This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds.  Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:

1. System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
2. System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity or short-notice.
3. Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
4. Notable home advantage.
5. System inability to project style differences.
6. System inability to factor in bad judging or overturned decisions.

But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense.  We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t.  For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant.  Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.

Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money.  So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above.  I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.

The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet.

Favorites to consider: Head, Jones

Underdogs to consider:

• Villante over St. Preux – Villante has been successful since his drop to 205.  A small bet may be warranted..
• McKenzie over Garcia – The mere fact that Garcia is involved makes me leery to even make note of this bout.  Tread carefully.
• Belcher over Bisping – The fringe contenders at Middleweight are constantly bouncing around due to the congestion and matchmaking.  Still, Belcher seems to be an OK bet.
• Healy over Miller – The system continues its somewhat odd Lightweight love affair with Healy, after breaking up with Brian Cobb.  Will this love stand the test?
• Kongo over Nelson – Due to the stylistic difference which I do not consider in these posts, another potential bet that is clouded with subjective doubt.

Light Heavyweight Championship (205)
[#1/#5DD] Jon Jones (17-1-0, -866) vs. [#3MW] Chael Sonnen (27-12-1, +599)
Jon Jones is the All-Time #3 ranked Light Heavyweight and #13 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jon Jones (3-0-0)
2012-09-22: W vs. [#2MW] Vitor Belfort (22-10-0) via Submission (Keylock) in 0:54 of round 4
2012-04-21: W vs. [#6LHW] Rashad Evans (22-3-1) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)
2011-12-10: W vs. [#2LHW] Lyoto Machida (19-3-0) via Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:26 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Chael Sonnen (2-1-0)
2012-07-07: L vs. [#1MW/#1DD] Anderson Silva (33-4-0) via TKO (Knee to the Body and Punches) in 1:55 of round 2
2012-01-28: W vs. [#11MW] Michael Bisping (23-5-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-10-08: W vs. [#18MW] Brian Stann (12-6-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:51 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jon Jones 217, Chael Sonnen 294
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#11] Michael Bisping (23-5-0, -167) vs. [#17] Alan Belcher (18-7-0, +141)
Michael Bisping is the All-Time #19 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Michael Bisping (1-2-0)
2013-01-19: L vs. [#2MW] Vitor Belfort (22-10-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 1:27 of round 2
2012-09-22: W vs. [#18MW] Brian Stann (12-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-01-28: L vs. [#3MW] Chael Sonnen (27-12-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Alan Belcher (2-1-0)
2012-12-29: L vs. [#6MW] Yushin Okami (29-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2012-05-05: W vs. [#27MW] Rousimar Palhares (14-5-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 4:18 of round 1
2011-09-17: W vs. [*] Jason MacDonald (25-16-0) via Submission (Punches) in 3:48 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Michael Bisping 98, Alan Belcher 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Michael Bisping leads 3-1
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Heavyweight (265)
[#12] Roy Nelson (18-7-0, -233) vs. [#16] Cheick Kongo (18-7-2, +190)

Last 3 Fights: Roy Nelson (2-1-0)
2012-12-15: W vs. [#31HW+] Matt Mitrione (6-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:58 of round 1
2012-05-26: W vs. [#63HW+] Dave Herman (21-5-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:51 of round 1
2012-02-04: L vs. [#5HW+] Fabricio Werdum (16-5-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Cheick Kongo (2-1-0)
2012-07-21: W vs. [#27HW+] Shawn Jordan (14-4-0) via UD (30-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2012-02-26: L vs. [#8HW+] Mark Hunt (9-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:11 of round 1
2011-10-29: W vs. [#31HW+] Matt Mitrione (6-2-0) via UD (30-27, 29-27, 29-28)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Roy Nelson 133, Cheick Kongo 280
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
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It has been about 7 months since we made a bet in the “Gambling Analysis” series, so I thought it was a good time to pull it out of retirement.  Although similar to the “Ratings vs. Odds” series, in this post we use the ratings more as a supporting factor rather than a guiding factor.

I am usually against betting on huge favorites, but I don’t think you can go wrong on Jones @ -857 (the current meta-average).  He projects at somewhere around -1100 and I can see Sonnen plodding around the octagon, until he gets stopped late in the 2nd with a barrage of strikes.   There is a chance that the return to 205 makes Sonnen a better fighter, but I just don’t see him being able to take Jones out.

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For a reference, here are the details for our past picks:

