Heavyweight Championship (265)
[#1/#2DD] Junior dos Santos (15-1-0, 239.0lb) vs. [#2/#8DD] Cain Velasquez (10-1-0, 240.0lb)
Junior dos Santos is the All-Time #5 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Cain Velasquez is the All-Time #7 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Junior dos Santos (3-0-0)
2012-05-26: W vs. [#6HW+] Frank Mir (16-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:04 of round 2
2011-11-12: W vs. [#2HW+/#8DD] Cain Velasquez (10-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:04 of round 1
2011-06-11: W vs. [*] Shane Carwin (12-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)

Last 3 Fights: Cain Velasquez (2-1-0)
2012-05-26: W vs. [#7HW+] Antonio Silva (17-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:36 of round 1
2011-11-12: L vs. [#1HW+/#2DD] Junior dos Santos (15-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:04 of round 1
2010-10-23: W vs. [*] Brock Lesnar (5-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:12 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Junior dos Santos 217, Cain Velasquez 217
Previous Match-up Record: Junior dos Santos leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#17] Jim Miller (21-4-0, 156.0lb) vs. [#18] Joe Lauzon (22-7-0, 156.0lb)
Jim Miller is the All-Time #22 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jim Miller (1-2-0)
2012-05-05: L vs. [#5LW] Nate Diaz (16-8-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:09 of round 2
2012-01-20: W vs. [#32LW] Melvin Guillard (30-12-2) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:04 of round 1
2011-08-14: L vs. [#1LW/#5DD] Ben Henderson (18-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Joe Lauzon (2-1-0)
2012-08-04: W vs. [#52LW] Jamie Varner (20-7-1) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 2:44 of round 3
2012-02-26: L vs. [#12LW] Anthony Pettis (15-2-0) via KO (Head Kick and Punches) in 1:21 of round 1
2011-10-08: W vs. [#32LW] Melvin Guillard (30-12-2) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 0:47 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jim Miller 238, Joe Lauzon 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#6] Tim Boetsch (16-4-0, 186.0lb) vs. [#22] Constantinos Philippou (11-2-0, 186.0lb)

Last 3 Fights: Tim Boetsch (3-0-0)
2012-07-21: W vs. [#7MW] Hector Lombard (32-3-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2012-02-26: W vs. [#16MW] Yushin Okami (27-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:54 of round 3
2011-09-24: W vs. [#35MW] Nick Ring (13-1-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Constantinos Philippou (3-0-0)
2012-07-07: W vs. [#52MW] Riki Fukuda (19-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2012-03-03: W vs. [#68MW] Court McGee (14-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-12-10: W vs. [#123MW] Jared Hamman (13-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:11 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Tim Boetsch 161, Constantinos Philippou 175
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Keep Reading

This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds.  Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:

1. System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
2. System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity.
3. Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
4. Notable home advantage.
5. System inability to project style differences.
6. System inability to factor in bad judging decisions.

But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense.  We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t.  For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant.  Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.

Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money.  So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above. I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses (except for when Leonard Garcia is involved for #6) — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.

The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

Ratings vs. Odds

Now, to the results — given the odds above:

The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet.

There are two favorites worth backing: Guillard and Perez.  Guillard is worth a very small bet, while Perez looks like good parlay material.  He’s got a tremendous rating advantage over his opponent.

This leaves FIVE underdogs worth considering:

De Fries vs. Duffee – This one is worth a very small flier at best.  Duffee is the ratings favorite, but the rating difference suggests Duffee projects to approximately a -160 favorite, not a -300 one.

Lauzon vs. Miller – A “dead even” fight by FightMatrix standards, so it’s worth taking a chance on Lauzon who is about a 2-to-1 underdog right now.

Belcher vs. Okami – Okami is a guy that the system has always shown a relative dislike for.  Take that with a grain of salt and pass, or ride with Belcher for a moderate bet, even if he becomes a very slight favorite.

Cariaso vs. Moraga – Cariaso recently dropped from Bantam and took his points with him.  If the weight comes off easily, he makes a fairly strong underdog bet.

Boetsch vs. Philippou – Though helped just a bit by his questionable decision win over Lombard, he looks to be the most solid underdog bet of the bunch.

This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds.  Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:

1. System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
2. System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity.
3. Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
4. Notable home advantage.
5. System inability to project style differences.
6. System inability to factor in bad judging decisions.

But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense.  We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t.  For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant.  Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.

Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money.  So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above. I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.

The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

Ratings vs. Odds

Now, to the results — given the odds above:

The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical, so neither fighter is a good bet or there are too many gotchas.

There is just one favorite worth backing:

The Waldburger bet is marked because the ratings difference agrees with the odds, but to a larger degree.   The odds appear way off on this one, unless Catone is a completely different fighter at the new weight.

This leaves three underdogs worth considering:

Cofer vs. Rio – Definitely the weakest play of the three.   If Rio drops below -155 or so, this one becomes a PASS.  Very small play here.

Head vs. Pyle – The system loves Head for his split over Ebersole and while Pyle is justifiably the favorite, at -217, he seems to be too strong of a favorite.

Barry vs. del Rosario – The strongest of the three underdogs worth a play.

Heavyweight (265)
[#12] Roy Nelson (17-7-0) vs. [#28] Matt Mitrione (5-1-0)

Last 3 Fights: Roy Nelson (2-1-0)
2012-05-26: W vs. [#48HW+] Dave Herman (21-5-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:51 of round 1
2012-02-04: L vs. [#5HW+] Fabricio Werdum (16-5-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2011-10-29: W vs. [#50HW+] Mirko Filipovic (27-10-2) via TKO (Punches) in 1:30 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Matt Mitrione (2-1-0)
2011-10-29: L vs. [#14HW+] Cheick Kongo (18-7-2) via UD (30-27, 29-27, 29-28)
2011-06-26: W vs. [#141HW+] Christian Morecraft (7-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:28 of round 2
2011-01-22: W vs. [#101HW+] Tim Hague (14-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:59 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Roy Nelson 203, Matt Mitrione 413
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#166LW] Mike Ricci (7-2-0) vs. [#1572] Colton Smith (3-1-0)

Last 3 Fights: Mike Ricci (2-1-0)
2012-03-17: W vs. [#212LW] Tony Hervey (15-13-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2011-10-21: L vs. [#69LW] Daron Cruickshank (12-2-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)
2011-04-09: W vs. [#46LW] Jesse Ronson (12-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:12 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Colton Smith (2-1-0)
2012-02-24: L vs. [#959WW] Steve Montgomery (3-1-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:08 of round 2
2011-10-29: W vs. [NA] Walter Coles (0-1-0) via Submission (Punches) in 1:52 of round 1
2011-03-25: W vs. [#986WW] Brian Nielson (3-2-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:19 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mike Ricci 273, Colton Smith 295
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[#53] Pat Barry (7-5-0) vs. [#73] Shane del Rosario (11-1-0)

Last 3 Fights: Pat Barry (1-2-0)
2012-05-05: L vs. [#35HW+] Lavar Johnson (17-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:38 of round 1
2012-01-20: W vs. [#141HW+] Christian Morecraft (7-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:38 of round 1
2011-10-01: L vs. [#10HW+] Stefan Struve (25-5-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 3:22 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Shane del Rosario (2-1-0)
2012-05-26: L vs. [#24HW+] Stipe Miocic (9-1-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 3:14 of round 2
2011-02-12: W vs. [#35HW+] Lavar Johnson (17-6-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:31 of round 1
2010-07-23: W vs. [#321HW+] Lolohea Mahe (6-2-1) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 3:48 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Pat Barry 224, Shane del Rosario 203
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Shane del Rosario leads 1-0
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Lightweight (155)
[*] George Sotiropoulos (14-4-0) vs. [#30FW] Ross Pearson (13-6-0)

