Another good week for the “safe” bets, another bad one for the others.
As touched upon in the last post, bets like Tim Means and Karolina K were not wise picks due to their advanced ages (from a professional fighting standpoint). Through some analysis, I’ve discovered that the prime fighting age (by win%) is somewhere around 23. Furthermore, Karolina (38) was 16 years older than her opponent. Historically, a 22 year old has beaten a 38 year old, more than 75% of the time. In the case of betting underdogs especially, I will be factoring this in at some degree. Specifics TBD.
Therefore, I’m going to consider ages when deciding on picks going forward. I am working on an automated method for this, but for now, it will be manual.
Bouts considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
Now for the options…
Heavyweight (265) [#15] Derrick Lewis (27-12-0, -153) vs. [#23] Rodrigo Nascimento (12-1-0, +125) Derrick Lewis is the All-Time #25 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Derrick Lewis (1-2-0) 2023-11-04: L vs. [#8HW+] Jailton Almeida (20-3-0) via UD (50-44, 50-44, 50-45) 2023-07-29: W vs. [#24HW+] Marcos Rogerio de Lima (22-9-1) via TKO (Punches) in 0:33 of round 1 2023-02-04: L vs. [#10HW+] Sergey Spivak (16-4-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 3:05 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Rodrigo Nascimento (3-0-0) 2023-11-04: W vs. [#54HW+] Dontale Mayes (11-7-0) via UD () 2023-05-20: W vs. [#25HW+] Ilir Latifi (16-9-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28) 2022-09-17: W vs. [#68LHW] Tanner Boser (21-10-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Derrick Lewis 189, Rodrigo Nascimento 189 Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups. Wins Against Common Opposition: Derrick Lewis leads 2-1 .
Welterweight (170) [#12] Joaquin Buckley (18-6-0, -153) vs. [#46MW] Nursulton Ruziboev (34-8-2, +127)
Last 3 Fights: Joaquin Buckley (3-0-0) 2024-03-30: W vs. [#16WW] Vicente Luque (22-10-1) via TKO (Punches) in 3:17 of round 2 2023-10-07: W vs. [#35WW] Alex Morono (24-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-27) 2023-05-20: W vs. [#79WW] Andre Fialho (16-8-0) via TKO (Head Kick) in 4:15 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Nursulton Ruziboev (3-0-0) 2024-03-30: W vs. [#134MW] Sedriques Dumas (10-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:18 of round 1 2023-07-01: W vs. [#52MW] Brunno Ferreira (11-1-0) via TKO in 1:17 of round 1 2022-04-10: W vs. [*] Paval Masalski (14-17-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:25 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Joaquin Buckley 42, Nursulton Ruziboev 42 Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups. Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition. .
Light Heavyweight (205) [#18] Alonzo Menifield (15-3-1, +172) vs. [#33] Carlos Ulberg (10-1-0, -214)
Last 3 Fights: Alonzo Menifield (2-0-1) 2023-12-16: W vs. [#24LHW] Dustin Jacoby (19-8-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) 2023-07-08: W vs. [#44LHW] Jimmy Crute (12-4-1) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:55 of round 2 2023-02-11: D vs. [#44LHW] Jimmy Crute (12-4-1) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3
Last 3 Fights: Carlos Ulberg (3-0-0) 2023-09-09: W vs. [#53LHW] Da Woon Jung (15-5-1) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:49 of round 3 2023-05-13: W vs. [#79MW] Ihor Potieria (25-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:09 of round 1 2022-11-12: W vs. [*] Nicolae Negumereanu (13-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:44 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alonzo Menifield 147, Carlos Ulberg 245 Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups. Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition. .
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In recent years, the worlds of esports and combat sports have seen a fascinating convergence, particularly in the realm of CS:GO gambling and MMA fighting. The high-stakes nature of crash betting and the adrenaline-fueled excitement of mixed martial arts have drawn a dedicated and passionate fan base. This article explores the intersection of these two seemingly disparate worlds and the unique appeal they hold for thrill-seekers and risk-takers alike.
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Another not so great week… but like every gambler in the red, I just can’t stop.
Since the “smart” parlay is supposed to be smart, I’ve been hesitant to post some of the underdogs the associated query has chosen recently. Why? Because often, the rating systems favor proven older betting underdogs on the tail-end of their career, rather than good, only somewhat proven younger fighters entering their prime. In this regard, the smart parlay is well… kind of dumb and the betters aren’t. Every year of age advantage for the younger fighter results in ~1.2% additional chance of winning. I am considering implementing this somehow, but I don’t always have birth dates for fighters and it further complicates things. We’ll see.
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Introduction
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