Bang for Your Buck: UFC Fight Night 77

After the previous UFC Fight Night card fell short of expectations when two of the main fights were cancelled due to injuries, the UFC soldiers on to the next Fight Night.  This one will take place in Sao Paulo, Brazil, and will be broadcast on Fox Sports 1 and UFC Fight Pass.  This is kind of an odd card as there are no huge fights here, no top contenders or over-hyped prospects, yet almost every fight on the line-up interests me in some way.  So even though I didn’t valuate any single fight higher than $7.50, overall they all added up to a seemingly worthwhile event.

Main Card (Fox Sports 1)

Main Event:  [#5 MW] Vitor Belfort vs [#10 MW] Dan Henderson

Worth: $7.50

Why: The main event is a battle of two old lions who are no strangers to each other in the ring or the cage.  The longevity of these fighters careers is remarkable, and so it’s no wonder that they are meeting for the third time. Their first two fights could not have been any more different from each other. Back in 2006, Henderson defeated Belfort via a wrestling-heavy decision, a boring fight that was for some reason aired twice during the Pride 32 broadcast. Belfort took revenge seven years later, knocking out Henderson with a head kick, a little over a minute into the first round at UFC Fight Night 32. Now they meet again – this time as middleweights, and without Testosterone Replacement Therapy or Performance Enhancing Drugs being used by either fighter, allegedly.

There isn’t much on the line here, with Henderson 1-1 in his most recent run at middleweight and Belfort coming off a quick loss to the champ; however the winning fighter will remain in the top 10 and could be not that far from a title shot, especially if an unexpected injury comes up and calls for a short notice replacement.  I just hope that this goes more like their second fight than their first – in terms of entertainment value, not the outcome.  Though I suspect that the outcome will also be similar to their second fight.

Fight:  [#7 LHW] Glover Teixeira vs [#33 LHW] Patrick Cummins

Worth: $7.50

Why: Jon ‘Bones’ Jones can’t make his return to the Octagon soon enough in a division with a paper champion and a very shallow pool of available contenders. While we are waiting for him to reclaim from Daniel Cormier the title that he never lost, we get match-ups like this one.  Both Teixeira and Cumming rebounded strong from losses in their most recent fights, Cummins with a TKO of Rafael Calvancante, and Teixeira with a submission win over Ovince St. Preux.  Both will look to get a win streak going, the question is whether Patrick’s wrestling will be enough to propel him into the Top 10, or if Teixera’s mix of boxing and grappling can stave off Cummins and keep his name somewhere in the remote vicinity of the title picture.

Fight:  [#19 BW] Thomas Almeida vs [#48 BW] Anthony Birchak

Worth: $5

Why: Frankly I am a bit disappointed with this matchup. The undefeated 24-year-old Almeida is 19-0 with only one fight going the distance and very few making it past Round 1.  He is now 3-0 in UFC, with back-to-back stoppages of Yves Jabouin and Brad Pickett.  I feel like he is ready for a step up to a Top 10-15 level fighter. Don’t get me wrong, Birchak is not a bad fighter and a fair prospect as well, and is hot coming off a first-round KO of Joe Soto – something that took the bantamweight champion TJ Dillashaw over 20 minutes to accomplish – but still it seems like a step down, or at least sideways, for Almeida.  I guess getting built up slowly can help a young fighter and add to his win streak and highlight reel.  Still,  it feels like a mismatch and I would have far preffered to see Almeida take on someone a bit higher up the ladder than Birchak.

Fight:  [#72 LW] Piotr Hallmann vs [#94 WW] Alex Oliveira

Worth: $1

Why: I was once high on Alex ‘Cowboy’ Oliveira after an exciting performance in his UFC debut, followed up by stopping KJ Noons on short notice.  My enthusiasm has been dampened somewhat after his last fight, where he struggled quite a bit though did enough to earn a decision over Joe Merritt.  His opponent Piotr Hallmann is 2-3 in UFC and doesn’t seem like a guy who will ever make it to the contender level in a division as tough as the lightweight.  Here’s a buck for Oliveira’s chance to show that he doesn’t belong in the same category as Hallmann.

