MMA Statistics – Page 11

Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura (03-16-2024)

Posted on March 11, 2024 by Jason

Heavyweight (265)
[#10] Tai Tuivasa (14-6-0, -128) vs. [#16] Marcin Tybura (24-8-0, +104)
Tai Tuivasa is the All-Time #49 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Tai Tuivasa (0-3-0)
2023-09-09: L vs. [#6HW+] Alexander Volkov (37-10-0) via Submission (Ezekiel Choke) in 4:37 of round 2
2022-12-03: L vs. [#4HW+] Sergei Pavlovich (18-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:54 of round 1
2022-09-03: L vs. [#2HW+] Ciryl Gane (12-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:23 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Marcin Tybura (2-1-0)
2023-07-22: L vs. [#3HW+] Tom Aspinall (14-3-0) via TKO (Elbow and Punches) in 1:13 of round 1
2023-02-04: W vs. [#25HW+] Blagoy Ivanov (19-6-0) via UD ()
2022-08-20: W vs. [#20HW+] Alexander Romanov (17-2-0) via MD (29-28, 29-28, 28-28)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Tai Tuivasa	-128		53.38%
Elo K170	Marcin Tybura	1862.59	+104.08	64.55%
Elo Modified	Marcin Tybura	1878.58	+104.84	64.65%
Glicko-1	Marcin Tybura	1900.89	+78.35	61.09%
WHR	Marcin Tybura	1781.69	+89.16	62.55%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Tai Tuivasa 189, Marcin Tybura 238
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 5 win(s) against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#31] Kennedy Nzechukwu (12-4-0, -493) vs. [#45] Ovince St. Preux (26-17-0, +350)

Last 3 Fights: Kennedy Nzechukwu (2-1-0)
2023-08-05: L vs. [#22LHW] Dustin Jacoby (19-8-1) via TKO (Punches) in 1:22 of round 1
2023-05-06: W vs. [#44LHW] Devin Clark (14-9-0) via Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:28 of round 2
2022-11-19: W vs. [#29LHW] Ion Cutelaba (17-10-1) via TKO (Flying Knee and Punches) in 1:02 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Ovince St. Preux (1-2-0)
2023-02-18: L vs. [#18LHW] Philipe Lins (18-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:49 of round 1
2022-05-07: W vs. [*] Mauricio Rua (27-14-1) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 29-28)
2021-06-26: L vs. [#64LHW] Tanner Boser (21-10-1) via KO (Punches) in 2:31 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Kennedy Nzechukwu	-493		78.91%
Elo K170	Kennedy Nzechukwu	1615.71	+83.10	61.74%
Elo Modified	Kennedy Nzechukwu	1662.55	+112.03	65.59%
Glicko-1	Kennedy Nzechukwu	1701.10	+149.64	70.29%
WHR	Kennedy Nzechukwu	1659.57	+120.40	66.67%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kennedy Nzechukwu 224, Ovince St. Preux 392
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[*] Mike Davis (10-2-0, -260) vs. [*] Natan Levy (8-1-0, +207)

Last 3 Fights: Mike Davis (3-0-0)
2022-10-01: W vs. [#176LW] Viacheslav Borshchev (7-3-1) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 29-28)
2021-01-20: W vs. [#86LW] Mason Jones (14-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-10-12: W vs. [*] Thomas Gifford (17-10-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:45 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Natan Levy (2-1-0)
2022-12-03: W vs. [#715LW] Genaro Valdez (10-3-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2022-04-30: W vs. [#209LW] Mike Breeden (11-6-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2021-11-20: L vs. [#41LW] Rafa Garcia (16-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Mike Davis	-260		68.91%
Elo K170	Mike Davis	1626.84	+90.45	62.73%
Elo Modified	Mike Davis	1661.28	+100.34	64.05%
Glicko-1	Mike Davis	1678.91	+148.62	70.17%
WHR	Mike Davis	1664.94	+201.00	76.08%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mike Davis 532, Natan Levy 469
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Introducing the WHR Underdog Parlay!

Posted on March 6, 2024 by Jason

In terms of consistency, predictability, and sensitivity, the WHR rating system is probably the best foundation for a combat sports rating system. We have WHR-based ratings available on our ranking pages, and you can read more about it here.

It has been a while since we posted an original gambling-related article, so I thought I’d use the WHR system to provide a parlay for this weekend’s UFC card, listing the fighters that are betting underdogs, that are favored by WHR. However, there are several things to consider:

Only bouts with the following criteria are considered:
- Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
- Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
- Both fighters must have at least 1 draw or 1 loss. Unblemished records have no known “ceiling”.
Our odds are “composite” odds — an average of many major bookmakers.
There may be “better” bets available. In other words, a slight betting favorite that is a HUGE WHR favorite. Perhaps in future post(s), we rank the best bets regardless.. a WHR “Best Bets” parlay.
This is not “plain jane” WHR (although it is very advanced by default). Read the FAQ for more info.
As WHR is an Elo-variant, I’m using the same win probability formula as is the standard in Elo. If one of you math nerds has a better approach, please let me know.
“Odds Win %” does not factor in the juice. To prevent confusion, I will not list fights in which the underdog has negative odds. In this case, the fights are so close that the underdog & favorite usually vary between books anyway.
Don’t blame us if you lose money. Gamble at your own risk.

UFC 299 WHR Underdog Parlay

So, what this tells us, is that based on WHR win probability, this parlay is about 7x more likely to hit than the most recent odds imply, with Burns being the most attractive single bet.

As far as the entire card goes, Jack Della Maddalena is pretty far ahead of the pack as the “worst bet”, with Gilbert Burns his opponent, obviously the “best bet”.

