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Fight Matrix

Fight Matrix Program – UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier (06-01-2024)

Posted on May 27, 2024 by Jason

Lightweight Championship (155)
[#1/#1DD/#3P4P] Islam Makhachev (25-1-0, -632) vs. [#6] Dustin Poirier (30-8-0, +428)
Islam Makhachev is the All-Time #8 ranked Lightweight and #42 ranked Absolute fighter.
Dustin Poirier is the All-Time #4 ranked Lightweight and #27 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Islam Makhachev (3-0-0)
2023-10-21: W vs. [#2FW/#8DD] Alexander Volkanovski (26-4-0) via KO (Head Kick and Punches) in 3:06 of round 1
2023-02-11: W vs. [#2FW/#8DD] Alexander Volkanovski (26-4-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 48-47)
2022-10-22: W vs. [#3LW] Charles Oliveira (34-10-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 3:16 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Dustin Poirier (2-1-0)
2024-03-09: W vs. [#18LW] Benoit St. Denis (13-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:32 of round 2
2023-07-29: L vs. [#5LW] Justin Gaethje (25-5-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 1:00 of round 2
2022-11-12: W vs. [*] Michael Chandler (23-8-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:00 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Islam Makhachev -632 82.00%
Elo K170 Islam Makhachev 2525.11 +256.29 81.39%
Elo Modified Islam Makhachev 2453.78 +232.02 79.18%
Glicko-1 Islam Makhachev 2573.50 +268.38 82.42%
WHR Islam Makhachev 2378.24 +318.86 86.24%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Islam Makhachev 224, Dustin Poirier 84
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Islam Makhachev leads 3-2
.

Middleweight (185)
[#3] Sean Strickland (28-6-0, -221) vs. [#16] Paulo Costa (14-3-0, +180)
Sean Strickland is the All-Time #19 ranked Middleweight fighter.
Paulo Costa is the All-Time #26 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Sean Strickland (2-1-0)
2024-01-20: L vs. [#2MW] Dricus Du Plessis (21-2-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)
2023-09-09: W vs. [#1MW/#10DD] Israel Adesanya (24-3-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2023-07-01: W vs. [#57MW] Abusupiyan Magomedov (26-6-1) via TKO in 4:20 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Paulo Costa (1-2-0)
2024-02-17: L vs. [#6MW] Robert Whittaker (25-7-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-08-20: W vs. [*] Luke Rockhold (16-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-10-23: L vs. [#8MW] Marvin Vettori (19-7-1) via UD (48-46, 48-46, 48-46)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Sean Strickland -221 65.84%
Elo K170 Sean Strickland 2086.64 +138.31 68.91%
Elo Modified Sean Strickland 2129.57 +178.51 73.64%
Glicko-1 Sean Strickland 2206.22 +181.22 73.95%
WHR Sean Strickland 2060.68 +220.28 78.04%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sean Strickland 133, Paulo Costa 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Sean Strickland leads 2-1
.

Middleweight (185)
[#17WW] Kevin Holland (25-11-0, -249) vs. [#44] Michal Oleksiejczuk (20-7-0, +198)

Last 3 Fights: Kevin Holland (1-2-0)
2024-03-09: L vs. [#13WW] Michael Page (22-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-09-16: L vs. [#6WW] Jack Della Maddalena (17-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-07-29: W vs. [#45WW] Michael Chiesa (16-7-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 2:39 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Michal Oleksiejczuk (1-2-0)
2024-03-09: L vs. [#19MW] Michel Pereira (32-11-0) via Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:01 of round 1
2023-08-26: W vs. [#75WW] Chidi Njokuani (23-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:16 of round 1
2023-04-29: L vs. [#17MW] Caio Borralho (16-1-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:49 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Kevin Holland -249 68.01%
Elo K170 Kevin Holland 1836.81 +130.42 67.93%
Elo Modified Kevin Holland 1874.82 +156.29 71.09%
Glicko-1 Kevin Holland 1957.17 +210.08 77.02%
WHR Kevin Holland 1837.20 +169.66 72.64%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kevin Holland 84, Michal Oleksiejczuk 84
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#8] Jailton Almeida (20-3-0, -269) vs. [#21] Alexander Romanov (17-2-0, +216)

