Bang for Your Buck: UFC 188

Last week, UFC delivered a great event in Fight Night 68.  With almost every fight on the card ending with a spectacular finish, this is a tough act to follow.  Especially when it’s followed by a very weak Pay-Per-View that, save for the headliner, would be much better suited for a free Fight Night or even a Fight Pass event.

Main Card (Pay-Per-View)

Main Event: (C) [NR] Cain Velasquez vs (IC) [#1 HW] Fabricio Werdum for undisputed UFC Heavyweight Championship.

Worth: $25

Why: Almost six months and countless UFC events into the year, this is only the second fight to receive my maximum single fight valuation of $25 (the first was Jon Jones vs Daniel Cormier at UFC 182).   The reigning UFC heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez will fight for the first time in nearly two years, and this will be his first fight since 2010 against an opponent not named Junior dos Santos or Antonio Silva.  This time he will be facing Fabricio Werdum, who has been on a tear: 5-0 in his current UFC stint, and capturing the interim title that UFC created due to Cain’s extended absence in his most recent fight with Mark Hunt.

This is a great title unification fight between #4 and #5 ranked heavyweights of all time.  And the winner is likely to further climb the all time ranking, besides cementing his #1 spot on the current rankings.  Fabricio Werdum has shown amazing improvement in his recent career, and I won’t be surprised to see him defeat Velasquez, especially since ring rust is a very likely factor (last time Velasquez returned to action after an extended layoff, he was knocked out in the first round by dos Santos).  On the other hand, Werdum is a notorious slow starter who tends to absorb some punishment early on, but weathers the storm and takes over later in the fight when his opponent gets tired.  This could be very bad news against a fighter like Velasquez, who goes all out from the opening bell to the end of the last round, and has the cardio to keep the same insane pace in a five round fight.

But I have no horse in this race – there are great matchups in store for the man who walks away with the unified title.  If Cain retains, he will most likely face Stipe Miocic next, with Andrei Arlovski and Ben Rothwell as viable backup options.  If Werdum overcomes, he will probably get an opportunity to avenge the only stoppage loss of his career against JDS.  The heavyweight division is becoming very fun to watch after years of stagnation, even if there is not a single fighter in the Top 10 under 30 and most of the contenders are familiar faces.  Great fight… and it’s all downhill from here.

Co-Main Event: [#7 LW] Gilbert Melendez vs [#12 LW] Eddie Alvarez

Worth: $10

Why: I should probably be looking forward to this fight more than I actually am; after all, Melendez and Alvarez have been the top lightweights outside of the UFC for many years, and it’s a bit surprising that their paths never crossed until now.  And while both guys have shown that they can hang with the most elite of the UFC fighters, I believe that both are on the downward slope in their careers.  I’m also fairly confident that this fight will end up in a close, possibly controversial decision.  Let’s hope they prove me wrong, or at least have a three round war of a bout.  After all, there is very little to look forward to on this card after the co-main.

Fight:  [#13 MW] Kelvin Gastelum  vs [#32 MW] Nate Marquardt

Worth: $5

Why: This is odd matchmaking to say the least.  ‘The Ultimate Fighter 17’ middleweight winner Kelvin Gastelum immediately dropped down to 170 lbs where he won four consecutive fights and was knocking on the door of title contendership, until he badly missed weight for his most recent bout with Tyron Woodley and ended up losing a split decision.  Since this was not the first time he struggled making weight, he was punished by the UFC brass by being bumped back up to 185, and getting a fight with… the ghost of Nate Marquardt?  This should be an easy win for Gastelum, but it’s also one that does absolutely nothing for his career.  Gastelum stated that he intends to move back down to 170, and a win over Marquardt these days doesn’t mean much at any weight.  A loss on the other hand would be ruinous to Gastelum’s standing as a prospect.   Anyhow, outside of his last bout Gastelum is usually fun to watch, so I’ll throw in a fiver for this meaningless fight.

Fight: [#17 W115] Tecia Torres vs [#35 W115] Angela Hill

Worth: $0

Why: As I mentioned in past write-ups, there are very few women’s fights that captivate my interest enough to valuate them at all.  With the combined pro MMA record of 7-1 between the opponents, this is not one of them.

Fight: [#97 FW] Charles Rosa vs [#204 FW] Yair Rodriguez

Worth: $0

Why: Who vs huh, and why?  Please don’t insult the fans by putting these type of fights on a PPV main card.  It’s barely even Fight Pass prelims material.

Preliminary Card (FX)

Fight: [#8 FLW] Henry Cejudo vs  [#12 FLW] Chico Camus

Worth: $10

Why: This fight should have been on the main card, but I guess they needed a halfway decent fight as a headliner for the prelims, and there wasn’t much else to choose from.  Undefeated Henry Cejudo could be the next ‘big’ thing in the UFC’s lightest men’s division, and the only thing that has threatened his ascension so far were his own difficulties in making the 125 lbs weight class.  With his weight now seemingly under control, Cejudo is 2-0 in the UFC and quickly moving up the ranks.  His opponent Chico Camus is 3-2 (1 NC) in the Octagon, and should provide a fair test for Cejudo.  With a win, Cejudo will be in the title contention talks, and might end up being the next challenger to Demetrious Johnson’s belt after John Dodson gets his rematch.

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Pay-Per-View Card Worth: $40
Event Price: $59.99
Net Value: $-19.99

FX Prelims Worth: $10
FX Prelims Valuation: $2 (see how I came up with this valuation)
Net Value: $8

Event Net Value: $-11.99

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Fight Pass Prelims Worth: $0
Fight Pass Year-to-Date Cost: $59.94
Fight Pass Year-to-Date Value: $-7.94

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PPV YTD Worth: $331
PPV YTD Cost: $419.93
PPV YTD Net Value: $-88.93

Cable (Fox Sports 1/FX) YTD Worth: $245.50
Cable (Fox Sports 1/FX) YTD Valuation: $56
Cable (Fox Sports 1/FX) YTD Net Value: $189.50

Fox YTD Worth/Net Value: $87.50

Total YTD Net Value (excluding Fight Pass): $188.07