Last 3 Fights: George Sotiropoulos (1-2-0)
2011-07-02: L vs. [#9LW] Rafael dos Anjos (18-6-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:59 of round 1
2011-02-27: L vs. [#3FW] Dennis Siver (21-8-0) via UD (29-28, 30-28, 30-27)
2010-11-20: W vs. [#18LW] Joe Lauzon (22-7-0) via Submission (Kimura) in 2:43 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Ross Pearson (1-2-0)
2012-06-22: L vs. [#7FW] Cub Swanson (18-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:14 of round 2
2011-12-30: W vs. [#44FW] Junior Assuncao (13-5-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-08-27: L vs. [#86LW] Edson Barboza (10-1-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: George Sotiropoulos 531, Ross Pearson 175
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Ross Pearson leads 1-0
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Middleweight (185)
[#9] Hector Lombard (31-3-1) vs. [#25] Rousimar Palhares (14-4-0)
Hector Lombard is the All-Time #20 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Hector Lombard (2-1-0)
2012-07-21: L vs. [#6MW] Tim Boetsch (16-4-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2011-11-19: W vs. [#44HW+] Trevor Prangley (26-9-1) via TKO (Punches) in 1:06 of round 2
2011-09-03: W vs. [#41WW] Jesse Taylor (23-9-0) via Submission (Heel Hook) in 1:26 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Rousimar Palhares (2-1-0)
2012-05-05: L vs. [#7MW] Alan Belcher (18-6-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 4:18 of round 1
2012-01-14: W vs. [#206MW] Mike Massenzio (13-8-0) via Submission (Heel Hook) in 1:03 of round 1
2011-08-27: W vs. [#47WW] Dan Miller (14-6-0) via UD (29-27, 30-27, 30-25)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Hector Lombard 146, Rousimar Palhares 223
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#192] Robert Whittaker (9-2-0) vs. [#284] Brad Scott (8-1-0)

Last 3 Fights: Robert Whittaker (2-1-0)
2012-05-18: L vs. [#92WW] Jesse Juarez (18-8-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 48-47)
2012-03-23: W vs. [#704WW] Shaun Spooner (8-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:01 of round 1
2011-12-09: W vs. [#404WW] Ian Bone (10-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:15 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Brad Scott (3-0-0)
2012-03-16: W vs. [#759WW] Mok Rahman (8-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:45 of round 3
2011-07-23: W vs. [NA] Gareth Williams (4-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:16 of round 1
2010-07-17: W vs. [#817LW] David Round (6-8-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 0:00 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Robert Whittaker 210, Brad Scott 273
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Keep Reading

You may have seen our previous articles of “Odds vs. Ratings” for UFC 152 and 153, that we created post-event.  It basically compared the odds difference to the ratings difference to see what was “closer” to the actual result.  This time, I thought we’d come out with it pre-event.

Either way, this is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds.  Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up such as:

1. System inability to project the exact effects of a divisional change.
2. System inability to project the exact effects of inactivity.
3. Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
4. System inability to project style differences.
5. System inability to factor in bad judging decisions.

But this stuff (especially #4) is pretty much common sense.  We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #4 and #5 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t.

Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money.  So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-3 that I listed above. I’ll leave #4 and #5 to the fully subjective analyses — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

Ratings vs. Odds

1 – Inactivity

So, this ended up to be quite a boring one.  No divisional moves, only one bout of recent inactivity (though I was close to noting it for Swick, even though he has had a fight since his inactive stint).  Not only that, but the betting odds are awfully sound in comparison to the ratings.

The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical, so neither fighter is a good bet.

The Siver, Means, Henderson and Jorgensen bets are marked because the ratings difference agrees with the odds, but to a larger degree.

This leaves four underdogs worth considering:

• Edwards vs. Stephens – This was very nearly a “PASS”, but the 1.27x rating difference suggests Stephens is closer to a -150 favorite, so this one may be worth looking at for a VERY small bet.
• Assuncao vs. Easton – The ratings favor Assuncao, but only slightly.  Although still relatively new to 135, he has had two fairly decent wins.  If he doesn’t look bad on the scales, this one is worth a shot.
• Penn vs. Macdonald – There’s a “gotcha” here — Penn’s inactivity.  Still, with that considered, we find him a good bet.  I won’t argue with Macdonald being a favorite, but nearly -300 is too much.
• Rua vs. Gustafsson – Having the reach advantage is something I did not mention as a “gotcha” only because we don’t actively track this.  As in the Macdonald/Penn fight, Gustaf may have not reached his ceiling.  Still,  this is another case of the ratings disagreeing with the odds to a large extent.

