If you’ve been following recent updates, most notably those associated with the Upcoming Events page, you already know that we now display a meta-odds feature — average odds from about a dozen sports books.
I thought it would be interesting to compare results of UFC 152 and how we stacked up versus the gamblers. This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds. Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary rating that is primarily focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation. Either way, both systems have their place in determining who to expect to win the fight.
Before going in to that, a side note. I performed a simple study for recent notable fights and determined that due to the unpredictability of MMA, a favorite should rarely, if ever, exceed -1000 (a bet of $1,000 would profit you $100). Something to think about before you place that next bet on a fight like Silva/Bonnar.
Another side note. A part of the advantage of the rating system (like gambling, too) is that a rating difference can not only help determine an expected winner, but the margin of victory as well. With this in mind, I’m going to be very “black and white” in determining who got it more correct. Feel free to comment on this post and give your thoughts.
Ratings vs. Gamblers Scoreboard
|Fight||Odds Favorite||Rating Favorite||“Who won”|
|Jones vs. Belfort||Jones (-856 / Massive)||Jones (3.59x^ / Massive)||Tie|
|Johnson vs. Benavidez||Benavidez (-261 / Moderate)||Benavidez (1.2x / Very Small)||Ratings|
|Bisping vs. Stann||Bisping (-198 / Small)||Stann (1.07x / Pick’Em)||Gamblers|
|Hamill vs. Hollett||Hamill (-357 / Large)||Hamill (1.59x / Moderate)||Tie|
|Swanson vs. Oliveira||Oliveira (-247 / Moderate)||Swanson (1.09x / Pick ‘Em)||Ratings|
|Magalhaes vs. Pokrajac||Pokrajac (-158 / Small)||Pokrajac (1.22x / Small)||Tie|
|Grant vs. Dunham||Dunham (-137 / Pick’Em)||Grant (1.26x / Small)||Ratings|
|Pierson vs. Benoist||Benoist (-217 / Small)||Pierson (1.3x / Small)||Ratings|
|Brimage vs. Hettes||Hettes (-446 / Large)||Hettes (1.07x / Pick ‘Em)||Ratings|
|Gagnon vs. Watson||Watson (-188 / Small)||Gagnon (1.22x / Small)||Ratings|
|Noke vs. Brenneman||Brenneman (-224 / Moderate)||Brenneman (1.95x^ / Large)||Gamblers|
^ – Division move was not factored into rating difference.