This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays
Another not so great week… but like every gambler in the red, I just can’t stop.
Since the “smart” parlay is supposed to be smart, I’ve been hesitant to post some of the underdogs the associated query has chosen recently. Why? Because often, the rating systems favor proven older betting underdogs on the tail-end of their career, rather than good, only somewhat proven younger fighters entering their prime. In this regard, the smart parlay is well… kind of dumb and the betters aren’t. Every year of age advantage for the younger fighter results in ~1.2% additional chance of winning. I am considering implementing this somehow, but I don’t always have birth dates for fighters and it further complicates things. We’ll see.
Bouts considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
- Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
- Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
- Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
- Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.
Now for the options…
Fight Matrix Program – UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg (05-04-2024)
Flyweight Championship (125)
[#1/#3DD/#3P4P] Alexandre Pantoja (27-5-0, -253) vs. [#14] Steve Erceg (12-1-0, +201)
Alexandre Pantoja is the All-Time #9 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Alexandre Pantoja (3-0-0)
2023-12-16: W vs. [#2FLY/#6DD] Brandon Royval (16-7-0) via UD (49-46, 50-45, 50-45)
2023-07-08: W vs. [#3FLY/#7DD] Brandon Moreno (21-8-2) via SD (46-49, 48-47, 48-47)
2022-07-30: W vs. [#10FLY] Alex Perez (25-8-0) via Submission (Neck Crank) in 1:31 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Steve Erceg (3-0-0)
2024-03-02: W vs. [#58FLY] Matt Schnell (16-9-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:26 of round 2
2023-11-11: W vs. [#75FLY] Alessandro Costa (13-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-06-10: W vs. [#53FLY] David Dvorak (20-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Alexandre Pantoja | -253 | 68.32% | |
| Elo K170 | Alexandre Pantoja | 2123.73 | +359.15 | 88.77% |
| Elo Modified | Alexandre Pantoja | 2042.85 | +292.38 | 84.33% |
| Glicko-1 | Alexandre Pantoja | 2089.73 | +313.03 | 85.84% |
| WHR | Alexandre Pantoja | 2001.52 | +287.60 | 83.96% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexandre Pantoja 140, Steve Erceg 63
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.
Bantamweight (135)
[*] Jose Aldo (31-8-0, +109) vs. [#12] Jonathan Martinez (19-4-0, -134)
Jose Aldo is the All-Time #32 ranked Bantamweight and #3 ranked Absolute fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Jose Aldo (2-1-0)
2022-08-20: L vs. [#2BW/#9DD/#8P4P] Merab Dvalishvili (17-4-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-12-04: W vs. [#13BW] Rob Font (20-8-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)
2021-08-07: W vs. [#14BW] Pedro Munhoz (20-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Last 3 Fights: Jonathan Martinez (3-0-0)
2023-10-14: W vs. [#60BW] Adrian Yanez (16-5-0) via TKO (Leg Kick) in 2:26 of round 2
2023-03-11: W vs. [#21BW] Said Nurmagomedov (18-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-10-15: W vs. [#32FW] Cub Swanson (29-13-0) via TKO (Leg Kick) in 4:19 of round 2
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Jonathan Martinez | -134 | 54.47% | |
| Elo K170 | Jose Aldo | 2024.35 | +34.67 | 54.97% |
| Elo Modified | Jose Aldo | 2047.09 | +79.84 | 61.29% |
| Glicko-1 | Jose Aldo | 2078.63 | +54.67 | 57.80% |
| WHR | Jose Aldo | 1934.46 | +63.60 | 59.05% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jose Aldo 623, Jonathan Martinez 203
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.