Fight Matrix Program – UFC 299: O’Malley vs. Vera 2 (03-09-2024)

Posted on March 4, 2024 by Jason

Bantamweight Championship (135)
[#1/#9DD/#10P4P] Sean OMalley (17-1-0, -279) vs. [#5] Marlon Vera (24-8-1, +222)
Sean OMalley is the All-Time #12 ranked Bantamweight fighter.
Marlon Vera is the All-Time #34 ranked Bantamweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Sean OMalley (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2023-08-19: W vs. [#3BW] Aljamain Sterling (23-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:51 of round 2
2022-10-22: W vs. [#8BW] Petr Yan (16-5-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2022-07-02: NC vs. [#12BW] Pedro Munhoz (20-8-0)

Last 3 Fights: Marlon Vera (2-1-0)
2023-08-19: W vs. [#12BW] Pedro Munhoz (20-8-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-03-25: L vs. [#4BW] Cory Sandhagen (17-4-0) via SD (50-45, 49-46, 47-48)
2022-08-13: W vs. [*] Dominick Cruz (24-4-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 2:17 of round 4

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Sean OMalley	-279		70.32%
Elo K170	Sean OMalley	2123.84	+52.00	57.43%
Elo Modified	Marlon Vera	2085.54	+28.81	54.14%
Glicko-1	Marlon Vera	2156.78	+23.83	53.42%
WHR	Sean OMalley	1962.01	+2.97	50.43%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sean OMalley 203, Marlon Vera 203
Previous Match-up Record: Marlon Vera leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#4] Dustin Poirier (29-8-0, +175) vs. [#15] Benoit St. Denis (13-1-0, -215)
Dustin Poirier is the All-Time #4 ranked Lightweight and #30 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Dustin Poirier (1-2-0)
2023-07-29: L vs. [#3LW/#8P4P] Justin Gaethje (25-4-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 1:00 of round 2
2022-11-12: W vs. [*] Michael Chandler (23-8-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:00 of round 3
2021-12-11: L vs. [#2LW/#5DD/#7P4P] Charles Oliveira (34-9-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:02 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Benoit St. Denis (3-0-0)
2023-11-11: W vs. [#38LW] Matt Frevola (11-4-1) via KO (Head Kick) in 1:31 of round 1
2023-09-02: W vs. [#51LW] Thiago Moises (17-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:44 of round 2
2023-07-01: W vs. [#83LW] Ismael Bonfim (19-4-0) via SUB in 4:48 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Benoit St. Denis	-215		65.24%
Elo K170	Dustin Poirier	2238.03	+263.03	81.97%
Elo Modified	Dustin Poirier	2188.08	+223.38	78.35%
Glicko-1	Dustin Poirier	2247.43	+171.99	72.91%
WHR	Dustin Poirier	2004.99	+68.90	59.79%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dustin Poirier 224, Benoit St. Denis 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#14] Kevin Holland (25-10-0, -132) vs. [#18] Michael Page (21-2-0, +110)

Last 3 Fights: Kevin Holland (2-1-0)
2023-09-16: L vs. [#12WW] Jack Della Maddalena (16-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-07-29: W vs. [#42WW] Michael Chiesa (16-7-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 2:39 of round 1
2023-04-08: W vs. [#32WW] Santiago Ponzinibbio (29-7-0) via KO (Punch) in 3:16 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Michael Page (2-1-0)
2023-03-10: W vs. [#56WW] Goiti Yamauchi (28-6-0) via TKO (Leg Kick) in 0:26 of round 1
2022-05-13: L vs. [#24WW] Logan Storley (15-2-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 49-46)
2021-10-01: W vs. [#23MW] Douglas Lima (33-11-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Kevin Holland	-132		54.43%
Elo K170	Michael Page	1997.58	+99.52	63.94%
Elo Modified	Michael Page	1992.24	+51.37	57.34%
Glicko-1	Michael Page	2077.22	+52.73	57.53%
WHR	Michael Page	1936.14	+89.44	62.59%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kevin Holland 175, Michael Page 365
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Current MMA Rankings Updated (03-03-2024)

Posted on March 3, 2024 by Jason

Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev (03-02-2024)

Posted on February 26, 2024 by Jason

Heavyweight (265)
[#13] Jairzinho Rozenstruik (13-5-0, +119) vs. [#37] Shamil Gaziev (12-0-0, -146)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik is the All-Time #47 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jairzinho Rozenstruik (1-2-0)
2023-05-13: L vs. [#7HW+] Jailton Almeida (20-2-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:43 of round 1
2022-12-10: W vs. [#30LHW] Chris Daukaus (12-7-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:23 of round 1
2022-06-04: L vs. [#5HW+] Alexander Volkov (37-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:12 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Shamil Gaziev (3-0-0)
2023-12-16: W vs. [#69HW+] Martin Buday (13-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:56 of round 2
2023-09-19: W vs. [#146HW+] Greg Velasco (6-1-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:38 of round 1
2023-02-18: W vs. [#47HW+] Darko Stosic (20-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:54 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Shamil Gaziev	-146		56.51%
Elo K170	Shamil Gaziev	1753.20	+13.23	51.51%
Elo Modified	Jairzinho Rozenstruik	1760.24	+25.72	52.81%
Glicko-1	Jairzinho Rozenstruik	1814.26	+25.36	53.64%
WHR	Shamil Gaziev	1740.76	+23.48	52.68%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jairzinho Rozenstruik 294, Shamil Gaziev 77
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#27] Vitor Petrino (10-0-0, -287) vs. [#62] Tyson Pedro (10-4-0, +224)

Last 3 Fights: Vitor Petrino (3-0-0)
2023-11-04: W vs. [#51LHW] Modestas Bukauskas (15-6-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:03 of round 2
2023-07-08: W vs. [#36LHW] Marcin Prachnio (17-7-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 3:42 of round 3
2023-03-11: W vs. [#155LHW] Anton Turkalj (8-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)

