-17)

13 Oct , 2020,
Jason

Featherweight (145)
[#4] Chan Sung Jung (16-5-0, -190) vs. [*] Brian Ortega (14-1-0, +158)
Chan Sung Jung is the All-Time #29 ranked Featherweight fighter.
Brian Ortega is the All-Time #16 ranked Featherweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Chan Sung Jung (2-1-0)
2019-12-21: W vs. [#5BW] Frankie Edgar (24-8-1) via TKO (Punches) in 3:18 of round 1
2019-06-22: W vs. [#25LW] Renato Carneiro (14-3-1) via TKO (Punches) in 0:58 of round 1
2018-11-10: L vs. [#12FW] Yair Rodriguez (13-2-0) via KO (Elbow) in 4:59 of round 5

Last 3 Fights: Brian Ortega (2-1-0)
2018-12-08: L vs. [#2FW/#8DD] Max Holloway (21-6-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 4
2018-03-03: W vs. [#5BW] Frankie Edgar (24-8-1) via KO (Punches) in 4:44 of round 1
2017-12-09: W vs. [#21FW] Cub Swanson (26-11-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:22 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Chan Sung Jung -190 62.83%
Elo K170 Brian Ortega 2100.99 +133.68 64.81%
Elo Modified Brian Ortega 2046.71 +99.02 60.67%
Glicko-1 Brian Ortega 2121.33 +124.82 67.23%
WHR Brian Ortega 1958.40 +42.46 54.83%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Chan Sung Jung 301, Brian Ortega 679
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[#48] Ciryl Gane (6-0-0) vs. [#59] Ante Delija (17-3-0)

Last 3 Fights: Ciryl Gane (3-0-0)
2019-12-21: W vs. [#36HW+] Tanner Boser (19-6-1) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)
2019-10-26: W vs. [#148HW+] Dontale Mayes (7-4-0) via Submission (Heel Hook) in 4:46 of round 3
2019-08-10: W vs. [#85HW+] Raphael Pessoa (10-2-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 4:12 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Ante Delija (3-0-0)
2019-11-09: W vs. [#78HW+] Oli Thompson (21-12-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:58 of round 2
2019-06-06: W vs. [#138HW+] Carl Seumanutafa (12-11-0) via UD ()
2018-05-06: W vs. [*] Ricardo Prasel (10-2-0) via UD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Elo K170 Ante Delija 1634.09 +5.18 50.59%
Elo Modified Ciryl Gane 1734.15 +85.51 59.25%
Glicko-1 Ciryl Gane 1691.03 +5.06 50.73%
WHR Ante Delija 1657.42 +21.03 52.40%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ciryl Gane 301, Ante Delija 343
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Flyweight (125)
[#4SW/#8DD/#10P4P] Jessica Andrade (20-8-0, -143) vs. [#2/#8P4P] Katlyn Chookagian (14-3-0, +118)
Jessica Andrade is the All-Time #20 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jessica Andrade (1-2-0)
2020-07-11: L vs. [#2SW/#4P4P] Rose Namajunas (9-4-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-08-31: L vs. [#1SW/#2DD/#2P4P] Weili Zhang (21-1-0) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 0:42 of round 1
2019-05-11: W vs. [#2SW/#4P4P] Rose Namajunas (9-4-0) via KO (Slam) in 2:58 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Katlyn Chookagian (2-1-0)
2020-05-30: W vs. [#21FLY] Antonina Shevchenko (8-2-0) via UD (30-25, 30-25, 30-25)
2020-02-08: L vs. [#1FLY/#3DD/#3P4P] Valentina Shevchenko (19-3-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 1:03 of round 3
2019-11-02: W vs. [#3FLY] Jennifer Maia (18-6-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jessica Andrade -143 56.19%
Elo K170 Katlyn Chookagian 1700.67 +1.60 50.18%
Elo Modified Jessica Andrade 1745.72 +28.05 53.06%
Glicko-1 Jessica Andrade 1759.23 +51.35 57.34%
WHR Jessica Andrade 1644.23 +13.01 51.49%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jessica Andrade 98, Katlyn Chookagian 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Katlyn Chookagian leads 2-1
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Fight Matrix Program – Bellator 249: Cyborg vs. Blencowe (2020-10-15)

