Bang for Your Buck: UFC on Fox 15

Apr 16, 2015
oleg

The second UFC on Fox event of 2015 promises to be a great show.  Headlined by a #1 contender bout for the middleweight title, the card also features many other relevant and interesting matchups, with several up-and-comers facing seasoned veterans and looking to break through to the next level.  Of course even this card was not spared by the injury curse:  the scheduled co-main event fight between Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza and Yoel Romero was the fight I was looking forward to the most on this line-up, and just last week Romero pulled out of the bout with an injury.  This is the second time this match up has been scrapped; it was initially slated for UFC 184 but that time Souza came down with a bout of pneumonia.  Maybe this fight was just not meant to be… or maybe the third time will be a charm?  Anyhow, I am not too mad about losing this fight, considering how stacked the rest of the card is.   In fact it’s so good that even the prelims will be broadcast on Fox instead of the usual Fox Sports 1 (save for the three fights relegated to Fight Pass).

Main Event: [#2 MW] Lyoto Machida vs [#6 MW] Luke Rockhold

Worth: $20

Why: While fans might be upset about Souza-Romero dropping off the card, Rockhold and especially Machida are probably elated about it.   After all, any of these four could have been the next contender, depending on which winner of the two fights was more impressive in his performance.  Machida has faced the champion Chris Weidman in Weidman’s first title defense, and if Lyoto were to beat Rockhold and Weidman retains his title against Vitor Belfort, the winner of Souza-Romero would likely jump the line to avoid having Weidman-Machida II so soon.  Now, the winner of this fight is virtually guaranteed the next shot, no matter who the champion is at the time and even if this fight ends up a total snoozer.  I’m a bit surprised by Rockhold being a slight betting favorite against Machida.  Either way, it’s a very solid main event to cap off a night of free fights.

Fight: [#3 MW] Ronaldo Souza vs [#36 MW] Chris Camozzi

Worth: $0

Why: Perhaps Romero dropping out of this fight was a blessing in disguise; this would have been a fight worthy of being a main event, and I hope they reschedule it as one for a future Fight Night – three rounds is not doing justice to such an awesome matchup.  But enough about Romero… he is out, and apparently Chris Camozzi is the best opponent the UFC could find for ‘Jacare’ on such a short notice.  This is essentially a stay-busy fight for Souza, who is a 10-1 betting favorite for a good reason: he already defeated Camozzi by first round submission in Souza’s UFC debut a little over two years ago, and has only been improving since.  Camozzi in the meanwhile lost three straight decisions after the Souza fight, was released from the UFC, and is now making his return to the Octagon after only one fight outside of the promotion.  It’s a great opportunity for Chris, but I just can’t see it going much differently from their first encounter.  Considering the circumstances I can’t blame UFC for keeping Souza on the card and feeding him a warm body… but this is one rematch I have absolutely no interest in.

 

Fight: [#6 FW] Cub Swanson vs [#13 FW] Max Holloway

Worth: $10

Why: After losing his UFC debut to Ricardo Lamas, Cub Swanson won his next six fights – all against solid competition – and was on the verge of a title shot before being thoroughly dominated and finished with only seconds left in his fight with Frankie Edgar.  His opponent Max Holloway has already racked up 11 fights in the UFC despite being only 23 years old, and is riding a five win streak since dropping a decision to Conor McGregor.  For Swanson, this is a chance to prove that he still deserves to be considered among the featherweight elite.  For Holloway, it’s an opportunity to break into the Top 10 and rise from prospect to contender status.  Both guys are aggressive strikers and this should be a great fight.

 

Fight:  [#20 W115] Felice Herrig  vs [NR] Paige VanZant

Worth: $2.50

Why:  The women’s strawweight division has really been heating up lately, with Joanna Jedrzejczyk taking the title from Carla Esparza in a very impressive manner, and Maryna Moroz pulling off an incredible upset last week over Joanne Calderwood.  The UFC is wasting no time building up this weight class, and this is one of the more interesting women’s fights currently scheduled.  Felice Herrig is one of the very  few ‘name’ women fighters from pre-Ronda Rousey era who managed to stay relevant in UFC, and Paige VanZant is one of the young prospects to watch.  Interestingly, VanZant is the betting favorite here despite being the much lower ranked fighter and her inexperience relative to Herrig.  I am not surprised by this odds-vs-ranking discrepancy in this instance, as WMMA is evolving at an incredible pace, and there is a changing of the guard taking place in front of our eyes.  A victory for VanZant will continue this trend.

