Fight Matrix Program – UFC 229: Nurmagomedov vs. McGregor (10-06-2018)

1 Oct , 2018,
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Lightweight Championship (155)
[#3] Khabib Nurmagomedov (26-0-0, -163) vs. [*] Conor McGregor (21-3-0, +139)
Khabib Nurmagomedov is the All-Time #14 ranked Lightweight fighter.
Conor McGregor is the All-Time #18 ranked Lightweight and #37 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Khabib Nurmagomedov (3-0-0)
2018-04-07: W vs. [#13LW] Al Iaquinta (14-4-1) via UD (50-44, 50-43, 50-43)
2017-12-30: W vs. [#9LW] Edson Barboza (19-6-0) via UD (30-25, 30-25, 30-24)
2016-11-12: W vs. [#18FW] Michael Johnson (18-13-0) via Submission (Kimura) in 2:31 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Conor McGregor (2-1-0)
2016-11-12: W vs. [#4LW] Eddie Alvarez (29-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:04 of round 2
2016-08-20: W vs. [*] Nate Diaz (19-11-0) via MD (47-47, 48-47, 48-47)
2016-03-05: L vs. [*] Nate Diaz (19-11-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:12 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Khabib Nurmagomedov – Win%: 59.69
Elo Favorite (Standard): Conor McGregor (2259.81) [+6.11] – Win%: 50.70
Elo Favorite (Modified): Khabib Nurmagomedov (2215.15) [+32.92] – Win%: 53.60
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Khabib Nurmagomedov 182, Conor McGregor 693
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#2/#8DD] Tony Ferguson (23-3-0, -345) vs. [#6] Anthony Pettis (21-7-0, +270)
Tony Ferguson is the All-Time #13 ranked Lightweight fighter.
Anthony Pettis is the All-Time #6 ranked Lightweight and #39 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Tony Ferguson (3-0-0)
2017-10-07: W vs. [#5LW] Kevin Lee (17-3-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 4:02 of round 3
2016-11-05: W vs. [#3WW] Rafael dos Anjos (28-10-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)
2016-07-13: W vs. [#111LW] Lando Vannata (9-3-1) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 2:22 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Anthony Pettis (2-1-0)
2018-07-07: W vs. [#29LW] Michael Chiesa (14-4-0) via Submission (Triangle Armbar) in 0:52 of round 2
2017-11-11: L vs. [#1LW/#7DD/#10P4P] Dustin Poirier (24-5-0) via Submission (Body Triangle) in 2:08 of round 3
2017-07-08: W vs. [#36LW] Jim Miller (29-12-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Tony Ferguson – Win%: 74.14
Elo Favorite (Standard): Tony Ferguson (2255.64) [+281.97] – Win%: 78.38
Elo Favorite (Modified): Tony Ferguson (2193.63) [+251.88] – Win%: 75.08
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Tony Ferguson 364, Anthony Pettis 91
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Tony Ferguson leads 3-1
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#13] Ovince St. Preux (23-11-0, +175) vs. [#30] Dominick Reyes (9-0-0, -217)
Ovince St. Preux is the All-Time #39 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Ovince St. Preux (2-1-0)
2018-06-23: W vs. [#37LHW] Tyson Pedro (7-2-0) via Submission (Straight Armbar) in 2:54 of round 1
2018-02-24: L vs. [#8LHW] Ilir Latifi (14-5-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:48 of round 1
2017-11-04: W vs. [#4LHW] Corey Anderson (11-4-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 1:25 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Dominick Reyes (3-0-0)
2018-05-19: W vs. [#67LHW] Jared Cannonier (10-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:55 of round 1
2017-12-02: W vs. [#91LHW] Jeremy Kimball (15-8-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:39 of round 1
2017-06-25: W vs. [#100LHW] Joachim Christensen (14-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:29 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Dominick Reyes – Win%: 65.30
Elo Favorite (Standard): Ovince St. Preux (1802.50) [+118.94] – Win%: 63.26
Elo Favorite (Modified): Ovince St. Preux (1833.60) [+132.02] – Win%: 64.06
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ovince St. Preux 105, Dominick Reyes 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[#4] Alexander Volkov (30-6-0, -173) vs. [#5] Derrick Lewis (20-5-0, +144)
Alexander Volkov is the All-Time #42 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Derrick Lewis is the All-Time #49 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Alexander Volkov (3-0-0)
2018-03-17: W vs. [#8HW+] Fabricio Werdum (23-8-1) via KO (Punches) in 1:38 of round 4
2017-09-02: W vs. [#26HW+] Stefan Struve (28-11-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:30 of round 3
2017-04-15: W vs. [#20HW+] Roy Nelson (23-15-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Derrick Lewis (2-1-0)
2018-07-07: W vs. [#7HW+] Francis Ngannou (11-3-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2018-02-18: W vs. [#14HW+] Marcin Tybura (17-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:48 of round 3
2017-06-10: L vs. [#12HW+] Mark Hunt (13-13-1) via TKO (Punches) in 3:51 of round 4