11 Oct , 2020,
Jason

Women Featherweight (145)
[#2/#4DD/#5P4P] Cristiane Justino (22-2-0) vs. [#5] Arlene Blencowe (13-7-0)
Cristiane Justino is the All-Time #1 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Cristiane Justino (2-1-0)
2020-01-25: W vs. [#3FW] Julia Budd (14-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:14 of round 4
2019-07-27: W vs. [#6FW] Felicia Spencer (8-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-12-29: L vs. [#1FW/#1DD/#1P4P] Amanda Nunes (20-4-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:51 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Arlene Blencowe (3-0-0)
2019-11-08: W vs. [#9FW] Leslie Smith (12-8-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-07-12: W vs. [#16FW] Amanda Bell (7-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:22 of round 1
2018-09-29: W vs. [#48FW] Amber Leibrock (3-4-0) via TKO (Slam and Punches) in 1:23 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Elo K170 Cristiane Justino 1881.38 +326.54 81.63%
Elo Modified Cristiane Justino 1874.18 +290.54 78.11%
Glicko-1 Cristiane Justino 1932.81 +350.87 88.28%
WHR Cristiane Justino 1937.92 +386.88 85.41%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cristiane Justino 264, Arlene Blencowe 342
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Cristiane Justino leads 5-2
.

Lightweight (155)
[#20] Patricky Freire (23-9-0) vs. [#154WW] Jaleel Willis (13-2-0)
Patricky Freire is the All-Time #47 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Patricky Freire (2-1-0)
2019-12-31: L vs. [#12LW] Tofiq Musayev (18-3-0) via UD ()
2019-12-31: W vs. [#78LW] Luiz Gustavo Felix dos Sa (10-2-0) via TKO (Punches and Soccer Kick) in 0:28 of round 1
2019-10-12: W vs. [#131LW] Tatsuya Kawajiri (37-14-2) via KO (Flying Knee and Punches) in 1:10 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Jaleel Willis (3-0-0)
2020-08-21: W vs. [#234WW] Vinicius de Jesus (9-3-0) via UD ()
2020-03-07: W vs. [NA] James Horne (3-4-0) via UD ()
2019-09-28: W vs. [#887WW] James Warfield (23-16-0) via UD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Elo K170 Patricky Freire 1900.02 +294.42 79.33%
Elo Modified Patricky Freire 1868.16 +228.42 73.10%
Glicko-1 Patricky Freire 1934.59 +314.13 85.92%
WHR Patricky Freire 1812.14 +313.37 80.72%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Patricky Freire 289, Jaleel Willis 55
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#29] Leandro Higo (19-5-0) vs. [#74] Ricky Bandejas (13-4-0)

Last 3 Fights: Leandro Higo (1-2-0)
2019-09-28: W vs. [#77BW] Shawn Bunch (9-5-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:34 of round 2
2018-09-29: L vs. [#92FW] Aaron Pico (6-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:19 of round 1
2018-03-02: L vs. [#14FW] Darrion Caldwell (15-3-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:36 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Ricky Bandejas (2-1-0)
2020-07-24: L vs. [#27BW] Sergio Pettis (20-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2020-02-22: W vs. [#139BW] Frans Mlambo (9-5-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:25 of round 2
2019-08-24: W vs. [#553BW] Ahmet Kayretli (9-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:21 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Elo K170 Leandro Higo 1643.56 +98.69 61.08%
Elo Modified Leandro Higo 1687.81 +102.58 61.04%
Glicko-1 Leandro Higo 1698.36 +111.74 65.55%
WHR Leandro Higo 1565.45 +2.52 50.29%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Leandro Higo 383, Ricky Bandejas 83
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen (2020-10-10)