Last 3 Fights: Tyson Pedro (2-1-0)
2023-09-09: W vs. [#155LHW] Anton Turkalj (8-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:12 of round 1
2023-02-11: L vs. [#51LHW] Modestas Bukauskas (15-6-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-08-20: W vs. [*] Harry Hunsucker (7-6-0) via TKO (Body Kick and Punches) in 1:05 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Vitor Petrino	-287		70.61%
Elo K170	Vitor Petrino	1740.71	+207.33	72.06%
Elo Modified	Vitor Petrino	1761.62	+200.28	70.62%
Glicko-1	Vitor Petrino	1786.69	+167.98	72.45%
WHR	Vitor Petrino	1826.11	+241.20	75.06%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Vitor Petrino 119, Tyson Pedro 175
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Vitor Petrino leads 2-1
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Middleweight (185)
[#61] Eryk Anders (15-8-0, -331) vs. [#205] Jamie Pickett (13-10-0, +251)

Last 3 Fights: Eryk Anders (1-2-0)
2023-06-10: L vs. [#39MW] Marc-Andre Barriault (17-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-12-03: W vs. [#77MW] Kyle Daukaus (14-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:45 of round 2
2022-05-21: L vs. [#32MW] Jun Yong Park (17-6-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Jamie Pickett (0-3-0)
2023-08-12: L vs. [#130MW] Josh Fremd (11-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-03-04: L vs. [#124MW] Bo Nickal (5-0-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 2:54 of round 1
2022-09-10: L vs. [#155MW] Denis Tiuliulin (10-9-0) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 4:52 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Eryk Anders	-331		72.94%
Elo K170	Eryk Anders	1545.43	+370.68	84.47%
Elo Modified	Eryk Anders	1606.85	+357.24	82.69%
Glicko-1	Eryk Anders	1650.23	+438.85	92.59%
WHR	Eryk Anders	1594.96	+385.96	85.36%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Eryk Anders 266, Jamie Pickett 203
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Eryk Anders leads 1-0
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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 (02-23-2024)

Posted on February 19, 2024 by Jason

Flyweight (125)
[#2/#4DD/#4P4P] Brandon Moreno (21-7-2, -253) vs. [#5] Brandon Royval (15-7-0, +201)
Brandon Moreno is the All-Time #3 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Brandon Royval is the All-Time #26 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Brandon Moreno (2-1-0)
2023-07-08: L vs. [#1FLY/#3DD/#3P4P] Alexandre Pantoja (27-5-0) via SD (46-49, 48-47, 48-47)
2023-01-21: W vs. [#10BW] Deiveson Figueiredo (22-3-1) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 3
2022-07-30: W vs. [#4FLY] Kai Kara-France (24-11-0) via TKO (Body Kick and Punches) in 4:34 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Brandon Royval (2-1-0)
2023-12-16: L vs. [#1FLY/#3DD/#3P4P] Alexandre Pantoja (27-5-0) via UD (49-46, 50-45, 50-45)
2023-04-15: W vs. [#10FLY] Matheus Nicolau (19-3-1) via KO (Knee and Elbows) in 2:09 of round 1
2022-05-07: W vs. [#41FLY] Matt Schnell (16-8-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:14 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Brandon Moreno	-253		68.32%
Elo K170	Brandon Moreno	2022.28	+171.15	68.61%
Elo Modified	Brandon Moreno	2026.57	+266.16	76.23%
Glicko-1	Brandon Moreno	2145.82	+329.02	86.92%
WHR	Brandon Moreno	2027.83	+281.22	78.33%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brandon Moreno 231, Brandon Royval 70
Previous Match-up Record: Brandon Moreno leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Brandon Moreno leads 2-1
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Featherweight (145)
[#4] Yair Rodriguez (19-4-0, -173) vs. [*] Brian Ortega (15-3-0, +141)
Yair Rodriguez is the All-Time #18 ranked Featherweight fighter.
Brian Ortega is the All-Time #11 ranked Featherweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Yair Rodriguez (2-1-0)
2023-07-08: L vs. [#2FW/#6DD] Alexander Volkanovski (26-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:19 of round 3
2023-02-11: W vs. [#6FW] Josh Emmett (19-4-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 4:19 of round 2
2022-07-16: W vs. [*] Brian Ortega (15-3-0) via TKO (Shoulder Injury) in 4:11 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Brian Ortega (1-2-0)
2022-07-16: L vs. [#4FW] Yair Rodriguez (19-4-0) via TKO (Shoulder Injury) in 4:11 of round 1
2021-09-25: L vs. [#2FW/#6DD] Alexander Volkanovski (26-4-0) via UD (50-44, 50-45, 49-46)
2020-10-17: W vs. [*] Chan Sung Jung (17-8-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Yair Rodriguez	-173		60.43%
Elo K170	Yair Rodriguez	2113.37	+125.87	63.99%
Elo Modified	Yair Rodriguez	2044.32	+99.92	60.76%
Glicko-1	Yair Rodriguez	2128.98	+138.90	68.99%
WHR	Yair Rodriguez	1955.28	+117.46	63.10%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Yair Rodriguez 231, Brian Ortega 588
Previous Match-up Record: Yair Rodriguez leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Brian Ortega leads 2-1
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Lightweight (155)
[#64] Daniel Zellhuber (14-1-0, -261) vs. [#186] Francisco Prado (13-1-0, +206)

Last 3 Fights: Daniel Zellhuber (2-1-0)
2023-09-16: W vs. [#95LW] Christos Giagos (20-11-0) via Submission (Anaconda Choke) in 3:26 of round 2
2023-04-15: W vs. [#263LW] Lando Vannata (12-7-2) via UD (29-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2022-09-17: L vs. [#176LW] Trey Ogden (16-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Francisco Prado (2-1-0)
2023-07-15: W vs. [#522LW] Ottman Azaitar (13-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:05 of round 1
2023-02-11: L vs. [#114LW] Jamie Mullarkey (17-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-12-16: W vs. [#717WW] Jose Barrios Vargas (14-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:17 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Daniel Zellhuber	-261		68.87%
Elo K170	Daniel Zellhuber	1740.90	+145.15	66.00%
Elo Modified	Daniel Zellhuber	1768.02	+165.55	67.36%
Glicko-1	Daniel Zellhuber	1802.83	+124.56	67.20%
WHR	Daniel Zellhuber	1659.94	+127.03	64.11%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Daniel Zellhuber 161, Francisco Prado 224
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Youngest and Oldest UFC Champions

Posted on February 13, 2024 by Oleg

Recently, the following statistic has been popping up across MMA forums and message boards: “In all history of UFC, only twice has a fighter 35 or older won a title match at welterweight or below”. The two title wins by the 35+ year old at lighter weight classes both belong to Tyron Woodley, who defended his title against Damien Maia and Darren Till at 35 & 36 years old, respectively.

