UFC 121: How they stack up

Main Card:

FightMatrix/UFC Heavyweight Championship
[#1] Brock Lesnar vs. [#4] Cain Velasquez

JCS Prediction: Lesnar is on pace to crack our Top 10 Heavyweights of All-Time in a few years and I don’t expect his ascent to stop here.  However, I do think this one will take a little longer than the oddsmakers think and take both men into the championship rounds for the first time.  Lesnar TKO 4

Oleg’s Prediction: I have a very hard time picking a winner in this fight.  If you put a gun to my head, I would go with Lesnar – the size advantage will be too much for Velasquez to deal with. Lesnar TKO 2

Welterweight
[#2 MW] Jake Shields vs. [#8] Martin Kampmann

JCS Prediction:  Kampmann has never been submitted, but there is a first time for everything.  Welcome to the big leagues Jake.  Shields SUB 1

Oleg’s Prediction: Just as he did to Carlos Condit, Kampmann will spoil Jake’s UFC debut by outworking Shields on the feet and holding his own on the ground, in an extremely close fight.  Kampmann SD

Welterweight
[#14] Paulo Thiago vs. [#25] Diego Sanchez

JCS Prediction: In a bit of a crossroads fight for both guys, I expect Thiago to send Sanchez back to Lightweight.  Thiago UD

Oleg’s Prediction: Both fighters have had their ups and downs, but I have to agree with JCS and the UFC president Dana White: Sanchez belongs in the lightweight division.    Thiago UD

Light Heavyweight
[#17] Matt Hamill vs. [#22] Tito Ortiz

JCS Prediction: Upset.  I was never THAT sold on Hamill and I think Ortiz has enough skill and guile left to get a close decision win over Hamill.  Ortiz SD

Oleg’s Prediction: This is a horrible matchup for Ortiz.   He won’t be able to take Hamill down, and while Tito’s striking may be technically better than Matt’s, he will be facing a severe disadvantage in the punching power.  All signs point to an protracted mauling by Hamill on the feet, resulting in a one-sided decision. Hamill UD

Heavyweight
[#16] Gabriel Gonzaga vs. [#43] Brendan Schaub

JCS Prediction: Interesting fight.  Gonzaga seems to have had his fair share of abrupt outcomes in the UFC and I don’t think this one will be any different.  I’ve gone back and forth on this fight and I think Gonzaga comes away with the first round finish.  Gonzaga TKO1

Oleg’s Prediction: Gonzaga is the gatekeeper of the UFC’s heavyweight division.  He loses to the elite fighters; everyone else is swiftly dispatched in a brutal fashion.  I haven’t seen anything from Schaub to suggest that he has reached the elite level.  Gonzaga TKO1

 Undercard:

Middleweight
[#75] Ryan Jensen vs. [#88] Court McGee

JCS Prediction: Jensen is a longtime vet that seems to be your middle-of-the-road journeyman.  With youth and newfound confidence on his side, I’m going with the TUF winner.  McGee SUB2

Oleg’s Prediction:  Traditionally, UFC has given Ultimate Fighter winners a highly beatable opponent for their first fight after the TUF finale.  This one is no exception.  McGee UD

Middleweight
[#52] Patrick Cote vs. [#101] Tom Lawlor

JCS Prediction: Both of these guys need a win pretty badly.  I really don’t know which way to go with this one, so I’m taking the stronger overall ledger.  Cote UD

Oleg’s Prediction:  Agreed, this is a must win fight for both.  One of these guys will end up with three consecutive losses and most likely be cut from the roster.  Cote’s cardio should make the difference in the later rounds.  Cote UD

Welterweight
[#42] Mike Guymon vs. [#87] Daniel Roberts

JCS Prediction: Guymon UD

Oleg’s Prediction:  Picking an upset in this one, as I believe 36-year old Guymon is on the tail end of his career.  Roberts SD

Lightweight
[#39] Sam Stout vs. [#154] Paul Taylor

JCS Prediction: Stout UD

Oleg’s Prediction:   This will probably end up a striking-only bout as Stout’s fights often tend to go.   Stout UD

Middleweight
[#114] Dongyi Yang vs. [#128] Chris Camozzi

JCS Prediction: Yang is a bit of an unknown.  I suppose I could do some online video research, but I’ll take a wild stab and say Yang continues his (T)KO streak.  Yang TKO1

Oleg’s Prediction:  Yang is an undefeated prospect who finished every one of his nine opponents to date.  Camozzi did not impress me on the Ultimate Fighter.  Yang TKO1. 

Heavyweight
[#31] Gilbert Yvel vs. [#85] Jon Madsen

JCS Prediction: I’m going against my better judgment on this one and call a one-shot KO by Yvel.   Yvel KO2

Oleg’s Prediction:  Yvel has never defeated a decent wrestler in his career.  This will be his swan song in UFC.  Madsen UD