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Fight Matrix

Fight Matrix Program – UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya (08-17-2024)

Posted on August 12, 2024 by Jason

Middleweight Championship (185)
[#1] Israel Adesanya (24-3-0, -135) vs. [#2] Dricus Du Plessis (21-2-0, +111)
Israel Adesanya is the All-Time #2 ranked Middleweight and #15 ranked Absolute fighter.
Dricus Du Plessis is the All-Time #17 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Israel Adesanya (1-2-0)
2023-09-09: L vs. [#3MW] Sean Strickland (29-6-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2023-04-08: W vs. [#1LHW/#10DD/#4P4P] Alex Pereira (11-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:21 of round 2
2022-11-12: L vs. [#1LHW/#10DD/#4P4P] Alex Pereira (11-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:01 of round 5

Last 3 Fights: Dricus Du Plessis (3-0-0)
2024-01-20: W vs. [#3MW] Sean Strickland (29-6-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)
2023-07-08: W vs. [#5MW] Robert Whittaker (26-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:23 of round 2
2023-03-04: W vs. [#12MW] Derek Brunson (24-9-0) via TKO (Corner Stoppage) in 4:59 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Israel Adesanya -135 54.79%
Elo K170 Dricus Du Plessis 2298.00 +179.85 73.80%
Elo Modified Dricus Du Plessis 2207.53 +90.93 62.79%
Glicko-1 Dricus Du Plessis 2282.76 +117.22 66.26%
WHR Dricus Du Plessis 2108.87 +37.77 55.41%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Israel Adesanya 343, Dricus Du Plessis 210
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 4 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Flyweight (125)
[#6] Kai Kara-France (24-11-0, +185) vs. [#7] Steve Erceg (12-2-0, -230)
Kai Kara-France is the All-Time #22 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Steve Erceg is the All-Time #49 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Kai Kara-France (1-2-0)
2023-06-03: L vs. [#5FLY] Amir Albazi (17-1-0) via SD (48-47, 48-47, 47-48)
2022-07-30: L vs. [#3FLY] Brandon Moreno (21-8-2) via TKO (Body Kick and Punches) in 4:34 of round 3
2022-03-26: W vs. [#14FLY] Askar Askarov (15-1-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Steve Erceg (2-1-0)
2024-05-04: L vs. [#1FLY/#3DD/#2P4P] Alexandre Pantoja (28-5-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
2024-03-02: W vs. [#66FLY] Matt Schnell (16-9-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:26 of round 2
2023-11-11: W vs. [#46FLY] Alessandro Costa (14-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Steve Erceg -230 66.51%
Elo K170 Kai Kara-France 1758.95 +13.33 51.92%
Elo Modified Kai Kara-France 1789.53 +63.05 58.98%
Glicko-1 Kai Kara-France 1860.60 +103.35 64.45%
WHR Kai Kara-France 1769.69 +36.26 55.20%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kai Kara-France 441, Steve Erceg 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#6] Mateusz Gamrot (24-2-0, -287) vs. [#17] Dan Hooker (23-12-0, +226)
Mateusz Gamrot is the All-Time #41 ranked Lightweight fighter.
Dan Hooker is the All-Time #48 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Mateusz Gamrot (3-0-0)
2024-03-09: W vs. [#23WW] Rafael dos Anjos (32-16-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2023-09-23: W vs. [#10LW] Rafael Fiziev (12-3-0) via TKO (Knee Injury) in 2:03 of round 2
2023-03-04: W vs. [#15LW] Jalin Turner (14-8-0) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Dan Hooker (2-1-0)
2023-07-08: W vs. [#15LW] Jalin Turner (14-8-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-11-12: W vs. [#88LW] Claudio Puelles (12-5-0) via TKO (Body Kick) in 4:06 of round 2
2022-03-19: L vs. [#7FW] Arnold Allen (20-3-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 2:33 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Mateusz Gamrot -287 70.74%
Elo K170 Mateusz Gamrot 2175.49 +189.13 74.81%
Elo Modified Mateusz Gamrot 2124.08 +193.75 75.31%
Glicko-1 Mateusz Gamrot 2191.11 +253.05 81.10%
WHR Mateusz Gamrot 2061.85 +223.97 78.40%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mateusz Gamrot 161, Dan Hooker 406
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#12] Jairzinho Rozenstruik (14-5-0, -200) vs. [#14] Tai Tuivasa (14-7-0, +163)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik is the All-Time #45 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Tai Tuivasa is the All-Time #49 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jairzinho Rozenstruik (2-1-0)
2024-03-02: W vs. [#30HW+] Shamil Gaziev (13-1-0) via TKO (Retirement) in 5:00 of round 4
2023-05-13: L vs. [#8HW+] Jailton Almeida (21-3-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:43 of round 1
2022-12-10: W vs. [#33HW+] Chris Daukaus (12-7-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:23 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Tai Tuivasa (0-3-0)
2024-03-16: L vs. [#13HW+] Marcin Tybura (25-9-0) via Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:08 of round 1
2023-09-09: L vs. [#3HW+] Alexander Volkov (38-10-0) via Submission (Ezekiel Choke) in 4:37 of round 2
2022-12-03: L vs. [#5HW+] Sergei Pavlovich (18-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:54 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jairzinho Rozenstruik -200 63.68%
Elo K170 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 1828.30 +130.09 67.89%
Elo Modified Jairzinho Rozenstruik 1832.08 +98.19 63.77%
Glicko-1 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 1895.85 +152.59 70.65%
WHR Jairzinho Rozenstruik 1816.11 +195.80 75.53%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jairzinho Rozenstruik 168, Tai Tuivasa 154
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Jairzinho Rozenstruik leads 3-2
.

