Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs Dern (10-09-2021)

4 Oct , 2021,
Jason

Women Strawweight (115)
[#4] Marina Rodriguez (14-1-2, +126) vs. [#6] Mackenzie Dern (11-1-0, -154)

Last 3 Fights: Marina Rodriguez (2-1-0)
2021-05-08: W vs. [#9SW] Michelle Waterson (18-9-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)
2021-01-23: W vs. [#14SW] Amanda Ribas (10-2-0) via TKO (Elbow and Punches) in 0:54 of round 2
2020-07-25: L vs. [#3SW/#9DD/#8P4P] Carla Esparza (18-6-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Mackenzie Dern (3-0-0)
2021-04-10: W vs. [#18SW] Nina Nunes (10-7-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:48 of round 1
2020-12-12: W vs. [#11SW] Virna Jandiroba (17-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2020-09-19: W vs. [#36SW] Randa Markos (10-11-1) via Submission (Armbar) in 3:44 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Mackenzie Dern -154 57.80%
Elo K170 Marina Rodriguez 1721.65 +27.68 53.16%
Elo Modified Marina Rodriguez 1744.07 +46.33 55.05%
Glicko-1 Marina Rodriguez 1749.51 +43.69 56.26%
WHR Marina Rodriguez 1663.51 +78.48 58.87%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Marina Rodriguez 154, Mackenzie Dern 182
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#44] Randy Brown (13-4-0, -251) vs. [#188] Jared Gooden (18-6-0, +201)

Last 3 Fights: Randy Brown (2-1-0)
2021-04-24: W vs. [#79WW] Alex Oliveira (22-11-1) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:50 of round 1
2020-08-01: L vs. [#5WW] Vicente Luque (21-7-1) via KO (Knee and Punches) in 4:56 of round 2
2019-11-16: W vs. [#86WW] Warlley Alves (14-5-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 1:22 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Jared Gooden (1-2-0)
2021-07-31: W vs. [#277WW] Niklas Stolze (12-5-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:08 of round 1
2021-03-27: L vs. [#143WW] Abubakar Nurmagomedov (16-3-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2020-11-21: L vs. [#77WW] Alan Jouban (17-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Randy Brown -251 68.28%
Elo K170 Randy Brown 1779.59 +335.84 82.26%
Elo Modified Randy Brown 1771.77 +293.80 78.35%
Glicko-1 Randy Brown 1827.27 +287.32 83.94%
WHR Randy Brown 1740.90 +318.67 81.09%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Randy Brown 168, Jared Gooden 70
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Flyweight (125)
[#6] Matheus Nicolau (16-2-1, -172) vs. [#15] Tim Elliott (17-11-1, +142)
Matheus Nicolau is the All-Time #41 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Matheus Nicolau (3-0-0)
2021-03-13: W vs. [#7FLY] Manel Kape (16-6-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-08-30: W vs. [*] Felipe Efrain (14-6-0) via UD ()
2019-05-24: W vs. [#645BW] Alan Gabriel dos Santos (12-6-0) via Submission (Anaconda Choke) in 01:18 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Tim Elliott (2-1-0)
2021-03-06: W vs. [#44FLY] Jordan Espinosa (15-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-25)
2020-07-15: W vs. [#151FLY] Ryan Benoit (10-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2020-05-30: L vs. [#11FLY] Brandon Royval (12-6-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:18 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Matheus Nicolau -172 60.48%
Elo K170 Matheus Nicolau 1765.66 +118.96 63.26%
Elo Modified Matheus Nicolau 1691.96 +29.97 53.27%
Glicko-1 Matheus Nicolau 1702.54 +37.91 55.44%
WHR Matheus Nicolau 1653.93 +83.95 59.47%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Matheus Nicolau 210, Tim Elliott 217
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Tim Elliott leads 3-2
.

Women Flyweight (125)
[#37] Sabina Mazo (9-2-0, -157) vs. [#58] Mariya Agapova (9-2-0, +129)

Last 3 Fights: Sabina Mazo (2-1-0)
2021-02-27: L vs. [#14BW] Alexis Davis (20-11-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-27)
2020-09-12: W vs. [#51FLY] Justine Kish (7-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:57 of round 3
2020-01-18: W vs. [#29FLY] J.J. Aldrich (10-4-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)

Last 3 Fights: Mariya Agapova (2-1-0)
2020-08-22: L vs. [#57FLY] Shana Dobson (4-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:38 of round 2
2020-06-13: W vs. [#88SW] Hannah Cifers (10-7-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:42 of round 1
2019-10-04: W vs. [*] Marilia Santos (10-4-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 4:55 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Sabina Mazo -157 58.31%
Elo K170 Sabina Mazo 1403.69 +81.93 59.25%
Elo Modified Sabina Mazo 1443.99 +80.83 58.75%
Glicko-1 Sabina Mazo 1375.76 +72.92 60.34%
WHR Sabina Mazo 1389.20 +95.88 60.78%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sabina Mazo 224, Mariya Agapova 413
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Sabina Mazo leads 1-0
.