Light Heavyweight (205)
[#17] Anthony Smith (37-19-0, +356) vs. [#28] Vitor Petrino (11-0-0, -491)
Anthony Smith is the All-Time #31 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Anthony Smith (1-2-0)
2023-12-09: L vs. [#10LHW] Khalil Rountree (13-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:56 of round 3
2023-08-26: W vs. [#25LHW] Ryan Spann (21-10-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-05-13: L vs. [#11LHW] Johnny Walker (21-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Vitor Petrino (3-0-0)
2024-03-02: W vs. [*] Tyson Pedro (10-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2023-11-04: W vs. [#56LHW] Modestas Bukauskas (15-6-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:03 of round 2
2023-07-08: W vs. [#43LHW] Marcin Prachnio (17-7-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 3:42 of round 3
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Vitor Petrino | -491 | 79.11% | |
| Elo K170 | Anthony Smith | 1792.60 | +12.33 | 51.77% |
| Elo Modified | Vitor Petrino | 1813.82 | +61.88 | 58.81% |
| Glicko-1 | Vitor Petrino | 1828.30 | +23.22 | 53.34% |
| WHR | Vitor Petrino | 1842.17 | +179.93 | 73.80% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Anthony Smith 147, Vitor Petrino 63
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Keep Reading
Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez (04-27-2024)
Flyweight (125)
[#11] Matheus Nicolau (19-3-1, -183) vs. [#60] Alex Perez (24-8-0, +152)
Matheus Nicolau is the All-Time #35 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Alex Perez is the All-Time #36 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Matheus Nicolau (2-1-0)
2023-04-15: L vs. [#2FLY/#6DD] Brandon Royval (16-7-0) via KO (Knee and Elbows) in 2:09 of round 1
2022-12-03: W vs. [#58FLY] Matt Schnell (16-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:44 of round 2
2022-03-26: W vs. [#53FLY] David Dvorak (20-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Alex Perez (0-3-0)
2024-03-02: L vs. [#8FLY] Muhammad Mokaev (12-0-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-07-30: L vs. [#1FLY/#3DD/#3P4P] Alexandre Pantoja (27-5-0) via Submission (Neck Crank) in 1:31 of round 1
2020-11-21: L vs. [#8BW/#10P4P] Deiveson Figueiredo (23-3-1) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:57 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Matheus Nicolau | -183 | 61.97% | |
| Elo K170 | Matheus Nicolau | 1799.85 | +98.94 | 63.87% |
| Elo Modified | Matheus Nicolau | 1753.52 | +57.73 | 58.23% |
| Glicko-1 | Matheus Nicolau | 1760.10 | +35.02 | 55.02% |
| WHR | Matheus Nicolau | 1695.15 | +57.28 | 58.17% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Matheus Nicolau 378, Alex Perez 56
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Light Heavyweight (205)
[#18] Ryan Spann (21-9-0, -193) vs. [#64] Bogdan Guskov (15-3-0, +158)
Last 3 Fights: Ryan Spann (1-2-0)
2023-08-26: L vs. [#17LHW] Anthony Smith (37-19-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-03-11: L vs. [#9LHW] Nikita Krylov (30-9-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 3:38 of round 1
2022-11-12: W vs. [*] Dominick Reyes (12-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:20 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Bogdan Guskov (2-1-0)
2024-02-10: W vs. [#120LHW] Zac Pauga (6-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:38 of round 1
2023-09-02: L vs. [#15LHW] Volkan Oezdemir (19-7-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:46 of round 1
2023-03-18: W vs. [#190HW+] Carlos Eduardo (20-11-0) via TKO in 0:25 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Ryan Spann | -193 | 62.95% | |
| Elo K170 | Ryan Spann | 1742.06 | +171.79 | 72.89% |
| Elo Modified | Ryan Spann | 1808.25 | +201.55 | 76.14% |
| Glicko-1 | Ryan Spann | 1884.59 | +226.05 | 78.60% |
| WHR | Ryan Spann | 1706.17 | +105.89 | 64.78% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ryan Spann 245, Bogdan Guskov 77
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Women Flyweight (125)
[#15] Karine Silva (17-4-0, -147) vs. [#17] Ariane Lipski (17-8-0, +121)
Last 3 Fights: Karine Silva (3-0-0)
2023-08-19: W vs. [#34FLY] Maryna Moroz (11-6-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:59 of round 1
2023-06-03: W vs. [#57FLY] Ketlen Souza (13-4-0) via Submission (Kneebar) in 1:45 of round 1
2022-06-04: W vs. [*] Poliana Botelho (9-5-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 4:55 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Ariane Lipski (3-0-0)
2023-12-16: W vs. [#28FLY] Casey ONeill (9-2-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 1:18 of round 2
2023-07-01: W vs. [#33FLY] Melissa Gatto (8-2-2) via SD (28-29, 30-27, 29-28)
2023-03-11: W vs. [#25FLY] J.J. Aldrich (13-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Karine Silva | -147 | 56.80% | |
| Elo K170 | Karine Silva | 1674.63 | +72.02 | 60.22% |
| Elo Modified | Karine Silva | 1689.78 | +110.32 | 65.36% |
| Glicko-1 | Karine Silva | 1765.73 | +200.47 | 76.02% |
| WHR | Karine Silva | 1682.86 | +191.75 | 75.10% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Karine Silva 252, Ariane Lipski 133
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
.
Keep Reading
This Week’s WHR Parlays
Good news — Another win for the “Safe” parlay last week! With regards to the “Underdog” parlay, I find myself constantly wanting to tweak the criteria as it has the potential to get ridiculous. It is meant to be a longshot option, but I prefer to stop short of insanely long odds. Then again, the goal with the parlays isn’t just to make money, but to also have a good hit rate when compared to the betting odds. Have any thoughts? Leave a comment!
Bouts considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
- Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
- Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
- Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Now for the parlays…
This Week’s WHR Parlays
Once again, we hit the safe parlay last week, but the others failed. The smart parlay isn’t feeling so smart so far, and I may tighten the belt more on the requirements for that one in the near future.
