MMA Statistics – Page 10

Fight Matrix Program – UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka (06-22-2024)

Posted on June 24, 2024 by Jason

Light Heavyweight Championship (205)
[#1/#4P4P] Alex Pereira (10-2-0, -166) vs. [#4] Jiri Prochazka (30-4-1, +138)
Alex Pereira is the All-Time #20 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.
Jiri Prochazka is the All-Time #25 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Alex Pereira (3-0-0)
2024-04-13: W vs. [#5LHW] Jamahal Hill (13-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:14 of round 1
2023-11-11: W vs. [#4LHW] Jiri Prochazka (30-4-1) via TKO (Elbows) in 4:08 of round 2
2023-07-29: W vs. [#2LHW] Jan Blachowicz (29-10-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Jiri Prochazka (2-1-0)
2024-04-13: W vs. [#27LHW] Aleksandar Rakic (14-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:17 of round 2
2023-11-11: L vs. [#1LHW/#4P4P] Alex Pereira (10-2-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 4:08 of round 2
2022-06-11: W vs. [*] Glover Teixeira (33-9-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:32 of round 5

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Alex Pereira	-166		59.76%
Elo K170	Alex Pereira	2222.62	+94.56	63.28%
Elo Modified	Alex Pereira	2187.33	+76.81	60.88%
Glicko-1	Alex Pereira	2300.85	+78.25	61.08%
WHR	Alex Pereira	2122.78	+64.07	59.12%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alex Pereira 77, Jiri Prochazka 77
Previous Match-up Record: Alex Pereira leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#4] Brian Ortega (16-3-0, +120) vs. [#24] Diego Lopes (24-6-0, -145)
Brian Ortega is the All-Time #11 ranked Featherweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Brian Ortega (1-2-0)
2024-02-24: W vs. [#5FW] Yair Rodriguez (19-5-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 0:58 of round 3
2022-07-16: L vs. [#5FW] Yair Rodriguez (19-5-0) via TKO (Shoulder Injury) in 4:11 of round 1
2021-09-25: L vs. [#2FW/#8DD] Alexander Volkanovski (26-4-0) via UD (50-44, 50-45, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Diego Lopes (3-0-0)
2024-04-13: W vs. [#49FW] Sodiq Yusuff (13-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:29 of round 1
2023-11-11: W vs. [#77FW] Pat Sabatini (18-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:30 of round 1
2023-08-05: W vs. [#330FW] Gavin Tucker (13-3-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 1:38 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Diego Lopes	-145		56.56%
Elo K170	Brian Ortega	2102.06	+255.21	81.29%
Elo Modified	Brian Ortega	2058.70	+186.82	74.56%
Glicko-1	Brian Ortega	2118.28	+161.12	71.66%
WHR	Brian Ortega	1971.85	+131.61	68.08%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brian Ortega 126, Diego Lopes 77
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#16MW] Roman Dolidze (12-3-0, -145) vs. [#14] Anthony Smith (38-19-0, +119)
Anthony Smith is the All-Time #31 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Roman Dolidze (1-2-0)
2024-02-03: L vs. [#6MW] Nassourdine Imavov (14-4-0) via MD (49-44, 47-47, 48-46)
2023-03-18: L vs. [#9MW] Marvin Vettori (19-7-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2022-12-03: W vs. [#15MW] Jack Hermansson (24-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:06 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Anthony Smith (2-1-0)
2024-05-04: W vs. [#34LHW] Vitor Petrino (11-1-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:00 of round 1
2023-12-09: L vs. [#9LHW] Khalil Rountree (13-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:56 of round 3
2023-08-26: W vs. [#24LHW] Ryan Spann (21-10-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Roman Dolidze	-145		56.44%
Elo K170	Anthony Smith	1874.62	+131.98	68.13%
Elo Modified	Anthony Smith	1858.13	+73.92	60.48%
Glicko-1	Anthony Smith	1898.48	+21.83	53.14%
WHR	Roman Dolidze	1792.14	+37.10	55.32%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Roman Dolidze 147, Anthony Smith 56
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Top UFC Records and Record Holders

Posted on June 19, 2024 by A. J. Riot

The world of the UFC is filled with champions and remarkable fighters who have set impressive records. Champions in the UFC are just a tiny part of the roster. For those interested in reliable bookmakers and valuable betting information, check out RG.ORG. Today, we will talk about the top records in the UFC. Let’s go!

