This Week’s WHR Parlays… (Updated)
Last week was a good week. Technically, two out of three parlays hit — the “underdog” and the “safe” options. Jason Butcher, who was featured in the “underdog” parlay, withdrew from his fight. This reduced the underdog option to one fight, but it still would’ve cashed at a lesser payout.
I’m going to start tracking progress back to the start of the weekly 3-parlay posts and include that ongoing. This is post #3.
Here we go…
Bouts considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
- Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
- Both fighters must have at least 5 fights with at least 1 draw or 1 loss. More data makes WHR happy.
- Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
- Major organizations only. If it is a dead week, I’ll bend. Other interesting bets may be posted in comments.
Now for the parlays…
Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis (04-06-2024)
Middleweight (185)
[#9] Brendan Allen (23-5-0, -208) vs. [#21] Chris Curtis (31-10-0, +168)
Last 3 Fights: Brendan Allen (3-0-0)
2023-11-18: W vs. [#18MW] Paul Craig (17-7-1) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 0:38 of round 3
2023-06-24: W vs. [#42MW] Bruno Silva (23-11-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:39 of round 1
2023-02-25: W vs. [#20MW] Andre Muniz (24-6-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:25 of round 3
Last 3 Fights: Chris Curtis (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2024-01-20: W vs. [#38MW] Marc-Andre Barriault (17-7-0) via SD (28-29, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-06-10: NC vs. [#13MW] Nassourdine Imavov (13-4-0)
2023-04-08: L vs. [#26WW] Kelvin Gastelum (18-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Brendan Allen | -208 | 64.41% | |
| Elo K170 | Brendan Allen | 2095.28 | +233.56 | 79.32% |
| Elo Modified | Brendan Allen | 2085.52 | +251.76 | 80.99% |
| Glicko-1 | Brendan Allen | 2185.78 | +289.72 | 84.13% |
| WHR | Brendan Allen | 1973.53 | +164.11 | 72.00% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brendan Allen 140, Chris Curtis 77
Previous Match-up Record: Chris Curtis leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#41] Damon Jackson (22-6-1, +156) vs. [#82] Alexander Hernandez (14-7-0, -192)
Last 3 Fights: Damon Jackson (1-2-0)
2023-08-05: L vs. [#38FW] Billy Quarantillo (18-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-01-14: L vs. [#16FW] Dan Ige (18-7-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:13 of round 2
2022-09-17: W vs. [#76FW] Pat Sabatini (18-5-0) via TKO (Submission to Punches) in 1:09 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Alexander Hernandez (1-2-0)
2023-10-07: L vs. [#35FW] Bill Algeo (18-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-02-18: W vs. [#54LW] Jim Miller (37-17-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-12-10: L vs. [#38FW] Billy Quarantillo (18-6-0) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 4:30 of round 2
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Alexander Hernandez | -192 | 62.73% | |
| Elo K170 | Damon Jackson | 1656.37 | +37.89 | 55.43% |
| Elo Modified | Damon Jackson | 1661.48 | +32.25 | 54.63% |
| Glicko-1 | Damon Jackson | 1704.49 | +12.92 | 51.86% |
| WHR | Damon Jackson | 1665.57 | +91.26 | 62.84% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Damon Jackson 245, Alexander Hernandez 182
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#46] Jose Mariscal (15-6-0, +135) vs. [#110] Morgan Charriere (19-9-1, -166)
Last 3 Fights: Jose Mariscal (3-0-0)
2023-09-09: W vs. [#144FW] Jack Jenkins (12-3-0) via TKO (Arm Injury) in 3:19 of round 2
2023-06-24: W vs. [#159LW] Trevor Peek (9-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-02-17: W vs. [#118FW] Guilherme Faria de Souza (19-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:02 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Morgan Charriere (3-0-0)
2023-09-02: W vs. [#534FW] Manolo Zecchini (11-4-0) via KO (Body Kick and Punches) in 3:51 of round 1
2023-07-21: W vs. [#332LW] Diego Silva (16-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:13 of round 3
2023-04-29: W vs. [#924FW] Pedro Souza (18-5-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Morgan Charriere | -166 | 59.46% | |
| Elo K170 | Jose Mariscal | 1727.04 | +106.94 | 64.92% |
| Elo Modified | Jose Mariscal | 1742.40 | +109.44 | 65.25% |
| Glicko-1 | Jose Mariscal | 1774.05 | +58.91 | 58.40% |
| WHR | Jose Mariscal | 1710.42 | +82.76 | 61.69% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jose Mariscal 210, Morgan Charriere 217
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot (03-30-2024)
Women Flyweight (125)
[#3/#8DD/#8P4P] Manon Fiorot (11-1-0, +116) vs. [#4/#7P4P] Erin Blanchfield (12-1-0, -141)
Manon Fiorot is the All-Time #44 ranked Women’s fighter.