This week, there is only 1 qualifying fight for the underdog and smart options (Oliveira/Tsarukyan), so going to skip those.
Post #4 in the series.. Here we go…
Bouts considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
- Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
- Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
- Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Now for the parlays…
Fight Matrix Program – UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill (04-13-2024)
Light Heavyweight Championship (205)
[#1/#8P4P] Alex Pereira (9-2-0, -142) vs. [#4] Jamahal Hill (13-1-0, +116)
Alex Pereira is the All-Time #25 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.
Jamahal Hill is the All-Time #30 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Alex Pereira (2-1-0)
2023-11-11: W vs. [#5LHW] Jiri Prochazka (29-4-1) via TKO (Elbows) in 4:08 of round 2
2023-07-29: W vs. [#2LHW] Jan Blachowicz (29-10-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-04-08: L vs. [#1MW] Israel Adesanya (24-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:21 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Jamahal Hill (3-0-0)
2023-01-21: W vs. [*] Glover Teixeira (33-9-0) via UD (50-44, 50-44, 50-44)
2022-08-06: W vs. [#13LHW] Thiago Santos (22-12-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 2:31 of round 4
2022-02-19: W vs. [#11LHW] Johnny Walker (21-8-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:55 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Alex Pereira | -142 | 55.89% | |
| Elo K170 | Alex Pereira | 2163.84 | +110.79 | 65.42% |
| Elo Modified | Alex Pereira | 2125.15 | +69.63 | 59.89% |
| Glicko-1 | Alex Pereira | 2220.93 | +73.88 | 60.47% |
| WHR | Alex Pereira | 2067.96 | +112.30 | 65.62% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alex Pereira 154, Jamahal Hill 448
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Women Strawweight Championship (115)
[#1/#1DD/#1P4P] Weili Zhang (24-3-0, -413) vs. [#2/#7DD/#9P4P] Xiaonan Yan (18-3-0, +307)
Weili Zhang is the All-Time #5 ranked Women’s fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Weili Zhang (3-0-0)
2023-08-19: W vs. [#4SW/#10DD] Amanda Lemos (14-3-1) via UD (50-43, 50-44, 49-45)
2022-11-12: W vs. [*] Carla Esparza (19-7-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:05 of round 2
2022-06-11: W vs. [*] Joanna Jedrzejczyk (16-5-0) via KO (Spinning Backfist) in 2:28 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Xiaonan Yan (2-1-0)
2023-05-06: W vs. [#5SW] Jessica Andrade (25-12-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:20 of round 1
2022-10-01: W vs. [#8SW] Mackenzie Dern (13-5-0) via MD (48-47, 48-47, 47-47)
2022-03-05: L vs. [#7SW] Marina Rodriguez (17-3-2) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Weili Zhang | -413 | 76.61% | |
| Elo K170 | Weili Zhang | 2002.50 | +192.93 | 75.22% |
| Elo Modified | Weili Zhang | 1956.56 | +170.64 | 72.75% |
| Glicko-1 | Weili Zhang | 1986.84 | +233.28 | 79.30% |
| WHR | Weili Zhang | 1881.92 | +193.01 | 75.23% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Weili Zhang 238, Xiaonan Yan 343
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Weili Zhang leads 2-1
.
Lightweight (155)
[#3/#10P4P] Justin Gaethje (25-4-0, -190) vs. [#3FW] Max Holloway (25-7-0, +155)
Justin Gaethje is the All-Time #12 ranked Lightweight fighter.
Max Holloway is the All-Time #8 ranked Absolute fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Justin Gaethje (2-1-0)
2023-07-29: W vs. [#4LW] Dustin Poirier (30-8-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 1:00 of round 2
2023-03-18: W vs. [#9LW] Rafael Fiziev (12-3-0) via MD (29-28, 28-28, 29-28)
2022-05-07: L vs. [#2LW/#6DD/#9P4P] Charles Oliveira (34-9-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:22 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Max Holloway (2-1-0)
2023-08-26: W vs. [*] Chan Sung Jung (17-8-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:23 of round 3
2023-04-15: W vs. [#8FW] Arnold Allen (19-3-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
2022-07-02: L vs. [#2FW/#8DD] Alexander Volkanovski (26-4-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Justin Gaethje | -190 | 62.55% | |
| Elo K170 | Justin Gaethje | 2373.34 | +90.39 | 62.72% |
| Elo Modified | Justin Gaethje | 2281.41 | +31.72 | 54.55% |
| Glicko-1 | Justin Gaethje | 2361.62 | +18.82 | 52.71% |
| WHR | Max Holloway | 2104.89 | +21.13 | 53.04% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Justin Gaethje 259, Max Holloway 231
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.
Keep Reading