The match-up between Jon Jones and Daniel Cormier is the first UFC title fight where the fighters have 35 or more combined wins with only 1 or fewer combined losses.
When throwing in non-title fights, this has only occurred once, when Brock Larson (21-1) faced Keita Nakamura (15-0) back in 2006.
As a recap, most “Fighter of the Year” awards on other sites are really “Breakout Fighter of the Year” awards in that fighters who win, were usually not top fighters in the beginning of the year, but became so by the end of the year.
A fighter like this can and has won our FotY awards, but our award is more about maintaining a high standing during the award year by performing well a sufficient number of times and against sufficient quality of opponents. It is more comparable to a season MVP, not a playoffs/surprise MVP.
Winner: Jose Aldo
It was a quiet year for elite fighters, but Aldo held steady, again, defending his UFC title twice in the same year. As low as twice sounds, try finding better in 2014.
Runner-Up: Demetrious Johnson
After winning the award in 2013, Aldo edges him out for 2014. Like Aldo, he defended his UFC title twice but against lesser competition.
3rd Place: Robbie Lawler
Surely the pick for FotY from a “breakthrough” perspective, Lawler finally made it to the top of the Welterweight mountain just before the year ended. After going 3-1 in 2014, it will be interesting to see if Lawler can stay at the top of the heap.
As a recap, most “Fighter of the Year” awards on other sites are really “Breakout Fighter of the Year” awards in that fighters who win, were usually not top fighters in the beginning of the year, but became so by the end of the year.
A fighter like this can and has won our FotY awards, but our award is more about maintaining a high standing during the award year by performing well a sufficient number of times and against sufficient quality of opponents. It is more comparable to a season MVP, not a playoffs/surprise MVP.
Winner: Ronda Rousey
This is the 3rd straight win for Rousey, who maintains “status quo” as the best female fighter in the sport. She again, remained #1 all year, beating two quality opponents within the first round to further cement her dominance within the sport.
Runner-Up: Jessica Aguilar
Those dubbing Carla Esparza as the top Strawweight, may have forgotten about Aguilar. In 2014, she defended her lesser regarded WSOF championship three times against respectable, but not elite competition. She has not lost a fight in over 4 years.
3rd Place: Herica Tiburcio
In her first fight away from Brazil, she found success in her first fight at 105,which is probably the best weight class for her. She throttled the “Karate Hottie” in 2014 to gain the only 105lb title belt that really matters. Her options in this division are limited, with a rematch against Waterson and a fight against Hamasaki as the only two fights that make sense unless a ranked Strawweight drops down.
Men: Chris de la Rocha
Ending his year with a win over the respectable DJ Linderman, the Heavyweight from the northwest is 3-0 heading into 2015 with a ranking well inside of the Top 100 in the Heavyweight division.
Honorable Mentions: Alvaro Correa, Zelimkhan Umiev, Chris Padilla
Women: Jessica Miele
Getting into the Top 5 at 3-1 speaks partially for her triumphs and partially for being in what is likely the weakest division in the entire sport. Nevertheless, her latest two wins were over a previously 5-0 fighter that was once ranked in the Top 15. Our honorable mentions may be the fighters to watch moving forward as they have undefeated records in a division that the UFC observes, but I would not be surprised to see Miele on a major card (Invicta) before Santos and Moroz.
Honorable Mentions: Marilia Santos, Maryna Moroz
Most Improved Fighter of the Year: Tom Gallicchio
Tom Gallicchio went 1-3 in 2011, took off 2012 entirely, and had something of a tune-up bout in 2013 — which left him toward the bottom of the Welterweight division. Whether it was improvement, or finding his optimal weight class, he has since moved to Lightweight and reeled off two wins over Kurt Southern in 2014. This boosted Gallicchio well into the Top 100.
Honorable Mention: Bubba Jenkins
Note: We have two ways that we derive biggest “upsets” based on points difference between winner and loser.
“Most Noteworthy” (X minus Y)
“Most Lopsided” (X divided by Y)
Most Noteworthy: Andrei Arlovski KO(1) Antonio Silva
Arlovski turned back the clock in an unbelievably unexpected win against Silva. I’m not sure Arlovski himself saw this one coming.
Honorable Mentions: Anthony Johnson UD(3) Phil Davis, Ben Rothwell TKO(1) Alistair Overeem
Most Lopsided: T.J Dillashaw TKO(5) Renan Barao
When you’re roughly a 9.5-to-1 favorite as Barao was, you’re just expected to go out there and take care of business. Well, that didn’t happen and hopefully the sequel is on tap for early-mid 2015 as Cruz has again proven to be weak in the knees.
