Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs Costa (10-23-2021)

18 Oct , 2021,
Jason

Middleweight (185)
[#6] Marvin Vettori (16-5-1, -122) vs. [#7] Paulo Costa (13-1-0, +101)
Paulo Costa is the All-Time #26 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Marvin Vettori (2-1-0)
2021-06-12: L vs. [#1MW/#6P4P] Israel Adesanya (21-1-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2021-04-10: W vs. [#12MW] Kevin Holland (21-7-0) via UD (50-44, 50-44, 50-44)
2020-12-05: W vs. [#8MW] Jack Hermansson (22-6-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-45)

Last 3 Fights: Paulo Costa (2-1-0)
2020-09-26: L vs. [#1MW/#6P4P] Israel Adesanya (21-1-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 3:59 of round 2
2019-08-17: W vs. [#9LHW] Yoel Romero (13-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-07-07: W vs. [#15MW] Uriah Hall (17-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:36 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Marvin Vettori -122 52.48%
Elo K170 Marvin Vettori 1995.53 +14.01 51.60%
Elo Modified Marvin Vettori 1998.81 +6.38 50.70%
Glicko-1 Paulo Costa 2081.27 +15.95 52.29%
WHR Marvin Vettori 1928.97 +20.49 52.34%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Marvin Vettori 133, Paulo Costa 392
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#20] Grant Dawson (17-1-0, -316) vs. [#84] Ricky Glenn (22-6-1, +245)

Last 3 Fights: Grant Dawson (3-0-0)
2021-03-20: W vs. [#40LW] Leonardo Santos (18-4-1) via KO (Punches) in 4:59 of round 3
2020-07-18: W vs. [*] Nad Narimani (12-4-0) via UD (29-27, 30-26, 30-27)
2020-02-29: W vs. [#70FW] Darrick Minner (26-12-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:38 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Ricky Glenn (2-1-0)
2021-06-19: W vs. [#215LW] Joaquim Silva (11-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:37 of round 1
2018-11-30: L vs. [#96FW] Kevin Aguilar (17-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-07-14: W vs. [*] Dennis Bermudez (17-9-0) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Grant Dawson -316 72.37%
Elo K170 Grant Dawson 1957.04 +218.34 73.06%
Elo Modified Grant Dawson 1931.81 +257.40 75.52%
Glicko-1 Grant Dawson 1994.10 +298.05 84.76%
WHR Grant Dawson 1932.01 +314.20 80.78%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Grant Dawson 217, Ricky Glenn 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Bantamweight (135)
[#17] Jessica-Rose Clark (10-6-0, -176) vs. [#33] Joselyne Edwards (10-3-0, +145)

Last 3 Fights: Jessica-Rose Clark (1-2-0)
2020-09-19: W vs. [#91FLY] Sarah Alpar (9-6-0) via TKO (Punch and Knee) in 4:21 of round 3
2019-11-09: L vs. [#8BW] Pannie Kianzad (15-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-06-23: L vs. [#18FLY] Jessica Eye (15-10-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Joselyne Edwards (2-1-0)
2021-02-06: L vs. [#9BW] Karol Rosa (15-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-01-16: W vs. [#59BW] Yanan Wu (10-4-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2020-07-03: W vs. [NA] Pamela Gonzalez (2-6-0) via TKO in 0:28 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jessica-Rose Clark -176 60.97%
Elo K170 Jessica-Rose Clark 1355.65 +43.63 54.97%
Elo Modified Joselyne Edwards 1363.99 +10.47 51.15%
Glicko-1 Joselyne Edwards 1387.16 +45.41 56.50%
WHR Joselyne Edwards 1350.15 +68.97 57.81%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jessica-Rose Clark 399, Joselyne Edwards 259
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Jessica-Rose Clark leads 1-0
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#121] Nicolae Negumereanu (10-1-0, -240) vs. [#124] Isaac Villanueva (18-12-0, +192)

Last 3 Fights: Nicolae Negumereanu (2-1-0)
2021-06-19: W vs. [#123LHW] Aleksa Camur (6-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2019-03-16: L vs. [*] Saparbek Safarov (9-3-0) via UD (29-27, 29-26, 29-26)
2018-11-19: W vs. [*] Dan Konecke (9-15-1) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 0:30 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Isaac Villanueva (1-2-0)
2021-06-26: L vs. [#47LHW] Marcin Prachnio (15-5-0) via KO (Body Kick) in 0:56 of round 2
2021-01-20: W vs. [#169HW+] Vinicius Moreira (10-6-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:39 of round 2
2020-08-22: L vs. [#106MW] Jordan Wright (12-1-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 1:31 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Nicolae Negumereanu -240 67.33%
Elo K170 Nicolae Negumereanu 1414.40 +94.72 60.65%
Elo Modified Nicolae Negumereanu 1420.34 +41.04 54.48%
Glicko-1 Nicolae Negumereanu 1409.59 +50.64 57.24%
WHR Nicolae Negumereanu 1357.26 +31.12 53.55%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Nicolae Negumereanu 126, Isaac Villanueva 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#35] Alex Caceres (18-12-0, +220) vs. [#45] Seung Woo Choi (10-3-0, -275)