Lightweight Championship (155)
[#1/#7DD] Ben Henderson (17-2-0) vs. [#4] Nate Diaz (16-7-0)
Ben Henderson is the All-Time #11 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Ben Henderson (3-0-0)
2012-08-11: W vs. [#2LW/#10DD] Frankie Edgar (14-3-1) via SD (46-49, 48-47, 48-47)
2012-02-26: W vs. [#2LW/#10DD] Frankie Edgar (14-3-1) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 49-46)
2011-11-12: W vs. [#14LW] Clay Guida (29-13-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Nate Diaz (3-0-0)
2012-05-05: W vs. [#17LW] Jim Miller (21-4-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:09 of round 2
2011-12-30: W vs. [#8LW] Donald Cerrone (19-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2011-09-24: W vs. [#29LW] Takanori Gomi (34-8-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:27 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ben Henderson 119, Nate Diaz 217
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Ben Henderson leads 4-2
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#5] Mauricio Rua (21-6-0) vs. [#9] Alexander Gustafsson (14-1-0)
Mauricio Rua is the All-Time #4 ranked Light Heavyweight and #18 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Mauricio Rua (2-1-0)
2012-08-04: W vs. [#26LHW] Brandon Vera (12-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:09 of round 4
2011-11-19: L vs. [#3LHW] Dan Henderson (29-8-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)
2011-08-27: W vs. [#8LHW] Forrest Griffin (19-7-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:53 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Alexander Gustafsson (3-0-0)
2012-04-14: W vs. [#38LHW] Thiago Silva (14-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2011-12-30: W vs. [#32LHW] Vladimir Matyushenko (26-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:13 of round 1
2011-08-06: W vs. [#20LHW] Matt Hamill (11-4-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 3:41 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mauricio Rua 126, Alexander Gustafsson 238
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#12] B.J. Penn (16-8-2) vs. [#14] Rory MacDonald (13-1-0)
B.J. Penn is the All-Time #14 ranked Welterweight and #6 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: B.J. Penn (1-1-1)
2011-10-29: L vs. [#5WW] Nick Diaz (26-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-27, 29-28)
2011-02-27: D vs. [#11WW] Jon Fitch (24-4-1) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3
2010-11-20: W vs. [*] Matt Hughes (45-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:21 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Rory MacDonald (3-0-0)
2012-04-21: W vs. [#63WW] Che Mills (15-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:20 of round 2
2011-08-06: W vs. [#16WW] Mike Pyle (23-8-1) via TKO (Punches) in 3:54 of round 1
2011-04-30: W vs. [#4LW] Nate Diaz (16-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-26)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: B.J. Penn 406, Rory MacDonald 231
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight Championship (170)
[*] Georges St. Pierre (22-2-0) vs. [#2] Carlos Condit (28-5-0)
Georges St. Pierre is the All-Time #1 ranked Welterweight and #2 ranked Absolute fighter.
Carlos Condit is the All-Time #9 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Georges St. Pierre (3-0-0)
2011-04-30: W vs. [#10MW] Jake Shields (27-6-1) via UD (50-45, 48-47, 48-47)
2010-12-11: W vs. [#8WW] Josh Koscheck (17-6-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2010-03-27: W vs. [#34WW] Dan Hardy (25-10-0) via UD (50-43, 50-44, 50-45)

Last 3 Fights: Carlos Condit (3-0-0)
2012-02-04: W vs. [#4WW] Nick Diaz (26-8-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)
2011-07-02: W vs. [#22WW] Dong Hyun Kim (16-2-1) via TKO (Flying Knee and Punches) in 2:58 of round 1
2010-10-16: W vs. [#34WW] Dan Hardy (25-10-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:27 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Georges St. Pierre 567, Carlos Condit 287
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Georges St. Pierre leads 3-2
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Welterweight (170)
[#1] Martin Kampmann (20-5-0) vs. [#5] Johny Hendricks (13-1-0)
Martin Kampmann is the All-Time #15 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Johny Hendricks is the All-Time #23 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Martin Kampmann (3-0-0)
2012-06-01: W vs. [#6WW] Jake Ellenberger (28-6-0) via TKO (Knee) in 1:40 of round 2
2012-03-03: W vs. [#31WW] Thiago Alves (19-9-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:12 of round 3
2011-11-19: W vs. [#30WW] Rick Story (14-6-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Johny Hendricks (3-0-0)
2012-05-05: W vs. [#8WW] Josh Koscheck (17-6-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2011-12-30: W vs. [#11WW] Jon Fitch (24-4-1) via KO (Punch) in 0:12 of round 1
2011-08-06: W vs. [#14WW] Mike Pierce (15-5-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Martin Kampmann 169, Johny Hendricks 196
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Martin Kampmann leads 1-0
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Middleweight (185)
[#32] Francis Carmont (19-7-0) vs. [#48] Tom Lawlor (8-4-0)