Welterweight (170)
[*] Jingliang Li (19-8-0, +220) vs. [#70] Carlos Prates (20-6-0, -278)

Last 3 Fights: Jingliang Li (1-2-0)
2022-09-10: L vs. [#42WW] Daniel Rodriguez (17-5-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)
2022-07-16: W vs. [#39WW] Muslim Salikhov (20-5-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 4:38 of round 2
2021-10-30: L vs. [#4MW] Khamzat Chimaev (13-0-0) via Technical Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:16 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Carlos Prates (3-0-0)
2024-06-08: W vs. [#198WW] Charlie Radtke (9-4-0) via KO (Knee to the Body) in 4:47 of round 1
2024-02-10: W vs. [#148WW] Trevin Giles (16-6-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:03 of round 2
2023-08-29: W vs. [#262LW] Mitch Ramirez (8-2-0) via TKO (Punch) in 1:14 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Carlos Prates -278 70.17%
Elo K170 Jingliang Li 1847.96 +32.95 54.73%
Elo Modified Jingliang Li 1899.99 +71.88 60.20%
Glicko-1 Jingliang Li 1991.28 +84.07 61.87%
WHR Carlos Prates 1864.61 +47.40 56.78%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jingliang Li 707, Carlos Prates 70
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#87] Junior Tafa (5-2-0, -110) vs. [#112] Valter Walker (11-1-0, -111)

Last 3 Fights: Junior Tafa (1-2-0)
2024-02-17: L vs. [#24HW+] Marcos Rogerio de Lima (22-9-1) via TKO (Leg Kick and Punches) in 1:14 of round 2
2023-08-26: W vs. [#127HW+] Parker Porter (13-9-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:24 of round 1
2023-04-22: L vs. [#101HW+] Mohammed Usman (10-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Valter Walker (2-1-0)
2024-04-06: L vs. [#111HW+] Lukasz Brzeski (9-5-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-06-02: W vs. [#117HW+] Alex Nicholson (19-11-0) via TKO (Retirement) in 0:50 of round 4
2023-05-03: W vs. [#334MW] Cassio Oliveira (22-16-1) via KO in 1:47 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Valter Walker -111 50.10%
Elo K170 Valter Walker 1448.46 +54.72 57.81%
Elo Modified Valter Walker 1474.57 +5.18 50.75%
Glicko-1 Valter Walker 1495.54 +95.39 63.39%
WHR Valter Walker 1469.74 +103.20 64.43%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Junior Tafa 182, Valter Walker 133
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#112] Joshua Culibao (12-3-1, -174) vs. [#179] Ricardo Ramos (16-6-0, +143)

