Bang for Your Buck: UFC on FOX 14

Good news, fight fans!  This weekend’s UFC on FOX 14, live from Stockholm Sweden, will be broadcast on the Fox network (as if that wasn’t clear from the title…).  That means this event is free – free as in free beer, no PPV cost, no need to estimate the cable prices or Fight Pass subscription rates.  Any US fan with a TV can watch the main card for absolutely no charge.  What’s even better is that UFC tends to stack the Fox cards, so that they are on par with most numbered PPV events (and better than some).   There are even a couple of interesting fights on the prelims, but more on that later.  For now, lets dive right in and try to figure out how much this card would be worth if it were on PPV instead of Fox.

Main Event:  [#3 LHW] Anthony Johnson vs  [#6 LHW] Alexander Gustafsson 

Worth: $20

Why: Who would have ever thought that in 2015,  Anthony ‘Rumble’ Johnson – the guy who lost to Rich Clementi and Josh Koscheck as a welterweight, and consistently struggled to make weight at 170 and 185 lbs alike – would be fighting in a top contender bout for a crack at Jon Jones’ light heavyweight title?  Of course he would have to get past Alexander Gustafsson first – a tall task against Jones’ toughest opponent to date.  This is an awesome fight, the only thing it’s missing is a title on the line, and that will be up next for the winner.

Co-Main Event:  [#7 LHW] Dan Henderson  vs [#8 MW] Gegard Mousasi

Worth: $5

Why: Many years ago in Japan, this could have been a true super-fight for Pride FC.  Alas, quite a bit of luster has chipped off both opponents since the Pride days.   Today, we have a 44 year old Dan Henderson making a return to the middleweight division in a last-ditch attempt to extend his career after going 1-4 in his last five at 205.  His opponent Gegard Mousasi has also failed to light the UFC on fire, going 2-2 in the Octagon thus far, and has to settle for a fringe top 10 spot instead of the contender status that I’m sure he was hoping to achieve.  The winner of this fight still won’t be anywhere near title shot consideration,  and there is also a very good possibility of this fight going to the judges: most of Henderson’s fights end up being settled on the scorecards unless he can land the big right hand early, and Mousasi has a generally lackadaisical fighting style, content to hang back and look for openings instead of pressuring his opponents.   With all that in mind, I am not super excited for this fight, but I’ll give it $5 based on the ‘name value’ alone.

Fight: [#5 LHW] Phil Davis vs [#9 LHW] Ryan Bader

Worth: $5

Why: Once upon a time, these two were supposed to meet in the Octagon as undefeated prospects, with a title shot on the line.  The fight never materialized due to injuries, and the division moved on while Davis and Bader picked up a few Ls on their respective records and struggled to maintain relevancy.    They now finally get to fight, but it’s difficult to see either man competing for the title in today’s light heavyweight division.  Which makes it a weird stay-busy fight between two highly ranked fighters, neither of whom presents a serious threat to the champion. There is also a very distinct possibility that this match-up between two elite wrestlers with sloppy striking will turn into an ugly kickboxing contest.  Still, it’s a relevant fight at least from the ranking standpoint, and in the shallow 205 talent pool I’ll take what I can get.

Fight: [#51 FW] Akira Corassani vs [#132 FW] Sam Sicilia

Worth: $2.50

Why: This is a completely meaningless fight between two middling featherweights who are on the verge of being cut from UFC.  Both guys are known for an all-out fighting style so it should be a fun scrap regardless.  Good choice to open the main card broadcast with.

Prelims (on Fox Sports 1)

Fight: [#81 LHW] Nikita Krylov vs [NR] Stanislav Nedkov

Worth: $2.50

Why: Nikita Krylov might be the most underrated prospect in the UFC today.  He made it into the big leagues after only a year as a pro, racking up a record of 15-2 by fighting as often as three times in one week.  None of these fights have gone out of the first round – the trend which continued in the UFC, with the lone exception of his loss to Soa Palelei.  He shares the 5th spot in the record for shortest average win time.  Did I mention he’s just 22 years old?  While he only has a .500 record in the UFC so far, going 1-1 as a heavyweight and splitting another pair of fights after dropping down to 205, Krylov is still young enough to develop into a real contender if he patches a few holes in his game.  His opponent Stanislav Nedkov has not fought in nearly two years with an injury, and failed to impress in his short UFC stint prior.  Here’s hoping that the streak of 1-round fights continues, and that Krylov comes out on the better end of it.

Prelims (on UFC Fight Pass)

Fight: [#18 HW] Konstantin Erokhin vs [#135 HW] Viktor Pesta

Worth: $2.50

Why: Did the UFC just sign an actual top 20 ranked HW prospect?  OK, maybe I should curb my enthusiasm… at 33, Erokhin may be a bit too old to call a prospect, and at 5’11” he’s on the smallish side for a heavyweight.  Still, in the division where power can be a big trump, this guy has it in spades: 8 of Erokhin’s 9 professional wins ended in a first round knockout, save for the lone decision against UFC veteran Brett Rodgers.  Konstantin has a couple of other ‘name’ wins under his belt, and could have been matched up more evenly; but while I am generally in favor of more competitive matchmaking, in this case it makes sense as the UFC is obviously looking to showcase the Russian’s immense KO power in his debut.  This fight was originally slated for the Fox Sports 1 prelims, but for reasons unknown to me got pushed back to the Fight Pass portion of the card.

Fight Pass disclaimer:  I am not a Fight Pass subscriber.  While I purchase almost every UFC PPV,  the content presented so far on FP doesn’t seem worth the subscription price, especially since any live events broadcast on this network mostly take place abroad, and are often broadcast at odd times in my (US-Eastern) time zone.  Still, there is an occasional fight on here that I find interesting, so I will include it in these ‘Bang for Your Buck’ breakdown… I just won’t be watching them live.  Rather than try to derive a per-hour or per-event cost like I did for Fox Sports 1 events, I will just use the monthly subscription rate of $9.99  (you can also subscribe at a discounted rate of $8.99/month with a 6 months commitment, or $7.99/month for 12 months) and only calculate year-to-date rather than per-event amounts.

Main Card Worth: $32.50
Main Card Cost: $0
Net Value: $32.50

Fox Sports 1 Prelims Worth: $2.50
Fox Sports 1 Prelims Valuation: $2 (see how I came up with this valuation)
Net Value: $0.50

Event Net Value (excluding Fight Pass prelims): $33.00

Fight Pass Prelims Worth: $2.50
Fight Pass Year-to-Date Cost: $9.99
Fight Pass Year-to-Date Value: $-7.49

Fox Sports 1 YTD Worth: $18.50
Fox Sports 1 YTD Valuation: $9 ($2 added for the UFC 182 prelims)
Net Value: $9.50