Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez (04-27-2024)

Apr 22, 2024
Jason

Flyweight (125)
[#11] Matheus Nicolau (19-3-1, -183) vs. [#60] Alex Perez (24-8-0, +152)
Matheus Nicolau is the All-Time #35 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Alex Perez is the All-Time #36 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Matheus Nicolau (2-1-0)
2023-04-15: L vs. [#2FLY/#6DD] Brandon Royval (16-7-0) via KO (Knee and Elbows) in 2:09 of round 1
2022-12-03: W vs. [#58FLY] Matt Schnell (16-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:44 of round 2
2022-03-26: W vs. [#53FLY] David Dvorak (20-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Alex Perez (0-3-0)
2024-03-02: L vs. [#8FLY] Muhammad Mokaev (12-0-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-07-30: L vs. [#1FLY/#3DD/#3P4P] Alexandre Pantoja (27-5-0) via Submission (Neck Crank) in 1:31 of round 1
2020-11-21: L vs. [#8BW/#10P4P] Deiveson Figueiredo (23-3-1) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:57 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Matheus Nicolau -183 61.97%
Elo K170 Matheus Nicolau 1799.85 +98.94 63.87%
Elo Modified Matheus Nicolau 1753.52 +57.73 58.23%
Glicko-1 Matheus Nicolau 1760.10 +35.02 55.02%
WHR Matheus Nicolau 1695.15 +57.28 58.17%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Matheus Nicolau 378, Alex Perez 56
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#18] Ryan Spann (21-9-0, -193) vs. [#64] Bogdan Guskov (15-3-0, +158)

Last 3 Fights: Ryan Spann (1-2-0)
2023-08-26: L vs. [#17LHW] Anthony Smith (37-19-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-03-11: L vs. [#9LHW] Nikita Krylov (30-9-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 3:38 of round 1
2022-11-12: W vs. [*] Dominick Reyes (12-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:20 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Bogdan Guskov (2-1-0)
2024-02-10: W vs. [#120LHW] Zac Pauga (6-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:38 of round 1
2023-09-02: L vs. [#15LHW] Volkan Oezdemir (19-7-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:46 of round 1
2023-03-18: W vs. [#190HW+] Carlos Eduardo (20-11-0) via TKO in 0:25 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ryan Spann -193 62.95%
Elo K170 Ryan Spann 1742.06 +171.79 72.89%
Elo Modified Ryan Spann 1808.25 +201.55 76.14%
Glicko-1 Ryan Spann 1884.59 +226.05 78.60%
WHR Ryan Spann 1706.17 +105.89 64.78%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ryan Spann 245, Bogdan Guskov 77
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Flyweight (125)
[#15] Karine Silva (17-4-0, -147) vs. [#17] Ariane Lipski (17-8-0, +121)

Last 3 Fights: Karine Silva (3-0-0)
2023-08-19: W vs. [#34FLY] Maryna Moroz (11-6-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:59 of round 1
2023-06-03: W vs. [#57FLY] Ketlen Souza (13-4-0) via Submission (Kneebar) in 1:45 of round 1
2022-06-04: W vs. [*] Poliana Botelho (9-5-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 4:55 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Ariane Lipski (3-0-0)
2023-12-16: W vs. [#28FLY] Casey ONeill (9-2-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 1:18 of round 2
2023-07-01: W vs. [#33FLY] Melissa Gatto (8-2-2) via SD (28-29, 30-27, 29-28)
2023-03-11: W vs. [#25FLY] J.J. Aldrich (13-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Karine Silva -147 56.80%
Elo K170 Karine Silva 1674.63 +72.02 60.22%
Elo Modified Karine Silva 1689.78 +110.32 65.36%
Glicko-1 Karine Silva 1765.73 +200.47 76.02%
WHR Karine Silva 1682.86 +191.75 75.10%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Karine Silva 252, Ariane Lipski 133
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#31] Mateusz Rebecki (20-1-0, -234) vs. [#41] Joel Alvarez (20-3-0, +185)

Last 3 Fights: Mateusz Rebecki (3-0-0)
2023-11-11: W vs. [#148LW] Roosevelt Roberts (12-5-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 3:08 of round 1
2023-06-24: W vs. [#49LW] Loik Radzhabov (19-5-1) via TKO (Punch) in 2:36 of round 2
2023-01-14: W vs. [#579LW] Nick Fiore (6-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)

