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Fight Matrix

Fight Matrix Program – UFC 306: O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili (09-07-2024)

Posted on September 9, 2024 by Jason

Bantamweight Championship (135)
[#1/#5DD/#8P4P] Sean OMalley (18-1-0, -119) vs. [#2/#9P4P] Merab Dvalishvili (17-4-0, -102)
Sean OMalley is the All-Time #8 ranked Bantamweight fighter.
Merab Dvalishvili is the All-Time #14 ranked Bantamweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Sean OMalley (3-0-0)
2024-03-09: W vs. [#10BW] Marlon Vera (24-10-1) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-44)
2023-08-19: W vs. [#4FW] Aljamain Sterling (24-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:51 of round 2
2022-10-22: W vs. [#5BW] Petr Yan (17-5-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Merab Dvalishvili (3-0-0)
2024-02-17: W vs. [#6BW] Henry Cejudo (16-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-03-11: W vs. [#5BW] Petr Yan (17-5-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2022-08-20: W vs. [#7BW] Jose Aldo (32-8-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Sean OMalley -119 51.83%
Elo K170 Merab Dvalishvili 2264.39 +68.02 59.67%
Elo Modified Merab Dvalishvili 2239.06 +113.15 65.73%
Glicko-1 Merab Dvalishvili 2315.91 +100.11 64.02%
WHR Merab Dvalishvili 2112.02 +65.87 59.37%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sean OMalley 189, Merab Dvalishvili 210
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Women Flyweight Championship (125)
[#2/#7DD/#4P4P] Alexa Grasso (16-3-1, -115) vs. [#3/#6P4P] Valentina Shevchenko (23-4-1, -106)
Alexa Grasso is the All-Time #23 ranked Women’s fighter.
Valentina Shevchenko is the All-Time #3 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Alexa Grasso (2-0-1)
2023-09-16: D vs. [#3FLY/#6P4P] Valentina Shevchenko (23-4-1) via Draw (Split) in 5:00 of round 5
2023-03-04: W vs. [#3FLY/#6P4P] Valentina Shevchenko (23-4-1) via Submission (Face Crank) in 4:34 of round 4
2022-10-15: W vs. [#12FLY] Viviane Araujo (12-6-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Valentina Shevchenko (1-1-1)
2023-09-16: D vs. [#2FLY/#7DD/#4P4P] Alexa Grasso (16-3-1) via Draw (Split) in 5:00 of round 5
2023-03-04: L vs. [#2FLY/#7DD/#4P4P] Alexa Grasso (16-3-1) via Submission (Face Crank) in 4:34 of round 4
2022-06-11: W vs. [#6FLY] Taila Santos (22-3-0) via SD (49-46, 48-47, 47-48)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Alexa Grasso -115 50.96%
Elo K170 Valentina Shevchenko 1891.71 +8.87 51.28%
Elo Modified Alexa Grasso 1869.75 +7.59 51.09%
Glicko-1 Alexa Grasso 1884.97 +20.41 52.94%
WHR Alexa Grasso 1828.75 +22.24 53.19%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexa Grasso 364, Valentina Shevchenko 364
Previous Match-up Record: Alexa Grasso leads 1-0-1
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#5] Brian Ortega (16-3-0, +150) vs. [#14] Diego Lopes (25-6-0, -182)
Brian Ortega is the All-Time #11 ranked Featherweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Brian Ortega (1-2-0)
2024-02-24: W vs. [#6FW] Yair Rodriguez (19-5-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 0:58 of round 3
2022-07-16: L vs. [#6FW] Yair Rodriguez (19-5-0) via TKO (Shoulder Injury) in 4:11 of round 1
2021-09-25: L vs. [#3FW/#9DD] Alexander Volkanovski (26-4-0) via UD (50-44, 50-45, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Diego Lopes (3-0-0)
2024-06-29: W vs. [#20FW] Dan Ige (18-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-04-13: W vs. [#49FW] Sodiq Yusuff (13-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:29 of round 1
2023-11-11: W vs. [#77FW] Pat Sabatini (18-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:30 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Diego Lopes -182 61.73%
Elo K170 Brian Ortega 2101.94 +159.82 71.51%
Elo Modified Brian Ortega 2058.56 +111.04 65.46%
Glicko-1 Brian Ortega 2118.05 +100.55 64.08%
WHR Brian Ortega 1969.36 +100.17 64.03%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brian Ortega 203, Diego Lopes 77
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#64] Daniel Zellhuber (15-1-0, -222) vs. [#108] Esteban Ribovics (13-1-0, +181)