Last 3 Fights: Alex Caceres (3-0-0)
2021-02-27: W vs. [#103FW] Kevin Croom (23-13-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-27)
2020-08-29: W vs. [#456LW] Austin Springer (12-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:38 of round 1
2020-06-06: W vs. [#179FW] Chase Hooper (10-2-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Seung Woo Choi (3-0-0)
2021-06-19: W vs. [#36FW] Julian Erosa (26-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:37 of round 1
2021-02-06: W vs. [#185FW] Youssef Zalal (10-5-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-12-21: W vs. [*] Suman Mokhtarian (8-2-0) via UD (29-26, 29-26, 29-25)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Seung Woo Choi -275 70.11%
Elo K170 Alex Caceres 1722.11 +95.74 60.76%
Elo Modified Alex Caceres 1760.85 +121.24 62.96%
Glicko-1 Alex Caceres 1753.98 +96.92 63.60%
WHR Alex Caceres 1680.55 +42.06 54.79%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alex Caceres 238, Seung Woo Choi 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#73] Francisco Trinaldo (26-8-0, -117) vs. [#102] Dwight Grant (11-3-0, -105)

Last 3 Fights: Francisco Trinaldo (2-1-0)
2021-06-05: L vs. [#20WW] Muslim Salikhov (18-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2020-07-25: W vs. [#109LW] Jai Herbert (10-3-0) via TKO (Punch) in 1:30 of round 3
2020-03-14: W vs. [#69LW] John Makdessi (18-7-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Dwight Grant (2-1-0)
2021-04-24: W vs. [#167WW] Stefan Sekulic (14-4-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2020-08-22: L vs. [#25WW] Daniel Rodriguez (16-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:24 of round 1
2019-04-13: W vs. [#77WW] Alan Jouban (17-7-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 27-30)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Francisco Trinaldo -117 51.28%
Elo K170 Francisco Trinaldo 1850.76 +194.96 70.90%
Elo Modified Francisco Trinaldo 1828.94 +215.39 71.97%
Glicko-1 Francisco Trinaldo 1883.10 +284.51 83.72%
WHR Francisco Trinaldo 1733.32 +186.60 70.11%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Francisco Trinaldo 140, Dwight Grant 182
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Strawweight (115)
[#16] Livinha Souza (14-3-0, -145) vs. [#37] Randa Markos (10-11-1, +119)
Livinha Souza is the All-Time #41 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Livinha Souza (1-2-0)
2021-03-06: L vs. [#6SW] Amanda Lemos (10-1-1) via TKO (Punches) in 3:29 of round 1
2020-08-15: W vs. [#33SW] Ashley Yoder (8-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-07-13: L vs. [*] Brianna Van Buren (9-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Randa Markos (0-3-0)
2021-05-01: L vs. [#22SW] Luana Pinheiro (9-1-0) via Disqualification (Illegal Upkick) in 4:16 of round 1
2020-11-14: L vs. [#21SW] Kanako Murata (12-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2020-09-19: L vs. [#9SW] Mackenzie Dern (11-2-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 3:44 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Livinha Souza -145 56.44%
Elo K170 Livinha Souza 1480.91 +257.68 76.45%
Elo Modified Livinha Souza 1505.94 +206.06 71.14%
Glicko-1 Livinha Souza 1481.66 +226.21 78.62%
WHR Livinha Souza 1398.66 +127.97 64.21%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Livinha Souza 231, Randa Markos 175
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Randa Markos leads 2-1
.

Flyweight (125)
[#51] Jeff Molina (9-2-0, -159) vs. [#87] Daniel Lacerda (11-1-0, +132)

Last 3 Fights: Jeff Molina (3-0-0)
2021-04-24: W vs. [#102FLY] Qileng Aori (18-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-27)
2020-08-25: W vs. [#279FLY] Jacob Silva (7-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2020-02-22: W vs. [*] Ken Porter (11-6-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 2:38 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Daniel Lacerda (3-0-0)
2021-07-24: W vs. [#204FLY] Rodrigo dos Santos Sarafi (21-12-1) via TKO in 2:23 of round 1
2019-10-13: W vs. [*] Francisco Javier Asprilla (14-14-1) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:40 of round 1
2019-08-08: W vs. [*] Augusto Cesar Saraiva da (5-3-1) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 2:45 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jeff Molina -159 58.75%
Elo K170 Jeff Molina 1521.57 +34.04 53.88%
Elo Modified Daniel Lacerda 1525.58 +2.57 50.28%
Glicko-1 Jeff Molina 1554.23 +5.03 50.72%
WHR Daniel Lacerda 1510.43 +125.72 63.98%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jeff Molina 182, Daniel Lacerda 91
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#51] Jun Yong Park (13-4-0, -124) vs. [#82] Gregory Rodrigues (10-3-0, +102)