Honorable Mentions: Andrei Arlovski KO(1) Antonio Silva, Ben Rothwell TKO(1) Alistair Overeem
Most Noteworthy Match of the Year: Chris Weidman vs. Lyoto Machida
Weidman is on the winning side of the equation for two years straight. There’s not much to say here. This award is about combined relevance and this was a UFC Title Match featuring the undefeated champion and one of the best fighters in history.
Honorable Mentions: Jose Aldo vs. Chad Mendes, Jose Aldo vs. Ricardo Lamas
As a refresher, our “Comeback” award is about coming back from inactivity or major injury (that we know about) and in doing so, really impressing. You can see more details at the bottom of the post about specific qualifiers.
Comeback Fighter of the Year: Tito Ortiz
The award was wrapped and already assigned to Dominick Cruz, but it just doesn’t feel right giving him the award, as he once again tore his ACL. This is something of a disqualification as he is on the shelf again.
So, with a dominant win over the undersized, though huge favorite Alexander Shlemenko and a decision win over Stephan Bonnar, Tito Ortiz wins the award on a technicality.
Honorable Mention: Thiago Alves
When we exclude Flyweight (a division that the UFC only semi-recently adopted), we are at a period now where the rating of a #2 fighter is equal to or greater than 85% of the rating of the #1 fighter in 3 men’s divisions since Fight Matrix came online. We saw this briefly for a 1-week period back in July 2010, but we are currently in the midst of a period that has essentially lasted since mid-June 2014, excluding a short break from mid-August to mid-September where we had some shuffling.
Depending on the outcome, or non-outcome (another Aldo injury) of Aldo/Mendes, the Edgar/Swanson winner could increase this count to 4. Either way, the 3 above will probably hold in the list for quite a bit.
The real question is… is this good, or bad?
Last weekend, in the co-main event of the UFC Fight Night 51 in Brazil, lightweight competitor Gleison Tibau scored a split decision victory over [#41] Piotr Hallman. This was not a highly anticipated or hyped fight; a contest between two middle-of-the-road lightweights both ranked outside of Top 25 in their division (the win propelled Tibau from #27 up to #22, while Hallman’s ranking was not affected). What was most notable about this fight is that it marked Tibau’s 23rd UFC bout, and his 15th win in the Octagon. This puts Tibau in a tie for the fourth place for both most wins and most bouts in the UFC history.
To put things in perspective, the record for most wins in UFC is currently held by Georges St. Pierre (19), followed by Matt Hughes (18). The third place is shared by Anderson Silva, Chuck Liddell, and Randy Couture, all with 16 wins a piece. Gleison is tied for #4 with Tito Ortiz, Josh Koscheck, and Michael Bisping. In the most bouts category, Tito Ortiz (27) holds the lead, followed by Matt Hughes (25) and Randy Couture (24). Tibau shares the fourth place with Chuck Liddell, BJ Penn, Frank Mir, and Josh Koscheck.
Take another look at these names. All except for Koscheck, Bisping, and Tibau are former UFC champions and legends of the sport. In fact, they have a combined record of 61-26-1 in UFC title fights! Even Josh Koscheck has had a shot at UFC gold, and Michael Bisping had several “top contender” bouts, though he fell short each time. Tibau on the other hand has never had a title shot or even a #1 contender bout. He was never ranked in the Top 10 of any weight class, coming closest at #12 after his 3-fight win streak in 2011. I certainly would have never expected the kid who got plastered by Nick Diaz in his UFC debut (as a welterweight), to ever be mentioned in the same sentence with the all-time greats, in any context.
What’s more is that at 31, Gleison is not showing any signs of slowing down. After dropping down to lightweight in his second UFC bout, he has been steadily chugging along for eight years, fighting on average 2.75 times a year, and winning around 68% of these fights – or 1.875 fights a year. If he continues at this rate for another two years, by the end of 2016 he should be tied for the top spot in both the total number of UFC fights and total wins, or may even hold the record in both categories. The only active fighters who may give him a run for the total number of fights are Frank Mir and Josh Koscheck – both on extended losing streaks and the verge of retirement. In the wins column, there is Michael Bisping – but at 35 he too is four years older than Tibau, and is likely past his peak judging by his recent fights. There is a very real possibility that Tibau may soon hold both records. He is also at #7 for the most total fight time in the UFC. The only currently active fighters on the roster with more minutes clocked in the Octagon are Frankie Edgar and Diego Sanchez.