Odds Favorite (Implied): Alexander Volkov – Win%: 60.72
Elo Favorite (Standard): Alexander Volkov (2057.64) [+82.52] – Win%: 59.32
Elo Favorite (Modified): Alexander Volkov (2065.77) [+94.44] – Win%: 60.19
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexander Volkov 203, Derrick Lewis 91
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Women Strawweight (115)
[#12] Felice Herrig (14-7-0, -131) vs. [#20] Michelle Waterson (15-6-0, +107)
Michelle Waterson is the All-Time #37 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Felice Herrig (2-1-0)
2018-04-07: L vs. [#8SW] Karolina Kowalkiewicz (12-3-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2017-12-02: W vs. [#13SW] Cortney Casey-Sanchez (8-6-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2017-06-25: W vs. [#52FLY] Justine Kish (6-2-0) via UD (29-27, 30-26, 30-26)

Last 3 Fights: Michelle Waterson (1-2-0)
2018-04-14: W vs. [#13SW] Cortney Casey-Sanchez (8-6-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2017-12-02: L vs. [#10SW] Tecia Torres (10-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2017-04-15: L vs. [#1SW/#3DD/#2P4P] Rose Namajunas (8-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:47 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Felice Herrig – Win%: 53.99
Elo Favorite (Standard): Felice Herrig (1510.01) [+53.87] – Win%: 56.12
Elo Favorite (Modified): Felice Herrig (1531.83) [+110.01] – Win%: 61.81
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Felice Herrig 182, Michelle Waterson 175
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Michelle Waterson leads 3-2
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Bantamweight (135)
[#36] Sean OMalley (10-0-0, -312) vs. [#38] Jose Alberto Quinonez (7-2-0, +246)