Many fans have been using this statistic to predict doom for featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski, in his UFC 298 title defense against Ilia Topuria. The 35-year-old Volkanovski is coming off a head kick knockout at the hands of lightweight champion Islam Makhachev, adding fuel to the fire behind his detractors. Will father time once again remain undefeated, or will Volkanovski defy the MMA-Math and successfully defend his title, joining Woodley in the over-35 champion club? We will find out this coming weekend. In the meanwhile, here’s a compilation of the youngest and oldest UFC champions through history of the organization:

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria (02-16-2024)

Posted on February 12, 2024 by Jason

Featherweight Championship (145)
[#1/#2DD/#5P4P] Alexander Volkanovski (26-3-0, -115) vs. [#4] Ilia Topuria (14-0-0, -106)
Alexander Volkanovski is the All-Time #2 ranked Featherweight and #7 ranked Absolute fighter.
Ilia Topuria is the All-Time #45 ranked Featherweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Alexander Volkanovski (1-2-0)
2023-10-21: L vs. [#1LW/#1DD/#1P4P] Islam Makhachev (25-1-0) via KO (Head Kick and Punches) in 3:06 of round 1
2023-07-08: W vs. [#3FW] Yair Rodriguez (19-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:19 of round 3
2023-02-11: L vs. [#1LW/#1DD/#1P4P] Islam Makhachev (25-1-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Ilia Topuria (3-0-0)
2023-06-24: W vs. [#6FW] Josh Emmett (19-4-0) via UD (49-45, 50-44, 50-42)
2022-12-10: W vs. [#14FW] Bryce Mitchell (16-2-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 3:10 of round 2
2022-03-19: W vs. [#128LW] Jai Herbert (12-5-1) via KO (Punches) in 1:07 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Alexander Volkanovski	-115		50.96%
Elo K170	Alexander Volkanovski	2321.36	+256.15	76.32%
Elo Modified	Alexander Volkanovski	2262.80	+222.64	72.61%
Glicko-1	Alexander Volkanovski	2350.37	+251.14	80.93%
WHR	Alexander Volkanovski	2221.72	+172.17	68.71%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexander Volkanovski 119, Ilia Topuria 238
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#7] Robert Whittaker (24-7-0, -217) vs. [*] Paulo Costa (14-2-0, +174)
Robert Whittaker is the All-Time #5 ranked Middleweight fighter.
Paulo Costa is the All-Time #26 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Robert Whittaker (1-2-0)
2023-07-08: L vs. [#2MW/#10DD] Dricus Du Plessis (21-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:23 of round 2
2022-09-03: W vs. [#8MW] Marvin Vettori (19-7-1) via UD ()
2022-02-12: L vs. [#1MW/#8DD] Israel Adesanya (24-3-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Paulo Costa (1-2-0)
2022-08-20: W vs. [*] Luke Rockhold (16-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-10-23: L vs. [#8MW] Marvin Vettori (19-7-1) via UD (48-46, 48-46, 48-46)
2020-09-26: L vs. [#1MW/#8DD] Israel Adesanya (24-3-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 3:59 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Robert Whittaker	-217		65.22%
Elo K170	Robert Whittaker	2141.38	+140.79	65.55%
Elo Modified	Robert Whittaker	2118.40	+114.65	62.29%
Glicko-1	Robert Whittaker	2177.03	+93.48	63.14%
WHR	Robert Whittaker	1951.77	+57.07	56.48%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Robert Whittaker 224, Paulo Costa 546
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Robert Whittaker leads 4-2
.

Welterweight (170)
[#11] Ian Garry (13-0-0, -231) vs. [#13] Geoff Neal (15-5-0, +184)

Last 3 Fights: Ian Garry (3-0-0)
2023-08-19: W vs. [#17WW] Neil Magny (29-11-0) via UD (30-26, 30-24, 30-26)
2023-05-13: W vs. [#38WW] Daniel Rodriguez (17-4-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 2:57 of round 1
2023-03-04: W vs. [#166WW] Kenan Song (20-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:22 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Geoff Neal (2-1-0)
2023-03-04: L vs. [#5WW] Shavkat Rakhmonov (18-0-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:17 of round 3
2022-08-06: W vs. [#9WW] Vicente Luque (22-9-1) via KO (Punches) in 2:01 of round 3
2021-12-11: W vs. [#32WW] Santiago Ponzinibbio (29-7-0) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 29-28)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Ian Garry	-231		66.46%
Elo K170	Geoff Neal	1980.69	+1.27	50.15%
Elo Modified	Ian Garry	1970.17	+39.99	54.37%
Glicko-1	Ian Garry	2004.00	+34.99	55.02%
WHR	Ian Garry	1918.30	+74.75	58.46%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ian Garry 182, Geoff Neal 350
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Ian Garry leads 1-0
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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer (02-10-2024)

