The Ultimate Fighter 16, Episode 6 Recap
In Episode 6, Team Nelson scores another upset as Colton Smith takes a majority decision over Eddy Ellis. Once again, Dana White is not happy with the judges’ scores, and feels the fight should have gone to the third round.
The current win tally is Team Carwin 3, Team Nelson 2. Looks like more wacky matchmaking is ahead for Team Nelson in the next episode, meaning they will likely not keep control of match-ups for long.
Here’s who remains:
Featured Upcoming Bouts (Outside of UFC)
| Saturday, August 22nd 2026: PFL Tampa: Cyborg vs. Vieira | |||
 [#1 W145] Cristiane Justino | [#4 W135] Ketlen Vieira | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 12/13/2025 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#2 W145] Sara Collins Last 5: W W W W W | Last Fight Date: 5/16/2026 [UFC] Last Opponent: [#10 W135] Jacqueline Cavalcanti Last 5: W L W L W | ||
| Thursday, September 10th 2026: Super RIZIN 5: Naniwa No Chou Fukkatsu Matsuri | |||
 [#5 FW] A.J. McKee |  [#6 FW] Rajabali Shaidullaev | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 6/27/2026 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#20 FW] Salamat Isbulaev Last 5: W L W W W | Last Fight Date: 4/12/2026 [Rizin Fighting Federation] Last Opponent: [#249 FW] Yuta Kubo Last 5: W W W W W | ||
| Thursday, September 10th 2026: Super RIZIN 5: Naniwa No Chou Fukkatsu Matsuri | |||
 [#1 W105] Natalia Kuziutina |  [#16 W105] Rena Kubota | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 4/12/2026 [Rizin Fighting Federation] Last Opponent: [#9 W105] Ayaka Hamasaki Last 5: W W W W W | Last Fight Date: 12/31/2025 [Rizin Fighting Federation] Last Opponent: [#2 W105] Seika Izawa Last 5: W L W W L | ||
Featured Fighters
| [#1 WW] | Islam Makhachev | [#5 WW] |  Ian Garry | |
| [NR] | Khabib Nurmagomedov | [#29 WW] | Myktybek Orolbai | |
| [#2 LW] |  Ilia Topuria | [#2 W115] | Mackenzie Dern | |
| [#25 WW] | Neil Magny | [#1 FW] |  Alexander Volkanovski | |
| [#161 WW] | Conor McGregor | [#178 WW] |  Namo Fazil |
UFC 153 / Odds vs. Ratings
If you’ve been following recent updates, most notably those associated with the Upcoming Events page, you already know that we now display a meta-odds feature — average odds from about a dozen sports books.
I thought it would be interesting to compare results of UFC 152 and how we stacked up versus the gamblers. We ended up doing pretty good , though this is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds. Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary rating that is primarily focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation. Either way, both systems have their place in determining who to expect to win the fight.
Back again, to see if we could repeat the success with UFC 153… and here we go.
Note: Moraes/Forte and Marcello/Madadi are excluded as at least one fighter in each was unranked/inactive.
Ratings vs. Gamblers Scoreboard
| Fight | Odds Favorite | Ratings Favorite | “Who won” |
| Silva vs. Bonnar | Silva (-1005 / Epic) | Silva (9.4x^ / Ungodly) | Tie |
| Nogueira vs. Herman | Nogueira (-241 / Moderate) | Nogueira (3.4x / Massive) | Ratings |
| Teixeiravs. Maldonado | Teixeira (-492 / Large) | Teixeira (3.1x / Very Large) | Tie |
| Fitch vs. Silva | Silva (-185 / Small) | Fitch (1.61x / Moderate) | Ratings |
| Davis vs. Prado | Davis (-383 / Large) | Davis (10.46x / Ungodly) | Ratings |
| Maia vs. Story | Maia (-124 / Pick’Em) | Maia (2.09x / Large) | Ratings |
| Bezerra vs. Sicilia | Bezerra (-234 / Moderate) | Bezerra (1.08x / Pick’Em) | Gamblers |
| Tibau vs. Trinaldo | Tibau (-135 / Very Small) | Tibau (1.83x / Moderate)^ | Tie |
| Brandao vs. Gambino | Brandao (-247 / Moderate) | Brandao (1.34x / Very Small) | Gamblers |
| Camozzi vs. Cane | Cane (-150 / Very Small) | Camozzi (1.17x^ / Pick’Em) | Ratings |
^ – Pre-fight divisional difference was not factored into rating difference.
The Ultimate Fighter 16, Episode 5 Recap
In Episode 5, Team Carwin widens the lead as Igor Araujo takes a controversial majority decision over Nick Herron-Webb, in a close fight which Dana White claimed should have gone to the third round.