Last 3 Fights: Daniel Zellhuber (3-0-0)
2024-02-24: W vs. [#192LW] Francisco Prado (13-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2023-09-16: W vs. [#136LW] Christos Giagos (20-12-0) via Submission (Anaconda Choke) in 3:26 of round 2
2023-04-15: W vs. [*] Lando Vannata (12-7-2) via UD (29-27, 29-28, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Esteban Ribovics (2-1-0)
2024-05-11: W vs. [#195LW] Terrance McKinney (15-7-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 0:37 of round 1
2023-07-08: W vs. [#414LW] Kamuela Kirk (12-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-03-04: L vs. [#70LW] Loik Radzhabov (19-6-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Daniel Zellhuber -222 65.95%
Elo K170 Daniel Zellhuber 1800.20 +90.80 62.78%
Elo Modified Daniel Zellhuber 1819.06 +83.48 61.79%
Glicko-1 Daniel Zellhuber 1862.57 +68.46 59.73%
WHR Esteban Ribovics 1709.85 +4.24 50.61%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Daniel Zellhuber 203, Esteban Ribovics 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Flyweight (125)
[#60] Ronaldo Rodriguez (18-2-0) vs. [#105] Ode Osbourne (12-7-0)

Last 3 Fights: Ronaldo Rodriguez (3-0-0)
2024-02-24: W vs. [#429FLY] Denys Bondar (19-5-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:59 of round 2
2023-05-19: W vs. [#775FW] Angel Rodriguez (14-15-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 1:00 of round 3
2022-12-09: W vs. [*] Jaime Londono (7-3-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:17 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Ode Osbourne (1-2-0)
2024-03-16: L vs. [#45FLY] Jafel Filho (16-3-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:27 of round 1
2023-08-05: L vs. [#14FLY] Asu Almabaev (20-2-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:11 of round 2
2023-02-25: W vs. [#15FLY] Charles Johnson (16-6-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Elo K170 Ronaldo Rodriguez 1623.05 +184.55 74.32%
Elo Modified Ronaldo Rodriguez 1591.13 +180.66 73.88%
Glicko-1 Ronaldo Rodriguez 1633.03 +235.46 79.50%
WHR Ronaldo Rodriguez 1527.25 +143.29 69.53%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ronaldo Rodriguez 203, Ode Osbourne 182
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Ode Osbourne leads 1-0
.

Women Bantamweight (135)
[#3] Irene Aldana (15-7-0, -132) vs. [#4] Norma Dumont (11-2-0, +109)

Last 3 Fights: Irene Aldana (2-1-0)
2023-12-16: W vs. [#10BW] Karol Rosa (18-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-06-10: L vs. [*] Amanda Nunes (23-5-0) via UD (50-44, 50-44, 50-43)
2022-09-10: W vs. [#6BW] Macy Chiasson (10-3-0) via KO (Upkick to the Body) in 2:21 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Norma Dumont (3-0-0)
2024-04-06: W vs. [#16BW] Germaine de Randamie (10-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-07-15: W vs. [#14FW] Chelsea Chandler (6-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-04-22: W vs. [#10BW] Karol Rosa (18-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Irene Aldana -132 54.31%
Elo K170 Norma Dumont 1744.90 +17.54 52.52%
Elo Modified Norma Dumont 1777.61 +51.14 57.31%
Glicko-1 Norma Dumont 1739.39 +27.95 54.01%
WHR Irene Aldana 1680.98 +26.23 53.77%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Irene Aldana 273, Norma Dumont 161
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Irene Aldana leads 2-1
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#68LW] Ignacio Bahamondes (16-5-0, -118) vs. [#93LW] Manuel Torres (15-2-0, -103)

Last 3 Fights: Ignacio Bahamondes (2-1-0)
2024-04-06: W vs. [#136LW] Christos Giagos (20-12-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 3:34 of round 1
2023-08-05: L vs. [#40LW] Ludovit Klein (22-4-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2023-04-08: W vs. [#47LW] Trey Ogden (18-6-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Manuel Torres (3-0-0)
2024-02-24: W vs. [#203LW] Chris Duncan (11-2-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:46 of round 1
2023-06-17: W vs. [#150LW] Nikolas Motta (14-5-0) via KO (Elbow) in 1:50 of round 1
2022-05-14: W vs. [*] Frank Camacho (22-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:27 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ignacio Bahamondes -118 51.61%
Elo K170 Manuel Torres 1744.49 +26.94 53.87%
Elo Modified Manuel Torres 1725.66 +7.90 51.14%
Glicko-1 Ignacio Bahamondes 1780.00 +0.60 50.09%
WHR Manuel Torres 1724.22 +4.34 50.62%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ignacio Bahamondes 161, Manuel Torres 203
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Strawweight (115)
[#25] Yazmin Jauregui (11-1-0, -486) vs. [#42] Ketlen Souza (14-4-0, +357)