Last 3 Fights: Jailton Almeida (2-1-0)
2024-03-09: L vs. [#5HW+] Curtis Blaydes (18-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:36 of round 2
2023-11-04: W vs. [#13HW+] Derrick Lewis (28-12-0) via UD (50-44, 50-44, 50-45)
2023-05-13: W vs. [#12HW+] Jairzinho Rozenstruik (14-5-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:43 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Alexander Romanov (1-2-0)
2023-07-01: W vs. [#28HW+] Blagoy Ivanov (19-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-03-11: L vs. [#6HW+] Alexander Volkov (37-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:16 of round 1
2022-08-20: L vs. [#9HW+] Marcin Tybura (25-8-0) via MD (29-28, 29-28, 28-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jailton Almeida -269 69.72%
Elo K170 Jailton Almeida 1904.09 +112.59 65.66%
Elo Modified Jailton Almeida 1908.36 +81.94 61.58%
Glicko-1 Jailton Almeida 1974.11 +88.51 62.47%
WHR Jailton Almeida 1891.02 +80.76 61.42%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jailton Almeida 84, Alexander Romanov 336
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#23] Randy Brown (18-5-0, -172) vs. [#48] Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (24-7-1, +141)

Last 3 Fights: Randy Brown (2-1-0)
2024-02-03: W vs. [#53WW] Muslim Salikhov (19-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:17 of round 1
2023-06-24: W vs. [#140WW] Wellington Turman (18-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-02-11: L vs. [#6WW] Jack Della Maddalena (17-2-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:13 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (2-0-1)
2023-11-04: D vs. [#47WW] Rinat Fakhretdinov (23-2-1) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3
2023-06-03: W vs. [#102WW] Abubakar Nurmagomedov (17-4-1) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-10-30: W vs. [#18LW] Benoit St. Denis (13-2-0) via UD (29-26, 29-26, 29-26)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Randy Brown -172 60.38%
Elo K170 Randy Brown 1944.89 +37.10 55.32%
Elo Modified Randy Brown 1908.39 +13.35 51.92%
Glicko-1 Randy Brown 1941.16 +6.11 50.88%
WHR Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 1874.21 +93.95 63.20%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Randy Brown 119, Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 210
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Randy Brown leads 1-0
.

Middleweight (185)
[#61] Roman Kopylov (12-3-0, -125) vs. [#104] Cesar Almeida (5-0-0, +103)

Last 3 Fights: Roman Kopylov (2-1-0)
2024-02-17: L vs. [#26MW] Anthony Hernandez (12-2-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:23 of round 2
2023-09-16: W vs. [#114MW] Josh Fremd (11-5-0) via KO (Punch to the Body) in 4:44 of round 2
2023-07-29: W vs. [#161MW] Claudio Ribeiro (11-5-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 0:33 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Cesar Almeida (3-0-0)
2024-04-06: W vs. [#164MW] Dylan Budka (7-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:13 of round 2
2023-08-08: W vs. [#168MW] Lucas Fernando (10-3-0) via UD ()
2021-12-18: W vs. [NA] Danilo de Souza Silva (8-34-1) via KO in 0:38 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Roman Kopylov -125 53.00%
Elo K170 Roman Kopylov 1695.35 +253.57 81.15%
Elo Modified Roman Kopylov 1741.44 +234.79 79.44%
Glicko-1 Roman Kopylov 1788.06 +280.56 83.41%
WHR Roman Kopylov 1709.38 +99.52 63.94%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Roman Kopylov 105, Cesar Almeida 56
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#28] Grant Dawson (20-2-1, -354) vs. [#113] Joe Solecki (13-4-0, +273)

