UFC Title Picture – 2014 Preview

It’s a new year – a good time to reflect on the past, and speculate about what the future may hold.  For the UFC, the new year comes amid some turmoil at the highest levels of the sport: with George St. Pierre vacating his title, Anderson Silva suffering an injury that may be career-ending, and Dominic Cruz finally being stripped of the belt that he has not defended in over two years, we could see a lot of new faces wearing the gold in 2014.  Here’s a preview of what each divisional title picture will look like in the coming year.

Heavyweight

The heavyweight division is cursed.  There is no other way to put it.  Just when it seems like things are looking up for this weight class, it all falls apart again in a mess of injuries, suspensions, contract disputes, etc – there are always some unforeseen circumstances which put a damper on the HW title picture.   Once again, the reigning champion Cain Velasquez is sidelined with a recurrent shoulder injury that will likely keep him out of action for most of year.  As for contenders… we have [#5] Fabricio Werdum and [#6] Travis Browne, both on impressive win streaks, facing off at UFC on Fox 11 in April for a chance to take on the champion – whenever he’s ready to return.  Beyond that, the division looks fairly bleak.  [#2] Junior Dos Santos is 1-2 against the champ; he may still be the next best fighter in the division but will need to win a few fights to earn another title shot.  [#3] Daniel Cormier is slimming down to try his luck at 205 lbs; [#4] Antonio Silva is out for most of the year with a PED suspension, and the remainder of the Top 10 with the exception of Mark Hunt are all coming off losses.  The upcoming fight between [#11] Stipe Miocic and [#14] Gabriel Gonzaga could determine the next contender after Werdum/Browne, though I won’t wager on the HW title being defended more than once in 2014, but if you want to take the risk BitBet.com is a good choice.

Light-heavyweight

With Anderson Silva losing his middleweight title and GSP vacating the welterweight belt, light-heavyweight champion Jon Jones became UFC’s longest-reigning title holder with 6 consecutive defenses.  He will get the opportunity to make it 7 when he faces [#6] Glover Texeira at UFC 172.  But before that, two other high-profile bouts are on deck for the 205lbs division: [#2] Rashad Evans vs [#3 HW] Daniel Cormier, and [#4] Alexander Gustafsson vs [#17] Jimi Manuwa.  The winner of either fight could make a solid case for the next title shot –  or they could face off for the #1 contender eliminator.  Meanwhile, [#3] Phil Davis has quietly amassed a 3-fight winning streak, and though he doesn’t currently have a fight scheduled, Davis has to be mentioned among the potential contenders in the upcoming year.

Middleweight

This is where things start to get really interesting.  About a year ago, a rumored matchup between Chris Weidman and Vitor Belfort failed to materialize.  Instead Chris Weidman went on to beat Anderson Silva twice in 2013, capturing and defending the middleweight title, while Belfort racked up wins against Michael Bisping, Luke Rockhold, and Dan Henderson – all three by head kick KO.  Weidman and Belfort are now ranked #1 and #2 in the division, and will finally meet later this year (date not yet scheduled) with gold on the line.  With the previous champion [#4] Anderson Silva out for most of the year (if not permanently), there are a few fresh faces waiting to challenge the winner of Weidman/Belfort.  [#3] Lyoto Machida vs [#10 LHW] Gegard Mousasi and [#5] Rolando Souza vs [#7] Francis Carmont are the matchups most likely to produce the next middleweight contender.  A few other names in the proverbial mix include [#6] Luke Rockhold, [#8] Michael Bisping, [#13] Tim Kennedy, [#14] Thales Leites, [#18] Brad Tavares, and [#20] Yoel Romero Palacio – all of them are coming off big wins and could find themselves in the title picture under the right circumstances.

Welterweight

George St.Pierres’s hiatus from the sport left the welterweight division wide open.  While [#1] Johnny Hendricks and [#2] Robbie Lawler will face off at UFC 171 for the vacant title, a number of fighters will be impatiently waiting for the outcome and an opportunity for a shot at the title.  [#5] Jake Shields and [#9] Hector Lombard will meet on the undercard of Hendricks-Lawler, with the winner likely getting the contender nod.  Looking beyond those two bouts, [#2] Carlos Condit, [#4] Rory MacDonald, [#10] Matt Brown, [#11] Dong Hyun Kim, [#11] Tyrone Woodley, and [#12] Tarec Saffedine will also be looking to make a big impact in 2014.

