Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai (2020-09-05)

31 Aug , 2020,
Jason

Heavyweight (265)
[#6] Alistair Overeem (46-18-0, -183) vs. [#13] Augusto Sakai (15-1-1, +153)
Alistair Overeem is the All-Time #15 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Alistair Overeem (2-1-0)
2020-05-16: W vs. [#19HW+] Walt Harris (13-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:00 of round 2
2019-12-07: L vs. [#5HW+] Jairzinho Rozenstruik (11-1-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:56 of round 5
2019-04-20: W vs. [#11HW+] Alexey Oleynik (59-14-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:45 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Augusto Sakai (3-0-0)
2020-05-30: W vs. [#15HW+] Blagoy Ivanov (18-4-0) via SD (27-30, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-09-14: W vs. [#18HW+] Marcin Tybura (19-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:59 of round 1
2019-04-27: W vs. [#27HW+] Andrei Arlovski (29-19-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Alistair Overeem -183 62.05%
Elo K170 Alistair Overeem 1893.73 +26.53 53.03%
Elo Modified Alistair Overeem 1925.00 +106.79 61.48%
Glicko-1 Alistair Overeem 1993.81 +140.46 69.18%
WHR Alistair Overeem 1870.88 +88.45 59.97%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alistair Overeem 112, Augusto Sakai 98
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#26] Ovince St. Preux (24-14-0, +101) vs. [#57] Alonzo Menifield (9-1-0, -125)
Ovince St. Preux is the All-Time #45 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Ovince St. Preux (1-2-0)
2020-05-13: L vs. [#25HW+] Ben Rothwell (38-12-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2019-09-28: W vs. [#49LHW] Michal Oleksiejczuk (16-4-0) via Submission (Shoulder Choke) in 2:14 of round 2
2019-04-13: L vs. [#15LHW] Nikita Krylov (26-7-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:30 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Alonzo Menifield (2-1-0)
2020-06-06: L vs. [#41LHW] Devin Clark (12-4-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2019-06-29: W vs. [#42LHW] Paul Craig (13-4-1) via KO (Punches) in 3:19 of round 1
2019-01-19: W vs. [#143LHW] Vinicius Moreira Castro (9-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:56 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Alonzo Menifield -125 52.75%
Elo K170 Ovince St. Preux 1640.47 +90.81 60.23%
Elo Modified Ovince St. Preux 1727.34 +127.90 63.64%
Glicko-1 Ovince St. Preux 1813.17 +194.55 75.40%
WHR Ovince St. Preux 1720.16 +165.30 68.03%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ovince St. Preux 115, Alonzo Menifield 91
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#137] Michel Pereira (24-11-0, -117) vs. [#345] Zelim Imadaev (8-2-0, -106)

Last 3 Fights: Michel Pereira (1-2-0)
2020-02-15: L vs. [#65WW] Diego Sanchez (30-12-0) via Disqualification (Illegal Knee) in 3:09 of round 3
2019-09-14: L vs. [#91WW] Tristan Connelly (14-6-0) via UD (29-27, 29-27, 29-28)
2019-05-18: W vs. [#113WW] Danny Roberts (17-5-0) via KO (Flying Knee and Punch) in 1:47 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Zelim Imadaev (1-2-0)
2019-11-09: L vs. [#113WW] Danny Roberts (17-5-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:54 of round 2
2019-04-13: L vs. [#70WW] Max Griffin (15-8-0) via MD (28-28, 29-27, 29-27)
2018-03-30: W vs. [#916WW] Ivan Gluhak (18-9-1) via KO (Punch) in 0:13 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Michel Pereira -117 51.16%
Elo K170 Michel Pereira 1481.00 +162.22 67.72%
Elo Modified Michel Pereira 1549.03 +166.25 67.43%
Glicko-1 Michel Pereira 1584.28 +158.65 71.37%
WHR Michel Pereira 1492.57 +128.33 64.25%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Michel Pereira 203, Zelim Imadaev 301
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Michel Pereira leads 1-0
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Middleweight (185)
[#31] Bartosz Fabinski (15-3-0, -151) vs. [#71] Andre Muniz (19-4-0, +125)

Last 3 Fights: Bartosz Fabinski (2-1-0)
2020-03-20: W vs. [#49MW] Darren Stewart (12-5-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-26)
2018-11-17: L vs. [*] Michel Prazeres (26-3-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:02 of round 1
2018-07-22: W vs. [#107WW] Emil Meek (9-5-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Andre Muniz (3-0-0)
2019-11-16: W vs. [#152MW] Antonio Arroyo (9-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-08-06: W vs. [#343MW] Taylor Johnson (5-1-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:46 of round 1
2018-08-11: W vs. [#379MW] Bruno Assis (9-5-0) via UD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Bartosz Fabinski -151 57.51%
Elo K170 Bartosz Fabinski 1786.73 +103.22 61.58%
Elo Modified Bartosz Fabinski 1758.63 +48.74 55.32%
Glicko-1 Bartosz Fabinski 1757.73 +19.90 52.86%
WHR Andre Muniz 1707.12 +43.91 55.00%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Bartosz Fabinski 169, Andre Muniz 294
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#48] Thiago Moises (13-4-0, -200) vs. [#171] Jalin Turner (9-5-0, +165)

Last 3 Fights: Thiago Moises (2-1-0)
2020-05-13: W vs. [#79LW] Michael Johnson (19-16-0) via Submission (Achilles Lock) in 0:25 of round 2
2019-08-31: L vs. [#43LW] Damir Ismagulov (19-1-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-05-11: W vs. [*] Kurt Holobaugh (17-7-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-26)

