FYI – We’ll likely have a mid-week update to accommodate the UFC show on Wednesday night.
FYI – We’ll likely have a mid-week update to accommodate the UFC show on Wednesday night.
Notable Info
| Saturday, July 18th 2026: Professional Fighters League PFL Austin: Van Steenis vs. Eblen 2 | |||
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| Last Fight Date: 3/20/2026 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#16 MW] Fabian Edwards Last 5: L W W W W | Last Fight Date: 3/28/2026 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#50 MW] Bryan Battle Last 5: W W W L W | ||
| Saturday, June 27th 2026: Professional Fighters League PFL San Diego: McKee vs. Isbulaev | |||
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| Last Fight Date: 8/15/2025 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#16 W125] Jena Bishop Last 5: W L W W W | Last Fight Date: 4/11/2026 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#60 W125] Shanna Young Last 5: W L W L W | ||
| Sunday, May 31st 2026: Shooto Professional Shooto 2026 Vol. 4 | |||
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| Last Fight Date: 11/16/2025 [Shooto] Last Opponent: [#245 FLW] Jo Arai Last 5: W W W W L | Last Fight Date: 1/18/2026 [Shooto] Last Opponent: [#40 SW] Ken Asahina Last 5: W W W W W | ||

| [NR] | Shavkat Rakhmonov |   | [#1 MW] | Khamzat Chimaev |
| [#3 WW] | Carlos Prates |   | [#7 WW] | Jack Della Maddalena |
| [#1 WW] | Islam Makhachev |   | [#3 LW] | Arman Tsarukyan |
| [#1 LW] | Ilia Topuria |   | [#37 HW] | Brando Pericic |
| [#10 FLW] | Steve Erceg |   | [#17 LW] | Beneil Dariush |

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#8] Mauricio Rua (21-7-0, +120) vs. [#15] Chael Sonnen (27-13-1, -125)
Mauricio Rua is the All-Time #6 ranked Light Heavyweight and #18 ranked Absolute fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Mauricio Rua (1-2-0)
2012-12-08: L vs. [#6LHW] Alexander Gustafsson (15-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
2012-08-04: W vs. [#36LHW] Brandon Vera (12-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:09 of round 4
2011-11-19: L vs. [#5LHW] Dan Henderson (29-10-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)
Last 3 Fights: Chael Sonnen (1-2-0)
2013-04-27: L vs. [#1LHW/#4DD] Jon Jones (18-1-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 4:33 of round 1
2012-07-07: L vs. [#2MW/#8DD] Anderson Silva (33-5-0) via TKO (Knee to the Body and Punches) in 1:55 of round 2
2012-01-28: W vs. [#8MW] Michael Bisping (24-5-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mauricio Rua 252, Chael Sonnen 112
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Mauricio Rua leads 2-0
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Heavyweight (265)
[#6] Alistair Overeem (36-12-0, -200) vs. [#11] Travis Browne (14-1-1, +190)
Alistair Overeem is the All-Time #13 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Alistair Overeem (2-1-0)
2013-02-02: L vs. [#4HW+] Antonio Silva (18-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:25 of round 3
2011-12-30: W vs. [*] Brock Lesnar (5-3-0) via TKO (Kick to the Body and Punches) in 2:26 of round 1
2011-06-18: W vs. [#5HW+] Fabricio Werdum (17-5-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Travis Browne (2-1-0)
2013-04-13: W vs. [#18HW+] Gabriel Gonzaga (15-7-0) via KO (Elbows) in 1:11 of round 1
2012-10-05: L vs. [#4HW+] Antonio Silva (18-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:27 of round 1
2012-04-21: W vs. [#137LHW] Chad Griggs (11-3-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 2:29 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alistair Overeem 196, Travis Browne 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Bantamweight (135)
[#2] Urijah Faber (28-6-0, -244) vs. [#10] Iuri Alcantara (28-4-0, +230)
Urijah Faber is the All-Time #6 ranked Bantamweight and #10 ranked Absolute fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Urijah Faber (2-1-0)
2013-04-13: W vs. [#31BW] Scott Jorgensen (14-7-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:16 of round 4
2013-02-23: W vs. [#62BW] Ivan Menjivar (25-10-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:34 of round 1