The current win tally is Team Carwin 3, Team Nelson 1.
Here’s who remains:
Community Adjustment: Update
Just over a year ago, we rolled out a community adjustment and posted a blog entry about it.
Although the adjustment was helping, the problem is actually getting worse at a faster rate than before. It’s also now spreading into the female ranks.
As such, we will be rolling an adjustment out every six months and upon the next update, will roll out a retroactive adjustment to the Japanese community effective 7/1/2012.
FightMatrix Program: UFC 153 (10-13-2012)
Light Heavyweight (205)
[#1MW/#2DD] Anderson Silva (32-4-0) vs. [#26] Stephan Bonnar (15-7-0)
Anderson Silva is the All-Time #1 ranked Absolute fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Anderson Silva (3-0-0)
2012-07-07: W vs. [#2MW] Chael Sonnen (27-12-1) via TKO (Knee to the Body and Punches) in 1:55 of round 2
2011-08-27: W vs. [#16MW] Yushin Okami (27-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:04 of round 2
2011-02-05: W vs. [#5MW] Vitor Belfort (21-10-0) via KO (Front Kick and Punches) in 3:25 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Stephan Bonnar (3-0-0)
2011-11-19: W vs. [#68LHW] Kyle Kingsbury (11-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-25, 30-27)
2010-12-04: W vs. [#51LHW] Igor Pokrajac (25-9-0) via UD (29-26, 29-26, 29-26)
2010-07-03: W vs. [#65LHW] Krzysztof Soszynski (26-12-1) via TKO (Punches) in 3:08 of round 2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Anderson Silva 98, Stephan Bonnar 329
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Anderson Silva leads 2-1
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#21] Glover Teixeira (17-2-0) vs. [#96] Fabio Maldonado (18-5-0)
Last 3 Fights: Glover Teixeira (3-0-0)
2012-05-26: W vs. [#68LHW] Kyle Kingsbury (11-5-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 1:53 of round 1
2011-11-27: W vs. [#175HW+] Ricco Rodriguez (48-18-0) via Submission (Punches) in 1:58 of round 1
2011-08-25: W vs. [#78LHW] Marvin Eastman (18-14-1) via KO (Punch) in 4:00 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Fabio Maldonado (1-2-0)
2012-05-15: L vs. [#51LHW] Igor Pokrajac (25-9-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2011-06-04: L vs. [#68LHW] Kyle Kingsbury (11-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2010-10-16: W vs. [#107LHW] James McSweeney (10-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:48 of round 3
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Glover Teixeira 140, Fabio Maldonado 151
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Glover Teixeira leads 1-0
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Heavyweight (265)
[#8] Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (33-7-1) vs. [#49] Dave Herman (21-4-0)
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira is the All-Time #2 ranked Heavyweight and #5 ranked Absolute fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (1-2-0)
2011-12-10: L vs. [#6HW+] Frank Mir (16-6-0) via Technical Submission (Kimura) in 3:38 of round 1
2011-08-27: W vs. [#23HW+] Brendan Schaub (8-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:09 of round 1
2010-02-20: L vs. [#2HW+/#7DD] Cain Velasquez (10-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:20 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Dave Herman (1-2-0)
2012-05-26: L vs. [#12HW+] Roy Nelson (17-7-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:51 of round 1
2012-02-15: L vs. [#10HW+] Stefan Struve (25-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:52 of round 2
2011-06-11: W vs. [#371HW+] John Olav Einemo (6-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:19 of round 2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira 308, Dave Herman 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Crazy Fight Alert: Just in case you missed it…
This past weekend at SUPER Heavyweight…
[#325] Dave Bautista (1-0-0) W-TKO(1) [#498] Vince Lucero (22-23-1)
That’s right… former multiple time WWE Champion Dave “Batista” Bautista is now fighting in pro MMA. Even though he supposedly cut some muscle, he still weighed in at 265.5 lbs. Lucero on the other hand, was a not so solid, 300 lbs.
You can watch the fight video on YouTube.
The Ultimate Fighter 16, Episode 4 Recap
In Episode 4, Coach Nelson employed a bizzare approach to matchmaking, having his fighters draw straws to determine who gets to fight this week. Julian Lane drew the short straw and chose Bristol Marunde as his opponent. The results were disastrous, with tentative Lane losing an unanimous decision in an uneventful two-rounder. Team Carwin regains the lead as well the control of matchmaking.
The current win tally is Team Carwin 2, Team Nelson 1.
