Fight Matrix Program – UFC 268: Usman vs Covington 2 (11-06-2021)

Nov 1, 2021
Jason

Welterweight Championship (170)
[#1/#1DD/#1P4P] Kamaru Usman (19-1-0, -290) vs. [#3] Colby Covington (16-2-0, +233)
Kamaru Usman is the All-Time #3 ranked Welterweight and #18 ranked Absolute fighter.
Colby Covington is the All-Time #14 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Kamaru Usman (3-0-0)
2021-04-24: W vs. [#4WW] Jorge Masvidal (35-15-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:02 of round 2
2021-02-13: W vs. [#2WW] Gilbert Burns (20-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:34 of round 3
2020-07-11: W vs. [#4WW] Jorge Masvidal (35-15-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Colby Covington (2-1-0)
2020-09-19: W vs. [#20WW] Tyron Woodley (19-7-1) via TKO (Rib Injury) in 1:19 of round 5
2019-12-14: L vs. [#1WW/#1DD/#1P4P] Kamaru Usman (19-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:10 of round 5
2019-08-03: W vs. [#56WW] Robbie Lawler (29-15-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-44)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Kamaru Usman -290 71.23%
Elo K170 Kamaru Usman 2507.44 +255.05 76.23%
Elo Modified Kamaru Usman 2442.04 +251.09 75.01%
Glicko-1 Kamaru Usman 2568.73 +338.78 87.55%
WHR Kamaru Usman 2296.19 +269.56 77.41%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kamaru Usman 196, Colby Covington 413
Previous Match-up Record: Kamaru Usman leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 4 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Women Strawweight Championship (115)
[#1/#2DD/#3P4P] Rose Namajunas (10-4-0, -120) vs. [#2/#4DD/#5P4P] Weili Zhang (21-2-0, -102)
Rose Namajunas is the All-Time #11 ranked Women’s fighter.
Weili Zhang is the All-Time #15 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Rose Namajunas (2-1-0)
2021-04-24: W vs. [#2SW/#4DD/#5P4P] Weili Zhang (21-2-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 1:18 of round 1
2020-07-11: W vs. [#2FLY/#7DD/#10P4P] Jessica Andrade (22-9-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-05-11: L vs. [#2FLY/#7DD/#10P4P] Jessica Andrade (22-9-0) via KO (Slam) in 2:58 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Weili Zhang (2-1-0)
2021-04-24: L vs. [#1SW/#2DD/#3P4P] Rose Namajunas (10-4-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 1:18 of round 1
2020-03-07: W vs. [*] Joanna Jedrzejczyk (16-4-0) via SD (47-48, 48-47, 48-47)
2019-08-31: W vs. [#2FLY/#7DD/#10P4P] Jessica Andrade (22-9-0) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 0:42 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Rose Namajunas -120 51.92%
Elo K170 Rose Namajunas 1950.32 +126.46 64.05%
Elo Modified Rose Namajunas 1885.39 +122.35 63.08%
Glicko-1 Rose Namajunas 1877.92 +120.15 66.63%
WHR Rose Namajunas 1789.48 +92.02 60.36%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rose Namajunas 196, Weili Zhang 196
Previous Match-up Record: Rose Namajunas leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Rose Namajunas leads 4-3
.