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov (06-22-2024)

Posted on June 17, 2024 by Jason

Middleweight (185)
[#5] Robert Whittaker (25-7-0, -132) vs. [#48] Ikram Aliskerov (15-1-0, +109)
Robert Whittaker is the All-Time #5 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Robert Whittaker (2-1-0)
2024-02-17: W vs. [#10MW] Paulo Costa (14-4-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-07-08: L vs. [#2MW] Dricus Du Plessis (21-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:23 of round 2
2022-09-03: W vs. [#9MW] Marvin Vettori (19-7-1) via UD ()

Last 3 Fights: Ikram Aliskerov (3-0-0)
2023-10-21: W vs. [#143MW] Warlley Alves (14-8-0) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 2:07 of round 1
2023-05-06: W vs. [#103MW] Phil Hawes (12-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:10 of round 1
2022-09-13: W vs. [#133MW] Mario Filipe de Sousa (19-4-1) via Submission (Kimura) in 2:09 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Robert Whittaker	-132		54.31%
Elo K170	Robert Whittaker	2193.81	+395.22	90.68%
Elo Modified	Robert Whittaker	2171.37	+335.76	87.36%
Glicko-1	Robert Whittaker	2235.78	+325.50	86.69%
WHR	Robert Whittaker	1997.91	+119.66	66.57%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Robert Whittaker 126, Ikram Aliskerov 245
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[#3] Sergei Pavlovich (18-2-0, -214) vs. [#5] Alexander Volkov (37-10-0, +176)
Sergei Pavlovich is the All-Time #44 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Alexander Volkov is the All-Time #28 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Sergei Pavlovich (2-1-0)
2023-11-11: L vs. [#2HW+] Tom Aspinall (14-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:09 of round 1
2023-04-22: W vs. [#4HW+] Curtis Blaydes (18-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:08 of round 1
2022-12-03: W vs. [#13HW+] Tai Tuivasa (14-7-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:54 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Alexander Volkov (3-0-0)
2023-09-09: W vs. [#13HW+] Tai Tuivasa (14-7-0) via Submission (Ezekiel Choke) in 4:37 of round 2
2023-03-11: W vs. [#21HW+] Alexander Romanov (17-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:16 of round 1
2022-06-04: W vs. [#11HW+] Jairzinho Rozenstruik (14-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:12 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Sergei Pavlovich	-214		65.29%
Elo K170	Alexander Volkov	2021.69	+19.09	52.75%
Elo Modified	Alexander Volkov	2038.66	+39.48	55.66%
Glicko-1	Alexander Volkov	2135.60	+44.88	56.42%
WHR	Alexander Volkov	1988.36	+16.28	52.34%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sergei Pavlovich 224, Alexander Volkov 287
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Sergei Pavlovich leads 4-3
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Welterweight (170)
[#24] Kelvin Gastelum (18-9-0, -239) vs. [#39] Daniel Rodriguez (17-4-0, +194)

Last 3 Fights: Kelvin Gastelum (1-2-0)
2023-12-02: L vs. [#9WW] Sean Brady (16-1-0) via Submission (Kimura) in 1:43 of round 3
2023-04-08: W vs. [#21MW] Chris Curtis (31-11-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2021-08-21: L vs. [#8MW] Jared Cannonier (17-7-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Daniel Rodriguez (1-2-0)
2023-05-13: L vs. [#10WW] Ian Garry (14-0-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 2:57 of round 1
2022-11-05: L vs. [#19WW] Neil Magny (29-11-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 3:33 of round 3
2022-09-10: W vs. [*] Jingliang Li (19-8-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Kelvin Gastelum	-239		67.45%
Elo K170	Kelvin Gastelum	1859.69	+76.95	60.90%
Elo Modified	Kelvin Gastelum	1865.16	+110.79	65.42%
Glicko-1	Kelvin Gastelum	1912.01	+127.36	67.55%
WHR	Kelvin Gastelum	1767.26	+79.02	61.18%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kelvin Gastelum 203, Daniel Rodriguez 406
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on June 12, 2024 by Jason

Been on a bad streak… but have to (pretend) gamble our way out of it!

