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Fight Matrix

Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs Spivac 2 (08-10-2024)

Posted on August 5, 2024 by Jason

Heavyweight (265)
[#8] Marcin Tybura (25-8-0, +100) vs. [#9] Sergey Spivak (16-4-0, -121)

Last 3 Fights: Marcin Tybura (2-1-0)
2024-03-16: W vs. [#14HW+] Tai Tuivasa (14-7-0) via Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:08 of round 1
2023-07-22: L vs. [#1HW+/#6P4P] Tom Aspinall (15-3-0) via TKO (Elbow and Punches) in 1:13 of round 1
2023-02-04: W vs. [#29HW+] Blagoy Ivanov (19-7-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Sergey Spivak (2-1-0)
2023-09-02: L vs. [#2HW+] Ciryl Gane (12-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:44 of round 2
2023-02-04: W vs. [#12HW+] Derrick Lewis (28-12-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 3:05 of round 1
2022-08-06: W vs. [#35HW+] Augusto Sakai (16-6-1) via TKO (Punches) in 3:42 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Sergey Spivak -121 52.26%
Elo K170 Marcin Tybura 1922.76 +104.07 64.55%
Elo Modified Marcin Tybura 1933.26 +104.20 64.56%
Glicko-1 Marcin Tybura 1980.32 +110.65 65.41%
WHR Marcin Tybura 1836.85 +61.03 58.69%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Marcin Tybura 147, Sergey Spivak 343
Previous Match-up Record: Marcin Tybura leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Sergey Spivak leads 4-3
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#21] Chris Gutierrez (20-6-2, +191) vs. [#64] Javid Basharat (14-1-0, -235)

Last 3 Fights: Chris Gutierrez (1-2-0)
2023-12-09: L vs. [#11BW] Yadong Song (21-9-1) via UD (50-44, 50-45, 50-45)
2023-10-14: W vs. [#70BW] Heili Alateng (17-9-2) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-04-15: L vs. [#17BW] Pedro Munhoz (20-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Javid Basharat (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2024-03-02: L vs. [#50BW] Aiemann Zahabi (11-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-10-21: NC vs. [#34BW] Victor Henry (24-6-0)
2023-01-14: W vs. [#169FLY] Mateus Mendonca (10-3-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Javid Basharat -235 67.12%
Elo K170 Chris Gutierrez 1797.47 +126.65 67.46%
Elo Modified Chris Gutierrez 1759.67 +72.95 60.35%
Glicko-1 Chris Gutierrez 1790.74 +72.57 60.30%
WHR Javid Basharat 1668.35 +13.03 51.88%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Chris Gutierrez 245, Javid Basharat 161
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#34] Youssef Zalal (14-5-1, -356) vs. [#165] Jarno Errens (14-5-1, +273)

Last 3 Fights: Youssef Zalal (3-0-0)
2024-03-23: W vs. [#44FW] Billy Quarantillo (18-6-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:50 of round 2
2023-08-19: W vs. [NA] Vadim Zadnipryanyi (0-1-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 3:48 of round 1
2023-01-20: W vs. [*] Jake Childers (9-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:53 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Jarno Errens (1-2-0)
2024-03-23: W vs. [#402FW] Steven Nguyen (9-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-08-26: L vs. [#108FW] Seung Woo Choi (11-7-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-09-03: L vs. [#96FW] William Gomis (13-2-0) via MD (29-29, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Youssef Zalal -356 74.43%
Elo K170 Youssef Zalal 1639.06 +217.22 77.74%
Elo Modified Youssef Zalal 1682.23 +207.27 76.73%
Glicko-1 Youssef Zalal 1735.88 +234.68 79.43%
WHR Youssef Zalal 1682.68 +202.14 76.20%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Youssef Zalal 140, Jarno Errens 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Flyweight (125)
[#44] Jafel Filho (16-3-0, +175) vs. [*] Allan Nascimento (20-6-0, -213)

Last 3 Fights: Jafel Filho (2-1-0)
2024-03-16: W vs. [#99FLY] Ode Osbourne (12-7-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:27 of round 1
2023-07-22: W vs. [#299FLY] Daniel Barez (16-6-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 3:26 of round 1
2023-03-18: L vs. [#4FLY] Muhammad Mokaev (13-0-0) via Submission (Neck Crank) in 4:32 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Allan Nascimento (2-1-0)
2023-01-14: W vs. [#155FLY] Carlos Hernandez (9-4-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:16 of round 1
2022-05-14: W vs. [#127BW] Jake Hadley (11-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-10-30: L vs. [#10FLY] Tagir Ulanbekov (16-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Allan Nascimento -213 65.17%
Elo K170 Allan Nascimento 1648.27 +6.23 50.90%
Elo Modified Allan Nascimento 1698.69 +57.06 58.14%
Glicko-1 Allan Nascimento 1762.88 +71.24 60.11%
WHR Allan Nascimento 1745.93 +91.36 62.85%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jafel Filho 147, Allan Nascimento 574
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#38] Damon Jackson (23-6-1, +196) vs. [#48] Jose Mariscal (16-6-0, -242)