Lightweight (155)
[#3] Justin Gaethje (22-3-0, -179) vs. [#8] Michael Chandler (22-6-0, +148)
Justin Gaethje is the All-Time #16 ranked Lightweight fighter.
Michael Chandler is the All-Time #17 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Justin Gaethje (2-1-0)
2020-10-24: L vs. [*] Khabib Nurmagomedov (29-0-0) via Technical Submission (Triangle Choke) in 1:34 of round 2
2020-05-09: W vs. [#7LW] Tony Ferguson (25-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:39 of round 5
2019-09-14: W vs. [#57WW] Donald Cerrone (36-16-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:18 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Michael Chandler (2-1-0)
2021-05-15: L vs. [#2LW/#8DD] Charles Oliveira (31-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:19 of round 2
2021-01-23: W vs. [#10LW] Dan Hooker (21-11-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:30 of round 1
2020-08-07: W vs. [#61LW] Ben Henderson (28-11-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:09 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Justin Gaethje -179 61.40%
Elo K170 Justin Gaethje 2243.25 +160.78 67.58%
Elo Modified Justin Gaethje 2180.10 +148.54 65.71%
Glicko-1 Justin Gaethje 2276.49 +171.79 72.89%
WHR Justin Gaethje 2000.17 +40.04 54.56%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Justin Gaethje 378, Michael Chandler 175
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Michael Chandler leads 1-0
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#8] Frankie Edgar (24-9-1, +135) vs. [#15] Marlon Vera (18-7-1, -162)
Frankie Edgar is the All-Time #16 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Frankie Edgar (1-2-0)
2021-02-06: L vs. [#5BW] Cory Sandhagen (14-4-0) via KO (Flying Knee) in 0:28 of round 1
2020-08-22: W vs. [#9BW] Pedro Munhoz (19-6-0) via SD (48-47, 46-49, 48-47)
2019-12-21: L vs. [#6FW] Chan Sung Jung (17-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:18 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Marlon Vera (2-1-0)
2021-06-19: W vs. [#78BW] Davey Grant (13-5-0) via UD (29-27, 30-26, 29-28)
2020-12-19: L vs. [#4BW] Jose Aldo (30-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2020-08-15: W vs. [#48BW] Sean OMalley (14-1-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 4:40 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Marlon Vera -162 59.23%
Elo K170 Frankie Edgar 1921.64 +125.17 63.92%
Elo Modified Frankie Edgar 1876.38 +84.73 59.17%
Glicko-1 Frankie Edgar 1880.31 +28.63 54.11%
WHR Frankie Edgar 1743.58 +2.20 50.25%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Frankie Edgar 273, Marlon Vera 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#97] Andreas Michailidis (13-4-0, +202) vs. [#221] Alexsandro Pereira (3-1-0, -255)

Last 3 Fights: Andreas Michailidis (2-1-0)
2021-05-01: W vs. [#164MW] K.B. Bhullar (9-3-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2020-07-15: L vs. [#73LHW] Modestas Bukauskas (11-5-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 5:00 of round 1
2019-12-13: W vs. [*] Arymarcel Santos (41-38-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:13 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Alexsandro Pereira (3-0-0)
2020-11-20: W vs. [#386MW] Thomas Powell (5-6-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:04 of round 1
2016-05-21: W vs. [*] Marcus Vinicius Fialho da (11-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:55 of round 2
2016-01-23: W vs. [*] Marcelo Cruz (10-9-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:07 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Alexsandro Pereira -255 68.44%
Elo K170 Andreas Michailidis 1539.75 +240.69 75.02%
Elo Modified Andreas Michailidis 1581.72 +135.81 64.44%
Glicko-1 Andreas Michailidis 1599.46 +258.67 81.59%
WHR Andreas Michailidis 1563.70 +252.69 76.03%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Andreas Michailidis 189, Alexsandro Pereira 351
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[*] Al Iaquinta (15-6-1, +127) vs. [#37] Bobby Green (27-12-1, -154)
Al Iaquinta is the All-Time #45 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Al Iaquinta (1-2-0)
2019-10-05: L vs. [#10LW] Dan Hooker (21-11-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
2019-05-04: L vs. [#57WW] Donald Cerrone (36-16-0) via UD (49-45, 49-45, 49-46)
2018-12-15: W vs. [#61WW] Kevin Lee (18-7-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Bobby Green (1-2-0)
2021-08-07: L vs. [#15LW] Rafael Fiziev (10-1-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2020-10-31: L vs. [#16LW] Thiago Moises (15-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2020-09-12: W vs. [#203LW] Alan Patrick (15-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Bobby Green -154 57.91%
Elo K170 Al Iaquinta 1877.36 +253.73 76.12%
Elo Modified Al Iaquinta 1848.17 +216.37 72.06%
Glicko-1 Al Iaquinta 1914.39 +243.29 80.22%
WHR Al Iaquinta 1685.62 +18.87 52.15%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Al Iaquinta 763, Bobby Green 91
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#22] Shane Burgos (13-3-0, -202) vs. [#44] Billy Quarantillo (16-3-0, +166)

Last 3 Fights: Shane Burgos (1-2-0)
2021-05-15: L vs. [#13FW] Edson Barboza (22-10-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:16 of round 3
2020-06-20: L vs. [*] Josh Emmett (16-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-27)
2019-11-02: W vs. [#79FW] Makwan Amirkhani (16-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:32 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Billy Quarantillo (2-1-0)
2021-07-17: W vs. [#195FW] Gabriel Benitez (22-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:40 of round 3
2020-12-12: L vs. [#47FW] Gavin Tucker (13-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2020-09-12: W vs. [#205FW] Kyle Nelson (13-4-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:07 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Shane Burgos -202 64.02%
Elo K170 Shane Burgos 1737.60 +21.57 52.46%
Elo Modified Billy Quarantillo 1724.32 +10.01 51.10%
Glicko-1 Billy Quarantillo 1809.05 +69.50 59.87%
WHR Billy Quarantillo 1676.89 +50.74 55.77%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Shane Burgos 175, Billy Quarantillo 112
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#17] Nassourdine Imavov (10-3-0, -148) vs. [#30] Edmen Shahbazyan (11-2-0, +122)

