This Week’s WHR Parlays

Good news — Another win for the “Safe” parlay last week!  With regards to the “Underdog” parlay, I find myself constantly wanting to tweak the criteria as it has the potential to get ridiculous.  It is meant to be a longshot option, but I prefer to stop short of insanely long odds.  Then again, the goal with the parlays isn’t just to make money, but to also have a good hit rate when compared to the betting odds.  Have any thoughts? Leave a comment!

Bouts considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

• Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event).  Reduces uncertainty.
• Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut).  More data makes WHR happy.
• Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight.  Further reduces uncertainty.

Now for the parlays…

“The Underdog” parlay

• Fighters listed are betting underdogs, but WHR favorites.
• Fighters with “negative” odds are not listed.  This can sometimes happen in pick’em fights.
• No maximum fighter amount.
• After 4 fighters (top 4 by WHR Win %), I will only add additional if there is reasonable value (WHR% – Odds%) >20%?

Historical Hit Rate: 1 of 3 (33.3%) – Expected Hit Rate by Odds: 16.4%, WHR: 36.3% – Bankroll: -$35.00

“The Safe” parlay

• Fighters listed have a higher chance to win per WHR than implied probability (odds).
• Fighters listed have at least a 75% chance of winning per WHR.
  • If I can’t get at least two fighters, I’ll bend a little on this percentage.
• Goal is to have a total parlay WHR win percentage of 50% or higher.

Historical Hit Rate: 3 of 4 (75%) – Expected Hit Rate by Odds: 42.8%, WHR: 59.3% – Bankroll: $285.27

“The Smart” parlay

• Fighters listed have the highest difference between WHR win probability and implied probability (odds).
• I’ll sort all qualifying fighters by that difference and cut the parlay off where it drops off significantly.
  • I’m going to aim for WHR favorites with >20% win difference and 2-4 total fighters.

Historical Hit Rate: 0 of 3 (0%) – Expected Hit Rate by Odds: 14.6%, WHR: 42.6% – Bankroll: -$300.00

Other things to consider….

• Our odds are “composite” odds — an average of many major sportsbooks.
• This is not “vanilla” WHR (although it is very advanced by default).  Read the FAQ for more info.
• As WHR is an Elo-variant, I’m using the same win probability formula as is the standard in Elo.  If one of you math nerds has a better approach, please let me know.
• “Odds Win %” does not factor in the juice.
• If the “FM Agree” column is “YES”, the standard ratings agree with WHR that the underdog is indeed the underdog and vice-versa.
• Don’t blame us if you lose money.  Gamble at your own risk.
• Bankrolls are based on $100 bets.