Posted on February 5, 2024 by Jason

Middleweight (185)
[#15] Jack Hermansson (23-8-0, +178) vs. [#29] Joseph Pyfer (12-2-0, -223)
Jack Hermansson is the All-Time #40 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jack Hermansson (1-2-0)
2022-12-03: L vs. [#14MW] Roman Dolidze (12-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:06 of round 2
2022-07-23: W vs. [#20MW] Chris Curtis (31-10-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2022-02-05: L vs. [#3MW/#10DD] Sean Strickland (28-6-0) via SD (49-46, 47-48, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Joseph Pyfer (3-0-0)
2023-10-07: W vs. [#79MW] Abdul Razak Alhassan (12-6-0) via Technical Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 2:05 of round 2
2023-04-08: W vs. [#53MW] Gerald Meerschaert (35-17-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:15 of round 1
2022-09-17: W vs. [*] Alen Amedovski (8-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:55 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Joseph Pyfer	-223		65.74%
Elo K170	Jack Hermansson	1864.46	+187.12	70.16%
Elo Modified	Jack Hermansson	1909.80	+200.20	70.61%
Glicko-1	Jack Hermansson	1965.84	+178.50	73.64%
WHR	Jack Hermansson	1805.63	+127.58	64.17%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jack Hermansson 434, Joseph Pyfer 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#15] Dan Ige (17-7-0, -176) vs. [#52] Andre Fili (23-10-0, +145)

Last 3 Fights: Dan Ige (2-1-0)
2023-09-23: L vs. [#14FW] Bryce Mitchell (16-2-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-06-10: W vs. [#42FW] Nate Landwehr (17-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2023-01-14: W vs. [#36FW] Damon Jackson (22-6-1) via KO (Punch) in 4:13 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Andre Fili (2-1-0)
2023-12-16: W vs. [#178FW] Lucas Almeida (14-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:32 of round 1
2023-07-22: L vs. [#35FW] Nathaniel Wood (19-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-09-17: W vs. [#18FW] Bill Algeo (18-7-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Dan Ige	-176		60.97%
Elo K170	Dan Ige	1830.30	+109.34	62.24%
Elo Modified	Dan Ige	1795.55	+117.13	62.55%
Glicko-1	Dan Ige	1834.04	+124.33	67.17%
WHR	Dan Ige	1724.77	+83.67	59.44%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dan Ige 140, Andre Fili 56
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#83] Robert Bryczek (17-5-0) vs. [#185] Ihor Potieria (24-5-0)

Last 3 Fights: Robert Bryczek (3-0-0)
2023-07-28: W vs. [#102LHW] Samuel Kristofic (17-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:55 of round 1
2023-05-20: W vs. [#276MW] Lee Chadwick (28-19-1) via KO (Punch) in 2:41 of round 1
2022-12-03: W vs. [#331MW] Abdel Rahmane Driai (8-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:25 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Ihor Potieria (1-2-0)
2023-12-02: L vs. [#61LHW] Rodolfo Bellato (12-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:17 of round 2
2023-05-13: L vs. [#31LHW] Carlos Ulberg (10-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:09 of round 1
2023-01-21: W vs. [*] Mauricio Rua (27-14-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:05 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Elo K170	Robert Bryczek	1645.42	+199.96	71.37%
Elo Modified	Robert Bryczek	1661.97	+191.74	69.83%
Glicko-1	Robert Bryczek	1741.82	+261.39	81.83%
WHR	Robert Bryczek	1670.09	+241.68	75.10%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Robert Bryczek 197, Ihor Potieria 70
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov (02-03-2024)

Posted on January 29, 2024 by Jason

Middleweight (185)
[#13] Roman Dolidze (12-2-0, +137) vs. [#16] Nassourdine Imavov (12-4-0, -166)

Last 3 Fights: Roman Dolidze (2-1-0)
2023-03-18: L vs. [#8MW] Marvin Vettori (19-7-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2022-12-03: W vs. [#14MW] Jack Hermansson (23-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:06 of round 2
2022-10-29: W vs. [#101MW] Phil Hawes (12-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:09 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Nassourdine Imavov (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2023-06-10: NC vs. [#20MW] Chris Curtis (31-10-0)
2023-01-14: L vs. [#3MW/#10DD] Sean Strickland (28-6-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)
2022-09-03: W vs. [#24WW] Joaquin Buckley (17-6-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Nassourdine Imavov	-166		59.66%
Elo K170	Roman Dolidze	1847.82	+85.04	59.59%
Elo Modified	Roman Dolidze	1852.88	+78.54	58.51%
Glicko-1	Roman Dolidze	1913.44	+72.56	60.29%
WHR	Roman Dolidze	1786.42	+24.46	52.79%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Roman Dolidze 322, Nassourdine Imavov 238
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Roman Dolidze leads 1-0
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Lightweight (155)
[#27] Renato Carneiro (17-5-1, -145) vs. [#29] Drew Dober (27-12-0, +119)

Last 3 Fights: Renato Carneiro (2-1-0)
2022-11-12: W vs. [#93LW] Brad Riddell (10-4-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:20 of round 1
2022-03-05: L vs. [#10LW] Rafael dos Anjos (32-15-0) via UD (49-44, 50-44, 49-45)
2022-02-12: W vs. [#74FW] Alexander Hernandez (14-7-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:23 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Drew Dober (2-1-0)
2023-10-07: W vs. [#132LW] Ricky Glenn (22-8-2) via TKO (Punches) in 2:36 of round 1
2023-05-06: L vs. [#37LW] Matt Frevola (11-4-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:08 of round 1
2022-12-17: W vs. [#18LW] Bobby Green (31-15-1) via KO (Punch) in 2:45 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Renato Carneiro	-145		56.44%
Elo K170	Drew Dober	1846.41	+1.48	50.17%
Elo Modified	Drew Dober	1838.24	+12.80	51.40%
Glicko-1	Drew Dober	1882.69	+13.02	51.87%
WHR	Drew Dober	1807.30	+20.07	52.29%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Renato Carneiro 448, Drew Dober 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Renato Carneiro leads 2-1
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Welterweight (170)
[#32] Randy Brown (17-5-0, -241) vs. [#44] Muslim Salikhov (19-4-0, +192)