Last 3 Fights: Nassourdine Imavov (2-1-0)
2021-07-24: W vs. [#21MW] Ian Heinisch (14-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:09 of round 2
2021-02-20: L vs. [#64MW] Phil Hawes (11-2-0) via MD (29-28, 28-28, 29-28)
2020-10-03: W vs. [#372WW] Jordan Williams (9-5-0) via UD (29-27, 29-28, 29-27)

Last 3 Fights: Edmen Shahbazyan (1-2-0)
2021-05-22: L vs. [#7MW] Jack Hermansson (22-6-0) via UD (29-27, 29-27, 29-27)
2020-08-01: L vs. [#5MW] Derek Brunson (23-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:26 of round 3
2019-11-02: W vs. [#15MW] Brad Tavares (19-6-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 2:27 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Nassourdine Imavov -148 56.98%
Elo K170 Edmen Shahbazyan 1717.46 +99.14 61.13%
Elo Modified Edmen Shahbazyan 1708.48 +30.63 53.35%
Glicko-1 Nassourdine Imavov 1753.35 +16.75 52.41%
WHR Nassourdine Imavov 1676.97 +65.01 57.37%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Nassourdine Imavov 105, Edmen Shahbazyan 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Flyweight (125)
[#48] Carlos Vergara (9-2-1, +131) vs. [#116] Ode Osbourne (9-4-0, -159)

Last 3 Fights: Carlos Vergara (3-0-0)
2021-09-07: W vs. [#99FLY] Bruno Mesquita (12-4-1) via KO (Knee to the Body) in 0:41 of round 1
2021-03-06: W vs. [#207FLY] Jacob Silva (8-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:38 of round 3
2019-10-27: W vs. [#391FLY] Shawn Solis (6-4-0) via KO in 4:05 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Ode Osbourne (1-2-0)
2021-08-07: L vs. [#7FLY] Manel Kape (16-6-0) via KO (Flying Knee and Punches) in 4:44 of round 1
2021-02-06: W vs. [#117FLY] Jerome Rivera (10-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:26 of round 1
2020-01-18: L vs. [#46BW] Brian Kelleher (23-12-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:49 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ode Osbourne -159 58.64%
Elo K170 Carlos Vergara 1502.96 +156.82 67.18%
Elo Modified Carlos Vergara 1542.01 +177.43 68.50%
Glicko-1 Carlos Vergara 1583.92 +213.84 77.40%
WHR Carlos Vergara 1514.46 +160.79 67.58%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Carlos Vergara 60, Ode Osbourne 91
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#180] Ian Garry (7-0-0, -351) vs. [#372] Jordan Williams (9-5-0, +272)

Last 3 Fights: Ian Garry (3-0-0)
2021-06-26: W vs. [#223WW] Jack Grant (18-7-0) via UD ()
2021-03-19: W vs. [#497WW] Rostem Akman (6-3-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 2:28 of round 2
2020-12-12: W vs. [#806WW] Lawrence Jordan Tracey (5-5-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 4:02 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Jordan Williams (1-2-0)
2021-07-24: L vs. [#120WW] Mickey Gall (7-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:57 of round 1
2020-10-03: L vs. [#17MW] Nassourdine Imavov (10-3-0) via UD (29-27, 29-28, 29-27)
2020-09-15: W vs. [#50MW] Gregory Rodrigues (11-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:19 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ian Garry -351 74.32%
Elo K170 Ian Garry 1534.87 +225.75 73.72%
Elo Modified Ian Garry 1600.80 +206.16 71.14%
Glicko-1 Ian Garry 1605.06 +211.30 77.14%
WHR Ian Garry 1536.96 +60.01 56.81%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ian Garry 133, Jordan Williams 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#120] Chris Barnett (21-7-0, -133) vs. [#124] Gian Villante (17-13-0, +109)

Last 3 Fights: Chris Barnett (2-1-0)
2021-05-22: L vs. [#27HW+] Ben Rothwell (39-13-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:07 of round 2
2020-09-25: W vs. [NA] Ahmed Tijani Shehu (0-1-0) via TKO in 0:58 of round 1
2019-10-10: W vs. [#270HW+] Rashaun Jackson (5-4-0) via SD ()

