Basic Rules and Tips in Boxing Betting
Boxing betting is one of the most widespread and followed in all of sports betting. Whether you are playing in a new live casinos or online casinos, you would often hear people talking about how they won a fortune with a gamble on their favorite boxer.
Before entering the boxing betting arena,here are the basic rules and tips that might help you survive among the crowd of seasoned gamblers.
Basic Boxing Betting Rules:
- For a boxing bout to be categorized as “action”, the fight must take place within the window period. Most casinos would list the date and give it one week. Online casinos give a larger window of up to a month. Otherwise, it will be graded as “no action”.
- Venue shifts within the country will not affect any wagers. However, if the boxing match is changed to an overseas location, “no action” on all pending wagers will be called.
- In case of “no contest” or “no decision”, all bets will be refunded. This can happen when changes on the details of the fight are made when betting has officially started. However, a change in title to a non-title match will not affect the betting game.
- The result of betting will be depending only on the outcome on the date of the fight. Any disqualification or sanctions due to testing positive on prohibited drugs, incorrect scoring or granted appeals, will have no bearing on wagers.
- All bets will also be returned in case of a draw, when this result is not a betting option. Otherwise, all bets lose.
- If you bet on a TKO win, result of the fight should be any of the following: Technical Knockout, Knockout or Disqualification. The latter was considered a TKO for wagering or betting purposes.
- If you bet on number of rounds, the halfway mark is reached when clock ticks at 1:30 for men and 1:00 for women boxing matches
- If you bet on a fighter to win, the bet is also a winner if the fighter ends up winning by either a premature ending of the match or a decision following a full-scheduled bout.
- When the bell rings to signal the first round, the boxing match is deemed official for betting purposes.
Featured Upcoming Bouts (Outside of UFC)
| Monday, May 4th 2026: Deep 131 Impact: 25th Anniversary | |||
 [#2 SW] Sora Sugiyama | [#14 SW] Sukai China | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 12/14/2025 [DEEP] Last Opponent: [#6 SW] Haruo Ochi Last 5: - - W W W | Last Fight Date: 3/08/2026 [DEEP] Last Opponent: [NR] Musashi Musashi Last 5: W W W W W | ||
| Saturday, June 27th 2026: Professional Fighters League PFL San Diego: McKee vs. Isbulaev | |||
 [#6 FW] A.J. McKee |  [#19 FW] Salamat Isbulaev | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 3/20/2026 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#28 FW] Adam Borics Last 5: W W L W W | Last Fight Date: 2/07/2026 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#25 FW] Jesus Pinedo Last 5: W W W W W | ||
| Saturday, May 2nd 2026: PFL Sioux Falls: Storley vs. Zendeli | |||
 [#13 HW] Renan Ferreira |  [#24 HW] Sergey Bilostenniy | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 12/13/2025 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#5 HW] Vadim Nemkov Last 5: W W W L L | Last Fight Date: 8/21/2025 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#53 HW] Karl Williams Last 5: W W W L W | ||
Featured Fighters
| [#1 WW] | Islam Makhachev | [#17 WW] |  Mike Malott | |
| [#9 FW] | Youssef Zalal | [#1 LW] |  Ilia Topuria | |
| [#234 LW] |  Hugo Deux | [#16 BW] | Charles Jourdain | |
| [#35 WW] | Gilbert Burns | [#7 FW] |  Rajabali Shaidullaev | |
| [NR] |  Atilla Kubilay | [#44 BW] |  Davey Grant |
UFC 161: Ratings vs. Odds (06-15-2013)
This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds. Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.
With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:
- System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
- System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity or short-notice.
- Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
- Notable home advantage.
- System inability to project style differences.
- System inability to factor in bad judging or overturned decisions.
But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense. We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t. For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant. Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.
Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money. So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above. I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.
The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.