2012-07-21: L vs. [#1BW] Renan Barao (30-1-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)
Last 3 Fights: Iuri Alcantara (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2013-05-18: W vs. [#33FLY] Iliarde Santos (27-8-1) via KO (Punches) in 2:31 of round 1
2013-01-19: NC vs. [#19FLY] Pedro Nobre (15-1-2) via NC (Accidental Foul) in 2:11 of round 1
2012-06-23: L vs. [#28FW] Hacran Dias (21-2-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Urijah Faber 126, Iuri Alcantara 91
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Notable Info

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#46] Angel DeAnda (11-2-0, +926) vs. [#315] Tyrone Spong (1-0-0, -1200)
Last 3 Fights: Angel DeAnda (3-0-0)
2012-11-15: W vs. [#62LHW] Anthony Ruiz (30-18-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:39 of round 3
2012-09-07: W vs. [#402LHW] Drew Montgomery (12-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:30 of round 1
2012-04-21: W vs. [*] Kawika Morton (4-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:04 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Tyrone Spong (1-0-0)
2012-11-03: W vs. [#517HW+] Travis Bartlett (5-4-0) via KO (Punch) in 3:15 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Angel DeAnda 268, Tyrone Spong 280
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#47] Tyson Griffin (16-6-0, -265) vs. [#116] Gesias Cavalcante (17-7-1, +235)
Gesias Cavalcante is the All-Time #16 ranked Lightweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Tyson Griffin (2-1-0)
2012-11-02: W vs. [#93LW] Efrain Escudero (19-7-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2011-10-29: L vs. [#45FW] Bart Palaszewski (36-17-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:45 of round 1
2011-06-26: W vs. [#17FW] Manny Gamburyan (12-7-0) via MD (29-28, 29-28, 29-29)
Last 3 Fights: Gesias Cavalcante (1-2-0)
2013-03-23: L vs. [#18LW] Justin Gaethje (9-0-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 2:27 of round 1
2012-11-03: W vs. [#407LW] T.J. OBrien (18-7-0) via Submission (Heel Hook) in 1:03 of round 1
2012-06-30: L vs. [#57LW] Luis Palomino (21-8-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:41 of round 3
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Tyson Griffin 281, Gesias Cavalcante 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Gesias Cavalcante leads 1-0
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Heavyweight (265)
[#52] Dave Huckaba (20-5-0, +225) vs. [*] Ray Sefo (2-1-0, -253)
Last 3 Fights: Dave Huckaba (3-0-0)
2013-01-18: W vs. [#526HW+] Carter Williams (4-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:00 of round 2
2012-10-20: W vs. [#122HW+] Carl Seumanutafa (8-4-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:35 of round 1
2012-05-26: W vs. [#327HW+] Rob Jackson (5-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:30 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Ray Sefo (2-1-0)
2011-02-12: L vs. [#206HW+] Valentijn Overeem (30-29-0) via Submission (Neck Crank) in 1:37 of round 1
2009-09-25: W vs. [*] Kevin Jordan (11-9-0) via Submission (Knee Injury) in 0:24 of round 2
2005-07-06: W vs. [*] Min Soo Kim (3-7-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 0:30 of round 2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dave Huckaba 204, Ray Sefo 910
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Keep Reading

Middleweight
| Rank | Fight Matrix | Diff | Diff | Sherdog |
| 1 | Chris Weidman | = | = | Chris Weidman |
| 2 | Anderson Silva | = | = | Anderson Silva |
| 3 | Vitor Belfort | = | = | Vitor Belfort |
| 4 | Yushin Okami | = | = | Yushin Okami |
| 5 | Hector Lombard | Next 5 | -3 | Michael Bisping |
| 6 | Ronaldo Souza | -3 | -1 | Mark Munoz |
| 7 | Mark Munoz | +1 | -2 | Luke Rockhold |
| 8 | Michael Bisping | +3 | Next 5 | Costas Philippou |
| 9 | Luke Rockhold | +2 | +3 | Ronaldo Souza |
| 10 | Mamed Khalidov | = | = | Mamed Khalidov |
| Next 5 | Costas Philippou Tim Kennedy Alexander Shlemenko Thales Leites Cung Le |
Tim Boetsch Francis Carmont Tim Kennedy Hector Lombard Alexander Shlemenko |
Contrary to the prior two divisions we looked at, Middleweight shows some considerable differences. Also, the table just got a lot harder to read.