Last 3 Fights: Sean OMalley (3-0-0)
2018-03-03: W vs. [#63BW] Andre Soukhamthath (12-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-27, 29-27)
2017-12-01: W vs. [#140BW] Terrion Ware (17-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2017-07-18: W vs. [#447BW] Alfred Khashakyan (8-4-0) via TKO in 4:14 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Jose Alberto Quinonez (3-0-0)
2018-02-10: W vs. [#180BW] Teruto Ishihara (10-6-2) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2017-08-05: W vs. [#330BW] Diego Rivas (7-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2016-09-17: W vs. [*] Joey Gomez (6-2-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Sean OMalley – Win%: 72.37
Elo Favorite (Standard): Sean OMalley (1618.30) [+24.88] – Win%: 52.84
Elo Favorite (Modified): Sean OMalley (1661.85) [+35.34] – Win%: 53.86
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sean OMalley 217, Jose Alberto Quinonez 238
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Flyweight (125)
[#3] Jussier da Silva (21-5-0, +142) vs. [#4] Sergio Pettis (17-3-0, -171)
Jussier da Silva is the All-Time #5 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Sergio Pettis is the All-Time #14 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jussier da Silva (2-1-0)
2018-02-10: W vs. [#12FLY] Ben Nguyen (16-7-0) via Technical Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:43 of round 3
2017-09-22: W vs. [#20FLY] Yuta Sasaki (21-5-2) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:30 of round 1
2017-03-11: L vs. [#8FLY] Ray Borg (11-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Sergio Pettis (2-1-0)
2018-06-09: W vs. [#5FLY] Joseph Benavidez (25-5-0) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 29-28)
2017-12-02: L vs. [#1FLY/#4DD/#6P4P] Henry Cejudo (13-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2017-08-05: W vs. [#16FLY] Brandon Moreno (14-5-0) via UD (49-46, 48-46, 48-46)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Sergio Pettis – Win%: 60.42
Elo Favorite (Standard): Sergio Pettis (1851.09) [+53.06] – Win%: 56.03
Elo Favorite (Modified): Jussier da Silva (1823.49) [+44.17] – Win%: 54.82
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jussier da Silva 238, Sergio Pettis 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Sergio Pettis leads 2-1
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Welterweight (170)
[#30] Vicente Luque (13-6-1, -771) vs. [#375LW] Jalin Turner (7-3-0, +522)

Last 3 Fights: Vicente Luque (2-1-0)
2018-05-19: W vs. [#110WW] Chad Laprise (13-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:16 of round 1
2017-10-28: W vs. [#77WW] Niko Price (12-2-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 4:08 of round 2
2017-03-18: L vs. [#14WW] Leon Edwards (16-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Jalin Turner (3-0-0)
2018-07-10: W vs. [#680LW] Max Mustaki (6-3-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 1
2018-01-20: W vs. [NA] Noah Tillis (4-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in ? of round 1
2017-09-02: W vs. [#1723WW] Vytautas Sadauskas (3-11-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 3:39 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Vicente Luque – Win%: 84.62
Elo Favorite (Standard): Vicente Luque (1784.78) [+462.84] – Win%: 89.23
Elo Favorite (Modified): Vicente Luque (1799.94) [+449.13] – Win%: 87.72
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Vicente Luque 140, Jalin Turner 88
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Bantamweight (135)
[#7] Tonya Evinger (19-6-0, +139) vs. [#11] Aspen Ladd (6-0-0, -166)
Tonya Evinger is the All-Time #46 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Tonya Evinger (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2017-07-29: L vs. [#1FW/#2DD/#3P4P] Cristiane Justino (20-1-0) via TKO in 1:56 of round 3
2017-03-25: W vs. [#14BW] Yana Kunitskaya (10-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:32 of round 2
2016-11-18: NC vs. [#14BW] Yana Kunitskaya (10-4-0)

Last 3 Fights: Aspen Ladd (3-0-0)
2017-10-21: W vs. [#15BW] Lina Lansberg (8-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:33 of round 2
2017-01-14: W vs. [#7FLY] Sijara Eubanks (3-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2016-07-29: W vs. [*] Jessica Hoy (1-1-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 3:14 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Aspen Ladd – Win%: 59.86
Elo Favorite (Standard): Tonya Evinger (1633.75) [+188.07] – Win%: 70.25
Elo Favorite (Modified): Tonya Evinger (1627.33) [+103.29] – Win%: 61.11
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Tonya Evinger 434, Aspen Ladd 350
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Bantamweight (135)
[#14] Yana Kunitskaya (10-4-0, -187) vs. [#15] Lina Lansberg (8-3-0, +155)

