Currently, I am working on two flavors for the divisional ranking pages:
Standard Elo
The standard Elo will remain as is — unless I find a better Starter Rating / K-Factor combination for the sport as a whole or need to fix a bug.
Modified Elo
As you may know, the Elo system is a popular rating instrument used in the world of chess. In the combat sports world, it has inspired the widely known boxing ratings over at BoxRec and to a lesser degree, the standard system used here. From a broader standpoint, as far as I know, it is considered the grandfather of mathematical-based rating systems.
Now, it does have its flaws and those flaws were on display for many years over at site called MMA Elo, but those issues were compounded by the lackluster data efforts by that site’s creator — a problem you won’t see here.
At its core, Elo is simple math. That’s what makes it so interesting. It is very simple, but does offer a few variables that can be optimized for the specific task at hand, most notably, the K-factor. Simply put, the K-factor affects the amount of change that a single contest can have — the lower the K-factor, the smaller the potential change and vice-versa.
In chess, a sport that often has a frequent, consistent and logical schedule, the K-factor is quite low, commonly between 16 and 32. It turns out, a K-factor somewhere between 150 and 200 yields the most accurate prediction rates in MMA.
So, to start, the Elo system will be implemented with a starter rating of 1000 and a K-factor in the neighborhood of 170. There will be no provisional system and no K-factor tiers (yet), but the plan is to offer a few flavors and perhaps incorporate some other common systems as well. These flavors will be entirely driven by prediction rates in some shape or form and there will be no emphasis on subjectivity, so things could get a little wacky.
The “standard” system you’ve seen for over a decade will still be the default, but we’ll be giving you the option to filter the divisional pages by system. The one thing to keep in mind, is that the Top X fighters displayed will (at least for now) be driven by the standard system only — which means that the #251 Heavyweight by our standard measure, may be the #249 Heavyweight by Elo, but since he didn’t make the standard cut, he won’t be in the lists. This may or may not change in the future.
Any and all comments are welcome.
Notable Info
Heavyweight Championship (265)
[#1/#4DD/#3P4P] Stipe Miocic (18-2-0, -249) vs. [#1LHW/#2DD/#4P4P] Daniel Cormier (20-1-0, +200)
Stipe Miocic is the All-Time #5 ranked Heavyweight and #23 ranked Absolute fighter.
Daniel Cormier is the All-Time #29 ranked Heavyweight and #21 ranked Absolute fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Stipe Miocic (3-0-0)
2018-01-20: W vs. [#2HW+] Francis Ngannou (11-2-0) via UD (50-44, 50-44, 50-44)
2017-05-13: W vs. [#8HW+] Junior dos Santos (18-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:22 of round 1
2016-09-10: W vs. [#7HW+] Alistair Overeem (43-17-0) via TKO in 4:27 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Daniel Cormier (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2018-01-20: W vs. [#6LHW] Volkan Oezdemir (15-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:00 of round 2
2017-07-29: NC vs. [#2LHW/#5P4P] Jon Jones (22-1-0)
2017-04-08: W vs. [*] Anthony Johnson (22-6-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:37 of round 2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Stipe Miocic 168, Daniel Cormier 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.
Featherweight Championship (145)
[#1/#1DD/#2P4P] Max Holloway (19-3-0, -149) vs. [#2/#7DD/#9P4P] Brian Ortega (14-0-0, +124)
Max Holloway is the All-Time #3 ranked Featherweight and #35 ranked Absolute fighter.
Brian Ortega is the All-Time #20 ranked Featherweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Max Holloway (3-0-0)
2017-12-02: W vs. [#3FW] Jose Aldo (26-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:51 of round 3
2017-06-03: W vs. [#3FW] Jose Aldo (26-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:13 of round 3
2016-12-10: W vs. [#8LW] Anthony Pettis (20-7-0) via TKO (Kick to the Body and Punches) in 4:50 of round 3
Last 3 Fights: Brian Ortega (3-0-0)
2018-03-03: W vs. [#4FW] Frankie Edgar (23-6-1) via KO (Punches) in 4:44 of round 1
2017-12-09: W vs. [#14FW] Cub Swanson (25-9-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:22 of round 2
2017-07-29: W vs. [#15FW] Renato Carneiro (12-1-1) via SUB in 2:59 of round 3
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Max Holloway 217, Brian Ortega 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.