Last 3 Fights: Joel Alvarez (2-1-0)
2023-07-22: W vs. [#116LW] Marc Diakiese (17-7-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 4:26 of round 2
2022-02-26: L vs. [#2LW] Arman Tsarukyan (22-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:57 of round 2
2021-11-13: W vs. [#52LW] Thiago Moises (18-7-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 3:01 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Mateusz Rebecki -234 66.62%
Elo K170 Mateusz Rebecki 1964.63 +134.73 68.47%
Elo Modified Mateusz Rebecki 1978.36 +143.88 69.60%
Glicko-1 Mateusz Rebecki 2081.77 +164.35 72.03%
WHR Mateusz Rebecki 2032.40 +166.89 72.33%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mateusz Rebecki 168, Joel Alvarez 280
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#44] Victor Henry (23-6-0, -521) vs. [#89] Rani Yahya (28-11-1, +375)
Rani Yahya is the All-Time #36 ranked Bantamweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Victor Henry (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2023-10-21: NC vs. [#65BW] Javid Basharat (14-1-0)
2023-03-11: W vs. [#97BW] Tony Gravely (23-9-0) via SD (30-27, 29-28, 28-29)
2022-10-15: L vs. [*] Raphael Assuncao (28-10-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Rani Yahya (2-1-0)
2023-04-22: L vs. [#25BW] Montel Jackson (13-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:42 of round 1
2021-11-20: W vs. [#80BW] Kyung Ho Kang (19-10-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-03-13: W vs. [*] Ray Rodriguez (16-8-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:09 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Victor Henry -521 79.94%
Elo K170 Victor Henry 1815.92 +120.67 66.70%
Elo Modified Victor Henry 1773.08 +73.42 60.41%
Glicko-1 Victor Henry 1787.39 +55.45 57.91%
WHR Victor Henry 1692.67 +78.60 61.12%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Victor Henry 189, Rani Yahya 371
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#36] Tim Means (33-15-1, +237) vs. [#85] Uros Medic (9-2-0, -305)

Last 3 Fights: Tim Means (1-2-0)
2023-09-23: W vs. [#82WW] Andre Fialho (16-8-0) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 1:15 of round 3
2023-05-13: L vs. [#35WW] Alex Morono (24-9-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:09 of round 2
2022-10-29: L vs. [#32WW] Max Griffin (20-10-0) via SD (29-28, 30-27, 28-29)

Last 3 Fights: Uros Medic (2-1-0)
2023-11-18: L vs. [#68WW] Myktybek Orolbai (12-1-2) via Submission (Neck Crank) in 4:12 of round 2
2023-07-29: W vs. [#74WW] Matthew Semelsberger (11-7-0) via TKO (Spinning Backfist and Punches) in 2:36 of round 3
2022-05-21: W vs. [#340LW] Omar Morales (11-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:05 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Uros Medic -305 71.73%
Elo K170 Tim Means 1671.73 +157.13 71.19%
Elo Modified Tim Means 1728.78 +182.06 74.04%
Glicko-1 Tim Means 1785.53 +206.99 76.70%
WHR Tim Means 1628.24 +65.97 59.38%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Tim Means 217, Uros Medic 161
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#129] Austen Lane (12-4-0, +187) vs. [#133] Jhonata Diniz (6-0-0, -235)

Last 3 Fights: Austen Lane (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2023-09-09: L vs. [#73HW+] Justin Tafa (7-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:22 of round 1
2023-06-24: NC vs. [#73HW+] Justin Tafa (7-4-0)
2022-09-20: W vs. [#251HW+] Richard Jacobi (7-2-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:34 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Jhonata Diniz (3-0-0)
2023-09-12: W vs. [#218HW+] Eduardo Neves (7-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:15 of round 1
2023-03-19: W vs. [#592HW+] Rodrigo Duarte (11-8-0) via TKO (Retirement) in 4:16 of round 1
2023-01-28: W vs. [NA] Carlos Nascimento Junior (1-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:50 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jhonata Diniz -235 66.81%
Elo K170 Jhonata Diniz 1416.70 +10.04 51.44%
Elo Modified Jhonata Diniz 1489.31 +3.74 50.54%
Glicko-1 Jhonata Diniz 1481.02 +7.42 51.07%
WHR Jhonata Diniz 1387.18 +23.97 53.44%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Austen Lane 231, Jhonata Diniz 228
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#330] Maheshate Hayisaer (9-3-0, -214) vs. [#440] Gabriel Benitez (23-11-0, +175)