Last 3 Fights: Grant Dawson (2-1-0)
2023-10-07: L vs. [#19LW] Bobby Green (32-15-1) via KO (Punches) in 0:33 of round 1
2023-07-01: W vs. [#69LW] Damir Ismagulov (24-3-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-11-05: W vs. [#94LW] Mark O. Madsen (12-2-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:05 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Joe Solecki (2-1-0)
2023-12-02: L vs. [#31LW] Drakkar Klose (15-2-1) via KO (Slam) in 1:41 of round 1
2023-02-25: W vs. [#382LW] Carl Deaton (17-7-0) via Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:55 of round 2
2022-06-04: W vs. [#226LW] Alex da Silva Coelho (24-5-0) via MD (28-28, 28-27, 29-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Grant Dawson -354 74.41%
Elo K170 Grant Dawson 1952.17 +283.45 83.64%
Elo Modified Grant Dawson 1914.29 +231.31 79.11%
Glicko-1 Grant Dawson 1961.30 +273.85 82.87%
WHR Grant Dawson 1835.01 +212.19 77.23%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Grant Dawson 238, Joe Solecki 182
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Grant Dawson leads 1-0
.

Welterweight (170)
[#44] Philip Rowe (10-4-0, +132) vs. [#57] Jake Matthews (19-7-0, -160)

Last 3 Fights: Philip Rowe (2-1-0)
2023-06-24: L vs. [#20WW] Neil Magny (29-11-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2022-12-03: W vs. [#86WW] Niko Price (15-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:26 of round 3
2022-02-05: W vs. [*] Jason Witt (19-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:15 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Jake Matthews (1-2-0)
2023-11-18: L vs. [#24WW] Michael Morales (16-0-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-07-29: W vs. [#340LW] Darrius Flowers (12-7-1) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:37 of round 2
2022-12-17: L vs. [#74WW] Matthew Semelsberger (11-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jake Matthews -160 58.81%
Elo K170 Jake Matthews 1682.02 +55.33 57.90%
Elo Modified Jake Matthews 1691.69 +24.62 53.54%
Glicko-1 Philip Rowe 1754.34 +11.99 51.73%
WHR Jake Matthews 1617.17 +2.16 50.31%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Philip Rowe 343, Jake Matthews 196
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#36] Alex Morono (24-9-0, -236) vs. [#86] Niko Price (15-7-0, +190)

Last 3 Fights: Alex Morono (2-1-0)
2024-04-06: W vs. [#114WW] Court McGee (21-13-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-10-07: L vs. [#12WW] Joaquin Buckley (19-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-27)
2023-05-13: W vs. [#51WW] Tim Means (33-16-1) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:09 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Niko Price (1-2-0)
2023-07-08: L vs. [*] Robbie Lawler (30-16-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:38 of round 1
2022-12-03: L vs. [#44WW] Philip Rowe (10-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:26 of round 3
2021-10-02: W vs. [#182WW] Alex Oliveira (25-15-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Alex Morono -236 67.07%
Elo K170 Alex Morono 1751.97 +214.94 77.51%
Elo Modified Alex Morono 1789.22 +241.29 80.04%
Glicko-1 Alex Morono 1848.14 +300.77 84.96%
WHR Alex Morono 1683.66 +228.16 78.81%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alex Morono 56, Niko Price 329
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#80] Bassil Hafez (8-4-1, -296) vs. [*] Mickey Gall (7-5-0, +236)

Last 3 Fights: Bassil Hafez (2-1-0)
2023-07-15: L vs. [#6WW] Jack Della Maddalena (17-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-02-17: W vs. [#138WW] Evan Cutts (17-7-0) via KO (Punch) in 3:50 of round 3
2022-02-06: W vs. [#143WW] Anthony Ivy (14-7-0) via SD ()