Bouts considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

Now for the options…

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira (06-15-2024)

Posted on June 10, 2024 by Jason

Flyweight (125)
[#11] Alex Perez (25-8-0, +162) vs. [#23] Tatsuro Taira (15-0-0, -196)
Alex Perez is the All-Time #33 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Alex Perez (1-2-0)
2024-04-27: W vs. [#17FLY] Matheus Nicolau (19-4-1) via KO (Punch) in 2:16 of round 2
2024-03-02: L vs. [#8FLY] Muhammad Mokaev (12-0-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-07-30: L vs. [#1FLY/#3DD/#3P4P] Alexandre Pantoja (28-5-0) via Submission (Neck Crank) in 1:31 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Tatsuro Taira (3-0-0)
2023-12-09: W vs. [#147FLY] Carlos Hernandez (9-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:55 of round 2
2023-07-08: W vs. [#142FLY] Edgar Chairez (11-5-0) via UD (29-27, 29-27, 29-27)
2023-02-04: W vs. [#84FLY] Jesus Santos Aguilar (10-2-0) via Submission (Triangle Armbar) in 4:20 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Tatsuro Taira	-196		63.43%
Elo K170	Tatsuro Taira	1822.35	+12.85	51.85%
Elo Modified	Tatsuro Taira	1821.80	+35.83	55.14%
Glicko-1	Tatsuro Taira	1874.42	+43.37	56.21%
WHR	Tatsuro Taira	1786.62	+49.95	57.14%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alex Perez 49, Tatsuro Taira 189
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#48] Ikram Aliskerov (15-1-0, -917) vs. [*] Antonio Trocoli (13-3-0, +581)

Last 3 Fights: Ikram Aliskerov (3-0-0)
2023-10-21: W vs. [#144MW] Warlley Alves (14-8-0) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 2:07 of round 1
2023-05-06: W vs. [#103MW] Phil Hawes (12-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:10 of round 1
2022-09-13: W vs. [#134MW] Mario Filipe de Sousa (19-4-1) via Submission (Kimura) in 2:09 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Antonio Trocoli (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2021-11-21: W vs. [*] Reslley Menezes (7-3-0) via SUB in 2:10 of round 1
2021-08-28: W vs. [*] Reslley Menezes (7-3-0) via Technical Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:10 of round 1
2019-07-09: NC vs. [*] Kenneth Bergh (9-1-0)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Ikram Aliskerov	-917		85.99%
Elo K170	Ikram Aliskerov	1798.61	+326.60	86.76%
Elo Modified	Ikram Aliskerov	1835.68	+329.70	86.96%
Glicko-1	Ikram Aliskerov	1910.30	+401.91	91.00%
WHR	Ikram Aliskerov	1877.88	+395.78	90.70%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ikram Aliskerov 238, Antonio Trocoli 937
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#251] Adam Fugitt (9-4-0, -112) vs. [#381] Josh Quinlan (6-2-0, -108)

Last 3 Fights: Adam Fugitt (1-2-0)
2023-06-10: L vs. [#82WW] Mike Malott (10-2-1) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:06 of round 2
2023-02-04: W vs. [#530WW] Yusaku Kinoshita (6-3-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 4:36 of round 1
2022-07-30: L vs. [#23WW] Michael Morales (16-0-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:09 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Josh Quinlan (1-2-0)
2024-02-17: L vs. [#180WW] Danny Barlow (8-0-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:18 of round 3
2023-04-29: L vs. [#125WW] Trey Waters (9-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-08-13: W vs. [*] Jason Witt (19-10-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:09 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Adam Fugitt	-112		50.43%
Elo K170	Adam Fugitt	1432.45	+149.94	70.33%
Elo Modified	Adam Fugitt	1460.37	+114.93	65.96%
Glicko-1	Adam Fugitt	1475.20	+144.52	69.68%
WHR	Adam Fugitt	1463.81	+209.24	76.93%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Adam Fugitt 371, Josh Quinlan 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on June 6, 2024 by Jason

The WHR Win % is now age-adjusted, using a formula driven by previous results.

