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Fight Matrix

Fight Matrix Program – UFC 304: Edwards vs Muhammad 2 (07-20-2024)

Posted on July 22, 2024 by Jason

Welterweight Championship (170)
[#1/#4DD/#2P4P] Leon Edwards (22-3-0, -219) vs. [#3] Belal Muhammad (23-3-0, +178)
Leon Edwards is the All-Time #5 ranked Welterweight and #41 ranked Absolute fighter.
Belal Muhammad is the All-Time #30 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Leon Edwards (3-0-0)
2023-12-16: W vs. [#4WW] Colby Covington (17-4-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2023-03-18: W vs. [#2WW] Kamaru Usman (20-4-0) via MD (48-46, 48-46, 47-47)
2022-08-20: W vs. [#2WW] Kamaru Usman (20-4-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 4:04 of round 5

Last 3 Fights: Belal Muhammad (3-0-0)
2023-05-06: W vs. [#8WW] Gilbert Burns (22-7-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)
2022-10-22: W vs. [#9WW] Sean Brady (16-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:47 of round 2
2022-04-16: W vs. [#17WW] Vicente Luque (22-10-1) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Leon Edwards -219 65.61%
Elo K170 Leon Edwards 2511.81 +146.49 69.92%
Elo Modified Leon Edwards 2428.91 +127.03 67.51%
Glicko-1 Leon Edwards 2475.92 +98.88 63.86%
WHR Leon Edwards 2197.26 +76.98 60.90%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Leon Edwards 224, Belal Muhammad 448
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight Championship (265)
[#2] Tom Aspinall (14-3-0, -386) vs. [#4] Curtis Blaydes (18-4-0, +297)
Tom Aspinall is the All-Time #30 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Curtis Blaydes is the All-Time #23 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Tom Aspinall (2-1-0)
2023-11-11: W vs. [#5HW+] Sergei Pavlovich (18-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:09 of round 1
2023-07-22: W vs. [#8HW+] Marcin Tybura (25-8-0) via TKO (Elbow and Punches) in 1:13 of round 1
2022-07-23: L vs. [#4HW+] Curtis Blaydes (18-4-0) via TKO (Knee Injury) in 0:15 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Curtis Blaydes (2-1-0)
2024-03-09: W vs. [#7HW+] Jailton Almeida (21-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:36 of round 2
2023-04-22: L vs. [#5HW+] Sergei Pavlovich (18-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:08 of round 1
2022-07-23: W vs. [#2HW+] Tom Aspinall (14-3-0) via TKO (Knee Injury) in 0:15 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Tom Aspinall -386 75.92%
Elo K170 Curtis Blaydes 2095.51 +9.74 51.40%
Elo Modified Tom Aspinall 2083.63 +3.46 50.50%
Glicko-1 Curtis Blaydes 2176.97 +6.01 50.86%
WHR Tom Aspinall 2040.57 +12.12 51.74%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Tom Aspinall 259, Curtis Blaydes 140
Previous Match-up Record: Curtis Blaydes leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Tom Aspinall leads 2-1
.

Lightweight (155)
[#19] Bobby Green (32-15-1, -123) vs. [#27] Paddy Pimblett (21-3-0, +101)

Last 3 Fights: Bobby Green (2-1-0)
2024-04-13: W vs. [#68LW] Jim Miller (37-18-0) via UD (29-27, 30-25, 29-26)
2023-12-02: L vs. [#17LW] Jalin Turner (14-8-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:49 of round 1
2023-10-07: W vs. [#25LW] Grant Dawson (21-2-1) via KO (Punches) in 0:33 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Paddy Pimblett (3-0-0)
2023-12-16: W vs. [#96LW] Tony Ferguson (25-10-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-12-10: W vs. [#57LW] Jared Gordon (20-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-07-23: W vs. [#227LW] Jordan Leavitt (11-3-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:46 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Bobby Green -123 52.57%
Elo K170 Paddy Pimblett 1926.89 +17.54 52.52%
Elo Modified Paddy Pimblett 1929.69 +36.86 55.29%
Glicko-1 Bobby Green 1970.21 +4.50 50.65%
WHR Paddy Pimblett 1895.57 +71.84 60.19%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Bobby Green 105, Paddy Pimblett 224
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#25] Gregory Rodrigues (15-5-0, +103) vs. [#77] Christian Leroy Duncan (10-1-0, -127)