5 Oct , 2020,
Jason

Bantamweight (135)
[#2] Marlon Moraes (23-6-1, +111) vs. [#10] Cory Sandhagen (12-2-0, -136)
Marlon Moraes is the All-Time #9 ranked Bantamweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Marlon Moraes (2-1-0)
2019-12-14: W vs. [#5BW] Jose Aldo (28-7-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2019-06-08: L vs. [*] Henry Cejudo (16-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:51 of round 3
2019-02-02: W vs. [#25BW] Raphael Assuncao (27-8-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:17 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Cory Sandhagen (2-1-0)
2020-06-06: L vs. [#3BW] Aljamain Sterling (19-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:28 of round 1
2019-08-17: W vs. [#25BW] Raphael Assuncao (27-8-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-04-27: W vs. [#28FW] John Lineker (32-9-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Cory Sandhagen -136 54.87%
Elo K170 Marlon Moraes 2161.65 +262.85 76.87%
Elo Modified Marlon Moraes 2067.79 +225.07 72.81%
Glicko-1 Marlon Moraes 2111.68 +241.90 80.10%
WHR Marlon Moraes 1937.07 +210.61 72.36%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Marlon Moraes 301, Cory Sandhagen 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Marlon Moraes leads 2-1
.

Featherweight (145)
[#18] Edson Barboza (20-9-0, -256) vs. [#45] Makwan Amirkhani (16-4-0, +206)

Last 3 Fights: Edson Barboza (0-3-0)
2020-05-16: L vs. [#10FW] Dan Ige (14-3-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)
2019-09-07: L vs. [#11LW] Paul Felder (17-5-0) via SD (27-30, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-03-30: L vs. [#2LW/#6DD/#8P4P] Justin Gaethje (22-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:30 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Makwan Amirkhani (2-1-0)
2020-07-11: W vs. [#175FW] Danny Henry (12-4-0) via Technical Submission (Anaconda Choke) in 3:15 of round 1
2019-11-02: L vs. [#19FW] Shane Burgos (13-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:32 of round 3
2019-06-01: W vs. [#150FW] Chris Fishgold (18-4-1) via Submission (Anaconda Choke) in 4:25 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Edson Barboza -256 68.75%
Elo K170 Edson Barboza 1774.93 +43.31 54.93%
Elo Modified Edson Barboza 1859.82 +131.36 63.99%
Glicko-1 Edson Barboza 1917.99 +153.90 70.81%
WHR Edson Barboza 1794.13 +148.90 66.38%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Edson Barboza 147, Makwan Amirkhani 91
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#17] Marcin Tybura (19-6-0, +145) vs. [#25] Ben Rothwell (38-12-0, -174)
Ben Rothwell is the All-Time #47 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Marcin Tybura (2-1-0)
2020-07-11: W vs. [#29LHW] Maxim Grishin (30-8-2) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-27)
2020-02-29: W vs. [#38HW+] Sergey Spivak (11-2-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-09-14: L vs. [#15HW+] Augusto Sakai (15-2-1) via KO (Punches) in 0:59 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Ben Rothwell (2-1-0)
2020-05-13: W vs. [#21LHW] Ovince St. Preux (25-14-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2019-12-07: W vs. [#35HW+] Stefan Struve (29-12-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:57 of round 2
2019-07-20: L vs. [#27HW+] Andrei Arlovski (29-19-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ben Rothwell -174 60.87%
Elo K170 Ben Rothwell 1794.30 +14.09 51.61%
Elo Modified Marcin Tybura 1791.19 +22.62 52.47%
Glicko-1 Ben Rothwell 1836.16 +28.87 54.14%
WHR Ben Rothwell 1719.24 +11.80 51.35%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Marcin Tybura 91, Ben Rothwell 150
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Marcin Tybura leads 2-1
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