The Argument for or against Cruiserweight: Revisited

On April 1st, I made the initial blog post: Click Here For That

In summary, we started tracking weigh-in weights, and I wanted to see if the heavier fighters won more often than lighter fighters.  Using the same ideals as before, with a much larger data set:

• In 506 non-draw official fights where both fighters weighed in at different weights, but above 210 (our Light Heavyweight limit), 259 were won by the lighter fighter, and 247 won by the heavier fighter (48.9%).
• When you allow for mismatches and include matches in which only one fighter had to weigh above 210, the total tally increases to 642 and the gap widens, with the heavier fighter only winning 302 (47.0%).
• For the record, across the board, the heavier fighter has won 52.4% of the time.

The results are nearly identical as before, though the heavier fighter gained ground in all three statistics.  There are a few possibilities to explain this and it could be a combination:

• The data set still isn’t large enough.
• Heavyweight fighters depend more on size than skill.
• Weight differences are a bigger issue for smaller fighters.

I decided to take this one step further:

Inconsistent results, but the 57.4% advantage at 2.5-5lb is statistically relevant.  The above table proves one thing.  Weight advantages do matter, but there is a tipping point.  Too much weight can leave a fighter vulnerable.  Though, you cannot exclude the possibility of smart matchmaking.

OK, the last exercise (sans the top two differences, not enough data).  Same table, but excluding Heavyweight matches:

Interestingly enough, the 2.5-4.9lb difference has the largest success for the heavier fighter AGAIN.

One last thing. When fighters weighing 211-230lb (conceivably those who may move down or into a 220ish division), fight against fighters 235lb+ (conceivably those who would stay at Heavyweight), the heavier fighter prevailed 61-59 — not significant.

So what did we learn?

• Even very small weight advantages matter, but it is not a progressive increase.  It actually appears to level off just after 5 pounds.
• When a guy outweighs another guy by more than 50 pounds, think about betting on the smaller man.

In short, it doesn’t appear that a Cruiserweight division is needed.