Heavyweight (265)
[#2] Francis Ngannou (11-2-0, -372) vs. [#10] Derrick Lewis (19-5-0, +290)
Francis Ngannou is the All-Time #36 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Francis Ngannou (2-1-0)
2018-01-20: L vs. [#1HW+/#4DD/#3P4P] Stipe Miocic (18-2-0) via UD (50-44, 50-44, 50-44)
2017-12-02: W vs. [#7HW+] Alistair Overeem (43-17-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:42 of round 1
2017-01-28: W vs. [#19HW+] Andrei Arlovski (27-16-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:32 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Derrick Lewis (2-1-0)
2018-02-18: W vs. [#22HW+] Marcin Tybura (16-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:48 of round 3
2017-06-10: L vs. [#9HW+] Mark Hunt (13-12-1) via TKO (Punches) in 3:51 of round 4
2017-02-19: W vs. [#18HW+] Travis Browne (18-7-1) via KO (Punches) in 3:12 of round 2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Francis Ngannou 168, Derrick Lewis 139
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Keep Reading
Middleweight (185)
[#12] Brad Tavares (17-4-0, +119) vs. [#46] Israel Adesanya (13-0-0, -143)
Last 3 Fights: Brad Tavares (3-0-0)
2018-04-14: W vs. [#22MW] Krzysztof Jotko (19-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:16 of round 3
2017-10-07: W vs. [#33MW] Thales Leites (27-9-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-27)
2017-07-07: W vs. [#15MW] Elias Theodorou (15-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Israel Adesanya (3-0-0)
2018-04-14: W vs. [#63MW] Marvin Vettori (12-4-1) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)
2018-02-10: W vs. [#190MW] Rob Wilkinson (11-2-0) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 3:37 of round 2
2017-11-24: W vs. [#387MW] Stuart Dare (8-6-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 4:53 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brad Tavares 83, Israel Adesanya 83
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Women Flyweight (125)
[#19] Roxanne Modafferi (21-14-0, +145) vs. [#30] Barb Honchak (10-3-0, -172)
Roxanne Modafferi is the All-Time #19 ranked Women’s fighter.
Barb Honchak is the All-Time #13 ranked Women’s fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Roxanne Modafferi (2-1-0)
2017-12-01: L vs. [#5FLY] Nicco Montano (4-2-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 50-45)
2017-05-20: W vs. [#38FLY] Sarah DAlelio (11-7-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 1:37 of round 3
2017-04-01: W vs. [#88FLY] Priscila de Souza (12-8-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:53 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Barb Honchak (2-1-0)
2017-12-01: L vs. [#29FLY] Lauren Murphy (10-4-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2014-11-01: W vs. [#40FLY] Takayo Hashi (16-6-1) via UD (49-46, 50-45, 50-45)
2013-12-07: W vs. [#7BW] Leslie Smith (10-7-1) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Roxanne Modafferi 217, Barb Honchak 217
Previous Match-up Record: Barb Honchak leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Barb Honchak leads 2-1
.
Middleweight (185)
[#62] Julian Marquez (7-1-0, -165) vs. [#117] Alessio Di Chirico (11-2-0, +139)
Last 3 Fights: Julian Marquez (3-0-0)
2017-12-16: W vs. [#50MW] Darren Stewart (8-3-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:42 of round 2
2017-08-01: W vs. [#450MW] Phil Hawes (4-2-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 2:20 of round 2
2017-05-19: W vs. [#163LHW] Cameron Olson (9-4-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:06 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Alessio Di Chirico (2-1-0)
2017-12-16: W vs. [#229MW] Oluwale Bamgbose (6-4-0) via KO (Knee) in 2:14 of round 2
2017-01-28: L vs. [#64MW] Eric Spicely (10-4-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 2:14 of round 1
2016-08-27: W vs. [*] Garreth McLellan (13-6-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Julian Marquez 202, Alessio Di Chirico 202
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Keep Reading
UPDATE – Re-posting at 6pm Eastern – Forgot the semi-annual nationality adjustment (ultimately one was not warranted for 1st half of 2018) and resolving a few data issues.
Bantamweight (135)
[#3] Marlon Moraes (20-5-1, 135.4lb, -114) vs. [#6] Jimmie Rivera (21-1-0, 134.6lb, -109)
Marlon Moraes is the All-Time #13 ranked Bantamweight fighter.
Jimmie Rivera is the All-Time #22 ranked Bantamweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Marlon Moraes (2-1-0)
2017-12-09: W vs. [#8BW] Aljamain Sterling (15-3-0) via KO (Knee) in 1:07 of round 1
2017-11-11: W vs. [#9BW] John Dodson (20-9-0) via SD (30-27, 30-27, 27-30)
2017-06-03: L vs. [#7BW] Raphael Assuncao (26-5-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
Last 3 Fights: Jimmie Rivera (3-0-0)
2017-07-22: W vs. [#52BW] Thomas Almeida (21-3-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 29-28)
2016-09-10: W vs. [*] Urijah Faber (34-10-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2016-01-30: W vs. [#15BW] Iuri Alcantara (35-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Marlon Moraes 174, Jimmie Rivera 314
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.