Last 3 Fights: Francis Carmont (3-0-0)
2012-07-11: W vs. [#118MW] Karlos Vemola (9-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:39 of round 2
2012-04-14: W vs. [#173MW] Magnus Cedenblad (10-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:42 of round 2
2011-10-29: W vs. [#37MW] Chris Camozzi (18-5-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Tom Lawlor (2-1-0)
2012-05-15: W vs. [#102MW] Jason MacDonald (25-16-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:50 of round 1
2011-11-19: L vs. [#3MW] Chris Weidman (9-0-0) via Technical Submission (Brabo Choke) in 2:07 of round 1
2010-10-23: W vs. [#85MW] Patrick Cote (17-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Francis Carmont 129, Tom Lawlor 186
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#1MW/#2DD] Anderson Silva (32-4-0) vs. [#26] Stephan Bonnar (15-7-0)
Anderson Silva is the All-Time #1 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Anderson Silva (3-0-0)
2012-07-07: W vs. [#2MW] Chael Sonnen (27-12-1) via TKO (Knee to the Body and Punches) in 1:55 of round 2
2011-08-27: W vs. [#16MW] Yushin Okami (27-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:04 of round 2
2011-02-05: W vs. [#5MW] Vitor Belfort (21-10-0) via KO (Front Kick and Punches) in 3:25 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Stephan Bonnar (3-0-0)
2011-11-19: W vs. [#68LHW] Kyle Kingsbury (11-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-25, 30-27)
2010-12-04: W vs. [#51LHW] Igor Pokrajac (25-9-0) via UD (29-26, 29-26, 29-26)
2010-07-03: W vs. [#65LHW] Krzysztof Soszynski (26-12-1) via TKO (Punches) in 3:08 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Anderson Silva 98, Stephan Bonnar 329
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Anderson Silva leads 2-1
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#21] Glover Teixeira (17-2-0) vs. [#96] Fabio Maldonado (18-5-0)

Last 3 Fights: Glover Teixeira (3-0-0)
2012-05-26: W vs. [#68LHW] Kyle Kingsbury (11-5-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 1:53 of round 1
2011-11-27: W vs. [#175HW+] Ricco Rodriguez (48-18-0) via Submission (Punches) in 1:58 of round 1
2011-08-25: W vs. [#78LHW] Marvin Eastman (18-14-1) via KO (Punch) in 4:00 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Fabio Maldonado (1-2-0)
2012-05-15: L vs. [#51LHW] Igor Pokrajac (25-9-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2011-06-04: L vs. [#68LHW] Kyle Kingsbury (11-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2010-10-16: W vs. [#107LHW] James McSweeney (10-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:48 of round 3

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Glover Teixeira 140, Fabio Maldonado 151
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Glover Teixeira leads 1-0
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Heavyweight (265)
[#8] Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (33-7-1) vs. [#49] Dave Herman (21-4-0)
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira is the All-Time #2 ranked Heavyweight and #5 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (1-2-0)
2011-12-10: L vs. [#6HW+] Frank Mir (16-6-0) via Technical Submission (Kimura) in 3:38 of round 1
2011-08-27: W vs. [#23HW+] Brendan Schaub (8-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:09 of round 1
2010-02-20: L vs. [#2HW+/#7DD] Cain Velasquez (10-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:20 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Dave Herman (1-2-0)
2012-05-26: L vs. [#12HW+] Roy Nelson (17-7-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:51 of round 1
2012-02-15: L vs. [#10HW+] Stefan Struve (25-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:52 of round 2
2011-06-11: W vs. [#371HW+] John Olav Einemo (6-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:19 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira 308, Dave Herman 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[#7] Antonio Silva (16-4-0) vs. [#13] Travis Browne (13-0-1)