Erin Blanchfield is the All-Time #48 ranked Women’s fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Manon Fiorot (3-0-0)
2023-09-02: W vs. [#5FLY/#3P4P] Rose Namajunas (12-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2022-10-22: W vs. [#10FLY] Katlyn Cerminara (18-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-03-26: W vs. [#12FLY] Jennifer Maia (21-10-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Last 3 Fights: Erin Blanchfield (3-0-0)
2023-08-26: W vs. [#9FLY] Taila Santos (19-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-02-18: W vs. [#5SW] Jessica Andrade (25-12-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:37 of round 2
2022-11-12: W vs. [#34SW] Molly McCann (14-6-0) via Submission (Kimura) in 3:37 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Erin Blanchfield | -141 | 55.82% | |
| Elo K170 | Manon Fiorot | 1900.55 | +21.15 | 53.04% |
| Elo Modified | Erin Blanchfield | 1903.15 | +29.37 | 54.22% |
| Glicko-1 | Erin Blanchfield | 1926.20 | +55.87 | 57.97% |
| WHR | Erin Blanchfield | 1797.42 | +0.53 | 50.08% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Manon Fiorot 210, Erin Blanchfield 217
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#11] Vicente Luque (22-9-1, -148) vs. [#25] Joaquin Buckley (17-6-0, +121)
Vicente Luque is the All-Time #41 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Vicente Luque (1-2-0)
2023-08-12: W vs. [#11LW] Rafael dos Anjos (32-16-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
2022-08-06: L vs. [#15WW] Geoff Neal (15-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:01 of round 3
2022-04-16: L vs. [#3WW] Belal Muhammad (23-3-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
Last 3 Fights: Joaquin Buckley (2-1-0)
2023-10-07: W vs. [#35WW] Alex Morono (23-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-27)
2023-05-20: W vs. [#81WW] Andre Fialho (16-8-0) via TKO (Head Kick) in 4:15 of round 2
2022-12-10: L vs. [#21MW] Chris Curtis (31-10-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:49 of round 2
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Vicente Luque | -148 | 56.87% | |
| Elo K170 | Vicente Luque | 2059.66 | +230.09 | 79.00% |
| Elo Modified | Vicente Luque | 2021.41 | +189.63 | 74.87% |
| Glicko-1 | Vicente Luque | 2070.41 | +188.13 | 74.70% |
| WHR | Vicente Luque | 1890.49 | +171.19 | 72.82% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Vicente Luque 231, Joaquin Buckley 175
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#32] Bruno Silva (23-10-0, -277) vs. [#66] Chris Weidman (15-7-0, +217)
Chris Weidman is the All-Time #3 ranked Middleweight and #22 ranked Absolute fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Bruno Silva (1-2-0)
2023-10-21: L vs. [#23MW] Sharabutdin Magomedov (13-0-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-06-24: L vs. [#9MW] Brendan Allen (23-5-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:39 of round 1
2023-04-22: W vs. [#33MW] Brad Tavares (20-9-0) via TKO (Knee and Punch) in 3:35 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Chris Weidman (1-2-0)
2023-08-19: L vs. [#33MW] Brad Tavares (20-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-04-24: L vs. [*] Uriah Hall (17-11-0) via TKO (Leg Injury) in 0:17 of round 1
2020-08-08: W vs. [*] Omari Akhmedov (24-8-1) via UD (29-27, 29-27, 29-28)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Bruno Silva | -277 | 69.95% | |
| Elo K170 | Chris Weidman | 1745.05 | +84.73 | 61.96% |
| Elo Modified | Chris Weidman | 1771.85 | +85.32 | 62.04% |
| Glicko-1 | Chris Weidman | 1791.07 | +54.93 | 57.84% |
| WHR | Bruno Silva | 1683.24 | +148.55 | 70.17% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Bruno Silva 161, Chris Weidman 224
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Bruno Silva leads 1-0
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This Week’s WHR Parlays…
I know I said in my last post, I was going to cover the rest of March in that one, but changed my mind.