Last 3 Fights: Yazmin Jauregui (2-1-0)
2024-02-24: W vs. [#28SW] Sam Hughes (9-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-07-08: L vs. [#17SW] Denise Gomes (9-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:20 of round 1
2022-12-03: W vs. [#161SW] Istela Nunes (6-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:06 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Ketlen Souza (2-1-0)
2024-04-27: W vs. [#119SW] Marnic Mann (6-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-06-03: L vs. [#11FLY] Karine Silva (17-4-0) via Submission (Kneebar) in 1:45 of round 1
2023-01-18: W vs. [#73FLY] Kristina Williams (7-4-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 48-47)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Yazmin Jauregui -486 79.12%
Elo K170 Yazmin Jauregui 1528.24 +75.97 60.76%
Elo Modified Yazmin Jauregui 1557.92 +90.84 62.78%
Glicko-1 Yazmin Jauregui 1538.24 +104.47 64.60%
WHR Yazmin Jauregui 1483.33 +78.91 61.17%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Yazmin Jauregui 203, Ketlen Souza 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Flyweight (125)
[#34] Joshua Van (10-2-0, -207) vs. [#145] Edgar Chairez (11-5-0, +171)

Last 3 Fights: Joshua Van (2-1-0)
2024-07-13: L vs. [#15FLY] Charles Johnson (16-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:20 of round 3
2024-01-13: W vs. [#79FLY] Felipe Bunes (13-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:31 of round 2
2023-11-11: W vs. [#146FLY] Kevin Borjas (9-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Edgar Chairez (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2024-02-24: W vs. [#494FLY] Daniel da Silva (12-6-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 2:17 of round 1
2023-09-16: NC vs. [#494FLY] Daniel da Silva (12-6-0)
2023-07-08: L vs. [#7FLY] Tatsuro Taira (16-0-0) via UD (29-27, 29-27, 29-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Joshua Van -207 64.63%
Elo K170 Joshua Van 1578.95 +159.45 71.46%
Elo Modified Joshua Van 1554.39 +127.88 67.61%
Glicko-1 Joshua Van 1611.67 +142.46 69.43%
WHR Joshua Van 1454.28 +10.80 51.55%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Joshua Van 63, Edgar Chairez 203
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#160] Raul Rosas Jr. (9-1-0, -739) vs. [#182] Qileng Aori (27-11-0, +498)

Last 3 Fights: Raul Rosas Jr. (2-1-0)
2024-06-08: W vs. [#573BW] Ricky Turcios (12-4-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:22 of round 2
2023-09-16: W vs. [#683BW] Terrence Mitchell (15-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:54 of round 1
2023-04-08: L vs. [#184FW] Christian Rodriguez (11-2-0) via UD (29-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Qileng Aori (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2024-02-10: NC vs. [#27BW] Daniel Marcos (16-0-0)
2023-10-07: W vs. [#206BW] Johnny Munoz Jr. (13-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-06-10: L vs. [#52BW] Aiemann Zahabi (11-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:04 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Raul Rosas Jr. -739 84.04%
Elo K170 Raul Rosas Jr. 1551.79 +45.07 56.45%
Elo Modified Raul Rosas Jr. 1554.85 +33.72 54.84%
Glicko-1 Raul Rosas Jr. 1567.20 +45.24 56.47%
WHR Raul Rosas Jr. 1484.83 +28.39 54.08%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Raul Rosas Jr. 98, Qileng Aori 217
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
– Implied probability (odds) listed is not the pure mathematical conversion, but the fighters’ share of the combined probability (both added = 100%).
 



Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Sean OMalley
Highest Stored DD Rating: Sean OMalley
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Sean OMalley vs. Merab Dvalishvili
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Sean OMalley vs. Merab Dvalishvili
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Outstanding [****½]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Large [***½]
Run Date: 2024-9-8

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