Notable Info (Things beyond the Top 10)

• Cain Velazquez enters the Top 25 Heavyweights after taking the UFC title away from Brock Lesnar.
• Hector Lombard finally gets a quality win which pushes him up 29 spots into the 74th position at Middleweight.
• Gilbert Melendez is now one spot from the Top 10.  Frankie Edgar is right on his heels a few positions behind, but rising very quickly.
• Include Masakazu Imanari in the list of fighters who may soon displace some of the ancient Japanese names on the top Bantamweight list.  He just rose to #11 with this update.
• Zoila Frausto jumps from #79 to #39 on the All-Time Women list with her recent win over Megumi Fujii.  If she can hold her standing, she will climb the list rapidly, as it is incredibly weak beyond the Top 20.

Update: We are re-posting the MMA rankings as we got some late results in.  Most notably, Paulo Filho’s loss in Brazil.

There have been sixty UFC cards with at least 10 fights.  When you eliminate the cards that have at least one unranked fighter (by our accounts), you drop that list all the way down to nine cards [89,92,96,102,108,111,FN21,114,116].

Out of these nine, five had at least one fighter ranked #200 or worse.

This leaves four cards:

UFC 92 (10 fights / 2 title fights)
UFC 102 (11 fights / 0 title fights)
UFC 108 (10 fights / 0 title fights)
UFC 116 (11 fights / 1 title fight)

UFC 121 (11 fights / 1 title fight) will join this unique list.

* Rankings approximations were made for all cards, since we only started officially ranking fighters in 2008.  This however, is accurate enough for this analysis.

Main Card:

FightMatrix/UFC Heavyweight Championship
[#1] Brock Lesnar vs. [#4] Cain Velasquez

JCS Prediction: Lesnar is on pace to crack our Top 10 Heavyweights of All-Time in a few years and I don’t expect his ascent to stop here.  However, I do think this one will take a little longer than the oddsmakers think and take both men into the championship rounds for the first time.  Lesnar TKO 4

Oleg’s Prediction: I have a very hard time picking a winner in this fight.  If you put a gun to my head, I would go with Lesnar – the size advantage will be too much for Velasquez to deal with. Lesnar TKO 2

Welterweight
[#2 MW] Jake Shields vs. [#8] Martin Kampmann

JCS Prediction:  Kampmann has never been submitted, but there is a first time for everything.  Welcome to the big leagues Jake.  Shields SUB 1

Oleg’s Prediction: Just as he did to Carlos Condit, Kampmann will spoil Jake’s UFC debut by outworking Shields on the feet and holding his own on the ground, in an extremely close fight.  Kampmann SD

Welterweight
[#14] Paulo Thiago vs. [#25] Diego Sanchez

JCS Prediction: In a bit of a crossroads fight for both guys, I expect Thiago to send Sanchez back to Lightweight.  Thiago UD

Oleg’s Prediction: Both fighters have had their ups and downs, but I have to agree with JCS and the UFC president Dana White: Sanchez belongs in the lightweight division.    Thiago UD

Light Heavyweight
[#17] Matt Hamill vs. [#22] Tito Ortiz

JCS Prediction: Upset.  I was never THAT sold on Hamill and I think Ortiz has enough skill and guile left to get a close decision win over Hamill.  Ortiz SD

Oleg’s Prediction: This is a horrible matchup for Ortiz.   He won’t be able to take Hamill down, and while Tito’s striking may be technically better than Matt’s, he will be facing a severe disadvantage in the punching power.  All signs point to an protracted mauling by Hamill on the feet, resulting in a one-sided decision. Hamill UD

Heavyweight
[#16] Gabriel Gonzaga vs. [#43] Brendan Schaub

JCS Prediction: Interesting fight.  Gonzaga seems to have had his fair share of abrupt outcomes in the UFC and I don’t think this one will be any different.  I’ve gone back and forth on this fight and I think Gonzaga comes away with the first round finish.  Gonzaga TKO1

Oleg’s Prediction: Gonzaga is the gatekeeper of the UFC’s heavyweight division.  He loses to the elite fighters; everyone else is swiftly dispatched in a brutal fashion.  I haven’t seen anything from Schaub to suggest that he has reached the elite level.  Gonzaga TKO1

 Undercard: Keep Reading

Middleweight
[#11] Michael Bisping vs. [#29] Yoshihiro Akiyama

Welterweight
[#6] Dan Hardy vs. [#12] Carlos Condit

Welterweight
[#16] John Hathway vs. [#28] Mike Pyle

Heavyweight
[#16] Cheick Kongo vs. [#55] Travis Browne

Welterweight
[#66] Claude Patrick vs. [#256] James Wilks

Light Heavyweight
[#23] Cyrille Diabate vs. [#63] Alexander Gustafsson

Heavyweight
[#52] Rob Broughton vs. [#204] Vinicius Kappke de Quieroz

Light Heavyweight
[#39] Stanislov Nedkov vs. [#70] Steve Cantwell

Lightweight
[#73] Paul Sass vs. [#328] Mark Holst

Lightweight
[#67] Spencer Fisher vs. [#454] Curt Warburton

Light Heavyweight
[#60 HW] Fabio Maldonado vs. [#152 HW] James McSweeney

Effective the next update, our women’s division weight ranges will be changing.

• Featherweight+ = 140+ (from 141+)
• Bantamweight = 129-139 (from 131-140)
• Super Flyweight = 119-128 (from 121-130)
• Flyweight = 111-118 (from 111-120)
• Strawweight = 110 and under (Unchanged)

This is being changed to better handle division processing for catchweight fights, which are plentiful in Womens MMA.  We will also make a more assertive effort to place female fighters in their usual divisions, as opposed to their most recent catchweight agreements.

Of course, all this is subjective to change but expect a re-alignment of some kind on our next update.

2. Tara LaRosa
Although having recently lost a narrow division to Roxanne Modafferi (who is now in the 135lb division) at a catchweight , LaRosa is probably one of the two or three very best fighters in the history of Womens MMA.  Like Santos, LaRosa also benefits by fighting in an extremely weak division (even more so), going undefeated between 2004 through mid-2010, although she also spent some of this time beating quality opponents at 135.
Keep Reading

Welterweight Championship
[#4] Nick Diaz vs. [#45 LW] Karl James Noons

Women’s Welterweight Championship (135 lbs)
[#1] Sarah Kaufman vs. [#4 FW] Marloes Coenen

Lightweight
[#30] Josh Thomson vs. [#23] Gesias Cavalcante

Welterweight
[#82] Tyron Woodley vs. [#47] André Galvão