Good news — Another win for the “Safe” parlay last week! With regards to the “Underdog” parlay, I find myself constantly wanting to tweak the criteria as it has the potential to get ridiculous. It is meant to be a longshot option, but I prefer to stop short of insanely long odds. Then again, the goal with the parlays isn’t just to make money, but to also have a good hit rate when compared to the betting odds. Have any thoughts? Leave a comment!
Bouts considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
- Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
- Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
- Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Now for the parlays…
“The Underdog” parlay
- Fighters listed are betting underdogs, but WHR favorites.
- Fighters with “negative” odds are not listed. This can sometimes happen in pick’em fights.
- No maximum fighter amount.
- After 4 fighters (top 4 by WHR Win %), I will only add additional if there is reasonable value (WHR% – Odds%) >20%?
Historical Hit Rate: 1 of 3 (33.3%) – Expected Hit Rate by Odds: 16.4%, WHR: 36.3% – Bankroll: -$35.00
“The Safe” parlay
- Fighters listed have a higher chance to win per WHR than implied probability (odds).
- Fighters listed have at least a 75% chance of winning per WHR.
- If I can’t get at least two fighters, I’ll bend a little on this percentage.
- Goal is to have a total parlay WHR win percentage of 50% or higher.
Historical Hit Rate: 3 of 4 (75%) – Expected Hit Rate by Odds: 42.8%, WHR: 59.3% – Bankroll: $285.27
“The Smart” parlay
- Fighters listed have the highest difference between WHR win probability and implied probability (odds).
- I’ll sort all qualifying fighters by that difference and cut the parlay off where it drops off significantly.
- I’m going to aim for WHR favorites with >20% win difference and 2-4 total fighters.
Historical Hit Rate: 0 of 3 (0%) – Expected Hit Rate by Odds: 14.6%, WHR: 42.6% – Bankroll: -$300.00
Other things to consider….
- Our odds are “composite” odds — an average of many major sportsbooks.
- This is not “vanilla” WHR (although it is very advanced by default). Read the FAQ for more info.
- As WHR is an Elo-variant, I’m using the same win probability formula as is the standard in Elo. If one of you math nerds has a better approach, please let me know.
- “Odds Win %” does not factor in the juice.
- If the “FM Agree” column is “YES”, the standard ratings agree with WHR that the underdog is indeed the underdog and vice-versa.
- Don’t blame us if you lose money. Gamble at your own risk.
- Bankrolls are based on $100 bets.