Last 3 Fights: Damon Jackson (1-2-0)
2024-04-06: W vs. [#100LW] Alexander Hernandez (14-8-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 27-30)
2023-08-05: L vs. [#44FW] Billy Quarantillo (18-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-01-14: L vs. [#17FW] Dan Ige (18-8-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:13 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Jose Mariscal (3-0-0)
2024-04-06: W vs. [#102FW] Morgan Charriere (19-10-1) via SD (29-28, 27-30, 29-28)
2023-09-09: W vs. [#149FW] Jack Jenkins (12-3-0) via TKO (Arm Injury) in 3:19 of round 2
2023-06-24: W vs. [#220LW] Trevor Peek (9-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jose Mariscal -242 67.68%
Elo K170 Jose Mariscal 1786.73 +54.57 57.79%
Elo Modified Jose Mariscal 1729.19 +49.06 57.01%
Glicko-1 Jose Mariscal 1770.68 +59.48 58.48%
WHR Jose Mariscal 1684.95 +44.38 56.35%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Damon Jackson 126, Jose Mariscal 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Women Bantamweight (135)
[#11] Karol Rosa (17-6-0, -177) vs. [#15] Pannie Kianzad (16-8-0, +146)

Last 3 Fights: Karol Rosa (1-2-0)
2023-12-16: L vs. [#3BW] Irene Aldana (15-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-07-01: W vs. [#26BW] Yana Santos (14-8-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-04-22: L vs. [#5BW] Norma Dumont (11-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Pannie Kianzad (1-2-0)
2024-03-16: L vs. [#6BW] Macy Chiasson (10-3-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:54 of round 1
2023-07-22: L vs. [#4BW] Ketlen Vieira (14-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-04-16: W vs. [*] Lina Lansberg (10-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Karol Rosa -177 61.11%
Elo K170 Karol Rosa 1475.41 +47.76 56.83%
Elo Modified Pannie Kianzad 1460.64 +10.95 51.58%
Glicko-1 Karol Rosa 1392.71 +1.83 50.26%
WHR Karol Rosa 1448.75 +34.14 54.90%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Karol Rosa 238, Pannie Kianzad 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Pannie Kianzad leads 3-2
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#55] Karl Williams (10-1-0, -222) vs. [#87] Jhonata Diniz (7-0-0, +182)

Last 3 Fights: Karl Williams (3-0-0)
2024-03-23: W vs. [#76HW+] Justin Tafa (7-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2023-05-13: W vs. [#62HW+] Chase Sherman (18-12-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2023-03-11: W vs. [#112HW+] Lukasz Brzeski (9-5-1) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-26)

Last 3 Fights: Jhonata Diniz (3-0-0)
2024-04-27: W vs. [#157HW+] Austen Lane (12-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:12 of round 2
2023-09-12: W vs. [#91HW+] Eduardo Neves (8-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:15 of round 1
2023-03-19: W vs. [*] Rodrigo Duarte (11-8-0) via TKO (Retirement) in 4:16 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Karl Williams -222 66.03%
Elo K170 Karl Williams 1625.66 +126.44 67.44%
Elo Modified Karl Williams 1689.20 +123.27 67.03%
Glicko-1 Karl Williams 1663.26 +88.09 62.41%
WHR Karl Williams 1528.07 +43.31 56.20%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Karl Williams 140, Jhonata Diniz 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Bantamweight (135)
[#12] Chelsea Chandler (6-2-0, +101) vs. [#26] Yana Santos (14-8-0, -123)

Last 3 Fights: Chelsea Chandler (2-1-0)
2024-03-16: W vs. [#25BW] Josiane Nunes (10-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-07-15: L vs. [#5BW] Norma Dumont (11-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-10-01: W vs. [#41FLY] Julija Stoliarenko (11-8-2) via TKO (Punches) in 4:15 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Yana Santos (0-3-0)
2023-07-01: L vs. [#11BW] Karol Rosa (17-6-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-03-25: L vs. [#7BW] Holly Holm (15-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
2021-07-10: L vs. [#3BW] Irene Aldana (15-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:35 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Yana Santos -123 52.57%
Elo K170 Chelsea Chandler 1499.40 +128.49 67.69%
Elo Modified Chelsea Chandler 1564.54 +102.39 64.32%
Glicko-1 Chelsea Chandler 1514.10 +76.95 60.90%
WHR Chelsea Chandler 1424.27 +2.29 50.33%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Chelsea Chandler 147, Yana Santos 406
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Women Strawweight (115)
[#44] Talita Alencar (5-0-1, +137) vs. [#67] Stephanie Luciano (5-1-1, -165)