Last 3 Fights: Antonio Silva (1-2-0)
2012-05-26: L vs. [#2HW+/#7DD] Cain Velasquez (10-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:36 of round 1
2011-09-10: L vs. [#4HW+] Daniel Cormier (10-0-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:56 of round 1
2011-02-12: W vs. [*] Fedor Emelianenko (34-4-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Travis Browne (3-0-0)
2012-04-21: W vs. [#50HW+] Chad Griggs (11-2-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 2:29 of round 1
2011-09-24: W vs. [#95HW+] Rob Broughton (15-7-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2011-05-28: W vs. [#10HW+] Stefan Struve (25-5-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:11 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Antonio Silva 132, Travis Browne 167
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#6] Jake Ellenberger (27-6-0) vs. [#16] Jay Hieron (23-5-0)
Jake Ellenberger is the All-Time #17 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jake Ellenberger (2-1-0)
2012-06-01: L vs. [#1WW] Martin Kampmann (20-5-0) via TKO (Knee) in 1:40 of round 2
2012-02-15: W vs. [#14WW] Diego Sanchez (23-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-09-17: W vs. [#7MW] Jake Shields (28-6-1) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 0:53 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Jay Hieron (2-1-0)
2012-07-13: W vs. [#157WW] Romario Manoel da Silva (22-10-1) via Technical Submission (Brabo Choke) in 2:04 of round 2
2011-10-29: L vs. [#10WW] Ben Askren (10-0-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)
2011-05-07: W vs. [#11LW] Rick Hawn (14-1-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jake Ellenberger 126, Jay Hieron 84
Previous Match-up Record: Jay Hieron leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Jay Hieron leads 2-1
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Flyweight (125)
[#6] Jussier da Silva (14-1-0) vs. [#8] John Dodson (13-5-0)
Jussier da Silva is the All-Time #4 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jussier da Silva (3-0-0)
2012-06-29: W vs. [#164FLY] Sidney Oliveira (5-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:45 of round 1
2012-03-18: W vs. [NA] Martin Coria (1-3-1) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 2:11 of round 3
2011-12-15: W vs. [#276FLY] Rodrigo Favacho dos Santo (8-2-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:52 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: John Dodson (3-0-0)
2012-05-05: W vs. [#27FLY] Tim Elliott (8-3-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-12-03: W vs. [#47BW] TJ Dillashaw (6-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:54 of round 1
2010-12-11: W vs. [#12FLY] John Moraga (11-1-0) via UD ()

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jussier da Silva 98, John Dodson 153
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[#11] Stefan Struve (24-5-0, 251.0lb) vs. [#16] Stipe Miocic (9-0-0, 239.0lb)

Last 3 Fights: Stefan Struve (3-0-0)
2012-05-26: W vs. [#33HW+] Lavar Johnson (17-6-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 1:05 of round 1
2012-02-15: W vs. [#47HW+] Dave Herman (21-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:52 of round 2
2011-10-01: W vs. [#53HW+] Pat Barry (7-5-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 3:22 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Stipe Miocic (3-0-0)
2012-05-26: W vs. [#68HW+] Shane del Rosario (11-1-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 3:14 of round 2
2012-02-15: W vs. [#59HW+] Philip De Fries (9-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:43 of round 1
2011-10-08: W vs. [#64LHW] Joey Beltran (14-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Stefan Struve 126, Stipe Miocic 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#48] Dan Hardy (24-10-0, 169.0lb) vs. [#62] Amir Sadollah (6-3-0, 169.0lb)
Dan Hardy is the All-Time #25 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Dan Hardy (1-2-0)
2012-05-26: W vs. [#104WW] Duane Ludwig (21-13-0) via KO (Punch and Elbows) in 3:51 of round 1
2011-08-14: L vs. [*] Chris Lytle (31-18-5) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:16 of round 3
2011-03-26: L vs. [#18LHW] Anthony Johnson (13-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Amir Sadollah (2-1-0)
2012-05-15: W vs. [#89WW] Jorge Lopez (11-3-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2011-08-14: L vs. [#104WW] Duane Ludwig (21-13-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-03-26: W vs. [#136WW] DaMarques Johnson (16-11-0) via Submission (Elbows) in 3:27 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dan Hardy 126, Amir Sadollah 137
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Dan Hardy leads 1-0
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Bantamweight (135)
[#17] Yves Jabouin (18-7-0, 136.0lb) vs. [#42] Brad Pickett (21-6-0, 135.0lb)

Last 3 Fights: Yves Jabouin (3-0-0)
2012-05-15: W vs. [#72BW] Jeff Hougland (10-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-27)
2011-12-10: W vs. [#126BW] Walel Watson (9-5-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
2011-08-27: W vs. [#18BW] Ian Loveland (16-9-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 27-30)

Last 3 Fights: Brad Pickett (2-1-0)
2012-04-14: W vs. [#213BW] Damacio Page (15-8-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:05 of round 2
2011-11-05: L vs. [#2BW] Renan Barao (29-1-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:09 of round 1
2010-12-16: W vs. [#53BW] Ivan Menjivar (24-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Yves Jabouin 137, Brad Pickett 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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A couple of months ago, I looked at the state of the UFC & StrikeForce middleweight divisions, and proposed a few potential match-ups that made sense at the time. Since then, the climate at 185 lbs has changed quite a bit. The injury bug has been running rampant through UFC, and no weight class has been affected as hard as light-heavyweights. Fortunately, several middleweights were willing to move up a weight class on short notice.  With three of the middleweight Top 5 – including the #1 and champion Anderson Silva – scheduled to take their next fight at 205 lbs, this creates an interesting power vacuum at the top of 185. And what better way to fill a vacuum in MMA than a good old-fashioned eight man tournament?