Last 3 Fights: Randy Brown (2-1-0)
2023-06-24: W vs. [#134WW] Wellington Turman (18-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-02-11: L vs. [#12WW] Jack Della Maddalena (16-2-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:13 of round 1
2022-10-01: W vs. [#46WW] Francisco Trinaldo (29-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Muslim Salikhov (1-2-0)
2023-06-17: L vs. [#29WW] Nicolas Dalby (23-5-1) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-11-19: W vs. [#81WW] Andre Fialho (16-8-0) via TKO (Spinning Wheel Kick and Punches) in 1:03 of round 3
2022-07-16: L vs. [*] Jingliang Li (19-8-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 4:38 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Randy Brown	-241		67.35%
Elo K170	Randy Brown	1877.87	+74.15	58.39%
Elo Modified	Randy Brown	1844.86	+61.88	56.73%
Glicko-1	Randy Brown	1852.55	+32.15	54.62%
WHR	Muslim Salikhov	1713.57	+22.59	52.58%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Randy Brown 224, Muslim Salikhov 231
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Fight Matrix Program – UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis (01-20-2024)

Posted on January 15, 2024 by Jason

Middleweight Championship (185)
[#1/#8DD/#8P4P] Sean Strickland (28-5-0, -138) vs. [#5] Dricus Du Plessis (20-2-0, +113)
Sean Strickland is the All-Time #17 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Sean Strickland (3-0-0)
2023-09-09: W vs. [#2MW/#9DD] Israel Adesanya (24-3-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2023-07-01: W vs. [#67MW] Abusupiyan Magomedov (25-6-1) via TKO in 4:20 of round 2
2023-01-14: W vs. [#16MW] Nassourdine Imavov (12-4-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Dricus Du Plessis (3-0-0)
2023-07-08: W vs. [#7MW] Robert Whittaker (24-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:23 of round 2
2023-03-04: W vs. [#10MW] Derek Brunson (24-9-0) via TKO (Corner Stoppage) in 4:59 of round 2
2022-12-10: W vs. [#25MW] Darren Till (18-5-1) via Submission (Face Crank) in 2:43 of round 3

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Sean Strickland	-138		55.25%
Elo K170	Dricus Du Plessis	2232.01	+79.61	58.99%
Elo Modified	Dricus Du Plessis	2192.23	+47.49	55.18%
Glicko-1	Dricus Du Plessis	2294.37	+101.78	64.24%
WHR	Dricus Du Plessis	2113.40	+79.66	59.00%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sean Strickland 133, Dricus Du Plessis 196
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Women Bantamweight Championship (135)
[#1/#8DD] Raquel Pennington (15-8-0, +138) vs. [#5] Mayra Bueno Silva (10-2-1, -167)
Raquel Pennington is the All-Time #47 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Raquel Pennington (3-0-0)
2023-01-14: W vs. [#3BW] Ketlen Vieira (14-3-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2022-04-09: W vs. [#10FW] Aspen Ladd (11-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-12-18: W vs. [*] Macy Chiasson (8-3-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:07 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Mayra Bueno Silva (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2023-07-15: NC vs. [#4BW] Holly Holm (15-6-0)
2023-02-18: W vs. [*] Lina Lansberg (10-8-0) via Submission (Kneebar) in 4:45 of round 2
2022-08-06: W vs. [#33BW] Stephanie Egger (8-5-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 1:17 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Mayra Bueno Silva	-167		59.81%
Elo K170	Raquel Pennington	1822.71	+285.41	78.65%
Elo Modified	Raquel Pennington	1766.56	+199.65	70.56%
Glicko-1	Raquel Pennington	1715.38	+120.52	66.68%
WHR	Raquel Pennington	1649.09	+119.86	63.36%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Raquel Pennington 371, Mayra Bueno Silva 189
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#18] Neil Magny (28-11-0, +248) vs. [#81] Mike Malott (10-1-1, -329)
Neil Magny is the All-Time #39 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Neil Magny (1-2-0)
2023-08-19: L vs. [#11WW] Ian Garry (13-0-0) via UD (30-26, 30-24, 30-26)
2023-06-24: W vs. [#46WW] Philip Rowe (10-4-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-01-21: L vs. [#6WW] Gilbert Burns (22-6-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 4:15 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Mike Malott (3-0-0)
2023-06-10: W vs. [#217WW] Adam Fugitt (9-4-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:06 of round 2
2023-02-25: W vs. [#197WW] Yohan Lainesse (9-2-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 4:15 of round 1
2022-04-09: W vs. [*] Mickey Gall (7-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:41 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Mike Malott	-329		72.74%
Elo K170	Neil Magny	1898.42	+200.92	71.46%
Elo Modified	Neil Magny	1834.21	+124.04	63.25%
Glicko-1	Neil Magny	1861.26	+121.85	66.85%
WHR	Mike Malott	1809.52	+67.08	57.60%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Neil Magny 154, Mike Malott 224
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker (01-13-2024)

Posted on January 8, 2024 by Jason

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#6] Magomed Ankalaev (18-1-1, -504) vs. [#10] Johnny Walker (21-7-0, +359)
Magomed Ankalaev is the All-Time #41 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Magomed Ankalaev (1-0-1, 1 NC)
2023-10-21: NC vs. [#10LHW] Johnny Walker (21-7-0)
2022-12-10: D vs. [#2LHW] Jan Blachowicz (29-10-1) via Draw (Split) in 5:00 of round 5
2022-07-30: W vs. [#15LHW] Anthony Smith (37-19-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:09 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Johnny Walker (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2023-10-21: NC vs. [#6LHW] Magomed Ankalaev (18-1-1)
2023-05-13: W vs. [#15LHW] Anthony Smith (37-19-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2023-01-21: W vs. [#16MW] Paul Craig (17-7-1) via TKO (Punches) in 2:16 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Magomed Ankalaev	-504		79.29%
Elo K170	Magomed Ankalaev	2160.24	+228.44	73.95%
Elo Modified	Magomed Ankalaev	2151.48	+219.07	72.29%
Glicko-1	Magomed Ankalaev	2252.70	+234.45	79.41%
WHR	Magomed Ankalaev	2028.94	+153.19	66.82%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Magomed Ankalaev 84, Johnny Walker 84
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Magomed Ankalaev leads 7-3
.