Fight:  [#18 LW] Rashid Magomedov vs [#45 LW] Gilbert Burns

Worth: $2.50

Why: Another lightweight bout and this one has ‘prospect watch’ written all over it.  Both guys sport impressive records, both are 3-0 in UFC, everything else is virtually identical – let’s get it on!

Fight:  [#24 LHW] Corey Anderson vs [#32 LHW] Fabio Maldonado

Worth: $2.50

Why: I never though that Corey Anderson would amount to much in the UFC, but I may have written him off too soon as he delivered an impressive, if not the most exciting, performance against Jan Blachowitz.  He’s now up against the chief UFC light heavyweight gatekeeper of the past five years in Fabio Maldonado.  A much tougher fight than Blachowitz, but a winnable one for Anderson.  This could turn out to be sort of fun, or really boring.  I like the unpredictability.

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Fight:  [#28 LW] Gleison Tibau vs [#70 LW] Abel Trujillo

Worth: $5.00

Why: Gleison Tibau is the venerable veteran of the lightweight division, and is continuing to slowly scrape his way up in the record books: the Brazilian is about to be tied with Frank Mir for second most UFC bouts (unless he gets injured after the time of this article’s publication, which is always a possibility the way things have been going), is currently tied for fourth most wins in the UFC, and is 3 minutes and 31 seconds away from being in the Top 5 for most Octagon time.  His opponent Abel Trujillo is one of the hardest punchers in the division, but tends to run out of energy by the end of the second round, so if Tibau can survive the initial onslaught he might even get a rare stoppage late in the fight.  Trujillo also holds the dubious record of having the most takedowns scored against him in a UFC fight against Khabib Nurmagomedov.  Tibau is a good takedown artist in his own right, so I see Trujillo going for a ride or a few of them in this fight.

Fight:  [#10 FW] Clay Guida vs [#29 FW] Thiago Tavares

Worth: $5.00

Why: Somehow Clay Guida manages to hold on to the fringe of the featherweight Top 10, despite alternating wins and losses in his five fights in the division. Perhaps his wins against the current lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos, the former champion Anthony Pettis, and the legendary former Pride champion Takanori Gomi gave him enough of a rating point reserve when he dropped down to 145.  Anyhow, Guida has fought almost every big name in the sport at 145 and 155 alike, and currently is holding the position of a gatekeeper to the featherweight elite.   It’s a gate that I don’t expect Thiago Tavares to pass through.  Like Guida, Tavares has had an extensive career at lightweight, and only recently dropped down to 145 lbs.  Tavares is coming off a loss, which defies the usual rules of UFC matchmaking.  This should be a fun fight though, as Thiago is a fast-paced grappler who will force Guida to engage even if it costs him the victory.

Fight:  [#24 FW] Chas Skelly vs [#31 FW] Edimilson Souza

Worth: $2.50

Why: This is a solid matchup of two featherweight prospects, both 3-0 in the Octagon.  I don’t really know much about either guy, but both are coming off big TKO wins – let’s find out who is the real deal.

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Fight:  [#18 BW] Jimmie Rivera vs [#28 BW] Pedro Munhoz

Worth: $2.50

Why: A rare Fight Pass prelim that’s worth a couple of bucks, this fight features Jimmie Rivera – who made his UFC debut with an impressive first round knockout of Marcus Brimage and sent Brimage packing from the UFC roster – taking on Pedro Munhoz, who would have been 2-1 in the Octagon if the victory in his last fight was not overturned to a ‘No Contest’ due to a failed drug test.  Munhoz has served his 12-months suspension and will look to get his career back on track against a dangerous opponent.

—

Fox Sports 1 Event Worth: $37.50
Fox Sports 1 Event Valuation: $5 (see how I came up with this valuation)
Net Value: $33.50

—

Fight Pass Event Worth: $2.50
Fight Pass Year-to-Date Cost: $109.89
Fight Pass Year-to-Date Value: $-18.89

—

Cable (FS1/FS2/FX) YTD Worth: $575.50
Cable (FS1/FS2/FX) YTD Valuation: $102
Cable (FS1/FS2/FX) YTD Net Value: $473.50