Last 3 Fights: Joshua Culibao (1-2-0)
2024-03-16: L vs. [#102FW] Danny Silva (9-1-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-07-22: L vs. [#18FW] Lerone Murphy (14-0-1) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-26)
2023-02-11: W vs. [#171FW] Melsik Baghdasaryan (8-2-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:02 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Ricardo Ramos (1-2-0)
2024-03-23: L vs. [#88FW] Julian Erosa (30-11-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:15 of round 1
2023-09-23: L vs. [#70FW] Charles Jourdain (15-8-1) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:12 of round 1
2022-06-18: W vs. [*] Danny Chavez (11-5-1) via KO (Spinning Back Elbow) in 1:12 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Joshua Culibao -174 60.67%
Elo K170 Joshua Culibao 1511.17 +39.76 55.70%
Elo Modified Joshua Culibao 1562.22 +53.79 57.68%
Glicko-1 Joshua Culibao 1558.16 +73.89 60.48%
WHR Joshua Culibao 1518.35 +24.46 53.52%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Joshua Culibao 154, Ricardo Ramos 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Flyweight (125)
[#27] Luana Santos (8-1-0, -144) vs. [#32] Casey ONeill (9-2-0, +120)

Last 3 Fights: Luana Santos (3-0-0)
2024-07-13: W vs. [#97FLY] Mariya Agapova (10-5-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:27 of round 1
2023-12-09: W vs. [#46BW] Stephanie Egger (8-5-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2023-08-12: W vs. [#101FLY] Juliana Miller (3-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:41 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Casey ONeill (1-2-0)
2023-12-16: L vs. [#19FLY] Ariane Lipski (17-9-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 1:18 of round 2
2023-03-18: L vs. [#8BW] Jennifer Maia (22-10-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2022-02-12: W vs. [*] Roxanne Modafferi (25-20-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Luana Santos -144 56.49%
Elo K170 Luana Santos 1480.13 +46.28 56.62%
Elo Modified Luana Santos 1547.99 +90.80 62.78%
Glicko-1 Luana Santos 1535.24 +122.49 66.93%
WHR Luana Santos 1465.77 +107.74 65.03%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Luana Santos 35, Casey ONeill 245
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#154] Jack Jenkins (12-3-0, -588) vs. [#464] Herbert Burns (11-5-0, +410)

Last 3 Fights: Jack Jenkins (2-1-0)
2023-09-09: L vs. [#30FW] Jose Mariscal (17-6-0) via TKO (Arm Injury) in 3:19 of round 2
2023-06-24: W vs. [#155FW] Jamall Emmers (20-8-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 27-30)
2023-02-11: W vs. [#602LW] Don Shainis (15-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Herbert Burns (0-3-0)
2024-03-30: L vs. [#100FW] Julio Arce (19-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:00 of round 2
2022-07-16: L vs. [#87FW] Bill Algeo (18-9-0) via TKO (Retirement) in 1:50 of round 2
2020-08-15: L vs. [#74FW] Daniel Pineda (28-16-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 4:37 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jack Jenkins -588 81.33%
Elo K170 Jack Jenkins 1573.46 +59.56 58.49%
Elo Modified Jack Jenkins 1561.73 +4.72 50.68%
Glicko-1 Jack Jenkins 1559.39 +12.06 51.74%
WHR Jack Jenkins 1503.53 +13.37 51.92%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jack Jenkins 343, Herbert Burns 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#206] Tom Nolan (7-1-0, -1185) vs. [#1696] Alex Reyes (13-4-0, +672)