Middleweight (185)
[#64] Phil Hawes (11-2-0, -276) vs. [#91] Deron Winn (7-2-0, +220)

Last 3 Fights: Phil Hawes (3-0-0)
2021-05-08: W vs. [#74MW] Kyle Daukaus (10-2-0) via UD (30-26, 29-27, 30-26)
2021-02-20: W vs. [#19MW] Nassourdine Imavov (10-3-0) via MD (29-28, 28-28, 29-28)
2020-10-24: W vs. [#123MW] Jacob Malkoun (5-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:18 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Deron Winn (1-2-0)
2020-12-19: W vs. [#189MW] Antonio Arroyo (9-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2020-03-07: L vs. [#23MW] Gerald Meerschaert (33-14-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:13 of round 3
2019-10-18: L vs. [#74LHW] Darren Stewart (12-8-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Phil Hawes -276 70.13%
Elo K170 Phil Hawes 1698.54 +227.83 73.90%
Elo Modified Phil Hawes 1707.72 +148.45 65.70%
Glicko-1 Phil Hawes 1698.55 +115.22 66.00%
WHR Phil Hawes 1683.69 +235.35 74.56%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Phil Hawes 154, Deron Winn 294
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[*] Chris Gutierrez (16-4-2, -269) vs. [#107] Felipe Dias Colares (10-2-0, +213)

Last 3 Fights: Chris Gutierrez (2-0-1)
2021-02-13: W vs. [#87BW] Andre Ewell (17-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 29-28)
2020-08-01: D vs. [#125FLY] Cody Durden (11-3-1) via Draw (Unanimous) in 5:00 of round 3
2020-05-30: W vs. [#200BW] Vince Morales (10-5-0) via TKO (Leg Kicks) in 4:27 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Felipe Dias Colares (2-1-0)
2021-05-01: W vs. [*] Luke Sanders (13-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2020-01-25: L vs. [#41BW] Montel Jackson (11-2-0) via UD (30-26, 30-25, 30-26)
2019-07-20: W vs. [#290BW] Domingo Pilarte (8-3-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Chris Gutierrez -269 69.52%
Elo K170 Chris Gutierrez 1755.03 +195.44 70.95%
Elo Modified Chris Gutierrez 1702.31 +155.96 66.44%
Glicko-1 Chris Gutierrez 1701.25 +164.50 72.05%
WHR Chris Gutierrez 1598.68 +165.26 68.03%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Chris Gutierrez 238, Felipe Dias Colares 161
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Chris Gutierrez leads 1-0
.

Middleweight (185)
[#139] Laureano Staropoli (9-4-0, -200) vs. [#234] Jamie Pickett (11-6-0, +164)

Last 3 Fights: Laureano Staropoli (0-3-0)
2021-06-05: L vs. [#55MW] Roman Dolidze (9-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2020-08-08: L vs. [#26WW] Tim Means (32-12-1) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2019-10-26: L vs. [#20WW] Muslim Salikhov (18-2-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Jamie Pickett (1-2-0)
2021-05-15: L vs. [#106MW] Jordan Wright (12-1-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 1:04 of round 1
2020-12-19: L vs. [#65LHW] Tafon Nchukwi (6-1-0) via UD (30-26, 30-25, 30-26)
2020-08-25: W vs. [#322MW] Jhonoven Pati (6-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:33 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Laureano Staropoli -200 63.76%
Elo K170 Laureano Staropoli 1380.83 +140.85 65.55%
Elo Modified Laureano Staropoli 1408.55 +91.69 59.90%
Glicko-1 Laureano Staropoli 1434.91 +129.93 67.87%
WHR Laureano Staropoli 1392.59 +94.72 60.65%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Laureano Staropoli 126, Jamie Pickett 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#37] Alexander Romanov (14-0-0, -401) vs. [#76] Jared Vanderaa (12-5-0, +304)