Last 3 Fights: Jalin Turner (2-1-0)
2020-02-22: W vs. [#420LW] Joshua Culibao (9-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:01 of round 2
2019-04-13: L vs. [#116LW] Matt Frevola (8-1-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-02-09: W vs. [#195WW] Callan Potter (18-9-0) via TKO (Kick to the Body and Punches) in 0:53 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Thiago Moises -200 63.85%
Elo K170 Thiago Moises 1701.69 +221.13 73.31%
Elo Modified Thiago Moises 1705.27 +212.80 71.74%
Glicko-1 Thiago Moises 1746.84 +235.80 79.54%
WHR Thiago Moises 1660.29 +245.76 75.45%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Thiago Moises 115, Jalin Turner 196
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Bantamweight (135)
[#75] Hunter Azure (8-1-0, -199) vs. [#167] Cole Smith (7-1-0, +165)

Last 3 Fights: Hunter Azure (2-1-0)
2020-05-13: L vs. [#52FW] Brian Kelleher (21-11-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:40 of round 2
2019-09-14: W vs. [#88BW] Brad Katona (8-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-07-09: W vs. [#252FLY] Chris Ocon (4-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)

Last 3 Fights: Cole Smith (2-1-0)
2019-09-14: L vs. [#160BW] Miles Johns (10-1-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2019-05-04: W vs. [*] Mitch Gagnon (12-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-01-12: W vs. [#959FW] Tyler Wilson (6-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:26 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Hunter Azure -199 63.81%
Elo K170 Hunter Azure 1487.93 +35.08 54.00%
Elo Modified Cole Smith 1539.84 +16.23 51.78%
Glicko-1 Cole Smith 1543.08 +52.29 57.47%
WHR Cole Smith 1465.16 +44.23 55.04%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Hunter Azure 115, Cole Smith 357
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Flyweight (125)
[#10] Viviane Araujo (8-2-0, -201) vs. [#27] Montana De La Rosa (10-5-0, +166)

Last 3 Fights: Viviane Araujo (2-1-0)
2019-12-14: L vs. [#8FLY] Jessica Eye (15-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-07-27: W vs. [#23FLY] Alexis Davis (19-10-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-05-11: W vs. [*] Talita Bernardo (6-4-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:48 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Montana De La Rosa (2-1-0)
2020-02-15: W vs. [#61FLY] Mara Romero Borella (12-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-06-22: L vs. [#22FLY] Andrea Lee (11-4-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-02-09: W vs. [#143FLY] Nadia Kassem (5-2-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:37 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Viviane Araujo -201 63.98%
Elo K170 Viviane Araujo 1490.05 +100.03 61.23%
Elo Modified Viviane Araujo 1508.35 +106.10 61.41%
Glicko-1 Viviane Araujo 1481.78 +89.26 62.57%
WHR Viviane Araujo 1448.47 +132.12 64.65%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Viviane Araujo 266, Montana De La Rosa 203
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[#56] Marcos Rogerio de Lima (17-6-1, -108) vs. [*] Alexander Romanov (11-1-0, -115)

Last 3 Fights: Marcos Rogerio de Lima (2-1-0)
2020-02-22: W vs. [#158HW+] Ben Sosoli (7-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:28 of round 1
2019-02-23: L vs. [#35HW+] Stefan Struve (29-12-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 2:21 of round 2
2018-11-03: W vs. [*] Adam Wieczorek (10-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Alexander Romanov (3-0-0)
2019-02-16: W vs. [*] Sergio Freitas (6-1-0) via TKO (Submission to Injury) in 2:28 of round 1
2018-11-03: W vs. [#116HW+] Sultan Murtazaliev (8-4-1) via TKO (Punches) in 2:17 of round 3
2018-08-22: W vs. [#69LHW] Virgil Zwicker (17-9-1) via Submission (Neck Crank) in 1:16 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Alexander Romanov -115 50.74%
Elo K170 Marcos Rogerio de Lima 1574.27 +0.99 50.11%
Elo Modified Marcos Rogerio de Lima 1610.03 +14.22 51.55%
Glicko-1 Alexander Romanov 1658.59 +19.51 52.80%
WHR Alexander Romanov 1675.21 +106.68 61.95%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Marcos Rogerio de Lima 196, Alexander Romanov 567
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Bantamweight (135)
[#10] Sijara Eubanks (5-4-0) vs. [#14] Karol Rosa (13-3-0)

Last 3 Fights: Sijara Eubanks (1-2-0)
2020-05-13: W vs. [#29BW] Sarah Moras (6-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-27)
2019-09-21: L vs. [#17BW] Bethe Correia (11-5-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-05-18: L vs. [#3BW] Aspen Ladd (9-1-0) via UD (29-27, 30-26, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Karol Rosa (3-0-0)
2020-07-11: W vs. [#27FW] Vanessa Melo (10-8-0) via UD (30-26, 29-27, 30-26)
2019-08-31: W vs. [#33BW] Lara Fritzen Procopio (6-1-0) via SD (29-28, 30-27, 28-29)
2019-04-19: W vs. [#32BW] Gisele Moreira (9-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:21 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Elo K170 Karol Rosa 1499.34 +90.52 60.19%
Elo Modified Karol Rosa 1469.41 +9.12 51.00%
Glicko-1 Karol Rosa 1464.63 +16.03 52.30%
WHR Sijara Eubanks 1465.57 +11.47 51.31%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sijara Eubanks 115, Karol Rosa 56
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.

Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Alistair Overeem
Highest Stored DD Rating: Alistair Overeem
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Alistair Overeem vs. Augusto Sakai
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Alistair Overeem vs. Augusto Sakai
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Good [***]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Very Low [*½]
Run Date: 2020-8-30