Having said all that, let’s get started:
Ratings vs. Odds
| Fight | Odds Favorite | Rating Favorite | I’d bet on | “Gotchas” |
| Delorme vs. Figueroa | Delorme (-215 / Moderate) | Delorme (1.44x / Small) | PASS | #4 |
| Maguire vs. Clarke | Maguire (-253 / Moderate) | Maguire (2.55x / Large) | PASS | #1 |
| Robertson vs. Pierson | Pierson (-144 / Small) | Pierson (1.11x / Very Small) | PASS | #4 |
| Jabouin vs. Pague | Jabouin (-332 / Large) | Jabouin (1.99x / Large) | PASS | |
| Jimmo vs. Pokrajac | Jimmo (-263 / Moderate) | Jimmo (2.01x / Large) | Jimmo | #4 |
| Miocic vs. Nelson | Nelson (-256 / Moderate) | Nelson (2.12x / Large) | Nelson | |
| Stout vs. Krause | Stout (-245 / Moderate) | Stout (1.20x / Very Small) | PASS | #4 |
| Shields vs. Woodley | Woodley (-180 / Moderate) | Woodley (1.25x / Very Small) | PASS | #1 |
| Davis vs. Sexton | Davis (-386 / Large) | Davis (1.40x / Small) | Sexton | #4 |
| Barry vs. Jordan | Barry (-121 / Pick ‘Em) | Jordan (1.37x / Small) | Jordan | |
| Evans vs. Henderson | Evans (-127 / Very Small) | Henderson (1.29x / Small) | Henderson |
The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet.
Favorites to consider: Jimmo, Nelson
Underdogs to consider:
- Sexton over Davis – Davis holds the stark hometown advantage, but seems to be too large of a favorite.
- Jordan over Barry – A slight disagreement between odds and ratings that makes this worthy of a small bet.
- Henderson over Evans – See above.
FightMatrix Program: UFC 161 (06-15-2013)
Light Heavyweight (205)
[#3] Dan Henderson (29-9-0, -105) vs. [#6] Rashad Evans (22-3-1, -121)
Dan Henderson is the All-Time #8 ranked Light Heavyweight and #7 ranked Absolute fighter.
Rashad Evans is the All-Time #7 ranked Light Heavyweight and #21 ranked Absolute fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Dan Henderson (2-1-0)
2013-02-23: L vs. [#2LHW] Lyoto Machida (19-3-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-11-19: W vs. [#7LHW] Mauricio Rua (21-7-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)
2011-07-30: W vs. [*] Fedor Emelianenko (34-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:12 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Rashad Evans (1-2-0)
2013-02-02: L vs. [#5LHW] Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (21-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-04-21: L vs. [#1LHW/#3DD] Jon Jones (18-1-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)
2012-01-28: W vs. [#15LHW] Phil Davis (11-1-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dan Henderson 112, Rashad Evans 133
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Rashad Evans leads 2-1
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Heavyweight (265)
[#30] Shawn Jordan (14-4-0, -105) vs. [#47] Pat Barry (8-5-0, -119)
Last 3 Fights: Shawn Jordan (2-1-0)
2013-01-26: W vs. [#42HW+] Mike Russow (15-3-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 3:48 of round 2
2012-07-21: L vs. [#20HW+] Cheick Kongo (18-8-2) via UD (30-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2012-03-03: W vs. [#260HW+] Oli Thompson (10-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:07 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Pat Barry (2-1-0)
2012-12-15: W vs. [#112HW+] Shane del Rosario (11-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:26 of round 2
2012-05-05: L vs. [#46HW+] Lavar Johnson (17-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:38 of round 1
2012-01-20: W vs. [*] Christian Morecraft (7-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:38 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Shawn Jordan 140, Pat Barry 182
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Shawn Jordan leads 1-0
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Women Bantamweight (135)
[#5] Alexis Davis (13-5-0, -390) vs. [#3FLY/#8DD] Rosi Sexton (13-2-0, +308)
Alexis Davis is the All-Time #22 ranked Women’s fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Alexis Davis (2-1-0)
2013-01-05: W vs. [#10BW] Shayna Baszler (15-8-0) via Technical Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 0:58 of round 3
2012-07-28: W vs. [#15BW] Hitomi Akano (18-10-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:41 of round 2
2012-03-03: L vs. [#4BW] Sarah Kaufman (16-2-0) via MD (29-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Rosi Sexton (3-0-0)
2012-06-02: W vs. [#14FLY] Aisling Daly (12-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-02-26: W vs. [NA] Roxanne Modafferi (15-10-0) via UD (30-27, 30-28, 30-29)
2010-11-27: W vs. [#29SW] Sally Krumdiack (9-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:07 of round 2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexis Davis 161, Rosi Sexton 378
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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FightMatrix Program: WSOF 3 (06-14-2013)
Welterweight (170)
[#18] Jon Fitch (24-5-1) vs. [#24] Josh Burkman (26-9-0)
Jon Fitch is the All-Time #3 ranked Welterweight and #24 ranked Absolute fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Jon Fitch (1-2-0)