Flyweight (125)
[#6] Manel Kape (19-6-0, -242) vs. [#10] Matheus Nicolau (19-3-1, +193)
Manel Kape is the All-Time #39 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Matheus Nicolau is the All-Time #33 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Manel Kape (3-0-0)
2023-09-09: W vs. [#133FLY] Felipe dos Santos (8-1-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-12-17: W vs. [#46FLY] David Dvorak (20-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2021-12-04: W vs. [#244BW] Zhalgas Zhumagulov (15-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:02 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Matheus Nicolau (2-1-0)
2023-04-15: L vs. [#5FLY] Brandon Royval (15-7-0) via KO (Knee and Elbows) in 2:09 of round 1
2022-12-03: W vs. [#36FLY] Matt Schnell (16-8-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:44 of round 2
2022-03-26: W vs. [#46FLY] David Dvorak (20-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Manel Kape	-242		67.46%
Elo K170	Matheus Nicolau	1799.59	+1.16	50.13%
Elo Modified	Manel Kape	1808.32	+55.36	56.03%
Glicko-1	Manel Kape	1868.67	+108.98	65.19%
WHR	Manel Kape	1805.79	+116.38	62.99%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Manel Kape 126, Matheus Nicolau 273
Previous Match-up Record: Matheus Nicolau leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#52] Jim Miller (36-17-0, -113) vs. [*] Gabriel Benitez (23-10-0, -109)
Jim Miller is the All-Time #42 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jim Miller (2-1-0)
2023-06-03: W vs. [#144FW] Jesse Butler (12-6-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:23 of round 1
2023-02-18: L vs. [#72FW] Alexander Hernandez (14-7-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-07-02: W vs. [*] Donald Cerrone (36-17-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:32 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Gabriel Benitez (1-2-0)
2022-08-13: W vs. [*] Charlie Ontiveros (11-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:35 of round 1
2022-02-19: L vs. [#66FW] David Onama (11-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:24 of round 1
2021-07-17: L vs. [#27FW] Billy Quarantillo (18-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:40 of round 3

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Jim Miller	-113		50.42%
Elo K170	Jim Miller	1721.27	+271.05	77.53%
Elo Modified	Jim Miller	1715.40	+239.57	74.05%
Glicko-1	Jim Miller	1792.47	+288.68	84.05%
WHR	Jim Miller	1659.89	+211.90	72.47%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jim Miller 224, Gabriel Benitez 518
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Fight Matrix 2023 Awards – Upsets of the Year

Posted on January 1, 2024 by Jason

In case you didn’t know, we have our own list of annual awards we issue. They’ve all been posted for 2023.

There is a lot of fine print on that page, so please read. Furthermore, please be aware that the awards are at minimum, strongly guided by the data.

If time allows, I’d like to provide some commentary for each award in the coming weeks. This post covers the upsets of the year, of which we post four. All four are 100% objective.

Those four flavors are:

“Most Noteworthy (FM)” – Largest difference (by subtraction) in pre-fight ratings using the standard rating points.*
“Most Noteworthy (Glicko)” – Largest difference (by subtraction) in pre-fight ratings using the Glicko rating points.*
“Most Noteworthy (GlickoNoReq)” – Largest difference (by subtraction) in pre-fight ratings using the Glicko rating points.
“Most Lopsided” – Largest difference (by division) in pre-fight ratings using the standard rating points.*

#1, #2, and #4 do not include all fights (hence the asterisk). See the Awards page for more details.

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington (12-16-2023)

Posted on December 11, 2023 by Jason

Welterweight Championship (170)
[#1/#5DD/#2P4P] Leon Edwards (21-3-0, -142) vs. [*] Colby Covington (17-3-0, +117)
Leon Edwards is the All-Time #6 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Colby Covington is the All-Time #8 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Leon Edwards (3-0-0)
2023-03-18: W vs. [#2WW] Kamaru Usman (20-4-0) via MD (48-46, 48-46, 47-47)
2022-08-20: W vs. [#2WW] Kamaru Usman (20-4-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 4:04 of round 5
2021-06-12: W vs. [*] Nate Diaz (21-13-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Colby Covington (2-1-0)
2022-03-05: W vs. [*] Jorge Masvidal (35-17-0) via UD (50-44, 50-45, 49-46)
2021-11-06: L vs. [#2WW] Kamaru Usman (20-4-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 48-47)
2020-09-19: W vs. [*] Tyron Woodley (19-7-1) via TKO (Rib Injury) in 1:19 of round 5