• UFC 128 – Jon Jones vs Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua: Jones @ -210
  • Predicted Outcome: TKO (Rd 2/3) | Actual: TKO (Rd 3)
• UFC 129 – Georges St. Pierre vs Jake Shields: St. Pierre @ -450
  • Predicted Outcome: Wide Unanimous Decision | Actual: Unanimous Decision
• UFC 129 – Lyoto Machida vs Randy Couture: Machida @ -350
  • No Outcome Predicted
• UFC 130 – Frank Mir vs Roy Nelson: Mir @ -125
  • Predicted Outcome: Split Decision | Actual: Unanimous Decision
• StrikeForce – Chad Griggs vs Valentijn Overeem: Griggs @ -110
  • Predicted Outcome: TKO | Actual: TKO
• StrikeForce – Justin Wilcox vs Gesias Calvancante: Wilcox @ +130
  • No Contest
• UFC on FX – Jim Miller vs Melvin Guillard: Miller @ -213
  • Predicted Outcome: Submission (Rd 2) | Actual: Submission (Rd 1)
• UFC on Fuel TV – Stefan Struve vs Dave Herman: Herman @ -140
  • Predicted Outcome: KO/TKO (Rd 1) | Actual: TKO (Rd 2)
• UFC on Fuel TV 2 – Alexander Gustaffson vs Thiago Silva: Gustaffson @ -225
  • No Outcome Predicted
• Strikeforce GP Final – Daniel Cormier vs. Josh Barnett: Cormier @ -105
  • Predicted Outcome: KO/TKO (Rd 3) | Actual: Unanimous Decision
• UFC 152 – Joseph Benavidez vs. Demetrious Johnson: Benavidez @ -290
  • Predicted Outcome: TKO (Rd 3) | Actual: Split Decision Loss
• UFC 159 – Jon Jones vs. Chael Sonnen: Jones @ -857
  • Predicted Outcome: TKO (Rd 2) | Actual:

If you had bet $100 on each one of the winners at the odds listed above, you would have made a profit of: $255.95.  If you heeded our advice on going “big” for certain match-ups (Machida/Couture), you’d likely have more profit.  We’re also doing pretty good on the specific outcome plays, but availability of these are not as prominent as they are in boxing betting, so we don’t count them.

Keep in mind that the above is for “entertainment purposes only”.

This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds.  Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:

1. System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
2. System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity.
3. Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
4. Notable home advantage.
5. System inability to project style differences.
6. System inability to factor in bad judging or overturned decisions.

But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense.  We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t.  For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant.  Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.

Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money.  So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above.I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses (except for when Leonard Garcia is involved for #6) — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.

The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet.

Favorites to consider: Jury

Underdogs to consider:

• Elkins over Mendes: I partially blame this on poor recent matchmaking for Mendes.  Two squash matches did nothing for his rating.  Even still, At such ridiculous odds, Elkins is worth a bet.
• Viana over Dillashaw: Viana has a real shot at winning this one.  An attractive underdog bet.

Lightweight Championship (155)
[#1/#6DD] Ben Henderson (18-2-0, -281) vs. [#2] Gilbert Melendez (21-2-0, +227)
Ben Henderson is the All-Time #6 ranked Lightweight fighter.
Gilbert Melendez is the All-Time #4 ranked Lightweight and #17 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Ben Henderson (3-0-0)
2012-12-08: W vs. [#6LW] Nate Diaz (16-8-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-43)
2012-08-11: W vs. [#2FW] Frankie Edgar (15-4-1) via SD (46-49, 48-47, 48-47)
2012-02-26: W vs. [#2FW] Frankie Edgar (15-4-1) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Gilbert Melendez (3-0-0)
2012-05-19: W vs. [#16LW] Josh Thomson (19-5-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)
2011-12-17: W vs. [#20LW] Jorge Masvidal (23-7-0) via UD (49-46, 50-45, 50-45)
2011-04-09: W vs. [#8FW] Tatsuya Kawajiri (32-7-2) via TKO (Elbows) in 3:14 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ben Henderson 133, Gilbert Melendez 336
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[#4] Daniel Cormier (11-0-0, -426) vs. [#7] Frank Mir (16-6-0, +328)
Daniel Cormier is the All-Time #24 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Frank Mir is the All-Time #8 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Daniel Cormier (3-0-0)
2013-01-12: W vs. [#139LHW] Dion Staring (28-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:02 of round 2
2012-05-19: W vs. [#10HW+] Josh Barnett (32-6-0) via UD (49-46, 50-45, 50-45)
2011-09-10: W vs. [#3HW+] Antonio Silva (18-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:56 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Frank Mir (2-1-0)
2012-05-26: L vs. [#2HW+/#7DD] Junior dos Santos (15-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:04 of round 2
2011-12-10: W vs. [#9HW+] Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (34-7-1) via Technical Submission (Kimura) in 3:38 of round 1
2011-05-28: W vs. [#12HW+] Roy Nelson (18-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Daniel Cormier 98, Frank Mir 329
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#6] Nate Diaz (16-8-0, -201) vs. [#16] Josh Thomson (19-5-0, +166)
Nate Diaz is the All-Time #23 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Nate Diaz (2-1-0)
2012-12-08: L vs. [#1LW/#6DD] Ben Henderson (18-2-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-43)
2012-05-05: W vs. [#11LW] Jim Miller (22-4-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:09 of round 2
2011-12-30: W vs. [#15LW] Donald Cerrone (19-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Josh Thomson (1-2-0)
2012-05-19: L vs. [#2LW] Gilbert Melendez (21-2-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)
2012-03-03: W vs. [#87LW] K.J. Noons (11-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2010-12-31: L vs. [#8FW] Tatsuya Kawajiri (32-7-2) via UD ()

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Nate Diaz 133, Josh Thomson 336
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Josh Thomson leads 1-0
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