2013-02-02: L vs. [#4WW] Demian Maia (18-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2012-10-13: W vs. [#28WW] Erick Silva (15-3-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-12-30: L vs. [#2WW/#8DD] Johny Hendricks (15-1-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:12 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Josh Burkman (3-0-0)
2013-03-23: W vs. [#53WW] Aaron Simpson (12-5-0) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 3:04 of round 1
2012-11-03: W vs. [#58WW] Gerald Harris (21-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2012-08-25: W vs. [#345WW] Jamie Yager (6-4-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:25 of round 2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jon Fitch 132, Josh Burkman 83
Previous Match-up Record: Jon Fitch leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#50] Steve Carl (19-3-0) vs. [#240] Tyson Steele (10-1-0)
Last 3 Fights: Steve Carl (3-0-0)
2012-11-03: W vs. [#188WW] Ramico Blackmon (8-2-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:11 of round 1
2012-08-11: W vs. [#242WW] Andrew Trace (7-2-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 0:55 of round 1
2012-07-28: W vs. [NA] Vic Hall (3-14-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:25 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Tyson Steele (3-0-0)
2012-11-03: W vs. [#704WW] Gregor Gracie (7-3-0) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 4:52 of round 1
2012-09-15: W vs. [#347WW] Jarod Milko (7-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-10-01: W vs. [*] Ben Stewart (4-1-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 0:54 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Steve Carl 223, Tyson Steele 223
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#65WW] Lyle Beerbohm (21-2-0) vs. [#45] Jacob Volkmann (15-4-0)
Last 3 Fights: Lyle Beerbohm (3-0-0)
2013-03-30: W vs. [#1020WW] Justin Larsson (5-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:42 of round 2
2013-01-12: W vs. [NA] Chris Ensley (5-24-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:17 of round 2
2012-08-23: W vs. [#497MW] Kenny Ento (13-10-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:28 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Jacob Volkmann (1-2-0)
2013-02-02: L vs. [#26LW] Bobby Green (20-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:25 of round 3
2012-10-05: W vs. [*] Shane Roller (11-7-0) via Submission (Neck Crank) in 2:38 of round 1
2012-05-26: L vs. [#66LW] Paul Sass (13-2-0) via Submission (Triangle Armbar) in 1:54 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Lyle Beerbohm 76, Jacob Volkmann 132
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Keep Reading
UFC on FuelTV 10: Ratings vs. Odds (06-08-2013)
This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds. Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.
With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:
- System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
- System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity or short-notice.
- Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
- Notable home advantage.
- System inability to project style differences.
- System inability to factor in bad judging or overturned decisions.
But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense. We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t. For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant. Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.
Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money. So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above. I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.
The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.
Having said all that, let’s get started:
Ratings vs. Odds
| Fight | Odds Favorite | Rating Favorite | I’d bet on | “Gotchas” |
| Braga Neto vs. Smith | Braga Neto (-253 / Moderate) | Smith (1.37x / Small) | PASS | #2, #4 |
| Vemola vs. Magalhaes | Vemola (-136 / Very Small) | Vemola (1.63x / Moderate) | PASS | #4 |
| Damm vs. Hirota | Damm (-162 / Small) | Hirota (1.34x / Small) | PASS | #1, #4 |
| Alcantara vs. Silva | Alcantara (-177 / Small) | Alcantara (1.72x / Moderate) | PASS | #4 |
| Arantes vs. Castro | Arantes (-221 / Moderate) | EVEN (1.00x) | Castro | |
| Markes vs. Brunson | Markes (-236 / Moderate) | Markes (1.12x / Very Small) | Brunson | #4 |
| Assuncao vs. Lee | Assuncao (-332 / Large) | Assuncao (2.41x / Large) | PASS | #4 |
| Mariano Bezerra vs. Wilkinson | Mariano Bezerra (-347 / Large) | Mariano Bezerra (1.57x / Moderate) | PASS | #3, #4 |
| Silva vs. High | Silva (-417 / Large) | Silva (1.14x / Very Small) | High | #4 |
| Sarafian vs. Mendez | Sarafian (-461 / Large) | Sarafian (1.22x / Very Small) | Mendez | #4 |
| Silva vs. Cavalcante | Cavalcante (-204 / Moderate) | Cavalcante (1.79x / Moderate) | PASS | #2 |
| Santos vs. Macario | Santos (-227 / Moderate) | Santos (2.80x / Very Large) | PASS | #3 |
| Werdum vs. Rodrigo Nogueira | Werdum (-309 / Large) | Werdum (1.92x / Large) | PASS |
The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet.
Favorites to consider: NONE
Underdogs to consider:
- Mendez over Sarafian – A respectable flier on a big underdog that is comparable in ranking to the favorite.