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Leon Edwards	-142		56.01%
Elo K170	Leon Edwards	2466.73	+177.91	69.27%
Elo Modified	Leon Edwards	2360.91	+113.24	62.15%
Glicko-1	Leon Edwards	2423.69	+127.00	67.50%
WHR	Leon Edwards	2174.71	+143.34	65.81%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Leon Edwards 273, Colby Covington 651
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Leon Edwards leads 4-2
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Flyweight Championship (125)
[#1/#2DD/#3P4P] Alexandre Pantoja (26-5-0, -177) vs. [#5] Brandon Royval (15-6-0, +144)
Alexandre Pantoja is the All-Time #10 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Brandon Royval is the All-Time #29 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Alexandre Pantoja (3-0-0)
2023-07-08: W vs. [#2FLY/#3DD/#4P4P] Brandon Moreno (21-7-2) via SD (46-49, 48-47, 48-47)
2022-07-30: W vs. [*] Alex Perez (24-7-0) via Submission (Neck Crank) in 1:31 of round 1
2021-08-21: W vs. [#5FLY] Brandon Royval (15-6-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:46 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Brandon Royval (3-0-0)
2023-04-15: W vs. [#10FLY] Matheus Nicolau (19-3-1) via KO (Knee and Elbows) in 2:09 of round 1
2022-05-07: W vs. [#29FLY] Matt Schnell (16-8-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:14 of round 1
2022-01-15: W vs. [#36FLY] Rogerio Bontorin (18-5-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Alexandre Pantoja	-177		60.92%
Elo K170	Alexandre Pantoja	2080.56	+186.18	70.07%
Elo Modified	Alexandre Pantoja	1984.72	+166.76	67.48%
Glicko-1	Alexandre Pantoja	2050.83	+198.81	75.85%
WHR	Alexandre Pantoja	1958.65	+172.29	68.72%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexandre Pantoja 161, Brandon Royval 245
Previous Match-up Record: Alexandre Pantoja leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Alexandre Pantoja leads 3-1
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Welterweight (170)
[#5] Shavkat Rakhmonov (17-0-0, -596) vs. [#8] Stephen Thompson (17-6-1, +417)
Shavkat Rakhmonov is the All-Time #41 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Stephen Thompson is the All-Time #15 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Shavkat Rakhmonov (3-0-0)
2023-03-04: W vs. [#14WW] Geoff Neal (15-5-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:17 of round 3
2022-06-25: W vs. [#16WW] Neil Magny (28-11-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:58 of round 2
2022-02-05: W vs. [#42WW] Carlston Harris (19-5-0) via KO (Spinning Hook Kick and Punches) in 4:10 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Stephen Thompson (1-2-0)
2022-12-03: W vs. [#13WW] Kevin Holland (25-10-0) via TKO (Corner Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 4
2021-12-18: L vs. [#3WW] Belal Muhammad (23-3-0) via UD (30-25, 30-26, 30-26)
2021-07-10: L vs. [#4WW] Gilbert Burns (22-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Shavkat Rakhmonov	-596		81.57%
Elo K170	Shavkat Rakhmonov	2176.90	+166.93	68.19%
Elo Modified	Shavkat Rakhmonov	2133.61	+135.74	64.43%
Glicko-1	Shavkat Rakhmonov	2237.18	+178.07	73.59%
WHR	Shavkat Rakhmonov	2157.60	+202.68	71.63%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Shavkat Rakhmonov 287, Stephen Thompson 378
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez (12-09-2023)

Posted on December 4, 2023 by Jason

Bantamweight (135)
[#11] Yadong Song (20-8-1, -364) vs. [#18] Chris Gutierrez (20-5-2, +275)

Last 3 Fights: Yadong Song (2-1-0)
2023-04-29: W vs. [#25BW] Ricky Simon (21-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:10 of round 5
2022-09-17: L vs. [#4BW] Cory Sandhagen (17-4-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 4
2022-03-12: W vs. [*] Marlon Moraes (23-13-1) via KO (Punches) in 2:06 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Chris Gutierrez (2-1-0)
2023-10-14: W vs. [#72BW] Heili Alateng (16-9-2) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-04-15: L vs. [#12BW] Pedro Munhoz (20-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-11-12: W vs. [*] Frankie Edgar (24-11-1) via KO (Knee) in 2:01 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Yadong Song	-364		74.62%
Elo K170	Yadong Song	1965.20	+108.42	62.14%
Elo Modified	Yadong Song	1936.41	+126.63	63.51%
Glicko-1	Yadong Song	1985.53	+146.44	69.91%
WHR	Yadong Song	1842.05	+136.13	65.07%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Yadong Song 224, Chris Gutierrez 56
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#12] Khalil Rountree (12-6-0, -236) vs. [#14] Anthony Smith (37-18-0, +188)
Anthony Smith is the All-Time #30 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Khalil Rountree (3-0-0)
2023-08-12: W vs. [#31LHW] Chris Daukaus (12-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:40 of round 1
2022-10-29: W vs. [#18LHW] Dustin Jacoby (19-7-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2022-03-12: W vs. [*] Karl Roberson (9-6-0) via TKO (Body Kick and Punches) in 0:25 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Anthony Smith (1-2-0)
2023-08-26: W vs. [#16LHW] Ryan Spann (21-9-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-05-13: L vs. [#10LHW] Johnny Walker (21-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2022-07-30: L vs. [#6LHW] Magomed Ankalaev (18-1-1) via TKO (Punches) in 3:09 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Khalil Rountree	-236		66.92%
Elo K170	Anthony Smith	1904.80	+115.99	62.94%
Elo Modified	Anthony Smith	1848.88	+89.78	59.70%
Glicko-1	Anthony Smith	1923.01	+113.14	65.73%
WHR	Anthony Smith	1765.30	+18.37	52.10%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Khalil Rountree 119, Anthony Smith 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Anthony Smith leads 1-0
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Flyweight (125)
[#30] Allan Nascimento (20-6-0, -255) vs. [*] Su Mudaerji (16-5-0, +201)

Last 3 Fights: Allan Nascimento (2-1-0)
2023-01-14: W vs. [#129FLY] Carlos Hernandez (9-2-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:16 of round 1
2022-05-14: W vs. [#65FLY] Jake Hadley (10-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-10-30: L vs. [#16FLY] Tagir Ulanbekov (15-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Su Mudaerji (2-1-0)
2022-07-16: L vs. [#29FLY] Matt Schnell (16-8-0) via Technical Submission (Triangle Choke) in 4:24 of round 2
2021-01-20: W vs. [*] Zarrukh Adashev (4-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2020-11-28: W vs. [#123FLY] Malcolm Gordon (14-7-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:44 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Allan Nascimento	-255		68.37%
Elo K170	Allan Nascimento	1648.13	+228.47	73.96%
Elo Modified	Allan Nascimento	1698.60	+265.11	76.14%
Glicko-1	Allan Nascimento	1762.65	+323.38	86.55%
WHR	Allan Nascimento	1740.02	+345.78	82.92%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Allan Nascimento 329, Su Mudaerji 511
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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