Last 3 Fights: Gian Villante (0-3-0)
2020-12-05: L vs. [#76HW+] Jake Collier (12-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2020-06-27: L vs. [#63HW+] Maurice Greene (9-6-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:44 of round 3
2019-02-23: L vs. [#34LHW] Michal Oleksiejczuk (18-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:34 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Chris Barnett -133 54.39%
Elo K170 Chris Barnett 1416.62 +64.72 57.34%
Elo Modified Chris Barnett 1401.41 +19.75 52.16%
Glicko-1 Chris Barnett 1394.05 +31.37 54.50%
WHR Chris Barnett 1346.12 +41.08 54.68%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Chris Barnett 168, Gian Villante 336
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#89] John Allan (14-6-0, +113) vs. [#132] Aleksa Camur (6-2-0, -137)

Last 3 Fights: John Allan (2-1-0)
2020-12-05: L vs. [#57MW] Roman Dolidze (9-1-0) via SD (29-28, 30-27, 28-29)
2019-07-13: W vs. [#107LHW] Mike Rodriguez (11-8-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-06-28: W vs. [*] Alexandre Silva (7-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 01:33 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Aleksa Camur (1-2-0)
2021-06-19: L vs. [#96LHW] Nicolae Negumereanu (11-1-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2020-09-26: L vs. [#69LHW] William Knight (10-2-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2020-01-18: W vs. [#154LHW] Justin Ledet (9-4-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Aleksa Camur -137 55.18%
Elo K170 John Allan 1453.33 +174.53 68.94%
Elo Modified John Allan 1546.26 +125.10 63.36%
Glicko-1 John Allan 1588.09 +176.13 73.38%
WHR John Allan 1460.47 +87.71 59.89%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: John Allan 336, Aleksa Camur 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#149] T.J. Laramie (12-4-0, +205) vs. [#178] Melsik Baghdasaryan (6-1-0, -260)

Last 3 Fights: T.J. Laramie (2-1-0)
2020-09-19: L vs. [#68FW] Darrick Minner (26-12-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 0:52 of round 1
2020-08-11: W vs. [#372FW] Daniel Swain (20-11-1) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 1
2019-12-06: W vs. [#219FW] Andrew Cruz (7-4-0) via UD ()

Last 3 Fights: Melsik Baghdasaryan (3-0-0)
2021-07-31: W vs. [#471FW] Collin Anglin (8-2-0) via KO (Head Kick and Punches) in 1:50 of round 2
2020-09-01: W vs. [#323FW] Dennis Buzukja (6-2-0) via UD ()
2019-09-21: W vs. [*] Art Hernandez (4-5-0) via TKO in 0:07 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Melsik Baghdasaryan -260 68.77%
Elo K170 T.J. Laramie 1502.33 +90.99 60.24%
Elo Modified T.J. Laramie 1546.90 +119.97 62.83%
Glicko-1 T.J. Laramie 1548.77 +102.31 64.31%
WHR T.J. Laramie 1480.71 +32.16 53.67%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: T.J. Laramie 413, Melsik Baghdasaryan 98
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#52] Chris Curtis (26-8-0, +259) vs. [#64] Phil Hawes (11-2-0, -336)

Last 3 Fights: Chris Curtis (3-0-0)
2021-07-30: W vs. [#400WW] Kenny Robertson (15-7-0) via UD ()
2021-05-14: W vs. [#218LHW] Jarome Hatch (26-18-0) via TKO (Strikes) in 1:30 of round 3
2021-04-02: W vs. [#437MW] Juan Ramon Grano Medina (7-6-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:13 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Phil Hawes (3-0-0)
2021-05-08: W vs. [#74MW] Kyle Daukaus (10-2-0) via UD (30-26, 29-27, 30-26)
2021-02-20: W vs. [#17MW] Nassourdine Imavov (10-3-0) via MD (29-28, 28-28, 29-28)
2020-10-24: W vs. [#129MW] Jacob Malkoun (5-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:18 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Phil Hawes -336 73.44%
Elo K170 Chris Curtis 1742.24 +43.71 54.98%
Elo Modified Chris Curtis 1775.88 +68.16 57.41%
Glicko-1 Chris Curtis 1852.83 +154.27 70.85%
WHR Chris Curtis 1727.46 +44.11 55.02%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Chris Curtis 99, Phil Hawes 182
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
 



Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Kamaru Usman
Highest Stored DD Rating: Kamaru Usman
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Great [****]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Very Large [****]
Run Date: 2021-11-1

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