Last 3 Fights: Gregory Rodrigues (2-1-0)
2024-02-10: W vs. [#33MW] Brad Tavares (20-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:55 of round 3
2023-08-19: W vs. [#144MW] Denis Tiuliulin (10-9-0) via KO (Elbows) in 1:43 of round 1
2023-01-21: L vs. [#39MW] Brunno Ferreira (12-1-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:13 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Christian Leroy Duncan (2-1-0)
2024-03-02: W vs. [#157MW] Claudio Ribeiro (11-5-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 1:57 of round 2
2023-11-18: W vs. [#144MW] Denis Tiuliulin (10-9-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 4:24 of round 2
2023-06-17: L vs. [#76MW] Armen Petrosyan (9-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Christian Leroy Duncan -127 53.17%
Elo K170 Gregory Rodrigues 1801.06 +145.70 69.82%
Elo Modified Gregory Rodrigues 1839.31 +122.89 66.98%
Glicko-1 Gregory Rodrigues 1905.08 +169.56 72.63%
WHR Gregory Rodrigues 1770.43 +111.67 65.54%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Gregory Rodrigues 168, Christian Leroy Duncan 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#8] Arnold Allen (19-3-0, -254) vs. [#11] Giga Chikadze (15-3-0, +205)
Arnold Allen is the All-Time #29 ranked Featherweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Arnold Allen (1-2-0)
2024-01-20: L vs. [#6FW] Movsar Evloev (18-0-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-04-15: L vs. [#4LW] Max Holloway (26-7-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
2022-10-29: W vs. [#14FW] Calvin Kattar (23-8-0) via TKO (Knee Injury) in 0:08 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Giga Chikadze (2-1-0)
2023-08-26: W vs. [#36FW] Alex Caceres (21-15-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-01-15: L vs. [#14FW] Calvin Kattar (23-8-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-44)
2021-08-28: W vs. [#35FW] Edson Barboza (24-12-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:44 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Arnold Allen -254 68.63%
Elo K170 Arnold Allen 1965.45 +36.47 55.23%
Elo Modified Arnold Allen 1963.96 +71.70 60.18%
Glicko-1 Arnold Allen 1996.39 +47.86 56.84%
WHR Arnold Allen 1952.99 +174.35 73.17%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Arnold Allen 189, Giga Chikadze 336
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Arnold Allen leads 1-0
.

Flyweight (125)
[#7] Manel Kape (19-6-0, +105) vs. [#8] Muhammad Mokaev (12-0-0, -127)
Manel Kape is the All-Time #29 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Muhammad Mokaev is the All-Time #49 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Manel Kape (3-0-0)
2023-09-09: W vs. [#63FLY] Felipe dos Santos (9-1-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-12-17: W vs. [#109FLY] David Dvorak (20-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2021-12-04: W vs. [#66FLY] Zhalgas Zhumagulov (16-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:02 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Muhammad Mokaev (3-0-0)
2024-03-02: W vs. [#17FLY] Alex Perez (25-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-10-21: W vs. [#22FLY] Tim Elliott (20-13-1) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 3:03 of round 3
2023-03-18: W vs. [#43FLY] Jafel Filho (16-3-0) via Submission (Neck Crank) in 4:32 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Muhammad Mokaev -127 53.42%
Elo K170 Muhammad Mokaev 1906.35 +107.82 65.04%
Elo Modified Muhammad Mokaev 1889.61 +80.97 61.44%
Glicko-1 Muhammad Mokaev 1944.18 +75.32 60.67%
WHR Muhammad Mokaev 1829.48 +26.60 53.82%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Manel Kape 322, Muhammad Mokaev 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#52] Nathaniel Wood (19-6-0, -511) vs. [#67] Daniel Pineda (28-15-0, +369)