In this post, I’m going to cover this week’s fights and will now feature three different parlays:
Bouts considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
- Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
- Both fighters must have at least 5 fights with at least 1 draw or 1 loss. More data makes WHR happy.
- Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
- Major organizations only. I may leave comments on interesting bets for other organizations.
Now for the parlays…
Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas (03-23-2024)
Women Flyweight (125)
[#9/#4P4P] Rose Namajunas (11-6-0, -177) vs. [#6SW] Amanda Ribas (12-4-0, +146)
Rose Namajunas is the All-Time #10 ranked Women’s fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Rose Namajunas (1-2-0)
2023-09-02: L vs. [#3FLY/#7DD/#8P4P] Manon Fiorot (11-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2022-05-07: L vs. [*] Carla Esparza (19-7-0) via SD ()
2021-11-06: W vs. [#1SW/#1DD/#1P4P] Weili Zhang (24-3-0) via SD (47-48, 49-46, 48-47)
Last 3 Fights: Amanda Ribas (2-1-0)
2023-11-18: W vs. [#29SW] Luana Pinheiro (11-2-0) via TKO (Spinning Wheel Kick and Punches) in 3:53 of round 3
2023-06-24: L vs. [#5FLY] Maycee Barber (14-2-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 3:42 of round 2
2023-03-04: W vs. [#11FLY] Viviane Araujo (12-6-0) via UD (29-27, 30-26, 30-27)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Rose Namajunas | -177 | 61.11% | |
| Elo K170 | Rose Namajunas | 1779.79 | +124.26 | 67.15% |
| Elo Modified | Rose Namajunas | 1755.84 | +84.86 | 61.97% |
| Glicko-1 | Rose Namajunas | 1735.05 | +75.64 | 60.72% |
| WHR | Rose Namajunas | 1699.09 | +61.24 | 58.72% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rose Namajunas 203, Amanda Ribas 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[#60] Justin Tafa (7-3-0, +209) vs. [#68] Karl Williams (9-1-0, -267)
Last 3 Fights: Justin Tafa (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2023-09-09: W vs. [#125HW+] Austen Lane (12-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:22 of round 1
2023-06-24: NC vs. [#125HW+] Austen Lane (12-4-0)
2023-02-11: W vs. [#120HW+] Parker Porter (13-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:06 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Karl Williams (3-0-0)
2023-05-13: W vs. [#69HW+] Chase Sherman (18-12-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2023-03-11: W vs. [#169HW+] Lukasz Brzeski (8-4-1) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-26)
2022-09-06: W vs. [*] Jimmy Lawson (4-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Karl Williams | -267 | 69.21% | |
| Elo K170 | Karl Williams | 1548.72 | +32.94 | 54.73% |
| Elo Modified | Karl Williams | 1622.79 | +50.33 | 57.19% |
| Glicko-1 | Justin Tafa | 1623.74 | +50.05 | 57.15% |
| WHR | Justin Tafa | 1521.04 | +53.90 | 57.70% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Justin Tafa 196, Karl Williams 315
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#63] Edmen Shahbazyan (12-4-0, -192) vs. [#156] A.J. Dobson (7-2-0, +156)
Last 3 Fights: Edmen Shahbazyan (1-2-0)
2023-05-20: L vs. [#25MW] Anthony Hernandez (12-2-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 1:01 of round 3
2022-12-10: W vs. [*] Dalcha Lungiambula (11-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:41 of round 2
2021-11-06: L vs. [#13MW] Nassourdine Imavov (13-4-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 4:42 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: A.J. Dobson (1-2-0)
2023-08-12: W vs. [#175MW] Tafon Nchukwi (6-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-10-22: L vs. [#80MW] Armen Petrosyan (9-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-02-12: L vs. [#107MW] Jacob Malkoun (7-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Edmen Shahbazyan | -192 | 62.73% | |
| Elo K170 | Edmen Shahbazyan | 1578.86 | +173.80 | 73.12% |
| Elo Modified | Edmen Shahbazyan | 1592.60 | +100.31 | 64.05% |