Last 3 Fights: Talita Alencar (2-0-1)
2023-12-09: W vs. [#65SW] Rayanne dos Santos (14-8-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-09-19: D vs. [#67SW] Stephanie Luciano (5-1-1) via Draw (Unanimous) in 5:00 of round 3
2023-04-14: W vs. [*] Kelsey Arnesen (2-3-0) via UD ()

Last 3 Fights: Stephanie Luciano (2-0-1)
2023-09-19: D vs. [#44SW] Talita Alencar (5-0-1) via Draw (Unanimous) in 5:00 of round 3
2022-11-13: W vs. [#236FLY] Karina Aryadne (5-3-0) via UD ()
2022-09-18: W vs. [#116BW] Aline Oliveira (3-5-0) via TKO in 2:35 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Stephanie Luciano -165 59.60%
Elo K170 Talita Alencar 1388.91 +82.80 61.69%
Elo Modified Talita Alencar 1388.51 +22.75 53.27%
Glicko-1 Talita Alencar 1327.10 +28.18 54.05%
WHR Talita Alencar 1235.19 +20.16 52.90%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Talita Alencar 245, Stephanie Luciano 326
Previous Match-up Record: Even: 0-0-1
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#305] Toshiomi Kazama (10-4-0, +154) vs. [#311] Charalampos Grigoriou (8-4-0, -187)

Last 3 Fights: Toshiomi Kazama (1-2-0)
2023-08-26: L vs. [#68BW] Garrett Armfield (10-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:16 of round 1
2023-02-04: L vs. [#52BW] Rinya Nakamura (9-0-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:33 of round 1
2022-06-09: W vs. [#481FW] Keremuaili Maimaitituohet (31-13-0) via UD ()

Last 3 Fights: Charalampos Grigoriou (2-1-0)
2024-03-16: L vs. [#168BW] Chad Anheliger (13-7-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2023-08-15: W vs. [#209BW] Cameron Smotherman (11-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:00 of round 1
2023-02-10: W vs. [#1398BW] Chris Disonell (6-7-0) via TKO (Leg Kick) in 4:01 of round 5

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Charalampos Grigoriou -187 62.33%
Elo K170 Toshiomi Kazama 1304.85 +7.67 51.10%
Elo Modified Toshiomi Kazama 1313.02 +18.77 52.70%
Glicko-1 Charalampos Grigoriou 1329.27 +22.07 53.17%
WHR Toshiomi Kazama 1306.80 +5.56 50.80%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Toshiomi Kazama 350, Charalampos Grigoriou 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#133] Nikolay Veretennikov (12-4-0, +237) vs. [#180] Danny Barlow (8-0-0, -300)

Last 3 Fights: Nikolay Veretennikov (3-0-0)
2024-04-27: W vs. [#606WW] Ashley Reece (9-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:47 of round 1
2023-08-12: W vs. [#740WW] Luis Iniguez (6-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:16 of round 2
2023-05-13: W vs. [#430WW] Demarques Jackson (13-8-0) via Submission in 1:38 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Danny Barlow (3-0-0)
2024-02-17: W vs. [#367WW] Josh Quinlan (6-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:18 of round 3
2023-09-26: W vs. [#513WW] Raheam Forest (7-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:19 of round 1
2023-07-14: W vs. [NA] Jarious Gill (2-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:57 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Danny Barlow -300 71.65%
Elo K170 Nikolay Veretennikov 1621.38 +129.44 67.81%
Elo Modified Nikolay Veretennikov 1622.37 +89.15 62.55%
Glicko-1 Nikolay Veretennikov 1660.97 +130.52 67.95%
WHR Nikolay Veretennikov 1652.50 +222.57 78.27%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Nikolay Veretennikov 105, Danny Barlow 175
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
– Implied probability (odds) listed is not the pure mathematical conversion, but the fighters’ share of the combined probability (both added = 100%).
 



Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Marcin Tybura
Highest Stored DD Rating: Marcin Tybura
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Marcin Tybura vs. Sergey Spivak
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Marcin Tybura vs. Sergey Spivak
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Outstanding [****½]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Low [**]
Run Date: 2024-8-4

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