Last 3 Fights: Alexander Romanov (3-0-0)
2021-04-17: W vs. [#50HW+] Juan Espino (10-2-0) via TSD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2020-11-07: W vs. [#45HW+] Marcos Rogerio de Lima (18-7-1) via Technical Submission (Forearm Choke) in 4:48 of round 1
2020-09-12: W vs. [#152HW+] Roque Martinez (15-8-2) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 4:22 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Jared Vanderaa (2-1-0)
2021-05-22: W vs. [#157HW+] Justin Tafa (4-3-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2021-02-20: L vs. [#28HW+] Sergey Spivak (13-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:32 of round 2
2020-11-04: W vs. [#169HW+] Harry Hunsucker (7-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:34 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Alexander Romanov -401 76.38%
Elo K170 Alexander Romanov 1777.35 +328.70 81.79%
Elo Modified Alexander Romanov 1757.02 +235.75 73.73%
Glicko-1 Alexander Romanov 1806.71 +282.35 83.56%
WHR Alexander Romanov 1768.75 +312.92 80.68%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexander Romanov 175, Jared Vanderaa 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#49] Damon Jackson (18-4-1, -169) vs. [#87] Charles Rosa (14-5-0, +140)

Last 3 Fights: Damon Jackson (2-1-0)
2020-12-05: L vs. [#17FW] Ilia Topuria (11-0-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:38 of round 1
2020-09-19: W vs. [#50FW] Mirsad Bektic (13-4-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:21 of round 3
2020-03-06: W vs. [*] Mauro Chaulet (13-7-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:11 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Charles Rosa (2-1-0)
2021-06-26: W vs. [#157FW] Justin Jaynes (16-8-0) via SD (30-27, 29-28, 28-29)
2021-02-20: L vs. [#70FW] Darrick Minner (26-12-0) via UD (30-26, 29-27, 30-27)
2020-06-13: W vs. [#95FW] Kevin Aguilar (17-5-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Damon Jackson -169 60.12%
Elo K170 Damon Jackson 1638.49 +75.11 58.50%
Elo Modified Damon Jackson 1655.91 +153.41 66.19%
Glicko-1 Damon Jackson 1701.10 +215.70 77.59%
WHR Damon Jackson 1657.06 +210.95 72.39%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Damon Jackson 308, Charles Rosa 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Charles Rosa leads 1-0
.

Women Strawweight (115)
[#63] Lupita Godinez (5-1-0, -203) vs. [#86] Sam Hughes (5-3-0, +165)

Last 3 Fights: Lupita Godinez (2-1-0)
2021-04-17: L vs. [#23SW] Jessica Penne (14-5-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2020-10-30: W vs. [#87FLY] Vanessa Demopoulos (6-4-0) via MD ()
2019-11-30: W vs. [*] Lindsay Garbatt (6-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Sam Hughes (1-2-0)
2021-05-01: L vs. [#32SW] Konklak Suphisara (6-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2020-12-12: L vs. [#5SW] Tecia Torres (13-5-0) via TKO (Corner Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 1
2020-10-16: W vs. [#198FLY] Danielle Hindley (4-2-0) via Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 5:00 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Lupita Godinez -203 63.96%
Elo K170 Lupita Godinez 1243.22 +95.50 60.74%
Elo Modified Lupita Godinez 1354.44 +182.64 68.98%
Glicko-1 Lupita Godinez 1256.57 +116.97 66.23%
WHR Lupita Godinez 1271.69 +131.41 64.57%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Lupita Godinez 175, Sam Hughes 161
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Lupita Godinez leads 1-0
.

Lightweight (155)
[#272MW] Charlie Ontiveros (11-7-0, +245) vs. [*] Steve Garcia (11-4-0, -319)

Last 3 Fights: Charlie Ontiveros (2-1-0)
2020-10-31: L vs. [#12MW] Kevin Holland (21-7-0) via TKO (Submission to Slam) in 2:39 of round 1
2019-12-13: W vs. [*] Washington Luiz (5-5-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:45 of round 1
2019-08-23: W vs. [#870WW] Derrick Ageday (3-8-0) via KO (Flying Knee) in 1:50 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Steve Garcia (2-1-0)
2020-02-29: L vs. [#118LW] Luis Pena (9-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2020-01-17: W vs. [#273FW] Jose Mariscal (10-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:27 of round 2
2019-08-20: W vs. [#450BW] Desmond Torres (7-3-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 4:35 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Steve Garcia -319 72.42%
Elo K170 Steve Garcia 1518.21 +259.53 76.60%
Elo Modified Steve Garcia 1566.68 +305.21 79.18%
Glicko-1 Steve Garcia 1594.59 +350.72 88.28%
WHR Steve Garcia 1446.26 +174.67 68.96%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Charlie Ontiveros 343, Steve Garcia 588
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
 



Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Randy Brown
Highest Stored DD Rating: Matheus Nicolau
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Randy Brown vs. Jared Gooden
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Matheus Nicolau vs. Tim Elliott
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Great [****]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Low [**]
Run Date: 2021-10-3