 

Fight:  [#21 LW] Beneil Dariush vs [#33 LW] Jim Miller

Worth: $10

Why: Jim Miller was initially slated to face Paul Felder on this card, but when an injury forced Felder out of the bout, we ended up with an arguably more interesting fight as a result.  Barely a month after a putting in a very impressive performance in his win against Daron Cruikshank, submission ace Beneil Dariush now gets to test his mettle against a very well rounded grizzled veteran, who despite being ranked lower than Dariush is still a huge step up in competition.   Miller’s best years are probably behind him but you can always count on him for an exciting fight.

 

Fight: [#8 LHW] Ovince St. Preux vs [#45 LHW] Patrick Cummins

Worth: $10

Why: This is another fight with a big discrepancy between rankings and betting odds.  There are several such fights on this card, but this one surprises me the most: OSP holds a significant advantage over Cummins not only in experience, but also in every area of MMA besides wrestling.  Perhaps St. Preux loss to Ryan Bader is the reason odds-makers have Cummins as a favorite, perceiving wrestling to be a gap in Ovince’s game.  Cummins has won three straight fights after losing to Daniel Cormier on short notice in his UFC debut, but it’s is a huge jump from fighting the likes of Kyle Kingsbury to a legit top-10 ranked opponent, and I just don’t see him being able to hold down Ovince for three rounds without getting caught with a big punch or locked in a submission.

 

Fight: [#14 BW] Takeya Mizugaki vs [#24 BW] Aljamain Sterling

Worth: $2.50

Why: After alternating wins and losses in his first four UFC fights, Takeya Mizugaki won his next five and was on a verge of a title shot, before getting ran over in 61 seconds by Dominic Cruz.  No shame in being dominated by ‘The Dominator’, but the manner of this loss combined with his propensity for very close fights makes it seem unlikely that he will make it back into title picture again. The fact that 12 of Mizugaki’s 15 UFC and WEC fights went to decision also makes him not the most exciting fighter to watch.  Here he is taking on an undefeated prospect Aljamain Sterling, who has been much more of a finisher but hasn’t fought anywhere near Mizugaki’s level of competition.  This is a chance for Sterling to break through to the next level; but I feel like Mizugaki will grind out another split decision in an uneventful fight.

 

Fight Pass Prelims

Fight: [#29 WW] Tim Means vs [#38 WW] George Sullivan

Worth: $5

Why: Riding a 3-win streak in UFC, Tim ‘The Dirty Bird’ Means has become a fighter to watch in the welterweight division after his destruction of Dhiego Lima at UFC 184.  He returned to action quickly, stepping up on short notice against George Sullivan, who is 2-0 in the Octagon.   I really wish this fight were swapped with Corey Anderson vs Giant Villante for the Fox prelims instead of being buried on Fight Pass.

 

Fight:  [#64 FW] Diego Brandao  vs [#100 FW] Jim Hettes

Worth: $0

Why:  I valued this fight at $2.50 when it was originally scheduled for UFC 183.  The fight was cancelled at the last moment due to Hettes falling ill.  I guess I’ll take a rain-check.

Fox Card Worth: $55
Fox Card Cost: $0
Net Value: $55  (Hey, a free card almost worth the price of a PPV! It’s as if UFC is paying it forward for the following week’s horrid line-up of UFC 186)

Event Net Value (excluding Fight Pass prelims): $55

Fight Pass Prelims Worth: $5.00
Fight Pass Year-to-Date Cost: $39.96
Fight Pass Year-to-Date Value: $-18.96

Fox YTD Worth/Net Value: $87.50

 

Leave A Comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Before asking where a specific fighter is ranked or why they aren't ranked:


- We update the rankings once per week, usually on Sunday or Monday.

- Fighters who have not fought in 450 days or more ARE NOT RANKED UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES.

- Use the "Fighter Search" option in the upper-right of the page. The fighter may be ranked in a different division.

- Most of the divisions have multiple pages beyond this one. See the clickable ranges above and below the ranking table.

Furthermore, we do not maintain the "next fight" data. This is gathered from Sherdog. Any issues regarding this data should be forwarded to them.