Lightweight

The lightweight belt changed hands once in 2013, when [#1] Anthony Pettis ended [#2] Benson Henderson’s reign with a first-round armbar submission.  [#4] TJ Grant has been slated for a title shot since his victory over Gray Maynard in May, but a concussion suffered in training kept Grant on the sidelines.  Pettis was initially scheduled to make his title defense against [#7] Josh Thomson, but also suffered a training injury and was forced to pull out of the bout, resulting in Thomson facing Henderson in a bout that will potentially determine the next contender.  Several other lightweights have recently attempted to throw their names into the hat, including [#3] Gilbert Melendez, [#7] Rafael dos Anjos, [#8] Khabib Nurmagomedov, and [#10] Nate Diaz.  Though the undefeated Nurmagomedov does not currently have a fight scheduled, he is my personal pick to pull ahead of the pack in the coming year.

Featherweight

[#1] Jose Aldo managed to hold on to his title, defending it twice in 2013, against [#3] Frankie Edgar and [#23] Chang Sung Jung.  A superfight between Aldo and Anthony Pettis was rumored but never materialized.  Now, Jose will take on [#7] Ricardo Lamas at UFC 169.  The title picture gets a bit murky after that, as Aldo already defeated [#2] Chad Mendes and [#3] Cub Swanson in addition to Edgar.  Nonetheless, Swanson and Mendes are both on 5-fight winning streaks, so it makes sense for them to fight for an opportunity at another crack at the champion (Mendes holds a decision win over Swanson back in 2010 in WEC, but that now seems like ancient history).  Other featherweights worth mentioning are [#6] Denis Siver, who has had somewhat of a career resurgence after dropping down from 155 lbs but still struggles to put together a solid streak, and [#13] Dustin Poirier who has looked much improved in the past year with back-to-back victories over Diego Brandao and Erik Koch.

Bantamweight

Dominic Cruz has been haunting the bantamweight division like a ghost, inactive for over two years due to a knee injury but still holding on to the title, at least in the name.  Meanwhile [#1] Renan Barao has been toiling away, defeating [#2] Urijah Faber for the interim championship then successfully defending it against [#10] Michael MacDonald and [#11] Eddie Wineland.  Cruz and Barao were scheduled to finally meet at UFC 169 – until Cruz suffered yet another injury and was finally stripped of the belt.  Now, Barao will once again collide with Faber, who seems to be UFC’s go-to guy when they need a title challenger on short notice.  While Faber racked up four impressive wins since losing a unanimous decision to Barao, I expect the rematch to have a similar outcome to the first fight.  Should Cruz actually decide to return to action sometime this year, he is still likely to get the next shot at Barao/Faber winner.  If not, [#5] Rafael Assuncao or [#6] Takeya Mizugaki could offer the next challenge.

Flyweight

Demetrious ‘Mighty Mouse’ Johnson has ruled the 125-lbs weight class with an iron fist ever since UFC introduced the division in 2012.  Last year, Johnson defended his title three times, scoring a unanimous decision over [#5] John Dodson, a submission over [#7] John Moraga, and a first-round knockout over [#2] Joseph Benavidez.  The trifecta of wins earned Johnson the FightMatrix.com Fighter of the Year award for 2013, and addressed the complaints over his perceived inability to finish fights.  Johnson’s next challenger will most likely be the winner of an upcoming bout between [#3] Josh Sampo and [#4] Zach Makovsky.  Look for Dodson and [#6] Ian McCall to vie for another shot at the big time, along with new faces like [#8] Louis Smolka, [#9] Ali Bagautinov, and [#10] John Lineker.

Women’s Bantamweight

The UFC first introduced WMMA to its audience in 2013, fueled by the rise of the Olympic judo medalist [#1] Ronda Rousey.  Undefeated in 8 professional bouts (all wins coming via armbar submission), Rousey has dispatched [#11] Liz Carmouche and [#9] Miesha Tate in her two Octagon appearances, and is slated to take on the fellow Olympian and also undefeated [#4] Sara McMann at UFC 170.  On the same card, [#2] Alexis Davis will meet [#5] Jessica Eye in an apparent title eliminator.  Beyond that it’s difficult to predict who will emerge as a challenger in the still very young division.

Rousey’s success and popularity prompted UFC to add women’s strawweight (115 lbs) division into the mix in 2014.  A champion will be crowned among the 16 women cast to participate in The Ultimate Fighter 20, airing this fall.  It’s too early to make any predictions for this division; all-in-all 2014 should be an interesting and hopefully exciting year for UFC fans.