Bang for Your Buck: UFC 184

I’ll start off this blog by stating a brutally honest though likely unpopular opinion: I am still not totally sold on WMMA. I’ll admit that it is starting to slowly grow on me, and perhaps a day will come when I can value women in the UFC as much I appreciate as their male colleagues. That day is not likely to come soon – not until there is much more depth to the talent pool, and certainly not for as long as ‘UFC`s Womens Divisions’ is synonymous with ‘The Ronda Rousey Show’.

Needless to say, when the middleweight title fight between Chris Weidman and Vitor Belfort which was slated to headline UFC 184 was cancelled for an umpteenth time, my interest in this event plummeted faster than ‘Bigfoot’ Silva hitting the canvas after eating a hook from Frank Mir. A PPV headlined by two women’s bouts is the start of a very weak card in my opinion, and it’s further weakened by the fact that in both of those fights one of the opponents is around a 10-1 favorite. It doesn’t help that the rest of the card is mostly filled with fighters way past their competitive primes, guys on losing streaks, and various nondescript non-contenders. All in all, this event just might receive the lowest valuation of any UFC PPV in 2015 (and I really hope I didn’t just jinx myself with that statement).  Anyway, let’s get on with it:

Main Event: (C) [#1 W135] Ronda Rousey vs [#4 W135] Cat Zingano  for UFC Women’s Bantamweight title

Worth: $10

Why: You have to give credit where it’s due.  Not only is Ronda Rousey by far the best fighter in her division (and likely the best female MMA fighter in any weight class), her combination of skill, charisma, and looks single-handedly convinced Dana White to change his mind on women fighting in the UFC.  Rousey’s performances in the Octagon are a work of art.  Unfortunately she is an artist who only has a very small canvas to work with.  Of course I am not talking about the literal canvas covering the cage floor, but rather the limited pool of competition available to challenge her.

On paper, this is a fairly close match-up.  Both women are undefeated in professional bouts, and while Rousey has a perfect 100% finish rate in her 10 victories, Zingano stopped 8 out of 9 opponents.   However there is a reason that Cat is a 10-to-1 underdog in this fight: she just hasn’t shown her athleticism or skillset to be on Ronda’s level.  And while both women are finishers, the main difference is that all but one of Rousey’s fights were finished in the first round, while most of Zingano’s finishes came in the latter rounds.  In this instance, I don’t think she will make it past round one.  I love upsets and hope to be pleasantly surprised, but realistically it seems unlikely that Zingano will be able to pose a serious challenge, let alone dethrone Rousey.

Co-Main Event: [#13 W135] Raquel Pennington vs [#14 W135] Holly Holm

Worth: $2.50

Why: As soon as UFC introduced the women’s bantamweight division, Holly Holm’s name has been thrown around as a potential contender.  Holm is a former professional boxer with many championship titles in multiple weight classes, as well as kickboxing experience and an undefeated 7-0 record in MMA.  So it’s only natural that the UFC will groom Holm as a challenger for Rousey, should both women win their fights at 184.  And they both should.  While Holm is ranked a bit lower than her opponent Raquel Pennington, she is almost as big of a betting favorite in this fight as Rousey is over Zingano.  I’m going to have to side with the odds-makers over our ratings in this case: Pennington has a very modest 5-4 record, and the only reason she is ranked higher than Holm is that Holm doesn’t have any wins over ‘name’ opponents.  Nonetheless, she destroyed everyone she faced, and I don’t think Pennington is a huge step up in competition.

Fight: [#19 WW] Jake Ellenberger vs [NR] Josh Koscheck

Worth: $5

Why: This is one of those ‘loser leaves town’ match-ups that you can find on almost every single UFC card.  While Jake Ellenberger is only 29 yeas old, he has been competing in MMA for over 10 years – just about as long as 37-year-old Koscheck.  Both guys have shown signs of wear and tear that a decade of fighting will inflict upon a human body.  Both are on 3 fight losing streaks, and both have been finished in two of those three losses.  Another loss for Ellenberger will most likely signal a release from his UFC contract, while a loss for Koscheck should trigger a retirement talk with Dana White.  These types of fights are always a bit sad to watch, but such is the reality of this sport.

Fight: [#90 WW] Alan Jouban  vs [#320 WW] Richard Walsh

Worth: $0

Why: #90 vs #320, combined UFC record of 2-2, both guys coming off losses… Can anyone please explain to me, why is this fight on a main card of a PPV and why should I care about it?

Fight: [#19 LW] Tony Ferguson vs [#21 LW] Gleison Tibau

Worth: $10

Why: Making a quick turn-around only 6 weeks after his last fight, Gleison Tibau will enter the Octagon for the 25th time, which will tie him with Matt Hughes for the second place with most UFC bouts.  A win here will put him at 17 – tied for third place with Anderson Silva for most wins in UFC.  Pretty impressive for a journeyman, and I am a sucker for records and statistics, so  I’m willing to overlook the fact that his fights are often dull, grinding affairs.  I am also hoping that Tony Ferguson – a sometimes flawed but always exciting fighter who is coming into his own as a lightweight prospect – will bring out the best in Gleison.  This is honestly the fight I am looking towards the most on this entire card.

Prelims (Fox Sports 1)

Fight: [#17 MW] Mark Munoz vs [#34 WW] Roan Carneiro

Worth: $2.50

Why: When I hear the name Roan Carneiro, the first thing that comes to mind is the beautiful sweep and G-n-P finish inflicted on Roan in only his second pro fight, by young Anderson Silva back in 2002.   Carneiro’s resume since then included an unmemorable 2-3 run in UFC in ’07-’08, and a late career resurrection culminating with a recent one-night, 8 man welterweight tournament win at Battlegrounds MMA, which bought him a ticket back to the Octagon.  For some reason he is returning as a middleweight and taking on a struggling Mark Munoz, who is 1-3 in his last four fights, having been brutally finished in all three losses.  I really don’t know what to make of this fight, yet I am oddly intrigued by it.

Fight: [#63 HW] Derrick Lewis vs [#176 HW] Ruan Potts

Worth: $2.50

Why: Two heavyweights with 100% finish rate means someone is almost certainly getting finished here.   Good meaningless violence to start off the prelims, even if neither guy has a long-term future in the UFC.

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Pay-Per-View Card Worth: $27.50
Event Price: $59.99
Net Value: $-32.49.  Ouch.

Fox Sports 1 Prelims Worth: $5
Fox Sports 1 Prelims Valuation: $2 (see how I came up with this valuation)
Net Value: $3.00

Event Net Value: $-29.49

Fight Pass Prelims Worth: $0
Fight Pass Year-to-Date Cost: $19.98
Fight Pass Year-to-Date Value: $-14.98

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PPV YTD Worth: $143.50
PPV YTD Cost: $179.97
Net Value: $-36.47

Fox Sports 1 YTD Worth: $59.50
Fox Sports 1 YTD Valuation: $23
Net Value: $36.50

Fox YTD Worth/Net Value: $32.50

Total YTD Net Value (excluding Fight Pass): $32.53