Light Heavyweight
| Rank | Fight Matrix | Diff | Sherdog |
| 1 | Jon Jones | = | Jon Jones |
| 2 | Phil Davis | -1 | Rashad Evans |
| 3 | Lyoto Machida | -1 | Phil Davis |
| 4 | Rashad Evans | +2 | Lyoto Machida |
| 5 | Dan Henderson | = | Dan Henderson |
| 6 | Alexander Gustaffson | = | Alexander Gustaffson |
| 7 | Antonio Rogerio Nogueira | = | Antonio Rogerio Nogueira |
| 8 | Mauricio Rua | = | Mauricio Rua |
| 9 | Glover Teixeira | = | Glover Teixeira |
| 10 | Ryan Bader | = | Ryan Bader |
| Next 5 | Gegard Mousasi Emanuel Newton Quinton Jackson Anthony Johnson Chael Sonnen |
Gegard Mousasi Emanuel Newton James Te Huna Thiago Silva Attila Vegh |
The two rankings again are eerily similar, with the first notable difference being Rashad Evans. But what a mess it is, overall.
Sherdog, one of the most, if not THE most respected MMA web site on the Internet has produced Top 10 rankings for quite sometime. I thought I would take a look at their latest Top 10s and compare the differences between the fights they rank and the ones we rank, including some commentary.
Heavyweight
| Rank | Fight Matrix | Diff | Sherdog |
| 1 | Cain Velasquez | = | Cain Velasquez |
| 2 | Junior dos Santos | = | Junior dos Santos |
| 3 | Daniel Cormier | -1 | Fabricio Werdum |
| 4 | Antonio Silva | -1 | Daniel Cormier |
| 5 | Fabricio Werdum | +2 | Antonio Silva |
| 6 | Alistair Overeem | = | Alistair Overeem |
| 7 | Frank Mir | = | Frank Mir |
| 8 | Mark Hunt | Next 5 | Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira |
| 9 | Josh Barnett | = | Josh Barnett |
| 10 | Stipe Miocic | = | Stipe Miocic |
| Next 5 | Travis Browne Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira Roy Nelson Stefan Struve Alexander Volkov |
Travis Browne Gabriel Gonzaga Mark Hunt Roy Nelson Stefan Struve |
The two rankings are eerily similar, with the first notable difference being Fabricio Werdum.
[#86 HW]
Robert Neal (2-0-0)
(The freeze-frame above shows Wessel, not Neal)
This early-career Heavyweight is looking for fights — he’s ready to put his undefeated record and Top 100 Fight Matrix ranking on the line.
If you are interesting in featuring Robert Neal on one of your contacts, please Email contact_group@fightmatrix.com and provide more details.
This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds. Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.
With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:
But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense. We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t. For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant. Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.
Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money. So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above. I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.
The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.
Having said all that, let’s get started:
Ratings vs. Odds
| Fight | Odds Favorite | Rating Favorite | I’d bet on | “Gotchas” |
| Marunde vs. Andrade | Andrade (-165 / Small) | Marunde (1.03x / Pick ‘Em) | PASS | #4 |
| Barroso vs. Oliveira | Oliveira (-133 / Very Small) | Barroso (1.03x / Pick ‘Em) | PASS | #1, #2 |
| Yahya vs. Clopton | Yahya (-875 / Very Large) | Yahya (7.86x / Massive) | Yahya | #4 |
| McCall vs. Santos | McCall (-370 / Large) | McCall (1.60x / Moderate) | PASS | #1, #4 |
| Moraes vs. Magny | Moraes (-127 / Very Small) | Magny (1.33x / Small) | PASS | #4 |
| Nunes vs. Gaff | Nunes (-331 / Large) | Gaff (1.04x / Pick ‘Em) | PASS | #4 |
| Magalhaes vs. Perosh | Magalhaes (-350 / Large) | Magalhaes (1.28x / Small) | PASS | #4 |
| Lineker vs. Maria Tome | Lineker (-425 / Large) | Lineker (1.78x / Moderate) | Tome | |
| Leites vs. Watson | Leites (-120 / Pick ‘Em) | Leites (1.13x / Very Small) | PASS | #4 |
| Ferreira vs. Santos | Ferreira (-400 / Large) | Ferreira (1.97x / Large) | PASS | |
| Machida vs. Davis | Machida (-340 / Large) | Machida (3.27x / Very Large) | Machida | #4 |
| Aldo vs. Sung Jung | Aldo (-600 / Very Large) | Aldo (4.78x / Massive) | Aldo | #4 |
Featherweight Championship (145)
[#1/#4DD] Jose Aldo (22-1-0, -645) vs. [#16] Chan Sung Jung (13-3-0, +530)
Jose Aldo is the All-Time #1 ranked Featherweight and #11 ranked Absolute fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Jose Aldo (3-0-0)
2013-02-02: W vs. [#2FW] Frankie Edgar (16-4-1) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
2012-01-14: W vs. [#6FW] Chad Mendes (14-1-0) via KO (Knee) in 4:59 of round 1
2011-10-08: W vs. [*] Kenny Florian (14-6-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
Last 3 Fights: Chan Sung Jung (3-0-0)