Last 3 Fights: Yana Kunitskaya (1-2-0)
2018-03-03: L vs. [#1FW/#2DD/#3P4P] Cristiane Justino (20-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:25 of round 1
2017-08-31: W vs. [#37BW] Raquel Paaluhi (6-6-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2017-03-25: L vs. [#7BW] Tonya Evinger (19-6-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:32 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Lina Lansberg (2-1-0)
2018-05-27: W vs. [#51BW] Gina Mazany (5-2-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2017-10-21: L vs. [#11BW] Aspen Ladd (6-0-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:33 of round 2
2017-03-18: W vs. [#12BW] Lucie Pudilova (8-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Yana Kunitskaya – Win%: 62.42
Elo Favorite (Standard): Lina Lansberg (1405.82) [+28.80] – Win%: 53.29
Elo Favorite (Modified): Lina Lansberg (1430.24) [+44.13] – Win%: 54.82
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Yana Kunitskaya 217, Lina Lansberg 132
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Lina Lansberg leads 1-0
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Lightweight (155)
[#31] Alan Patrick Silva Alves (15-1-0, -253) vs. [#87] Scott Holtzman (11-2-0, +202)

Last 3 Fights: Alan Patrick Silva Alves (3-0-0)
2018-02-03: W vs. [#55LW] Damir Hadzovic (12-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2016-09-24: W vs. [#52LW] Stevie Ray (21-8-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2016-03-19: W vs. [#277LW] Damien Brown (17-12-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Scott Holtzman (2-1-0)
2017-12-09: W vs. [#170LW] Darrell Horcher (13-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2017-04-22: W vs. [*] Michael McBride (8-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-27)
2016-12-17: L vs. [#10FW] Josh Emmett (13-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Alan Patrick Silva Alves – Win%: 68.40
Elo Favorite (Standard): Alan Patrick Silva Alves (1806.66) [+164.10] – Win%: 67.91
Elo Favorite (Modified): Alan Patrick Silva Alves (1809.76) [+146.92] – Win%: 65.55
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alan Patrick Silva Alves 245, Scott Holtzman 301
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#37] Nik Lentz (28-9-2, -221) vs. [*] Gray Maynard (13-6-1, +177)
Gray Maynard is the All-Time #16 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Nik Lentz (1-2-0)
2018-06-01: L vs. [#26LW] David Teymur (8-1-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2017-11-18: W vs. [#19LW] Will Brooks (20-4-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:05 of round 2
2017-02-11: L vs. [#18LW] Islam Makhachev (16-1-0) via UD (30-25, 30-27, 30-25)

Last 3 Fights: Gray Maynard (2-1-0)
2017-07-07: W vs. [#180BW] Teruto Ishihara (10-6-2) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)
2016-12-03: L vs. [*] Ryan Hall (6-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2016-07-08: W vs. [#228FW] Fernando Bruno (16-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Nik Lentz – Win%: 65.60
Elo Favorite (Standard): Nik Lentz (1704.57) [+105.73] – Win%: 61.85
Elo Favorite (Modified): Nik Lentz (1693.83) [+103.20] – Win%: 61.11
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Nik Lentz 127, Gray Maynard 456
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#27] Ryan LaFlare (14-2-0, -156) vs. [#65] Tony Martin (13-4-0, +130)

Last 3 Fights: Ryan LaFlare (2-1-0)
2018-04-21: W vs. [#78WW] Alex Garcia (15-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2017-07-22: L vs. [#15WW] Alex Oliveira (20-5-1) via KO (Punch) in 1:50 of round 2
2017-02-11: W vs. [#66WW] Roan Carneiro (21-12-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-26)

Last 3 Fights: Tony Martin (2-1-0)
2018-04-21: W vs. [#102WW] Keita Nakamura (33-9-2) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2017-09-16: L vs. [#22LW] Olivier Aubin-Mercier (11-3-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2017-06-25: W vs. [#114LW] Johnny Case (24-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Ryan LaFlare – Win%: 58.36
Elo Favorite (Standard): Ryan LaFlare (1894.24) [+160.38] – Win%: 67.54
Elo Favorite (Modified): Ryan LaFlare (1881.81) [+113.27] – Win%: 62.15
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ryan LaFlare 168, Tony Martin 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Favorite rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.

Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Tony Ferguson
Highest Stored DD Rating: Tony Ferguson
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Conor McGregor
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Conor McGregor
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Great [****]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Massive [****½]
Run Date: 2018-9-30


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