Bouts considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

Now for the options…

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov (06-08-2024)

Posted on June 3, 2024 by Jason

Middleweight (185)
[#5] Jared Cannonier (17-6-0, +112) vs. [#14] Nassourdine Imavov (13-4-0, -136)
Jared Cannonier is the All-Time #28 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jared Cannonier (2-1-0)
2023-06-17: W vs. [#8MW] Marvin Vettori (19-7-1) via UD (49-45, 49-45, 48-46)
2022-12-17: W vs. [#3MW] Sean Strickland (29-6-0) via SD (49-46, 46-49, 49-46)
2022-07-02: L vs. [#1MW/#10DD] Israel Adesanya (24-3-0) via UD (49-46, 50-45, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Nassourdine Imavov (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2024-02-03: W vs. [#16MW] Roman Dolidze (12-3-0) via MD (49-44, 47-47, 48-46)
2023-06-10: NC vs. [#21MW] Chris Curtis (31-11-0)
2023-01-14: L vs. [#3MW] Sean Strickland (29-6-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Nassourdine Imavov	-136		54.99%
Elo K170	Jared Cannonier	2208.53	+340.23	87.63%
Elo Modified	Jared Cannonier	2134.22	+290.87	84.22%
Glicko-1	Jared Cannonier	2187.74	+309.63	85.60%
WHR	Jared Cannonier	1999.77	+191.96	75.12%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jared Cannonier 357, Nassourdine Imavov 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Jared Cannonier leads 1-0
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#24] Dustin Jacoby (19-8-1, -221) vs. [*] Dominick Reyes (12-4-0, +178)
Dominick Reyes is the All-Time #45 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Dustin Jacoby (1-2-0)
2023-12-16: L vs. [#26LHW] Alonzo Menifield (15-4-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-08-05: W vs. [#40LHW] Kennedy Nzechukwu (12-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:22 of round 1
2023-04-15: L vs. [#22LHW] Azamat Murzakanov (13-0-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Dominick Reyes (0-3-0)
2022-11-12: L vs. [#25LHW] Ryan Spann (21-10-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:20 of round 1
2021-05-01: L vs. [#4LHW] Jiri Prochazka (30-4-1) via KO (Spinning Back Elbow) in 4:29 of round 2
2020-09-26: L vs. [#2LHW] Jan Blachowicz (29-10-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:36 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Dustin Jacoby	-221		65.68%
Elo K170	Dominick Reyes	1765.14	+97.81	63.71%
Elo Modified	Dominick Reyes	1743.59	+27.69	53.98%
Glicko-1	Dustin Jacoby	1791.95	+14.84	52.13%
WHR	Dustin Jacoby	1750.04	+123.29	67.03%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dustin Jacoby 175, Dominick Reyes 574
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[*] Julian Marquez (9-4-0, -114) vs. [#196] Zachary Reese (6-1-0, -108)

Last 3 Fights: Julian Marquez (1-2-0)
2023-03-04: L vs. [#39MW] Marc-Andre Barriault (17-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:12 of round 2
2022-06-18: L vs. [#25MW] Gregory Rodrigues (15-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:18 of round 1
2021-04-10: W vs. [#127HW+] Sam Alvey (34-18-1) via Technical Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:07 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Zachary Reese (2-1-0)
2023-12-02: L vs. [#97MW] Cody Brundage (10-6-0) via KO (Slam and Punches) in 1:49 of round 1
2023-08-22: W vs. [#264MW] Eli Aronov (6-1-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 1:14 of round 1
2023-03-24: W vs. [#1163MW] Tommie Britton (5-12-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:52 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Julian Marquez	-114		50.64%
Elo K170	Julian Marquez	1435.22	+107.37	64.98%
Elo Modified	Julian Marquez	1500.00	+147.85	70.08%
Glicko-1	Julian Marquez	1538.00	+189.23	74.82%
WHR	Julian Marquez	1485.65	+184.61	74.32%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Julian Marquez 462, Zachary Reese 189
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Current & All-Time MMA Rankings Updated (06-02-2024)

Posted on June 2, 2024 by Jason

This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on May 29, 2024 by Jason

Bouts considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

Now for the options…

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier (06-01-2024)

Posted on May 27, 2024 by Jason

Lightweight Championship (155)
[#1/#1DD/#3P4P] Islam Makhachev (25-1-0, -632) vs. [#6] Dustin Poirier (30-8-0, +428)
Islam Makhachev is the All-Time #8 ranked Lightweight and #42 ranked Absolute fighter.
Dustin Poirier is the All-Time #4 ranked Lightweight and #27 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Islam Makhachev (3-0-0)
2023-10-21: W vs. [#2FW/#8DD] Alexander Volkanovski (26-4-0) via KO (Head Kick and Punches) in 3:06 of round 1
2023-02-11: W vs. [#2FW/#8DD] Alexander Volkanovski (26-4-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 48-47)
2022-10-22: W vs. [#3LW] Charles Oliveira (34-10-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 3:16 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Dustin Poirier (2-1-0)
2024-03-09: W vs. [#18LW] Benoit St. Denis (13-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:32 of round 2
2023-07-29: L vs. [#5LW] Justin Gaethje (25-5-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 1:00 of round 2
2022-11-12: W vs. [*] Michael Chandler (23-8-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:00 of round 3

