This Week’s WHR Parlays… (Updated)

Last week was a good week.  Technically, two out of three parlays hit — the “underdog” and the “safe” options.  Jason Butcher, who was featured in the “underdog” parlay, withdrew from his fight. This reduced the underdog option to one fight, but it still would’ve cashed at a lesser payout.

I’m going to start tracking progress back to the start of the weekly 3-parlay posts and include that ongoing.  This is post #3.

Here we go…

Bouts considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

• Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event).  Reduces uncertainty.
• Both fighters must have at least 5 fights with at least 1 draw or 1 loss.  More data makes WHR happy.
• Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight.  Further reduces uncertainty.
• Major organizations only.  If it is a dead week, I’ll bend.  Other interesting bets may be posted in comments.

Now for the parlays…

“The Underdog” parlay

• Fighters listed are betting underdogs, but WHR favorites.
• Fighters with “negative” odds are not listed.  This can sometimes happen in pick’em fights.
• No maximum fighter amount.
• At 4 fighters, I will only add more if there is reasonable value (WHR% – Odds%) >15%?

Historical Hit Rate: 1 of 2 (50%) – Expected Rate by Odds: 22.9% (+338), WHR: 47.7% – Bankroll: $65.00

“The Safe” parlay

• Fighters listed have a higher chance to win per WHR than implied probability (odds).
• Fighters listed have at least a 75% chance of winning per WHR.
  • If I can’t get at least two fighters, I’ll bend a little on this percentage.
• Goal is to have a total parlay WHR win percentage of 50% or higher.

Historical Hit Rate: 1 of 2 (50%) – Expected Rate by Odds: 36.9% (+171), WHR: 62.6% – Bankroll: $61.19

“The Smart” parlay

• Fighters listed have the highest difference between WHR win probability and implied probability (odds).
• I’ll sort all qualifying fighters by that difference and cut the parlay off where it drops off significantly.
  • I’m going to aim for WHR favorites with >20% win difference and 2-4 total fighters.

Historical Hit Rate: 0 of 2 (0%) – Expected Rate by Odds: 14.4% (+594), WHR: 43.4% – Bankroll: -$200.00

Other things to consider….

• Our odds are “composite” odds — an average of many major sportsbooks.
• This is not “vanilla” WHR (although it is very advanced by default).  Read the FAQ for more info.
• As WHR is an Elo-variant, I’m using the same win probability formula as is the standard in Elo.  If one of you math nerds has a better approach, please let me know.
• “Odds Win %” does not factor in the juice.
• If the “FM Agree” column is “YES”, the standard ratings agree with WHR that the underdog is indeed the underdog and vice-versa.
• Don’t blame us if you lose money.  Gamble at your own risk.
• Bankrolls are based on $100 bets.