- High over Silva – See above. High has been on quite a streak as well.
- Brunson over Markes – Another case where the home fighter is getting (perhaps) a bit too much credit.
- Castro over Arantes – Arantes has a fraction of a rating point over Castro, while he is a -221 favorite.
Fight Matrix Program: UFC on FuelTV 10 (06-08-2013)
Heavyweight (265)
[#5] Fabricio Werdum (16-5-1, -300) vs. [#10] Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (34-7-1, +237)
Fabricio Werdum is the All-Time #9 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira is the All-Time #2 ranked Heavyweight and #5 ranked Absolute fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Fabricio Werdum (2-1-0)
2012-06-23: W vs. [#42HW+] Mike Russow (15-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:28 of round 1
2012-02-04: W vs. [#9HW+] Roy Nelson (19-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2011-06-18: L vs. [#6HW+] Alistair Overeem (36-12-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (2-1-0)
2012-10-13: W vs. [#68HW+] Dave Herman (21-5-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:31 of round 2
2011-12-10: L vs. [#7HW+] Frank Mir (16-7-0) via Technical Submission (Kimura) in 3:38 of round 1
2011-08-27: W vs. [#16HW+] Brendan Schaub (9-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:09 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Fabricio Werdum 350, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira 238
Previous Match-up Record: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#101LW] Leonardo Santos (11-3-0, -235) vs. [#577] William Macario (6-0-0, +182)
Last 3 Fights: Leonardo Santos (3-0-0)
2012-09-01: W vs. [#207LW] Mark Holst (12-5-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 1:15 of round 1
2012-03-10: W vs. [#1040FW] Gilmar Silva Milhorance (2-10-0) via Technical Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 1:47 of round 1
2011-05-21: W vs. [#364LW] Jason Ball (20-12-0) via UD ()
Last 3 Fights: William Macario (3-0-0)
2012-06-30: W vs. [#1062LW] Paulo Silva (5-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:56 of round 1
2011-12-17: W vs. [NA] Roger Berger (0-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:40 of round 1
2011-03-26: W vs. [#920WW] Gabriel Monkey (4-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:46 of round 2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Leonardo Santos 280, William Macario 343
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#21] Rafael Cavalcante (11-3-0, -203) vs. [#37] Thiago Silva (14-3-0, +167)
Last 3 Fights: Rafael Cavalcante (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2012-05-19: NC vs. [#19HW+] Mike Kyle (20-9-1) via No Decision (Overturned by CSAC) in 0:33 of round 1
2011-09-10: W vs. [#122MW] Yoel Romero Palacio (5-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:51 of round 2
2011-03-05: L vs. [#3LHW] Dan Henderson (29-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:50 of round 3
Last 3 Fights: Thiago Silva (0-1-0, 2 NC)
2012-11-10: NC vs. [#97MW] Stanislav Nedkov (12-1-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 1:45 of round 3
2012-04-14: L vs. [#4LHW] Alexander Gustafsson (15-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2011-01-01: NC vs. [#31LHW] Brandon Vera (12-6-0) via NC (Overturned by NSAC) in 5:00 of round 3
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rafael Cavalcante 385, Thiago Silva 210
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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New Feature: Fight Outcomes by Weight Class
Another fun statistic has been added to our collection: Fight outcomes broken down by weight division.
MMA Fight Outcomes by Weight Class
UFC Fight Outcomes by Weight Class
Bellator Fight Outcomes by Weight Class
Also check out the other entries in this series:
UFC 160: Ratings vs. Odds (05-25-2013)
This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds. Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.
With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:
- System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change or missed weight.
- System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity or short-notice.
- Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
- Notable home advantage.
- System inability to project style differences.
- System inability to factor in bad judging or overturned decisions.
But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense. We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t. For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant. Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.
Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money. So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above. I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.
The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.