Last 3 Fights: Tom Nolan (2-1-0)
2024-05-18: W vs. [#472LW] Victor Martinez (13-6-0) via TKO (Knee to the Body and Punches) in 3:50 of round 1
2024-01-13: L vs. [#144LW] Nikolas Motta (14-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:03 of round 1
2023-08-08: W vs. [#177FW] Bogdan Grad (13-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:23 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Alex Reyes (1-2-0)
2023-09-16: L vs. [#178LW] Charlie Campbell (9-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:38 of round 1
2017-09-16: L vs. [*] Mike Perry (14-8-0) via KO (Knee) in 1:19 of round 1
2017-08-24: W vs. [*] Gil Guardado (5-4-0) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 1:06 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Tom Nolan -1185 87.68%
Elo K170 Tom Nolan 1540.08 +114.10 65.85%
Elo Modified Tom Nolan 1583.24 +129.37 67.80%
Glicko-1 Tom Nolan 1554.48 +52.74 57.53%
WHR Tom Nolan 1469.21 +141.51 69.31%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Tom Nolan 91, Alex Reyes 336
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#136] Ricky Glenn (22-8-2, +187) vs. [#173WW] Kenan Song (21-8-0, -234)

Last 3 Fights: Ricky Glenn (0-2-1)
2023-10-07: L vs. [#51LW] Drew Dober (27-14-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:36 of round 1
2023-04-22: L vs. [#126LW] Christos Giagos (20-12-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:35 of round 1
2021-10-23: D vs. [#22LW] Grant Dawson (21-2-1) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Kenan Song (1-2-0)
2023-12-09: L vs. [#106WW] Kevin Jousset (10-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-08-26: W vs. [#345LW] Rolando Bedoya (14-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-03-04: L vs. [#7WW] Ian Garry (15-0-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:22 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Kenan Song -234 66.78%
Elo K170 Ricky Glenn 1609.68 +130.17 67.90%
Elo Modified Ricky Glenn 1581.41 +61.37 58.74%
Glicko-1 Ricky Glenn 1578.82 +40.32 55.78%
WHR Ricky Glenn 1490.03 +31.92 54.58%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ricky Glenn 315, Kenan Song 252
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Flyweight (125)
[#88] Jesus Santos Aguilar (10-2-0, +180) vs. [#168] Stewart Nicoll (8-0-0, -223)

Last 3 Fights: Jesus Santos Aguilar (2-1-0)
2024-02-24: W vs. [#169FLY] Mateus Mendonca (10-3-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-07-08: W vs. [#549FLY] Shannon Ross (12-9-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:17 of round 1
2023-02-04: L vs. [#8FLY] Tatsuro Taira (16-0-0) via Submission (Triangle Armbar) in 4:20 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Stewart Nicoll (3-0-0)
2024-03-09: W vs. [#1446FLY] Issei Kitano (5-1-0) via TKO in 4:45 of round 1
2023-09-16: W vs. [#427FLY] Dansheel Moodley (8-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:24 of round 1
2023-03-04: W vs. [*] Scott Eclavea (3-4-0) via TKO (Strikes) in 4:44 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Stewart Nicoll -223 65.90%
Elo K170 Jesus Santos Aguilar 1601.82 +133.22 68.28%
Elo Modified Jesus Santos Aguilar 1550.76 +17.91 52.58%
Glicko-1 Jesus Santos Aguilar 1573.64 +41.81 55.99%
WHR Stewart Nicoll 1486.30 +0.81 50.12%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jesus Santos Aguilar 175, Stewart Nicoll 161
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
– Implied probability (odds) listed is not the pure mathematical conversion, but the fighters’ share of the combined probability (both added = 100%).
 



Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Israel Adesanya
Highest Stored DD Rating: Israel Adesanya
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Israel Adesanya vs. Dricus Du Plessis
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Israel Adesanya vs. Dricus Du Plessis
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Outstanding [****½]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Moderate [***]
Run Date: 2024-8-11

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