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Islam Makhachev	-632		82.00%
Elo K170	Islam Makhachev	2525.11	+256.29	81.39%
Elo Modified	Islam Makhachev	2453.78	+232.02	79.18%
Glicko-1	Islam Makhachev	2573.50	+268.38	82.42%
WHR	Islam Makhachev	2378.24	+318.86	86.24%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Islam Makhachev 224, Dustin Poirier 84
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Islam Makhachev leads 3-2
.

Middleweight (185)
[#3] Sean Strickland (28-6-0, -221) vs. [#16] Paulo Costa (14-3-0, +180)
Sean Strickland is the All-Time #19 ranked Middleweight fighter.
Paulo Costa is the All-Time #26 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Sean Strickland (2-1-0)
2024-01-20: L vs. [#2MW] Dricus Du Plessis (21-2-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)
2023-09-09: W vs. [#1MW/#10DD] Israel Adesanya (24-3-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2023-07-01: W vs. [#57MW] Abusupiyan Magomedov (26-6-1) via TKO in 4:20 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Paulo Costa (1-2-0)
2024-02-17: L vs. [#6MW] Robert Whittaker (25-7-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-08-20: W vs. [*] Luke Rockhold (16-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-10-23: L vs. [#8MW] Marvin Vettori (19-7-1) via UD (48-46, 48-46, 48-46)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Sean Strickland	-221		65.84%
Elo K170	Sean Strickland	2086.64	+138.31	68.91%
Elo Modified	Sean Strickland	2129.57	+178.51	73.64%
Glicko-1	Sean Strickland	2206.22	+181.22	73.95%
WHR	Sean Strickland	2060.68	+220.28	78.04%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sean Strickland 133, Paulo Costa 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Sean Strickland leads 2-1
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Middleweight (185)
[#17WW] Kevin Holland (25-11-0, -249) vs. [#44] Michal Oleksiejczuk (20-7-0, +198)

Last 3 Fights: Kevin Holland (1-2-0)
2024-03-09: L vs. [#13WW] Michael Page (22-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-09-16: L vs. [#6WW] Jack Della Maddalena (17-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-07-29: W vs. [#45WW] Michael Chiesa (16-7-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 2:39 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Michal Oleksiejczuk (1-2-0)
2024-03-09: L vs. [#19MW] Michel Pereira (32-11-0) via Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:01 of round 1
2023-08-26: W vs. [#75WW] Chidi Njokuani (23-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:16 of round 1
2023-04-29: L vs. [#17MW] Caio Borralho (16-1-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:49 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Kevin Holland	-249		68.01%
Elo K170	Kevin Holland	1836.81	+130.42	67.93%
Elo Modified	Kevin Holland	1874.82	+156.29	71.09%
Glicko-1	Kevin Holland	1957.17	+210.08	77.02%
WHR	Kevin Holland	1837.20	+169.66	72.64%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kevin Holland 84, Michal Oleksiejczuk 84
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on May 16, 2024 by Jason

Two more changes…

Scrapping the “smart” option. There are too many things to consider outside of what we can track with ratings and metrics (which are apparently not smart enough!)
The “safe” option will only include betting favorites. Really, for the same reason as above.

Bouts considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

Now for the options…

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs Murphy (05-18-2024)

Posted on May 13, 2024 by Jason

Featherweight (145)
[#15] Edson Barboza (24-11-0, +132) vs. [#38] Lerone Murphy (13-0-1, -158)

Last 3 Fights: Edson Barboza (2-1-0)
2023-10-14: W vs. [#47FW] Sodiq Yusuff (13-4-0) via UD (48-46, 48-46, 49-46)
2023-04-15: W vs. [#44FW] Billy Quarantillo (18-6-0) via KO (Knee) in 2:37 of round 1
2022-03-05: L vs. [#16FW] Bryce Mitchell (16-2-0) via UD (30-25, 30-26, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Lerone Murphy (3-0-0)
2023-07-22: W vs. [#108FW] Joshua Culibao (12-3-1) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-26)
2023-03-18: W vs. [#116FW] Gabriel Santos (10-2-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-10-30: W vs. [#394LW] Makwan Amirkhani (17-10-0) via KO (Knee) in 0:14 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Lerone Murphy	-158		58.69%
Elo K170	Edson Barboza	1917.98	+29.54	54.24%
Elo Modified	Edson Barboza	1926.08	+99.78	63.98%
Glicko-1	Edson Barboza	1973.01	+127.67	67.59%
WHR	Edson Barboza	1795.98	+1.44	50.21%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Edson Barboza 217, Lerone Murphy 301
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#39] Carlston Harris (19-5-0, +118) vs. [#53] Kalinn Williams (14-3-0, -142)

Last 3 Fights: Carlston Harris (2-1-0)
2023-08-05: W vs. [#59WW] Jeremiah Wells (12-4-1) via Technical Submission (Anaconda Choke) in 1:50 of round 3
2023-03-11: W vs. [#62WW] Jared Gooden (23-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-02-05: L vs. [#5WW] Shavkat Rakhmonov (18-0-0) via KO (Spinning Hook Kick and Punches) in 4:10 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Kalinn Williams (2-1-0)
2023-05-06: W vs. [#168WW] Rolando Bedoya (14-3-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 27-30)
2022-05-07: L vs. [#23WW] Randy Brown (18-5-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)
2021-11-13: W vs. [*] Miguel Baeza (10-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:02 of round 3

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Kalinn Williams	-142		56.12%
Elo K170	Carlston Harris	1886.25	+136.39	68.68%
Elo Modified	Carlston Harris	1884.04	+140.04	69.13%
Glicko-1	Carlston Harris	1937.50	+155.94	71.05%
WHR	Carlston Harris	1943.64	+305.55	85.31%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Carlston Harris 287, Kalinn Williams 378
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Carlston Harris leads 1-0
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Women Strawweight (115)
[#9] Angela Hill (16-13-0, -157) vs. [#29] Luana Pinheiro (11-2-0, +130)

Last 3 Fights: Angela Hill (2-1-0)
2023-11-04: W vs. [#19SW] Denise Gomes (8-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2023-05-20: L vs. [#8SW] Mackenzie Dern (13-5-0) via UD (49-44, 49-44, 49-43)
2022-12-03: W vs. [#21SW] Emily Ducote (13-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Luana Pinheiro (2-1-0)
2023-11-18: L vs. [#14FLY] Amanda Ribas (12-5-0) via TKO (Spinning Wheel Kick and Punches) in 3:53 of round 3
2023-04-08: W vs. [#54SW] Michelle Waterson-Gomez (18-12-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-11-20: W vs. [#49SW] Sam Hughes (8-6-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Angela Hill	-157		58.42%
Elo K170	Angela Hill	1585.39	+110.66	65.41%
Elo Modified	Angela Hill	1637.50	+192.11	75.14%
Glicko-1	Angela Hill	1633.90	+209.18	76.92%
WHR	Angela Hill	1519.59	+153.29	70.73%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Angela Hill 196, Luana Pinheiro 182
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Luana Pinheiro leads 2-0
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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on May 9, 2024 by Jason

Another good week for the “safe” bets, another bad one for the others.

As touched upon in the last post, bets like Tim Means and Karolina K were not wise picks due to their advanced ages (from a professional fighting standpoint). Through some analysis, I’ve discovered that the prime fighting age (by win%) is somewhere around 23. Furthermore, Karolina (38) was 16 years older than her opponent. Historically, a 22 year old has beaten a 38 year old, more than 75% of the time. In the case of betting underdogs especially, I will be factoring this in at some degree. Specifics TBD.

Therefore, I’m going to consider ages when deciding on picks going forward. I am working on an automated method for this, but for now, it will be manual.

Bouts considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

Now for the options…

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs Nascimento (05-11-2024)

Posted on May 6, 2024 by Jason

Heavyweight (265)
[#15] Derrick Lewis (27-12-0, -153) vs. [#23] Rodrigo Nascimento (12-1-0, +125)
Derrick Lewis is the All-Time #25 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Derrick Lewis (1-2-0)
2023-11-04: L vs. [#8HW+] Jailton Almeida (20-3-0) via UD (50-44, 50-44, 50-45)
2023-07-29: W vs. [#24HW+] Marcos Rogerio de Lima (22-9-1) via TKO (Punches) in 0:33 of round 1
2023-02-04: L vs. [#10HW+] Sergey Spivak (16-4-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 3:05 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Rodrigo Nascimento (3-0-0)
2023-11-04: W vs. [#54HW+] Dontale Mayes (11-7-0) via UD ()
2023-05-20: W vs. [#25HW+] Ilir Latifi (16-9-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2022-09-17: W vs. [#68LHW] Tanner Boser (21-10-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Derrick Lewis	-153		57.63%
Elo K170	Derrick Lewis	1764.71	+21.43	53.08%
Elo Modified	Derrick Lewis	1789.57	+85.71	62.09%
Glicko-1	Derrick Lewis	1832.73	+120.95	66.73%
WHR	Derrick Lewis	1707.73	+31.91	54.58%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Derrick Lewis 189, Rodrigo Nascimento 189
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Derrick Lewis leads 2-1
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Welterweight (170)
[#12] Joaquin Buckley (18-6-0, -153) vs. [#46MW] Nursulton Ruziboev (34-8-2, +127)

Last 3 Fights: Joaquin Buckley (3-0-0)
2024-03-30: W vs. [#16WW] Vicente Luque (22-10-1) via TKO (Punches) in 3:17 of round 2
2023-10-07: W vs. [#35WW] Alex Morono (24-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-27)
2023-05-20: W vs. [#79WW] Andre Fialho (16-8-0) via TKO (Head Kick) in 4:15 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Nursulton Ruziboev (3-0-0)
2024-03-30: W vs. [#134MW] Sedriques Dumas (10-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:18 of round 1
2023-07-01: W vs. [#52MW] Brunno Ferreira (11-1-0) via TKO in 1:17 of round 1
2022-04-10: W vs. [*] Paval Masalski (14-17-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:25 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Joaquin Buckley	-153		57.85%
Elo K170	Joaquin Buckley	1963.90	+188.72	74.77%
Elo Modified	Joaquin Buckley	1947.86	+165.85	72.21%
Glicko-1	Joaquin Buckley	2025.23	+142.38	69.42%
WHR	Joaquin Buckley	1813.21	+5.26	50.76%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Joaquin Buckley 42, Nursulton Ruziboev 42
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#18] Alonzo Menifield (15-3-1, +172) vs. [#33] Carlos Ulberg (10-1-0, -214)

Last 3 Fights: Alonzo Menifield (2-0-1)
2023-12-16: W vs. [#24LHW] Dustin Jacoby (19-8-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-07-08: W vs. [#44LHW] Jimmy Crute (12-4-1) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:55 of round 2
2023-02-11: D vs. [#44LHW] Jimmy Crute (12-4-1) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Carlos Ulberg (3-0-0)
2023-09-09: W vs. [#53LHW] Da Woon Jung (15-5-1) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:49 of round 3
2023-05-13: W vs. [#79MW] Ihor Potieria (25-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:09 of round 1
2022-11-12: W vs. [*] Nicolae Negumereanu (13-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:44 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Carlos Ulberg	-214		64.96%
Elo K170	Alonzo Menifield	1818.36	+67.13	59.54%
Elo Modified	Alonzo Menifield	1855.90	+78.72	61.14%
Glicko-1	Alonzo Menifield	1894.14	+84.27	61.90%
WHR	Carlos Ulberg	1779.00	+47.93	56.85%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alonzo Menifield 147, Carlos Ulberg 245
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on May 2, 2024 by Jason

Another not so great week… but like every gambler in the red, I just can’t stop.

Since the “smart” parlay is supposed to be smart, I’ve been hesitant to post some of the underdogs the associated query has chosen recently. Why? Because often, the rating systems favor proven older betting underdogs on the tail-end of their career, rather than good, only somewhat proven younger fighters entering their prime. In this regard, the smart parlay is well… kind of dumb and the betters aren’t. Every year of age advantage for the younger fighter results in ~1.2% additional chance of winning. I am considering implementing this somehow, but I don’t always have birth dates for fighters and it further complicates things. We’ll see.

Bouts considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

Now for the options…

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