Last 3 Fights: Mickey Gall (1-2-0)
2022-04-09: L vs. [#79WW] Mike Malott (10-2-1) via TKO (Punches) in 3:41 of round 1
2021-12-04: L vs. [#36WW] Alex Morono (24-9-0) via UD ()
2021-07-24: W vs. [*] Jordan Williams (9-6-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:57 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Bassil Hafez -296 71.52%
Elo K170 Bassil Hafez 1462.38 +53.33 57.61%
Elo Modified Bassil Hafez 1530.15 +80.73 61.41%
Glicko-1 Bassil Hafez 1592.38 +128.83 67.74%
WHR Bassil Hafez 1610.26 +159.58 71.47%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Bassil Hafez 322, Mickey Gall 784
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Bantamweight (135)
[#22] Ailin Perez (9-2-0, -209) vs. [#37] Joselyne Edwards (13-5-0, +173)

Last 3 Fights: Ailin Perez (2-1-0)
2023-11-18: W vs. [#47BW] Lucie Pudilova (14-9-0) via UD (29-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-07-15: W vs. [#93BW] Ashlee Evans-Smith (6-6-0) via UD (30-25, 30-25, 30-26)
2022-09-03: L vs. [#42BW] Stephanie Egger (8-5-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:54 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Joselyne Edwards (2-1-0)
2023-09-02: L vs. [#8BW] Nora Cornolle (8-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2023-04-15: W vs. [#47BW] Lucie Pudilova (14-9-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2022-07-30: W vs. [#113FLY] Ji Yeon Kim (9-7-2) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ailin Perez -209 64.87%
Elo K170 Ailin Perez 1397.65 +50.57 57.23%
Elo Modified Ailin Perez 1467.91 +150.79 70.43%
Glicko-1 Ailin Perez 1458.59 +167.94 72.45%
WHR Ailin Perez 1371.60 +156.45 71.11%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ailin Perez 196, Joselyne Edwards 273
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Flyweight (125)
[#50] Andre Lima (8-0-0, -207) vs. [#189] Mitch Raposo (10-1-0, +172)

Last 3 Fights: Andre Lima (3-0-0)
2024-03-23: W vs. [#96FLY] Igor da Silva (8-1-0) via Disqualification (Biting) in 2:52 of round 2
2023-10-10: W vs. [#474FW] Rickson Thai Zenidim Buen (15-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-07-07: W vs. [#1200BW] Igor Taylon (10-5-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 4:59 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Mitch Raposo (3-0-0)
2024-01-27: W vs. [#805FLY] Justin Valentin (4-3-0) via NC in 3:03 of round 4
2023-05-27: W vs. [#521FLY] Tyler Smythe (4-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:49 of round 1
2022-11-17: W vs. [*] Flavio Carvalho (7-5-1) via KO (Punch) in 0:19 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Andre Lima -207 64.71%
Elo K170 Andre Lima 1631.11 +272.92 82.80%
Elo Modified Andre Lima 1580.76 +192.27 75.15%
Glicko-1 Andre Lima 1562.59 +150.04 70.34%
WHR Andre Lima 1452.57 +118.79 66.46%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Andre Lima 70, Mitch Raposo 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
 



Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Islam Makhachev
Highest Stored DD Rating: Islam Makhachev
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Fair [**½]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Large [***½]
Run Date: 2024-5-26

2 thoughts on “Fight Matrix Program – UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier (06-01-2024)”

  1. Jason says:
    June 2, 2024 at 3:44 pm

    I probably should add a note…

    If I take the odds I have for the involved fighters and convert to implied probability, they will add up to more than 100%….

    So I normalize to 100% and post the result calc’d from that.

    Reply
  2. Luke says:
    June 2, 2024 at 1:38 pm

    The betting Odds Win % seems a bit off
    eg.
    Betting Odds Andre Lima -207 64.71%

    -207 = 67.4% not 64.71%

    Have you removed the vig or something?

    Reply

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