| Division | Recorded | Estimated | Estimated Diff from 12/11 |
Percent of Total |
Percent in 12/11 |
Net Proportional Change from 12/11 |
| Heavyweight | 623 | 825 | -50 | 6.9% | 8.3% | -16.9% |
| Light Heavyweight | 607 | 805 | -120 | 6.7% | 8.8% | -23.3% |
| Middleweight | 1151 | 1525 | -25 | 12.7% | 14.7% | -13.2% |
| Welterweight | 1653 | 2190 | +40 | 18.3% | 20.4% | -10.1% |
| Lightweight | 1826 | 2415 | +115 | 20.2% | 21.8% | -7.4% |
| Featherweight | 1577 | 2085 | +565 | 17.4% | 14.4% | +21.0% |
| Bantamweight | 1030 | 1365 | +415 | 11.4% | 9.0% | +26.7% |
| Fly+Straw | 578 | 765 | +475 | 6.4% | 2.7% | +132.6% |
– Male Only
Since the last post approximately 2.5 years ago, the “estimated” count of all active fighters over the “starter” rating has increased from 10,560 to 11,975 (+13.4%). Remember, these counts are ignoring active fighters of the “bottom feeder” variety — i.e. fighters who haven’t proven themselves to be any better than the average debuting fighter.
Divisionally, there are massive changes from 2.5 years ago. The net proportional change looks at the difference in the division pool, after taking into account that the overall size of the fighter pool increased as shown in the previous statement. Although Lightweight added 115 fighters, the increase in overall fighter pool suggests the division is still not as deep as it was in comparison to the entire sport.
Also in December 2011, I deduced that the average fighter weighed in at about 169 pounds. Now, it seems to be about 163 pounds.
| Division | Top 10 | #11-50 | Outside Top 50 |
Unranked Active |
| Heavyweight | 34.5 | 32.1 | 33.0 | 33.5 |
| Light Heavyweight | 32.9 | 33.0 | 30.8 | 31.4 |
| Middleweight | 34.0 | 30.6 | 30.4 | 30.3 |
| Welterweight | 31.1 | 31.6 | 30.0 | 29.2 |
| Lightweight | 29.7 | 29.4 | 29.7 | 28.8 |
| Featherweight | 28.9 | 30.0 | 28.4 | 28.4 |
| Bantamweight | 31.4 | 28.9 | 28.4 | 27.5 |
| Flyweight | 29.6 | 28.6 | 29.0 | 27.6 |
| Strawweight | 32.6 | N/A | N/A | 30.4 |
The above table shows the average age for fighters in the category spread as of May 14, 2014. Only male fighters with known birthdays were considered. The trend supports some “common knowledge” in that.
Does it support the: “Age isn’t as much of a factor in the heavier divisions as it is in the lighter divisions” thought? I’m not sure. If this was the case, I’d expect higher ranked fighters to be younger than their unranked counterparts. But their are two issues with this — it takes accomplishments to gain a higher ranking which takes time AND an older fighter is more likely to retire or change divisions.
We see a little bit of noise at Feather and Bantam, likely because the UFC recently opened these up and some of the older heads at divisions above have trickled down. Strawweight appears to an outlier, but I suspect this division is a last ditch effort for some older Asian Flyweights to extend their careers as it is such a terribly weak division.
A follow-up to a previous post on the Welterweight All-Time Picture.
Zoom in on the Fitch ceiling and below.
First, some general info:
With another loss, I couldn’t help but think that Melvin Guillard is one of the most inconsistent long-time fringe contenders that I can recall. Does this mean he’s inconsistently good or consistently good? After all, he keeps on keeping on, continually reaching a status of top-level journeyman after losing.
Using the Generated Historical Rankings as analytical fuel, it turns out that Melvin Guillard is 1 of only 10 fighters to have at least 25 quarterly rankings in the Lightweight division, with none of them in the Top 5 or below the Top 150 and an average ranking equal or better than #50.
We have declared (at least for our historical purposes) that Renan Barao vs. Urijah Faber II will continue the Bantamweight Championship lineage.
Although they fought before, we did not believe (via our rankings) that it was definitively the best match-up possible in the division, whereas now, it most definitely is. With Cruz out of the picture (again) and having relinquished the only organizational championship that matters, it only seems accurate that the winner of this fight would become the new “lineal” champion.