Having said all that, let’s get started:
Ratings vs. Odds
| Fight | Odds Favorite | Rating Favorite | I’d bet on | “Gotchas” |
| Stephens vs. Payan | Stephens (-217 / Moderate) | Stephens (1.16x / Very Small) | PASS | #1 |
| Bowles vs. Roop | Bowles (-282 / Moderate) | Roop (1.10x / Pick ‘Em) | PASS | #2 |
| Burrell vs. Thompson | Thompson (-161 / Small) | Burrell (1.50x / Moderate) | PASS | #1, #2 |
| Nurmagomedov vs. Trujillo | Nurmagomedov (-255 / Moderate) | Nurmagomedov (2.36x / Large) | Nurmagomedov | #1 |
| Whittaker vs. Smith | Smith (-187 / Moderate) | Whittaker (1.45x / Moderate) | PASS | #3 |
| Bermudez vs. Holloway | Bermudez (-295 / Moderate) | Bermudez (1.03x / Pick ‘Em) | Holloway | |
| Story vs. Pyle | Story (-154 / Small) | Pyle (1.70x / Moderate) | Pyle | |
| Cerrone vs. Noons | Cerrone (-292 / Moderate) | Cerrone (2.53x / Large) | Cerrone | |
| Maynard vs. Grant | Maynard (-179 / Small) | Maynard (1.04x / Pick ‘Em) | Grant | |
| Teixeira vs. Te Huna | Teixeira (-308 / Large) | Teixeira (1.76x / Moderate) | PASS | #3 |
| dos Santos vs. Hunt | dos Santos (-438 / Large) | dos Santos (3.20x / Very Large) | dos Santos | |
| Velasquez vs. Silva | Velasquez (-750 / Very Large) | Velasquez (2.11x / Large) | Silva |
The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet.
Favorites to consider: Nurmagomedov, Cerrone, dos Santos
Underdogs to consider:
- Silva vs. Velasquez – Velasquez is the strong ratings favorite, but a “shot in the dark” is warranted as Silva is a strong contender — ratings-wise.
- Holloway over Bermudez – Bermudez is favored by the ratings, but is close to 50/50.
- Grant over Maynard – See above, same deal but a slightly better wager.
- Pyle over Story – The only real disagreement between ratings and odds on this card with no gotchas.
FightMatrix Program: UFC 160 (05-25-2013)
Heavyweight Championship (265)
[#1/#2DD] Cain Velasquez (11-1-0, -701) vs. [#4] Antonio Silva (18-4-0, +490)
Cain Velasquez is the All-Time #6 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Antonio Silva is the All-Time #23 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Cain Velasquez (2-1-0)
2012-12-29: W vs. [#2HW+/#7DD] Junior dos Santos (15-2-0) via UD (50-45, 50-44, 50-43)
2012-05-26: W vs. [#4HW+] Antonio Silva (18-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:36 of round 1
2011-11-12: L vs. [#2HW+/#7DD] Junior dos Santos (15-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:04 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Antonio Silva (2-1-0)
2013-02-02: W vs. [#6HW+] Alistair Overeem (36-12-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:25 of round 3
2012-10-05: W vs. [#12HW+] Travis Browne (14-1-1) via TKO (Punches) in 3:27 of round 1
2012-05-26: L vs. [#1HW+/#2DD] Cain Velasquez (11-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:36 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cain Velasquez 147, Antonio Silva 112
Previous Match-up Record: Cain Velasquez leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[#2/#7DD] Junior dos Santos (15-2-0, -397) vs. [#8] Mark Hunt (9-7-0, +311)
Junior dos Santos is the All-Time #4 ranked Heavyweight and #25 ranked Absolute fighter.
Mark Hunt is the All-Time #18 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Junior dos Santos (2-1-0)
2012-12-29: L vs. [#1HW+/#2DD] Cain Velasquez (11-1-0) via UD (50-45, 50-44, 50-43)
2012-05-26: W vs. [#7HW+] Frank Mir (16-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:04 of round 2
2011-11-12: W vs. [#1HW+/#2DD] Cain Velasquez (11-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:04 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Mark Hunt (3-0-0)
2013-03-03: W vs. [#13HW+] Stefan Struve (25-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:44 of round 3
2012-02-26: W vs. [#19HW+] Cheick Kongo (18-8-2) via TKO (Punches) in 2:11 of round 1
2011-09-24: W vs. [#25HW+] Ben Rothwell (32-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-27, 30-27)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Junior dos Santos 147, Mark Hunt 83
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#10] Glover Teixeira (19-2-0, -284) vs. [#19] James Te Huna (16-5-0, +229)
Last 3 Fights: Glover Teixeira (3-0-0)
2013-01-26: W vs. [#12LHW] Quinton Jackson (32-11-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2012-10-13: W vs. [#56LHW] Fabio Maldonado (19-6-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2
2012-05-26: W vs. [*] Kyle Kingsbury (11-5-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 1:53 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: James Te Huna (3-0-0)
2013-02-16: W vs. [#24LHW] Ryan Jimmo (17-2-0) via UD (29-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-07-11: W vs. [#64LHW] Joey Beltran (14-8-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
2012-03-03: W vs. [#71LHW] Aaron Rosa (17-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:08 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Glover Teixeira 119, James Te Huna 98
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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