Last 3 Fights: Nathaniel Wood (2-1-0)
2023-10-21: L vs. [#51FW] Muhammadjon Naimov (11-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-07-22: W vs. [#40FW] Andre Fili (24-11-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-09-03: W vs. [#69FW] Charles Jourdain (15-8-1) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Daniel Pineda (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2023-06-03: L vs. [#36FW] Alex Caceres (21-15-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-03-25: W vs. [#407FW] Tucker Lutz (12-4-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:50 of round 2
2021-06-26: NC vs. [#40FW] Andre Fili (24-11-0)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Nathaniel Wood -511 79.68%
Elo K170 Nathaniel Wood 1690.88 +34.33 54.92%
Elo Modified Nathaniel Wood 1695.01 +18.10 52.60%
Glicko-1 Daniel Pineda 1738.39 +29.24 54.20%
WHR Nathaniel Wood 1661.79 +51.03 57.29%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Nathaniel Wood 280, Daniel Pineda 420
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Strawweight (115)
[#36] Molly McCann (14-6-0, -307) vs. [#55] Bruna Brasil (9-4-1, +243)

Last 3 Fights: Molly McCann (1-2-0)
2024-02-03: W vs. [#108SW] Diana Belbita (15-9-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:59 of round 1
2023-07-22: L vs. [#41FLY] Julija Stoliarenko (11-8-2) via Submission (Armbar) in 1:55 of round 1
2022-11-12: L vs. [#5FLY] Erin Blanchfield (12-2-0) via Submission (Kimura) in 3:37 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Bruna Brasil (1-2-0)
2024-02-10: L vs. [#17SW] Konklak Suphisara (9-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-07-22: W vs. [#106SW] Shauna Bannon (5-1-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2023-04-15: L vs. [#16SW] Denise Gomes (9-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:42 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Molly McCann -307 72.12%
Elo K170 Molly McCann 1394.36 +27.89 54.00%
Elo Modified Molly McCann 1440.76 +25.17 53.62%
Glicko-1 Molly McCann 1400.66 +40.37 55.78%
WHR Bruna Brasil 1395.65 +38.93 55.58%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Molly McCann 175, Bruna Brasil 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#130] Caolan Loughran (9-1-0, -217) vs. [#83FLY] Jake Hadley (10-3-0, +182)

Last 3 Fights: Caolan Loughran (2-1-0)
2024-03-30: W vs. [#755BW] Angel Pacheco (8-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-27)
2023-09-02: L vs. [#43BW] Taylor Lapilus (20-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-05-06: W vs. [#392FLY] Dylan Hazan (9-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:44 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Jake Hadley (1-2-0)
2024-05-11: L vs. [#16FLY] Charles Johnson (16-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-08-05: L vs. [#45FLY] Cody Durden (16-6-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-03-18: W vs. [#190FLY] Malcolm Gordon (14-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:01 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Caolan Loughran -217 65.87%
Elo K170 Caolan Loughran 1550.14 +103.36 64.45%
Elo Modified Caolan Loughran 1548.25 +49.07 57.02%
Glicko-1 Caolan Loughran 1584.36 +42.84 56.14%
WHR Caolan Loughran 1554.52 +56.28 58.03%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Caolan Loughran 119, Jake Hadley 77
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#58] Michael Parkin (9-0-0, -238) vs. [#93] Lukasz Brzeski (9-4-1, +192)

Last 3 Fights: Michael Parkin (3-0-0)
2024-03-23: W vs. [#104HW+] Mohammed Usman (10-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-11-18: W vs. [#126HW+] Caio Machado (8-3-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-07-22: W vs. [#109HW+] Jamal Pogues (11-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Lukasz Brzeski (1-2-0)
2024-04-06: W vs. [#107HW+] Valter Walker (11-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-08-26: L vs. [#45HW+] Waldo Cortes-Acosta (12-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:01 of round 1
2023-03-11: L vs. [#54HW+] Karl Williams (10-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-26)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Michael Parkin -238 67.27%
Elo K170 Michael Parkin 1656.57 +211.30 77.14%
Elo Modified Michael Parkin 1654.49 +143.50 69.55%
Glicko-1 Michael Parkin 1651.89 +135.75 68.60%
WHR Michael Parkin 1577.89 +134.10 68.39%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Michael Parkin 126, Lukasz Brzeski 112
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#67] Preston Parsons (11-4-0, -157) vs. [#90] Oban Elliott (10-2-0, +130)