| Glicko-1 | Edmen Shahbazyan | 1618.65 | +166.34 | 72.26% |
| WHR | Edmen Shahbazyan | 1543.43 | +80.90 | 61.44% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Edmen Shahbazyan 308, A.J. Dobson 224
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura (03-16-2024)
Heavyweight (265)
[#10] Tai Tuivasa (14-6-0, -128) vs. [#16] Marcin Tybura (24-8-0, +104)
Tai Tuivasa is the All-Time #49 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Tai Tuivasa (0-3-0)
2023-09-09: L vs. [#6HW+] Alexander Volkov (37-10-0) via Submission (Ezekiel Choke) in 4:37 of round 2
2022-12-03: L vs. [#4HW+] Sergei Pavlovich (18-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:54 of round 1
2022-09-03: L vs. [#2HW+] Ciryl Gane (12-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:23 of round 3
Last 3 Fights: Marcin Tybura (2-1-0)
2023-07-22: L vs. [#3HW+] Tom Aspinall (14-3-0) via TKO (Elbow and Punches) in 1:13 of round 1
2023-02-04: W vs. [#25HW+] Blagoy Ivanov (19-6-0) via UD ()
2022-08-20: W vs. [#20HW+] Alexander Romanov (17-2-0) via MD (29-28, 29-28, 28-28)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Tai Tuivasa | -128 | 53.38% | |
| Elo K170 | Marcin Tybura | 1862.59 | +104.08 | 64.55% |
| Elo Modified | Marcin Tybura | 1878.58 | +104.84 | 64.65% |
| Glicko-1 | Marcin Tybura | 1900.89 | +78.35 | 61.09% |
| WHR | Marcin Tybura | 1781.69 | +89.16 | 62.55% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Tai Tuivasa 189, Marcin Tybura 238
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 5 win(s) against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#31] Kennedy Nzechukwu (12-4-0, -493) vs. [#45] Ovince St. Preux (26-17-0, +350)
Last 3 Fights: Kennedy Nzechukwu (2-1-0)
2023-08-05: L vs. [#22LHW] Dustin Jacoby (19-8-1) via TKO (Punches) in 1:22 of round 1
2023-05-06: W vs. [#44LHW] Devin Clark (14-9-0) via Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:28 of round 2
2022-11-19: W vs. [#29LHW] Ion Cutelaba (17-10-1) via TKO (Flying Knee and Punches) in 1:02 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Ovince St. Preux (1-2-0)
2023-02-18: L vs. [#18LHW] Philipe Lins (18-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:49 of round 1
2022-05-07: W vs. [*] Mauricio Rua (27-14-1) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 29-28)
2021-06-26: L vs. [#64LHW] Tanner Boser (21-10-1) via KO (Punches) in 2:31 of round 2
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Kennedy Nzechukwu | -493 | 78.91% | |
| Elo K170 | Kennedy Nzechukwu | 1615.71 | +83.10 | 61.74% |
| Elo Modified | Kennedy Nzechukwu | 1662.55 | +112.03 | 65.59% |
| Glicko-1 | Kennedy Nzechukwu | 1701.10 | +149.64 | 70.29% |
| WHR | Kennedy Nzechukwu | 1659.57 | +120.40 | 66.67% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kennedy Nzechukwu 224, Ovince St. Preux 392
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[*] Mike Davis (10-2-0, -260) vs. [*] Natan Levy (8-1-0, +207)
Last 3 Fights: Mike Davis (3-0-0)
2022-10-01: W vs. [#176LW] Viacheslav Borshchev (7-3-1) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 29-28)
2021-01-20: W vs. [#86LW] Mason Jones (14-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-10-12: W vs. [*] Thomas Gifford (17-10-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:45 of round 3
Last 3 Fights: Natan Levy (2-1-0)
2022-12-03: W vs. [#715LW] Genaro Valdez (10-3-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2022-04-30: W vs. [#209LW] Mike Breeden (11-6-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2021-11-20: L vs. [#41LW] Rafa Garcia (16-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Mike Davis | -260 | 68.91% | |
| Elo K170 | Mike Davis | 1626.84 | +90.45 | 62.73% |
| Elo Modified | Mike Davis | 1661.28 | +100.34 | 64.05% |
| Glicko-1 | Mike Davis | 1678.91 | +148.62 | 70.17% |
| WHR | Mike Davis | 1664.94 | +201.00 | 76.08% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mike Davis 532, Natan Levy 469
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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