Here’s who remains:
FightMatrix Program: UFC on FX 5 (10-05-2012)
Heavyweight (265)
[#7] Antonio Silva (16-4-0) vs. [#13] Travis Browne (13-0-1)
Last 3 Fights: Antonio Silva (1-2-0)
2012-05-26: L vs. [#2HW+/#7DD] Cain Velasquez (10-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:36 of round 1
2011-09-10: L vs. [#4HW+] Daniel Cormier (10-0-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:56 of round 1
2011-02-12: W vs. [*] Fedor Emelianenko (34-4-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Travis Browne (3-0-0)
2012-04-21: W vs. [#50HW+] Chad Griggs (11-2-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 2:29 of round 1
2011-09-24: W vs. [#95HW+] Rob Broughton (15-7-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2011-05-28: W vs. [#10HW+] Stefan Struve (25-5-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:11 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Antonio Silva 132, Travis Browne 167
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#6] Jake Ellenberger (27-6-0) vs. [#16] Jay Hieron (23-5-0)
Jake Ellenberger is the All-Time #17 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Jake Ellenberger (2-1-0)
2012-06-01: L vs. [#1WW] Martin Kampmann (20-5-0) via TKO (Knee) in 1:40 of round 2
2012-02-15: W vs. [#14WW] Diego Sanchez (23-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-09-17: W vs. [#7MW] Jake Shields (28-6-1) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 0:53 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Jay Hieron (2-1-0)
2012-07-13: W vs. [#157WW] Romario Manoel da Silva (22-10-1) via Technical Submission (Brabo Choke) in 2:04 of round 2
2011-10-29: L vs. [#10WW] Ben Askren (10-0-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)
2011-05-07: W vs. [#11LW] Rick Hawn (14-1-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jake Ellenberger 126, Jay Hieron 84
Previous Match-up Record: Jay Hieron leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Jay Hieron leads 2-1
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Flyweight (125)
[#6] Jussier da Silva (14-1-0) vs. [#8] John Dodson (13-5-0)
Jussier da Silva is the All-Time #4 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Jussier da Silva (3-0-0)
2012-06-29: W vs. [#164FLY] Sidney Oliveira (5-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:45 of round 1
2012-03-18: W vs. [NA] Martin Coria (1-3-1) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 2:11 of round 3
2011-12-15: W vs. [#276FLY] Rodrigo Favacho dos Santo (8-2-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:52 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: John Dodson (3-0-0)
2012-05-05: W vs. [#27FLY] Tim Elliott (8-3-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-12-03: W vs. [#47BW] TJ Dillashaw (6-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:54 of round 1
2010-12-11: W vs. [#12FLY] John Moraga (11-1-0) via UD ()
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jussier da Silva 98, John Dodson 153
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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The Ultimate Fighter 16, Episode 3 Recap
In Episode 3, Team Nelson tied the score with a huge upset win, as Nelson’s second-to-last pick Joey ‘Boom Boom’ Rivera outworked Sam Alvey, Carwin’s top pick and the overall top rank of the season. Rivera earned a majority decision after two rounds, with the scores of 20-18, 20-18, 19-19.
The current win tally is Team Carwin 1, Team Nelson 1.
All rankings are approximate as-of Episode 2 airing.
[#71 MW] Sam Alvey [Team Carwin]
Episode 1: defeated [#149 WW] Leo Kuntz by TKO
Episode 3: lost to [#441 WW] Joey Rivera by majority decision
[#72 MW] Bristol Marunde [Team Carwin]
Episode 1: defeated [#174 MW] George Lockhart by submission
[#129 WW] Eddy Ellis [Team Carwin]
Episode 1: defeated [NR] David Michaud by submission
[#142 WW] Igor Araujo [Team Carwin]
Episode 1: defeated [#300 MW] Cortez Coleman by submission
[#147 WW] Nick Herron-Webb [Team Nelson]
Episode 1: defeated [#133 MW] Tim Ruberg by submission
[#215 WW] James Chaney [Team Carwin]
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Jerel Clark by submission
[#164 LW] Mike Ricci [Team Carwin]
Episode 1: defeated [#83 MW] Jason South by TKO
[#292 WW] Cameron Diffley [Team Nelson]
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Zane Kamaka by submission
Episode 2: lost to [#327 MW] Neil Magny by unanimous decision
[#327 MW] Neil Magny [Team Carwin]
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Frank Camacho by unanimous decision
Episode 2: defeated [#292 WW] Cameron Diffley by unanimous decision
[#441 WW] Joey Rivera [Team Nelson]
Episode 1: defeated [#386 LW] Saad Awad by majority decision
Episode 3: defeated [#71 MW] Sam Alvey by majority decision
[#489 WW] Mike Hill [Team Nelson]
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Lev Magen by TKO
[#496 WW] John Manley [Team Nelson]
Episode 1: defeated [#186 WW] Ricky Legere Jr by unanimous decision
[#460 LW] Julian Lane [Team Nelson]
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Diego Bautista by unanimous decision
[NR] Dom Waters [Team Nelson]
Episode 1: defeated [#132 WW] Kevin Nowaczyk by TKO