Last 3 Fights: Preston Parsons (2-1-0)
2024-01-13: W vs. [#77WW] Matthew Semelsberger (11-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-03-25: L vs. [#144WW] Trevin Giles (16-6-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-04-23: W vs. [#210WW] Evan Elder (9-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Oban Elliott (3-0-0)
2024-02-17: W vs. [#571WW] Valentine Woodburn (7-2-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2023-08-22: W vs. [#97WW] Kaik Brito (16-5-0) via MD ()
2023-04-29: W vs. [#200WW] James Sheehan (8-3-0) via UD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Preston Parsons -157 58.42%
Elo K170 Oban Elliott 1629.93 +73.10 60.37%
Elo Modified Oban Elliott 1639.73 +17.17 52.47%
Glicko-1 Preston Parsons 1649.62 +43.70 56.26%
WHR Preston Parsons 1624.12 +100.69 64.10%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Preston Parsons 196, Oban Elliott 161
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#150] Sam Patterson (11-2-1, -353) vs. [#226] Kiefer Crosbie (10-4-0, +269)

Last 3 Fights: Sam Patterson (2-1-0)
2024-01-20: W vs. [#297WW] Yohan Lainesse (9-3-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:03 of round 1
2023-03-18: L vs. [#219LW] Yanal Ashmoz (8-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:15 of round 1
2022-09-27: W vs. [#628LW] Vinicius Sacchelli Cenci (9-3-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:18 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Kiefer Crosbie (2-1-0)
2023-09-09: L vs. [#104WW] Kevin Jousset (10-2-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:49 of round 1
2023-04-01: W vs. [#192WW] Alex Oliveira (25-15-1) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 4:14 of round 1
2022-07-02: W vs. [NA] Brian Lo-A-Njoe (6-13-3) via TKO (Elbows) in 1:28 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Sam Patterson -353 74.19%
Elo K170 Sam Patterson 1601.37 +233.32 79.30%
Elo Modified Sam Patterson 1642.80 +232.50 79.22%
Glicko-1 Sam Patterson 1664.74 +289.30 84.10%
WHR Sam Patterson 1607.56 +261.89 81.87%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sam Patterson 189, Kiefer Crosbie 322
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Bantamweight (135)
[#74SW] Alice Ardelean (8-5-0) vs. [#106SW] Shauna Bannon (5-1-0)

Last 3 Fights: Alice Ardelean (3-0-0)
2023-08-12: W vs. [NA] Dilia Ordonez (0-5-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:10 of round 1
2023-03-02: W vs. [*] Jessica Mouneimne (2-1-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 1
2022-03-19: W vs. [NA] Jenny Line (0-4-0) via KO in 0:55 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Shauna Bannon (2-1-0)
2023-07-22: L vs. [#55SW] Bruna Brasil (9-4-1) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2023-03-15: W vs. [*] Minna Grusander (6-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-12-04: W vs. [NA] Kerry Isom (1-3-0) via UD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Elo K170 Shauna Bannon 1269.59 +13.00 51.87%
Elo Modified Shauna Bannon 1393.20 +117.96 66.35%
Glicko-1 Alice Ardelean 1316.27 +32.61 54.68%
WHR Alice Ardelean 1364.62 +99.49 63.94%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alice Ardelean 350, Shauna Bannon 371
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#40] Marcin Prachnio (17-7-0, +123) vs. [#53] Modestas Bukauskas (15-6-0, -149)

Last 3 Fights: Marcin Prachnio (2-1-0)
2024-02-10: W vs. [#47LHW] Devin Clark (14-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-07-08: L vs. [#33LHW] Vitor Petrino (11-1-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 3:42 of round 3
2023-02-18: W vs. [#151HW+] William Knight (11-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Modestas Bukauskas (2-1-0)
2023-11-04: L vs. [#33LHW] Vitor Petrino (11-1-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:03 of round 2
2023-06-17: W vs. [#128HW+] Zac Pauga (7-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2023-02-11: W vs. [*] Tyson Pedro (10-5-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Modestas Bukauskas -149 57.16%
Elo K170 Modestas Bukauskas 1585.60 +11.02 51.59%
Elo Modified Modestas Bukauskas 1638.32 +28.08 54.03%
Glicko-1 Modestas Bukauskas 1633.27 +27.51 53.95%
WHR Modestas Bukauskas 1597.72 +2.25 50.32%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Marcin Prachnio 168, Modestas Bukauskas 266
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Marcin Prachnio leads 1-0
.

Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
– Implied probability (odds) listed is not the pure mathematical conversion, but the fighters’ share of the combined probability (both added = 100%).

Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Leon Edwards
Highest Stored DD Rating: Leon Edwards
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Outstanding [****½]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Large [***½]
Run Date: 2024-7-21

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