Last 3 Fights: Maheshate Hayisaer (1-2-0)
2023-05-20: L vs. [#182LW] Viacheslav Borshchev (7-3-1) via TKO (Punches) in 2:37 of round 2
2022-12-17: L vs. [#46LW] Rafa Garcia (16-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-06-11: W vs. [#78LW] Steve Garcia (15-5-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:14 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Gabriel Benitez (1-2-0)
2024-01-13: L vs. [#60LW] Jim Miller (37-18-0) via Submission (Face Crank) in 3:25 of round 3
2022-08-13: W vs. [*] Charlie Ontiveros (11-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:35 of round 1
2022-02-19: L vs. [#71FW] David Onama (11-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:24 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Maheshate Hayisaer -214 65.20%
Elo K170 Gabriel Benitez 1420.97 +80.49 61.38%
Elo Modified Gabriel Benitez 1459.77 +99.38 63.93%
Glicko-1 Gabriel Benitez 1461.16 +71.10 60.09%
WHR Maheshate Hayisaer 1407.60 +20.22 52.91%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Maheshate Hayisaer 343, Gabriel Benitez 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#171] Austin Hubbard (15-7-0, +127) vs. [*] Michal Figlak (8-1-0, -155)

Last 3 Fights: Austin Hubbard (2-1-0)
2023-08-19: L vs. [#123LW] Kurt Holobaugh (20-8-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 2:39 of round 2
2022-10-14: W vs. [#774LW] Kegan Agnew (5-2-0) via UD ()
2022-07-23: W vs. [#478WW] Julian Lane (13-10-1) via UD ()

Last 3 Fights: Michal Figlak (2-1-0)
2022-09-03: L vs. [#80LW] Fares Ziam (15-4-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2022-07-22: W vs. [#230LW] Agy Sardari (17-4-0) via UD ()
2021-12-11: W vs. [*] Steve McIntosh (7-3-0) via UD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Michal Figlak -155 57.97%
Elo K170 Austin Hubbard 1657.36 +187.93 74.68%
Elo Modified Austin Hubbard 1650.28 +137.03 68.76%
Glicko-1 Austin Hubbard 1629.68 +155.17 70.96%
WHR Austin Hubbard 1528.56 +30.79 54.42%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Austin Hubbard 252, Michal Figlak 602
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#56] Dontale Mayes (10-7-0, +102) vs. [#128] Caio Machado (8-2-1, -124)

Last 3 Fights: Dontale Mayes (1-2-0)
2023-11-04: L vs. [#23HW+] Rodrigo Nascimento (12-1-0) via UD ()
2023-06-03: W vs. [#72HW+] Andrei Arlovski (34-23-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:17 of round 2
2023-02-25: L vs. [#37HW+] Augusto Sakai (16-5-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Caio Machado (2-1-0)
2023-11-18: L vs. [#58HW+] Michael Parkin (9-0-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-08-08: W vs. [#222HW+] Kevin Szaflarski (11-2-0) via UD ()
2022-12-01: W vs. [*] Edison Lopes (12-8-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:59 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Caio Machado -124 52.79%
Elo K170 Dontale Mayes 1437.70 +13.62 51.96%
Elo Modified Dontale Mayes 1507.95 +69.81 59.91%
Glicko-1 Dontale Mayes 1514.74 +54.61 57.79%
WHR Caio Machado 1461.94 +2.55 50.37%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dontale Mayes 175, Caio Machado 161
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#185] James Llontop (14-2-0, -112) vs. [#209WW] Gabriel Green (11-5-0, -111)

Last 3 Fights: James Llontop (3-0-0)
2023-09-12: W vs. [#386LW] Malik Lewis (6-2-0) via UD ()
2023-05-04: W vs. [NA] Orlanison Neris de Olivei (20-14-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:00 of round 3
2023-02-02: W vs. [#1724FW] Ranieri Yuri Zenidim Buen (19-18-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:44 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Gabriel Green (1-2-0)
2023-05-13: L vs. [#86WW] Bryan Battle (10-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:14 of round 1
2022-07-02: L vs. [#10WW] Ian Garry (14-0-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-04-30: W vs. [#275WW] Yohan Lainesse (9-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:02 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds James Llontop -112 50.10%
Elo K170 James Llontop 1642.24 +189.39 74.84%
Elo Modified James Llontop 1644.49 +129.16 67.77%
Glicko-1 James Llontop 1670.29 +147.04 69.98%
WHR James Llontop 1517.10 +30.58 54.39%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: James Llontop 228, Gabriel Green 350
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Flyweight (125)
[#44] Ivana Siric Petrovic (6-1-0, -492) vs. [#165] Na Liang (19-7-0, +356)

Last 3 Fights: Ivana Siric Petrovic (2-1-0)
2023-07-01: L vs. [#19FLY] Luana Carolina (10-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-04-07: W vs. [#44SW] Ewelina Wozniak (8-2-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:05 of round 4
2022-09-02: W vs. [#78FLY] Alexandra Tekenah (4-1-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:43 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Na Liang (0-3-0)
2023-08-26: L vs. [#25FLY] J.J. Aldrich (13-6-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 4:49 of round 2
2022-06-11: L vs. [*] Silvana Gomez Juarez (11-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:22 of round 1
2021-04-24: L vs. [*] Ariane Carnelossi (14-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:28 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ivana Siric Petrovic -492 79.12%
Elo K170 Ivana Siric Petrovic 1344.69 +203.50 76.34%
Elo Modified Ivana Siric Petrovic 1421.45 +245.14 80.39%
Glicko-1 Ivana Siric Petrovic 1373.11 +223.78 78.38%
WHR Ivana Siric Petrovic 1362.05 +188.65 74.76%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ivana Siric Petrovic 301, Na Liang 245
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#53] Jonathan Pearce (14-5-0, -164) vs. [#71] David Onama (11-2-0, +137)

Last 3 Fights: Jonathan Pearce (2-1-0)
2023-11-18: L vs. [#26FW] Joanderson Brito (16-3-1) via Submission (Ninja Choke) in 3:54 of round 2
2022-12-03: W vs. [#66FW] Darren Elkins (28-11-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-07-23: W vs. [#395LW] Makwan Amirkhani (17-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:10 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: David Onama (2-1-0)
2023-06-24: W vs. [#117FW] Gabriel Santos (10-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:13 of round 2
2022-08-13: L vs. [#42FW] Nate Landwehr (18-5-0) via MD (28-28, 29-27, 29-27)
2022-07-09: W vs. [#41BW] Garrett Armfield (10-3-0) via Technical Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 3:13 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jonathan Pearce -164 59.55%
Elo K170 Jonathan Pearce 1696.54 +64.75 59.21%
Elo Modified Jonathan Pearce 1707.07 +39.57 55.67%
Glicko-1 David Onama 1757.05 +19.87 52.86%
WHR David Onama 1704.60 +28.02 54.02%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jonathan Pearce 161, David Onama 308
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Strawweight (115)
[#57FLY] Ketlen Souza (13-4-0, -339) vs. [#115] Marnic Mann (6-2-0, +258)

Last 3 Fights: Ketlen Souza (2-1-0)
2023-06-03: L vs. [#15FLY] Karine Silva (17-4-0) via Submission (Kneebar) in 1:45 of round 1
2023-01-18: W vs. [#72FLY] Kristina Williams (7-4-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 48-47)
2022-09-28: W vs. [*] Maiju Suotama (8-7-0) via UD ()

Last 3 Fights: Marnic Mann (1-2-0)
2023-09-16: L vs. [#30SW] Josefine Lindgren Knutsso (7-0-0) via UD (30-24, 30-25, 30-27)
2023-04-21: W vs. [#172SW] Amber Brown (7-7-0) via UD ()
2022-09-13: L vs. [#49SW] Bruna Brasil (9-4-1) via KO (Head Kick) in 4:33 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ketlen Souza -339 73.43%
Elo K170 Ketlen Souza 1398.91 +134.81 68.48%
Elo Modified Ketlen Souza 1408.70 +103.93 64.52%
Glicko-1 Ketlen Souza 1387.24 +159.53 71.47%
WHR Ketlen Souza 1358.73 +198.87 75.86%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ketlen Souza 329, Marnic Mann 224
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
 



Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Ryan Spann
Highest Stored DD Rating: Matheus Nicolau
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Mateusz Rebecki vs. Joel Alvarez
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Matheus Nicolau vs. Alex Perez
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Great [****]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Very Low [*½]
Run Date: 2024-4-21

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