[NR] Colton Smith [Team Nelson]
Episode 1: defeated [#325 MW] Jesse Barrett by unanimous decision
[NR] Matt Secor [Team Carwin]
Episode 1: defeated [#304 WW] Max Griffin by submission
FightMatrix Program: UFC on Fuel TV 5 (09-29-2012)
Heavyweight (265)
[#11] Stefan Struve (24-5-0, 251.0lb) vs. [#16] Stipe Miocic (9-0-0, 239.0lb)
Last 3 Fights: Stefan Struve (3-0-0)
2012-05-26: W vs. [#33HW+] Lavar Johnson (17-6-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 1:05 of round 1
2012-02-15: W vs. [#47HW+] Dave Herman (21-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:52 of round 2
2011-10-01: W vs. [#53HW+] Pat Barry (7-5-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 3:22 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Stipe Miocic (3-0-0)
2012-05-26: W vs. [#68HW+] Shane del Rosario (11-1-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 3:14 of round 2
2012-02-15: W vs. [#59HW+] Philip De Fries (9-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:43 of round 1
2011-10-08: W vs. [#64LHW] Joey Beltran (14-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Stefan Struve 126, Stipe Miocic 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#48] Dan Hardy (24-10-0, 169.0lb) vs. [#62] Amir Sadollah (6-3-0, 169.0lb)
Dan Hardy is the All-Time #25 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Dan Hardy (1-2-0)
2012-05-26: W vs. [#104WW] Duane Ludwig (21-13-0) via KO (Punch and Elbows) in 3:51 of round 1
2011-08-14: L vs. [*] Chris Lytle (31-18-5) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:16 of round 3
2011-03-26: L vs. [#18LHW] Anthony Johnson (13-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Last 3 Fights: Amir Sadollah (2-1-0)
2012-05-15: W vs. [#89WW] Jorge Lopez (11-3-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2011-08-14: L vs. [#104WW] Duane Ludwig (21-13-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-03-26: W vs. [#136WW] DaMarques Johnson (16-11-0) via Submission (Elbows) in 3:27 of round 2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dan Hardy 126, Amir Sadollah 137
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Dan Hardy leads 1-0
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Bantamweight (135)
[#17] Yves Jabouin (18-7-0, 136.0lb) vs. [#42] Brad Pickett (21-6-0, 135.0lb)
Last 3 Fights: Yves Jabouin (3-0-0)
2012-05-15: W vs. [#72BW] Jeff Hougland (10-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-27)
2011-12-10: W vs. [#126BW] Walel Watson (9-5-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
2011-08-27: W vs. [#18BW] Ian Loveland (16-9-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 27-30)
Last 3 Fights: Brad Pickett (2-1-0)
2012-04-14: W vs. [#213BW] Damacio Page (15-8-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:05 of round 2
2011-11-05: L vs. [#2BW] Renan Barao (29-1-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:09 of round 1
2010-12-16: W vs. [#53BW] Ivan Menjivar (24-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Yves Jabouin 137, Brad Pickett 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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The Ultimate Fighter 16, Episodes 1 & 2 Recaps
I will be honest: I was not planning on doing the usual episode recaps for Season 16 of The Ultimate Fighter. Even after some kind reminders from our readers, I was at best lukewarm to the idea. The reason for this is that I believe the Ultimate Fighter series has ran its course; the format has become quite stale, and after fifteen seasons it went from ‘must watch TV’ for me to being just another show buried on the DVR that I might get to later in the week, if time allows. And if the sagging ratings are any indication, I am not the only UFC viewer who feels this way. After attempting a switch to the ‘TUF Live’ format in Season 15, UFC and FX didn’t find the live production to be cost effective and went back to the same tired format this season. As a result, the viewership is at its lowest point in the existence of the series, failing to break 1 million viewers in the first two episodes. Let’s face it, it’s very difficult for any show to keep its audience for that many seasons. Very few television series remain on air for this long, and I guess ‘TUF’ just doesn’t have the timeless appeal of shows like The Simpsons.
Nevertheless, I decided to take a look at the rankings of the Season 16 cast, and the results surprised me in two ways: first, the overall rankings of fighters who made it into the house were higher than I expected based on other recent seasons, and also there was a large discrepancy in the average ranking of the fighters picked for the two teams. And so, I am now actually curious to see how this tournament will break down. So here we are, a little late with our recap of Epsidose 1 & 2 of The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs Team Nelson – or ‘TUF 16’, for short. Though some of the contestants are ranked in different weight divisions, they are all competing as welterweights on the show.
Keep reading to see how they stack up, with Team Carwin up 1-0 after the first team-vs-team matchup. Better late than never!