In recent history, UFC has stayed away from the tournament format, using it only on the rare occasion when a title is vacant or disputed, and capping the number of participants at four. Even with those limitations, things seem to go wrong quite often, as was the case with the scoring snafu in the flyweight opening round matchup between Ian McCall and Demetrious Johnson. So, Zuffa’s reluctance to do tournaments is understandable. However, the best thing about the tourney I am proposing is that all the first-round match-ups are already scheduled, and we even have several viable alternate bouts, in case of inevitable injuries. They don’t even have to call it a tournament, but the following four bouts all have strong divisional implications, and having the winners face each other tourney-style would result in a perfect contender for Anderson Silva, whenever he decides he’s had his share of super-fights and comes back to defend his crown. Or, if Silva retires or decides to permanently move up to 205, this series of bouts could crown a new champion:

UFC 152 (September 22)
[#14] Brian Stann vs [#15] Michael Bisping

UFC on Fuel TV 6 (November 10th)
[#10] Rich Franklin vs [#45] Cung Le

UFC 155 (December 29)
[#3] Chris Weidman vs [#6] Tim Boetsch
[#8] Alan Belcher vs [#16] Yushin Okami

And the alternate bouts:

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Light Heavyweight Championship (205)
[#1/#2DD] Jon Jones (16-1-0) vs. [#5MW] Vitor Belfort (21-9-0)
Jon Jones is the All-Time #9 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.
Vitor Belfort is the All-Time #14 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jon Jones (3-0-0)
2012-04-21: W vs. [#4LHW] Rashad Evans (22-2-1) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)
2011-12-10: W vs. [#3LHW] Lyoto Machida (18-3-0) via Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:26 of round 2
2011-09-24: W vs. [#7LHW] Quinton Jackson (32-10-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:14 of round 4

Last 3 Fights: Vitor Belfort (2-1-0)
2012-01-14: W vs. [#19LHW] Anthony Johnson (12-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:49 of round 1
2011-08-06: W vs. [#153WW] Yoshihiro Akiyama (13-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:52 of round 1
2011-02-05: L vs. [#1MW/#1DD] Anderson Silva (32-4-0) via KO (Front Kick and Punches) in 3:25 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jon Jones 154, Vitor Belfort 252
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Flyweight Championship (125)
[#1/#10DD] Joseph Benavidez (16-2-0) vs. [#2] Demetrious Johnson (15-2-1)

Last 3 Fights: Joseph Benavidez (3-0-0)
2012-03-03: W vs. [#9FLY] Yasuhiro Urushitani (19-5-6) via TKO (Punches) in 0:11 of round 2
2011-08-14: W vs. [#9BW] Eddie Wineland (19-8-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2011-03-19: W vs. [#18BW] Ian Loveland (16-9-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Demetrious Johnson (1-1-1)
2012-06-08: W vs. [#4FLY] Ian McCall (11-3-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-03-03: D vs. [#4FLY] Ian McCall (11-3-1) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3
2011-10-01: L vs. [#1BW/#9DD] Dominick Cruz (19-1-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Joseph Benavidez 203, Demetrious Johnson 106
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#14] Brian Stann (12-4-0) vs. [#15] Michael Bisping (22-4-0)
Michael Bisping is the All-Time #20 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Brian Stann (2-1-0)
2012-04-14: W vs. [#58MW] Alessio Sakara (15-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:26 of round 1
2011-10-08: L vs. [#2MW] Chael Sonnen (27-12-1) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:51 of round 2
2011-05-28: W vs. [#24MW] Jorge Santiago (25-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:29 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Michael Bisping (2-1-0)
2012-01-28: L vs. [#2MW] Chael Sonnen (27-12-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-12-03: W vs. [#94MW] Jason Miller (23-9-0) via TKO (Knees to the Body and Punches) in 3:34 of round 3
2011-02-27: W vs. [*] Jorge Rivera (20-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:54 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brian Stann 161, Michael Bisping 238
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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