Last 3 Fights: Jun Yong Park (3-0-0)
2021-05-08: W vs. [#63LHW] Tafon Nchukwi (6-1-0) via MD (29-26, 30-25, 28-28)
2020-10-17: W vs. [#186MW] John Phillips (22-11-0) via UD (30-25, 30-25, 30-25)
2019-12-21: W vs. [#46MW] Marc-Andre Barriault (14-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Gregory Rodrigues (3-0-0)
2021-06-05: W vs. [#109MW] Dusko Todorovic (10-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2021-05-21: W vs. [#224MW] Josh Fremd (7-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:20 of round 1
2021-03-19: W vs. [#467WW] Al Matavao (9-5-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:02 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jun Yong Park -124 52.79%
Elo K170 Jun Yong Park 1662.13 +44.72 55.09%
Elo Modified Jun Yong Park 1691.58 +36.79 54.02%
Glicko-1 Gregory Rodrigues 1660.01 +4.62 50.66%
WHR Jun Yong Park 1665.99 +94.02 60.58%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jun Yong Park 168, Gregory Rodrigues 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Strawweight (115)
[#125] Maria de Oliveira Neta (12-4-0, +169) vs. [#128] Tabatha Ricci (5-1-0, -207)

Last 3 Fights: Maria de Oliveira Neta (2-1-0)
2021-02-12: W vs. [NA] Enila Emily Costa Tabosa (0-1-0) via Ko in 1:03 of round 1
2019-09-28: W vs. [NA] Diulye Duarte (0-2-0) via UD ()
2018-08-11: L vs. [#3SW/#8DD/#8P4P] Marina Rodriguez (15-1-2) via TKO (Punches) in 3:03 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Tabatha Ricci (2-1-0)
2021-06-05: L vs. [#15FLY] Manon Fiorot (8-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:00 of round 2
2021-04-23: W vs. [NA] Shawna Lee Ormsby (2-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:50 of round 2
2021-01-29: W vs. [NA] Vanessa Marie Grimes (0-1-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 1:07 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Tabatha Ricci -207 64.46%
Elo K170 Maria de Oliveira Neta 1288.42 +72.89 58.25%
Elo Modified Tabatha Ricci 1280.67 +20.16 52.21%
Glicko-1 Maria de Oliveira Neta 1266.54 +34.15 54.90%
WHR Maria de Oliveira Neta 1270.14 +23.84 52.72%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Maria de Oliveira Neta 253, Tabatha Ricci 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#109] Jai Herbert (10-3-0, -174) vs. [#128] Khama Worthy (16-8-0, +144)

Last 3 Fights: Jai Herbert (1-2-0)
2021-06-26: L vs. [#35LW] Renato Carneiro (15-4-1) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:34 of round 2
2020-07-25: L vs. [#73WW] Francisco Trinaldo (26-8-0) via TKO (Punch) in 1:30 of round 3
2019-10-26: W vs. [*] Cain Carrizosa (11-4-0) via KO (Knee) in 3:26 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Khama Worthy (1-2-0)
2021-03-27: L vs. [#64LW] Jamie Mullarkey (15-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:46 of round 1
2020-09-12: L vs. [#49LW] Ottman Azaitar (13-0-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:33 of round 1
2020-06-27: W vs. [#115LW] Luis Pena (9-3-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:53 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jai Herbert -174 60.77%
Elo K170 Jai Herbert 1579.16 +105.92 61.87%
Elo Modified Jai Herbert 1595.44 +79.28 58.59%
Glicko-1 Jai Herbert 1598.61 +90.37 62.72%
WHR Jai Herbert 1522.97 +50.77 55.77%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jai Herbert 119, Khama Worthy 210
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#143] Laureano Staropoli (9-4-0) vs. [#245] Jamie Pickett (11-6-0)

Last 3 Fights: Laureano Staropoli (0-3-0)
2021-06-05: L vs. [#57MW] Roman Dolidze (9-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2020-08-08: L vs. [#26WW] Tim Means (32-12-1) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2019-10-26: L vs. [#20WW] Muslim Salikhov (18-2-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Jamie Pickett (1-2-0)
2021-05-15: L vs. [#106MW] Jordan Wright (12-1-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 1:04 of round 1
2020-12-19: L vs. [#63LHW] Tafon Nchukwi (6-1-0) via UD (30-26, 30-25, 30-26)
2020-08-25: W vs. [#328MW] Jhonoven Pati (6-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:33 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Elo K170 Laureano Staropoli 1380.89 +140.93 65.56%
Elo Modified Laureano Staropoli 1408.64 +91.79 59.91%
Glicko-1 Laureano Staropoli 1434.95 +129.96 67.87%
WHR Laureano Staropoli 1394.62 +96.67 60.86%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Laureano Staropoli 140, Jamie Pickett 161
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.

Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Marvin Vettori
Highest Stored DD Rating: Marvin Vettori
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Marvin Vettori vs. Paulo Costa
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Marvin Vettori vs. Paulo Costa
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Outstanding [****½]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Low [**]
Run Date: 2021-10-17