2012-05-15: W vs. [#30FW] Dustin Poirier (13-3-0) via Technical Submission (Brabo Choke) in 1:07 of round 4
2011-12-10: W vs. [*] Mark Hominick (20-12-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:07 of round 1
2011-03-26: W vs. [#98FW] Leonard Garcia (16-11-1) via Submission (Twister) in 4:59 of round 2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jose Aldo 182, Chan Sung Jung 445
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#2] Lyoto Machida (19-3-0, -340) vs. [#15] Phil Davis (11-1-0, +306)
Lyoto Machida is the All-Time #7 ranked Light Heavyweight and #16 ranked Absolute fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Lyoto Machida (2-1-0)
2013-02-23: W vs. [#4LHW] Dan Henderson (29-10-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-08-04: W vs. [#9LHW] Ryan Bader (15-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:32 of round 2
2011-12-10: L vs. [#1LHW/#3DD] Jon Jones (18-1-0) via Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:26 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Phil Davis (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2013-04-27: W vs. [#32LHW] Vinny Magalhaes (10-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2012-10-13: W vs. [#233LHW] Wagner Prado (8-2-0) via Submission (Anaconda Choke) in 4:29 of round 2
2012-08-04: NC vs. [#233LHW] Wagner Prado (8-2-0) via NC (Accidental Eye Poke) in 1:28 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Lyoto Machida 161, Phil Davis 98
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Lyoto Machida leads 1-0
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Middleweight (185)
[#265] Cezar Ferreira (5-2-0, -412) vs. [#800WW] Thiago Santos (8-1-0, +328)
Last 3 Fights: Cezar Ferreira (2-1-0)
2012-06-23: W vs. [#436WW] Sergio Moraes (7-2-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2011-08-20: L vs. [#38MW] Elvis Mutapcic (13-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:25 of round 1
2011-04-16: W vs. [*] Chaun Sims (5-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:17 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Thiago Santos (2-1-0)
2012-07-27: W vs. [NA] Denis Figueira da Silva (1-4-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in ? of round 1
2012-04-28: L vs. [#399MW] Vicente Luque (6-4-1) via TKO (Punches) in ? of round 1
2012-03-03: W vs. [#1237WW] Junior Vidal (3-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in ? of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cezar Ferreira 406, Thiago Santos 372
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Keep Reading
This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds. Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.
With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:
But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense. We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t. For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant. Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.
Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money. So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above. I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.
The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.
Having said all that, let’s get started:
Ratings vs. Odds
| Fight | Odds Favorite | Rating Favorite | I’d bet on | “Gotchas” |
| Albert vs. Meza | Albert (-230 / Moderate) | Meza (2.30x / Large) | PASS | #1 |
| Riley vs. Salas | Salas (-220 / Moderate) | Salas (3.44x / Very Large) | PASS | #2 |
| Herman vs. Smith | Herman (-235 / Moderate) | Herman (2.04x / Large) | Herman | |
| Kedzie vs. de Randamie | de Randamie (-108 / Pick ‘Em) | de Randamie (1.45x / Moderate) | PASS | #1 |
| Edwards vs. Cruickshank | Cruickshank (-125 / Very Small) | Edwards (1.77x / Moderate) | Edwards | |
| Guillard vs. Danzig | Guillard (-115 / Pick ‘Em) | Guillard (1.21x / Very Small) | PASS | |
| Castillo vs. Means | Castillo (-205 / Moderate) | Castillo (1.26x / Small) | Means | |
| Masvidal vs. Chiesa | Masvidal (-270 / Moderate) | Masvidal (2.43x / Large) | PASS | #3 |
| Carmouche vs. Andrade | Carmouche (-525 / Very Large) | Carmouche (1.15x / Very Small) | PASS | #3, #4 |
| Lawler vs. Voelker | Lawler (-260 / Moderate) | Lawler (5.85x / Massive) | Lawler | |
| MacDonald vs. Ellenberger | MacDonald (-220 / Moderate) | Ellenberger (1.44x / Small) | Ellenberger | |
| Johnson vs. Moraga | Johnson (-450 / Large) | Johnson (2.41x / Large) | PASS |
One of our viewers, Bryan Stone has been using our rankings to preview upcoming UFC events. Check out his video below and give him some thumbs up!