Welterweight (170)
[#42] Jake Ellenberger (31-13-0, 170.4lb, -171) vs. [#81] Ben Saunders (21-9-2, 169.4lb, +143)
Jake Ellenberger is the All-Time #23 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Jake Ellenberger (1-2-0)
2017-04-22: L vs. [#36WW] Mike Perry (11-3-0) via KO (Elbow) in 1:05 of round 2
2016-12-03: L vs. [#9WW] Jorge Masvidal (32-13-0) via TKO in 4:05 of round 1
2016-07-30: W vs. [#23WW] Matt Brown (21-16-0) via TKO (Kick to the Body and Punches) in 1:46 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Ben Saunders (1-2-0)
2018-02-24: L vs. [#41WW] Alan Jouban (16-6-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:38 of round 2
2017-05-28: L vs. [#67WW] Peter Sobotta (17-6-1) via TKO (Punches and Knee) in 2:29 of round 2
2017-01-15: W vs. [#99WW] Court McGee (18-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jake Ellenberger 405, Ben Saunders 97
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Lightweight (155)
[#26] Nik Lentz (28-8-2, 155.4lb) vs. [*] Leonardo Santos (16-3-2)
Last 3 Fights: Nik Lentz (2-1-0)
2017-11-18: W vs. [#40LW] Will Brooks (18-4-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:05 of round 2
2017-02-11: L vs. [#33LW] Islam Makhachev (15-1-0) via UD (30-25, 30-27, 30-25)
2016-09-10: W vs. [#528LW] Michael McBride (8-3-0) via TKO in 4:17 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Leonardo Santos (3-0-0)
2016-10-08: W vs. [#84LW] Adriano Martins (28-10-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2015-12-12: W vs. [#4LW] Kevin Lee (17-3-0) via TKO in 3:26 of round 1
2015-03-21: W vs. [#58WW] Tony Martin (13-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:29 of round 2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Nik Lentz 195, Leonardo Santos 601
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Keep Reading
Notable Info
Welterweight (170)
[#3] Stephen Thompson (14-2-1) vs. [#14] Darren Till (16-0-1)
Stephen Thompson is the All-Time #16 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Stephen Thompson (1-1-1)
2017-11-04: W vs. [#8WW] Jorge Masvidal (32-13-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-27)
2017-03-04: L vs. [#1WW/#6DD/#5P4P] Tyron Woodley (18-3-1) via MD (48-47, 47-47, 48-47)
2016-11-12: D vs. [#1WW/#6DD/#5P4P] Tyron Woodley (18-3-1) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 5
Last 3 Fights: Darren Till (3-0-0)
2017-10-21: W vs. [#11WW] Donald Cerrone (33-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:20 of round 1
2017-09-02: W vs. [#125WW] Bojan Velickovic (15-6-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2017-05-28: W vs. [#154WW] Jessin Ayari (16-4-0) via UD (30-27, 29-27, 30-27)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Stephen Thompson 204, Darren Till 218
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Welterweight (170)
[#10] Neil Magny (20-6-0) vs. [#137] Craig White (14-7-0)
Neil Magny is the All-Time #47 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Neil Magny (2-1-0)
2017-12-30: W vs. [#35WW] Carlos Condit (30-12-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2017-09-09: L vs. [#2WW/#10P4P] Rafael dos Anjos (28-9-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:43 of round 1
2016-12-30: W vs. [#26MW] Johny Hendricks (18-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Craig White (3-0-0)
2018-03-24: W vs. [#609WW] Alex Montagnani (9-3-1) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 2:42 of round 2
2017-10-14: W vs. [#267WW] Matt Inman (20-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:40 of round 1
2017-06-02: W vs. [#410WW] Hakon Foss (9-5-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:18 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Neil Magny 148, Craig White 64
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Featherweight (145)
[#85] Arnold Allen (12-1-0) vs. [#125] Mads Burnell (9-2-0)
Last 3 Fights: Arnold Allen (3-0-0)
2017-03-18: W vs. [#105FW] Makwan Amirkhani (13-3-0) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 30-27)
2016-02-27: W vs. [*] Yaotzin Meza (21-12-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2015-06-20: W vs. [#109LW] Alan Omer (21-5-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:41 of round 3
Last 3 Fights: Mads Burnell (2-1-0)
2018-01-14: W vs. [#146FW] Mike Santiago (21-11-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2017-09-02: L vs. [#33WW] Michel Prazeres (26-2-0) via Submission (North South Choke) in 1:26 of round 3
2016-11-11: W vs. [#508FW] Fernando Duarte Bagordach (23-5-0) via Submission (Japanese Necktie) in 1:21 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Arnold Allen 435, Mads Burnell 133
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Keep Reading
Notable Info
