About a year ago, I posted the second update to my original post.
I feel the need to keep revisiting this as we get more data, because every few months I see this topic bubble up to the top of various sites and forums.
In summary, we started tracking weigh-in weights, and I wanted to see if the heavier fighters won more often than lighter fighters. Using the same ideals as before, with an even larger data set:
- In 1,123 non-draw official pro fights where both fighters weighed in at different weights, but above 210 (our Light Heavyweight limit), 556 were won by the lighter fighter, and 567 won by the heavier fighter (50.5%).
- When you allow for mismatches and include matches in which only one fighter had to weigh above 210, the total tally increases to 1322 and the heavier fighter only won 651 (49.2%).
- For the record, across the board, the heavier fighter has won 52.6% of the time.
The results are nearly identical to before, though the heavier fighter (again) gained ground in all three statistics. There are a few possibilities to explain this and it could be a combination of: