MMA Statistics – Page 10

Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs Nascimento (05-11-2024)

Posted on May 6, 2024 by Jason

Heavyweight (265)
[#15] Derrick Lewis (27-12-0, -153) vs. [#23] Rodrigo Nascimento (12-1-0, +125)
Derrick Lewis is the All-Time #25 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Derrick Lewis (1-2-0)
2023-11-04: L vs. [#8HW+] Jailton Almeida (20-3-0) via UD (50-44, 50-44, 50-45)
2023-07-29: W vs. [#24HW+] Marcos Rogerio de Lima (22-9-1) via TKO (Punches) in 0:33 of round 1
2023-02-04: L vs. [#10HW+] Sergey Spivak (16-4-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 3:05 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Rodrigo Nascimento (3-0-0)
2023-11-04: W vs. [#54HW+] Dontale Mayes (11-7-0) via UD ()
2023-05-20: W vs. [#25HW+] Ilir Latifi (16-9-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2022-09-17: W vs. [#68LHW] Tanner Boser (21-10-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Derrick Lewis	-153		57.63%
Elo K170	Derrick Lewis	1764.71	+21.43	53.08%
Elo Modified	Derrick Lewis	1789.57	+85.71	62.09%
Glicko-1	Derrick Lewis	1832.73	+120.95	66.73%
WHR	Derrick Lewis	1707.73	+31.91	54.58%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Derrick Lewis 189, Rodrigo Nascimento 189
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Derrick Lewis leads 2-1
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Welterweight (170)
[#12] Joaquin Buckley (18-6-0, -153) vs. [#46MW] Nursulton Ruziboev (34-8-2, +127)

Last 3 Fights: Joaquin Buckley (3-0-0)
2024-03-30: W vs. [#16WW] Vicente Luque (22-10-1) via TKO (Punches) in 3:17 of round 2
2023-10-07: W vs. [#35WW] Alex Morono (24-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-27)
2023-05-20: W vs. [#79WW] Andre Fialho (16-8-0) via TKO (Head Kick) in 4:15 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Nursulton Ruziboev (3-0-0)
2024-03-30: W vs. [#134MW] Sedriques Dumas (10-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:18 of round 1
2023-07-01: W vs. [#52MW] Brunno Ferreira (11-1-0) via TKO in 1:17 of round 1
2022-04-10: W vs. [*] Paval Masalski (14-17-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:25 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Joaquin Buckley	-153		57.85%
Elo K170	Joaquin Buckley	1963.90	+188.72	74.77%
Elo Modified	Joaquin Buckley	1947.86	+165.85	72.21%
Glicko-1	Joaquin Buckley	2025.23	+142.38	69.42%
WHR	Joaquin Buckley	1813.21	+5.26	50.76%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Joaquin Buckley 42, Nursulton Ruziboev 42
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#18] Alonzo Menifield (15-3-1, +172) vs. [#33] Carlos Ulberg (10-1-0, -214)

Last 3 Fights: Alonzo Menifield (2-0-1)
2023-12-16: W vs. [#24LHW] Dustin Jacoby (19-8-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-07-08: W vs. [#44LHW] Jimmy Crute (12-4-1) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:55 of round 2
2023-02-11: D vs. [#44LHW] Jimmy Crute (12-4-1) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Carlos Ulberg (3-0-0)
2023-09-09: W vs. [#53LHW] Da Woon Jung (15-5-1) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:49 of round 3
2023-05-13: W vs. [#79MW] Ihor Potieria (25-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:09 of round 1
2022-11-12: W vs. [*] Nicolae Negumereanu (13-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:44 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Carlos Ulberg	-214		64.96%
Elo K170	Alonzo Menifield	1818.36	+67.13	59.54%
Elo Modified	Alonzo Menifield	1855.90	+78.72	61.14%
Glicko-1	Alonzo Menifield	1894.14	+84.27	61.90%
WHR	Carlos Ulberg	1779.00	+47.93	56.85%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alonzo Menifield 147, Carlos Ulberg 245
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on May 2, 2024 by Jason

Another not so great week… but like every gambler in the red, I just can’t stop.

Since the “smart” parlay is supposed to be smart, I’ve been hesitant to post some of the underdogs the associated query has chosen recently. Why? Because often, the rating systems favor proven older betting underdogs on the tail-end of their career, rather than good, only somewhat proven younger fighters entering their prime. In this regard, the smart parlay is well… kind of dumb and the betters aren’t. Every year of age advantage for the younger fighter results in ~1.2% additional chance of winning. I am considering implementing this somehow, but I don’t always have birth dates for fighters and it further complicates things. We’ll see.

Bouts considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

Now for the options…

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg (05-04-2024)

Posted on April 29, 2024 by Jason

Flyweight Championship (125)
[#1/#3DD/#3P4P] Alexandre Pantoja (27-5-0, -253) vs. [#14] Steve Erceg (12-1-0, +201)
Alexandre Pantoja is the All-Time #9 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Alexandre Pantoja (3-0-0)
2023-12-16: W vs. [#2FLY/#6DD] Brandon Royval (16-7-0) via UD (49-46, 50-45, 50-45)
2023-07-08: W vs. [#3FLY/#7DD] Brandon Moreno (21-8-2) via SD (46-49, 48-47, 48-47)
2022-07-30: W vs. [#10FLY] Alex Perez (25-8-0) via Submission (Neck Crank) in 1:31 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Steve Erceg (3-0-0)
2024-03-02: W vs. [#58FLY] Matt Schnell (16-9-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:26 of round 2
2023-11-11: W vs. [#75FLY] Alessandro Costa (13-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-06-10: W vs. [#53FLY] David Dvorak (20-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Alexandre Pantoja	-253		68.32%
Elo K170	Alexandre Pantoja	2123.73	+359.15	88.77%
Elo Modified	Alexandre Pantoja	2042.85	+292.38	84.33%
Glicko-1	Alexandre Pantoja	2089.73	+313.03	85.84%
WHR	Alexandre Pantoja	2001.52	+287.60	83.96%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexandre Pantoja 140, Steve Erceg 63
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Bantamweight (135)
[*] Jose Aldo (31-8-0, +109) vs. [#12] Jonathan Martinez (19-4-0, -134)
Jose Aldo is the All-Time #32 ranked Bantamweight and #3 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jose Aldo (2-1-0)
2022-08-20: L vs. [#2BW/#9DD/#8P4P] Merab Dvalishvili (17-4-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-12-04: W vs. [#13BW] Rob Font (20-8-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)
2021-08-07: W vs. [#14BW] Pedro Munhoz (20-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Jonathan Martinez (3-0-0)
2023-10-14: W vs. [#60BW] Adrian Yanez (16-5-0) via TKO (Leg Kick) in 2:26 of round 2
2023-03-11: W vs. [#21BW] Said Nurmagomedov (18-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-10-15: W vs. [#32FW] Cub Swanson (29-13-0) via TKO (Leg Kick) in 4:19 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Jonathan Martinez	-134		54.47%
Elo K170	Jose Aldo	2024.35	+34.67	54.97%
Elo Modified	Jose Aldo	2047.09	+79.84	61.29%
Glicko-1	Jose Aldo	2078.63	+54.67	57.80%
WHR	Jose Aldo	1934.46	+63.60	59.05%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jose Aldo 623, Jonathan Martinez 203
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#17] Anthony Smith (37-19-0, +356) vs. [#28] Vitor Petrino (11-0-0, -491)
Anthony Smith is the All-Time #31 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Anthony Smith (1-2-0)
2023-12-09: L vs. [#10LHW] Khalil Rountree (13-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:56 of round 3
2023-08-26: W vs. [#25LHW] Ryan Spann (21-10-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-05-13: L vs. [#11LHW] Johnny Walker (21-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Vitor Petrino (3-0-0)
2024-03-02: W vs. [*] Tyson Pedro (10-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2023-11-04: W vs. [#56LHW] Modestas Bukauskas (15-6-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:03 of round 2
2023-07-08: W vs. [#43LHW] Marcin Prachnio (17-7-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 3:42 of round 3

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Vitor Petrino	-491		79.11%
Elo K170	Anthony Smith	1792.60	+12.33	51.77%
Elo Modified	Vitor Petrino	1813.82	+61.88	58.81%
Glicko-1	Vitor Petrino	1828.30	+23.22	53.34%
WHR	Vitor Petrino	1842.17	+179.93	73.80%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Anthony Smith 147, Vitor Petrino 63
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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This Week’s WHR Parlays… And Bets (UPDATED)

Posted on April 24, 2024 by Jason

Well, it was a bad week for the parlays… and the “smart” option has been looking pretty stupid. I’m adding a new requirement for the bets — I must have odds from at least three books to consider a fight. I noticed last week, that a fight only had odds from one book, and it had incredibly wild swings — probably due to a limited amount of betters taking interest in that fight and/or one rich guy spiking the punch bowl. This will limit the parlays tremendously, so I will now start posting individual bets if there is only one viable option. In addition, I’m also going to limit the “smart” parlays to 3 fighters (was 4).

Bouts considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.

Now for the options…

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez (04-27-2024)

Posted on April 22, 2024 by Jason

Flyweight (125)
[#11] Matheus Nicolau (19-3-1, -183) vs. [#60] Alex Perez (24-8-0, +152)
Matheus Nicolau is the All-Time #35 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Alex Perez is the All-Time #36 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Matheus Nicolau (2-1-0)
2023-04-15: L vs. [#2FLY/#6DD] Brandon Royval (16-7-0) via KO (Knee and Elbows) in 2:09 of round 1
2022-12-03: W vs. [#58FLY] Matt Schnell (16-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:44 of round 2
2022-03-26: W vs. [#53FLY] David Dvorak (20-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Alex Perez (0-3-0)
2024-03-02: L vs. [#8FLY] Muhammad Mokaev (12-0-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-07-30: L vs. [#1FLY/#3DD/#3P4P] Alexandre Pantoja (27-5-0) via Submission (Neck Crank) in 1:31 of round 1
2020-11-21: L vs. [#8BW/#10P4P] Deiveson Figueiredo (23-3-1) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:57 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Matheus Nicolau	-183		61.97%
Elo K170	Matheus Nicolau	1799.85	+98.94	63.87%
Elo Modified	Matheus Nicolau	1753.52	+57.73	58.23%
Glicko-1	Matheus Nicolau	1760.10	+35.02	55.02%
WHR	Matheus Nicolau	1695.15	+57.28	58.17%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Matheus Nicolau 378, Alex Perez 56
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#18] Ryan Spann (21-9-0, -193) vs. [#64] Bogdan Guskov (15-3-0, +158)

Last 3 Fights: Ryan Spann (1-2-0)
2023-08-26: L vs. [#17LHW] Anthony Smith (37-19-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-03-11: L vs. [#9LHW] Nikita Krylov (30-9-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 3:38 of round 1
2022-11-12: W vs. [*] Dominick Reyes (12-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:20 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Bogdan Guskov (2-1-0)
2024-02-10: W vs. [#120LHW] Zac Pauga (6-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:38 of round 1
2023-09-02: L vs. [#15LHW] Volkan Oezdemir (19-7-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:46 of round 1
2023-03-18: W vs. [#190HW+] Carlos Eduardo (20-11-0) via TKO in 0:25 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Ryan Spann	-193		62.95%
Elo K170	Ryan Spann	1742.06	+171.79	72.89%
Elo Modified	Ryan Spann	1808.25	+201.55	76.14%
Glicko-1	Ryan Spann	1884.59	+226.05	78.60%
WHR	Ryan Spann	1706.17	+105.89	64.78%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ryan Spann 245, Bogdan Guskov 77
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Flyweight (125)
[#15] Karine Silva (17-4-0, -147) vs. [#17] Ariane Lipski (17-8-0, +121)

Last 3 Fights: Karine Silva (3-0-0)
2023-08-19: W vs. [#34FLY] Maryna Moroz (11-6-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:59 of round 1
2023-06-03: W vs. [#57FLY] Ketlen Souza (13-4-0) via Submission (Kneebar) in 1:45 of round 1
2022-06-04: W vs. [*] Poliana Botelho (9-5-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 4:55 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Ariane Lipski (3-0-0)
2023-12-16: W vs. [#28FLY] Casey ONeill (9-2-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 1:18 of round 2
2023-07-01: W vs. [#33FLY] Melissa Gatto (8-2-2) via SD (28-29, 30-27, 29-28)
2023-03-11: W vs. [#25FLY] J.J. Aldrich (13-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Karine Silva	-147		56.80%
Elo K170	Karine Silva	1674.63	+72.02	60.22%
Elo Modified	Karine Silva	1689.78	+110.32	65.36%
Glicko-1	Karine Silva	1765.73	+200.47	76.02%
WHR	Karine Silva	1682.86	+191.75	75.10%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Karine Silva 252, Ariane Lipski 133
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
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This Week’s WHR Parlays

Posted on April 17, 2024 by Jason

Good news — Another win for the “Safe” parlay last week! With regards to the “Underdog” parlay, I find myself constantly wanting to tweak the criteria as it has the potential to get ridiculous. It is meant to be a longshot option, but I prefer to stop short of insanely long odds. Then again, the goal with the parlays isn’t just to make money, but to also have a good hit rate when compared to the betting odds. Have any thoughts? Leave a comment!

Bouts considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.

Now for the parlays…

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This Week’s WHR Parlays

Posted on April 10, 2024 by Jason

Once again, we hit the safe parlay last week, but the others failed. The smart parlay isn’t feeling so smart so far, and I may tighten the belt more on the requirements for that one in the near future.

This week, there is only 1 qualifying fight for the underdog and smart options (Oliveira/Tsarukyan), so going to skip those.

Post #4 in the series.. Here we go…

Bouts considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.

Now for the parlays…

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill (04-13-2024)

Posted on April 8, 2024 by Jason

Light Heavyweight Championship (205)
[#1/#8P4P] Alex Pereira (9-2-0, -142) vs. [#4] Jamahal Hill (13-1-0, +116)
Alex Pereira is the All-Time #25 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.
Jamahal Hill is the All-Time #30 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Alex Pereira (2-1-0)
2023-11-11: W vs. [#5LHW] Jiri Prochazka (29-4-1) via TKO (Elbows) in 4:08 of round 2
2023-07-29: W vs. [#2LHW] Jan Blachowicz (29-10-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-04-08: L vs. [#1MW] Israel Adesanya (24-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:21 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Jamahal Hill (3-0-0)
2023-01-21: W vs. [*] Glover Teixeira (33-9-0) via UD (50-44, 50-44, 50-44)
2022-08-06: W vs. [#13LHW] Thiago Santos (22-12-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 2:31 of round 4
2022-02-19: W vs. [#11LHW] Johnny Walker (21-8-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:55 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Alex Pereira	-142		55.89%
Elo K170	Alex Pereira	2163.84	+110.79	65.42%
Elo Modified	Alex Pereira	2125.15	+69.63	59.89%
Glicko-1	Alex Pereira	2220.93	+73.88	60.47%
WHR	Alex Pereira	2067.96	+112.30	65.62%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alex Pereira 154, Jamahal Hill 448
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Strawweight Championship (115)
[#1/#1DD/#1P4P] Weili Zhang (24-3-0, -413) vs. [#2/#7DD/#9P4P] Xiaonan Yan (18-3-0, +307)
Weili Zhang is the All-Time #5 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Weili Zhang (3-0-0)
2023-08-19: W vs. [#4SW/#10DD] Amanda Lemos (14-3-1) via UD (50-43, 50-44, 49-45)
2022-11-12: W vs. [*] Carla Esparza (19-7-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:05 of round 2
2022-06-11: W vs. [*] Joanna Jedrzejczyk (16-5-0) via KO (Spinning Backfist) in 2:28 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Xiaonan Yan (2-1-0)
2023-05-06: W vs. [#5SW] Jessica Andrade (25-12-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:20 of round 1
2022-10-01: W vs. [#8SW] Mackenzie Dern (13-5-0) via MD (48-47, 48-47, 47-47)
2022-03-05: L vs. [#7SW] Marina Rodriguez (17-3-2) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Weili Zhang	-413		76.61%
Elo K170	Weili Zhang	2002.50	+192.93	75.22%
Elo Modified	Weili Zhang	1956.56	+170.64	72.75%
Glicko-1	Weili Zhang	1986.84	+233.28	79.30%
WHR	Weili Zhang	1881.92	+193.01	75.23%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Weili Zhang 238, Xiaonan Yan 343
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Weili Zhang leads 2-1
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Lightweight (155)
[#3/#10P4P] Justin Gaethje (25-4-0, -190) vs. [#3FW] Max Holloway (25-7-0, +155)
Justin Gaethje is the All-Time #12 ranked Lightweight fighter.
Max Holloway is the All-Time #8 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Justin Gaethje (2-1-0)
2023-07-29: W vs. [#4LW] Dustin Poirier (30-8-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 1:00 of round 2
2023-03-18: W vs. [#9LW] Rafael Fiziev (12-3-0) via MD (29-28, 28-28, 29-28)
2022-05-07: L vs. [#2LW/#6DD/#9P4P] Charles Oliveira (34-9-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:22 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Max Holloway (2-1-0)
2023-08-26: W vs. [*] Chan Sung Jung (17-8-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:23 of round 3
2023-04-15: W vs. [#8FW] Arnold Allen (19-3-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
2022-07-02: L vs. [#2FW/#8DD] Alexander Volkanovski (26-4-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Justin Gaethje	-190		62.55%
Elo K170	Justin Gaethje	2373.34	+90.39	62.72%
Elo Modified	Justin Gaethje	2281.41	+31.72	54.55%
Glicko-1	Justin Gaethje	2361.62	+18.82	52.71%
WHR	Max Holloway	2104.89	+21.13	53.04%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Justin Gaethje 259, Max Holloway 231
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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This Week’s WHR Parlays… (Updated)

Posted on April 3, 2024 by Jason

Last week was a good week. Technically, two out of three parlays hit — the “underdog” and the “safe” options. Jason Butcher, who was featured in the “underdog” parlay, withdrew from his fight. This reduced the underdog option to one fight, but it still would’ve cashed at a lesser payout.

I’m going to start tracking progress back to the start of the weekly 3-parlay posts and include that ongoing. This is post #3.

Here we go…

Bouts considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 5 fights with at least 1 draw or 1 loss. More data makes WHR happy.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Major organizations only. If it is a dead week, I’ll bend. Other interesting bets may be posted in comments.

Now for the parlays…

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis (04-06-2024)

Posted on April 1, 2024 by Jason

Middleweight (185)
[#9] Brendan Allen (23-5-0, -208) vs. [#21] Chris Curtis (31-10-0, +168)

Last 3 Fights: Brendan Allen (3-0-0)
2023-11-18: W vs. [#18MW] Paul Craig (17-7-1) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 0:38 of round 3
2023-06-24: W vs. [#42MW] Bruno Silva (23-11-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:39 of round 1
2023-02-25: W vs. [#20MW] Andre Muniz (24-6-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:25 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Chris Curtis (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2024-01-20: W vs. [#38MW] Marc-Andre Barriault (17-7-0) via SD (28-29, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-06-10: NC vs. [#13MW] Nassourdine Imavov (13-4-0)
2023-04-08: L vs. [#26WW] Kelvin Gastelum (18-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Brendan Allen	-208		64.41%
Elo K170	Brendan Allen	2095.28	+233.56	79.32%
Elo Modified	Brendan Allen	2085.52	+251.76	80.99%
Glicko-1	Brendan Allen	2185.78	+289.72	84.13%
WHR	Brendan Allen	1973.53	+164.11	72.00%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brendan Allen 140, Chris Curtis 77
Previous Match-up Record: Chris Curtis leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#41] Damon Jackson (22-6-1, +156) vs. [#82] Alexander Hernandez (14-7-0, -192)

Last 3 Fights: Damon Jackson (1-2-0)
2023-08-05: L vs. [#38FW] Billy Quarantillo (18-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-01-14: L vs. [#16FW] Dan Ige (18-7-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:13 of round 2
2022-09-17: W vs. [#76FW] Pat Sabatini (18-5-0) via TKO (Submission to Punches) in 1:09 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Alexander Hernandez (1-2-0)
2023-10-07: L vs. [#35FW] Bill Algeo (18-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-02-18: W vs. [#54LW] Jim Miller (37-17-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-12-10: L vs. [#38FW] Billy Quarantillo (18-6-0) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 4:30 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Alexander Hernandez	-192		62.73%
Elo K170	Damon Jackson	1656.37	+37.89	55.43%
Elo Modified	Damon Jackson	1661.48	+32.25	54.63%
Glicko-1	Damon Jackson	1704.49	+12.92	51.86%
WHR	Damon Jackson	1665.57	+91.26	62.84%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Damon Jackson 245, Alexander Hernandez 182
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#46] Jose Mariscal (15-6-0, +135) vs. [#110] Morgan Charriere (19-9-1, -166)

Last 3 Fights: Jose Mariscal (3-0-0)
2023-09-09: W vs. [#144FW] Jack Jenkins (12-3-0) via TKO (Arm Injury) in 3:19 of round 2
2023-06-24: W vs. [#159LW] Trevor Peek (9-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-02-17: W vs. [#118FW] Guilherme Faria de Souza (19-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:02 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Morgan Charriere (3-0-0)
2023-09-02: W vs. [#534FW] Manolo Zecchini (11-4-0) via KO (Body Kick and Punches) in 3:51 of round 1
2023-07-21: W vs. [#332LW] Diego Silva (16-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:13 of round 3
2023-04-29: W vs. [#924FW] Pedro Souza (18-5-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Morgan Charriere	-166		59.46%
Elo K170	Jose Mariscal	1727.04	+106.94	64.92%
Elo Modified	Jose Mariscal	1742.40	+109.44	65.25%
Glicko-1	Jose Mariscal	1774.05	+58.91	58.40%
WHR	Jose Mariscal	1710.42	+82.76	61.69%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jose Mariscal 210, Morgan Charriere 217
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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This Week’s WHR Parlays…

Posted on March 27, 2024 by Jason

This post covers the rest of March. Hopefully we’ll hit something. It is a bit of a dead week, so I’m bending a bit and including some lesser organizations in the parlays.

In this post, I’m going to cover this week’s fights and will now feature three different parlays:

Bouts considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 5 fights with at least 1 draw or 1 loss. More data makes WHR happy.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Major organizations only. If it is a dead week, I’ll bend. Other interesting bets may be posted in comments.

Now for the parlays…

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot (03-30-2024)

Posted on March 25, 2024 by Jason

Women Flyweight (125)
[#3/#8DD/#8P4P] Manon Fiorot (11-1-0, +116) vs. [#4/#7P4P] Erin Blanchfield (12-1-0, -141)
Manon Fiorot is the All-Time #44 ranked Women’s fighter.
Erin Blanchfield is the All-Time #48 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Manon Fiorot (3-0-0)
2023-09-02: W vs. [#5FLY/#3P4P] Rose Namajunas (12-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2022-10-22: W vs. [#10FLY] Katlyn Cerminara (18-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-03-26: W vs. [#12FLY] Jennifer Maia (21-10-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Erin Blanchfield (3-0-0)
2023-08-26: W vs. [#9FLY] Taila Santos (19-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-02-18: W vs. [#5SW] Jessica Andrade (25-12-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:37 of round 2
2022-11-12: W vs. [#34SW] Molly McCann (14-6-0) via Submission (Kimura) in 3:37 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Erin Blanchfield	-141		55.82%
Elo K170	Manon Fiorot	1900.55	+21.15	53.04%
Elo Modified	Erin Blanchfield	1903.15	+29.37	54.22%
Glicko-1	Erin Blanchfield	1926.20	+55.87	57.97%
WHR	Erin Blanchfield	1797.42	+0.53	50.08%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Manon Fiorot 210, Erin Blanchfield 217
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#11] Vicente Luque (22-9-1, -148) vs. [#25] Joaquin Buckley (17-6-0, +121)
Vicente Luque is the All-Time #41 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Vicente Luque (1-2-0)
2023-08-12: W vs. [#11LW] Rafael dos Anjos (32-16-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
2022-08-06: L vs. [#15WW] Geoff Neal (15-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:01 of round 3
2022-04-16: L vs. [#3WW] Belal Muhammad (23-3-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Joaquin Buckley (2-1-0)
2023-10-07: W vs. [#35WW] Alex Morono (23-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-27)
2023-05-20: W vs. [#81WW] Andre Fialho (16-8-0) via TKO (Head Kick) in 4:15 of round 2
2022-12-10: L vs. [#21MW] Chris Curtis (31-10-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:49 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Vicente Luque	-148		56.87%
Elo K170	Vicente Luque	2059.66	+230.09	79.00%
Elo Modified	Vicente Luque	2021.41	+189.63	74.87%
Glicko-1	Vicente Luque	2070.41	+188.13	74.70%
WHR	Vicente Luque	1890.49	+171.19	72.82%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Vicente Luque 231, Joaquin Buckley 175
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#32] Bruno Silva (23-10-0, -277) vs. [#66] Chris Weidman (15-7-0, +217)
Chris Weidman is the All-Time #3 ranked Middleweight and #22 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Bruno Silva (1-2-0)
2023-10-21: L vs. [#23MW] Sharabutdin Magomedov (13-0-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-06-24: L vs. [#9MW] Brendan Allen (23-5-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:39 of round 1
2023-04-22: W vs. [#33MW] Brad Tavares (20-9-0) via TKO (Knee and Punch) in 3:35 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Chris Weidman (1-2-0)
2023-08-19: L vs. [#33MW] Brad Tavares (20-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-04-24: L vs. [*] Uriah Hall (17-11-0) via TKO (Leg Injury) in 0:17 of round 1
2020-08-08: W vs. [*] Omari Akhmedov (24-8-1) via UD (29-27, 29-27, 29-28)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Bruno Silva	-277		69.95%
Elo K170	Chris Weidman	1745.05	+84.73	61.96%
Elo Modified	Chris Weidman	1771.85	+85.32	62.04%
Glicko-1	Chris Weidman	1791.07	+54.93	57.84%
WHR	Bruno Silva	1683.24	+148.55	70.17%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Bruno Silva 161, Chris Weidman 224
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Bruno Silva leads 1-0
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This Week’s WHR Parlays…

Posted on March 20, 2024 by Jason

I know I said in my last post, I was going to cover the rest of March in that one, but changed my mind.

In this post, I’m going to cover this week’s fights and will now feature three different parlays:

Bouts considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 5 fights with at least 1 draw or 1 loss. More data makes WHR happy.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Major organizations only. I may leave comments on interesting bets for other organizations.

Now for the parlays…

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas (03-23-2024)

Posted on March 18, 2024 by Jason

Women Flyweight (125)
[#9/#4P4P] Rose Namajunas (11-6-0, -177) vs. [#6SW] Amanda Ribas (12-4-0, +146)
Rose Namajunas is the All-Time #10 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Rose Namajunas (1-2-0)
2023-09-02: L vs. [#3FLY/#7DD/#8P4P] Manon Fiorot (11-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2022-05-07: L vs. [*] Carla Esparza (19-7-0) via SD ()
2021-11-06: W vs. [#1SW/#1DD/#1P4P] Weili Zhang (24-3-0) via SD (47-48, 49-46, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Amanda Ribas (2-1-0)
2023-11-18: W vs. [#29SW] Luana Pinheiro (11-2-0) via TKO (Spinning Wheel Kick and Punches) in 3:53 of round 3
2023-06-24: L vs. [#5FLY] Maycee Barber (14-2-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 3:42 of round 2
2023-03-04: W vs. [#11FLY] Viviane Araujo (12-6-0) via UD (29-27, 30-26, 30-27)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Rose Namajunas	-177		61.11%
Elo K170	Rose Namajunas	1779.79	+124.26	67.15%
Elo Modified	Rose Namajunas	1755.84	+84.86	61.97%
Glicko-1	Rose Namajunas	1735.05	+75.64	60.72%
WHR	Rose Namajunas	1699.09	+61.24	58.72%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rose Namajunas 203, Amanda Ribas 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[#60] Justin Tafa (7-3-0, +209) vs. [#68] Karl Williams (9-1-0, -267)

Last 3 Fights: Justin Tafa (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2023-09-09: W vs. [#125HW+] Austen Lane (12-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:22 of round 1
2023-06-24: NC vs. [#125HW+] Austen Lane (12-4-0)
2023-02-11: W vs. [#120HW+] Parker Porter (13-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:06 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Karl Williams (3-0-0)
2023-05-13: W vs. [#69HW+] Chase Sherman (18-12-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2023-03-11: W vs. [#169HW+] Lukasz Brzeski (8-4-1) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-26)
2022-09-06: W vs. [*] Jimmy Lawson (4-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Karl Williams	-267		69.21%
Elo K170	Karl Williams	1548.72	+32.94	54.73%
Elo Modified	Karl Williams	1622.79	+50.33	57.19%
Glicko-1	Justin Tafa	1623.74	+50.05	57.15%
WHR	Justin Tafa	1521.04	+53.90	57.70%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Justin Tafa 196, Karl Williams 315
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#63] Edmen Shahbazyan (12-4-0, -192) vs. [#156] A.J. Dobson (7-2-0, +156)

Last 3 Fights: Edmen Shahbazyan (1-2-0)
2023-05-20: L vs. [#25MW] Anthony Hernandez (12-2-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 1:01 of round 3
2022-12-10: W vs. [*] Dalcha Lungiambula (11-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:41 of round 2
2021-11-06: L vs. [#13MW] Nassourdine Imavov (13-4-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 4:42 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: A.J. Dobson (1-2-0)
2023-08-12: W vs. [#175MW] Tafon Nchukwi (6-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-10-22: L vs. [#80MW] Armen Petrosyan (9-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-02-12: L vs. [#107MW] Jacob Malkoun (7-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Edmen Shahbazyan	-192		62.73%
Elo K170	Edmen Shahbazyan	1578.86	+173.80	73.12%
Elo Modified	Edmen Shahbazyan	1592.60	+100.31	64.05%
Glicko-1	Edmen Shahbazyan	1618.65	+166.34	72.26%
WHR	Edmen Shahbazyan	1543.43	+80.90	61.44%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Edmen Shahbazyan 308, A.J. Dobson 224
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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WHR Parlays – The Rest of March…

Posted on March 14, 2024 by Jason

We debuted the “WHR Parlay” series recently and you can view that here. We got so very close to hitting and as a result, I thought we’d try again.

An issue with the parlays, is that there are a lot checkboxes that a fight must tick off to qualify. Therefore, I am combining multiple events in one post and am also opening it up to all of MMA. Though there is not much betting action on non-UFC fights (as far as I can tell), if they qualify and I have the info, I will throw them in.

In this post, I will also throw in a second parlay… a collection of the best bets (favorites included). This one is a bit more subjective as I need to “draw the line” on the amount of fights to include.

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