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UFC 93 Review

Posted on January 19, 2009 by Oleg

UFC 93 took place in Dublin, Ireland; and as it has been the case with many of the overseas UFC events, it did not feature a very strong card.  In the main event, Rich Franklin took on Dan Henderson for a chance to coach the upcoming season of ‘The Ultimate Fighter’ opposite of Michael Bisping.  Strangely enough, the Franklin-Henderson fight was at 205 lbs, despite the fact that the winner would face Bisping at 185.

The co-main event was a rematch between Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua and Mark Coleman – both men making a return to action after a long layoff.  The only other notable bouts on the card were the UFC debut of Denis Kang (facing Alan Belcher) and a bout between two gatekeepers of the welterweight division – Marcus Davis and Chris Lytle.  Let’s see how it all turned out:

Keep Reading

MMA Rankings Updated: 1/18/09

Posted on January 18, 2009 by Jason

 Notable Info

  • Ratings updated with recent shows from UFC, Shooto, and others.

Other interesting notes…

  • Rich Franklin proves that he belongs near the top of the Light Heavyweight division, nearly taking a decision from Dan Henderson.  Henderson re-enters Light Heavy at #5, while Franklin drops to #6.
  • In a disappointing performance against Coleman, Rua re-enters Light Heavy at #8.  Coleman enters the list just outside of the Top 20.
  • Martin Kampmann makes a successful debut at Welterweight, entering at #23.  Though, in the UFC, there’s a tough road to climb to the top of the Welterweight division.
  • Although he is the Shooto Flyweight champion, Shinichi Kojima nearly lost the top spot at Flyweight with a draw against (4-4-2) Jess Taitano.  Taitano shoots back into the Top 10, where he was before we discovered and entered some unreported losses on his record.

Featured Upcoming Bouts (Outside of UFC)

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Last Fight Date: 12/13/2025 [PFL]
Last Opponent: [#2 W145] Sara Collins
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Last Opponent: [#10 W135] Jacqueline Cavalcanti
Last 5: W L W L W
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 [#5 FW] A.J. McKee [#6 FW] Rajabali Shaidullaev
Last Fight Date: 6/27/2026 [PFL]
Last Opponent: [#20 FW] Salamat Isbulaev
Last 5: W L W W W
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Last Opponent: [#249 FW] Yuta Kubo
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Last Opponent: [#2 W105] Seika Izawa
Last 5: W L W W L
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[#1 WW]  Islam Makhachev [#178 WW]  Namo Fazil
[#5 WW]  Ian Garry [NR]  Khabib Nurmagomedov
[#29 WW]  Myktybek Orolbai [#2 LW]  Ilia Topuria
[#25 WW]  Neil Magny [#1 FW]  Alexander Volkanovski
[#2 W115]  Mackenzie Dern [#3 WW]  Carlos Prates
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UFC 93: How they stack up

Posted on January 15, 2009 by Jason

Light Heavyweight
[#3 MW] Dan Henderson vs. [#5] Rich Franklin

Light Heavyweight
[NR] Mauricio Rua vs. [NR] Mark Coleman

Middleweight
[#18] Denis Kang vs. [#43] Alan Belcher

Welterweight
[#22] Marcus Davis vs. [#26] Chris Lytle

Middleweight
[#37] Rousimar Palhares vs. [#59] Jeremy Horn

Welterweight
[#34 MW] Martin Kampmann vs. [#123] Alexandre Barros

Light Heavyweight
[#34] Eric Schafer vs. [#60] Antonio Mendes

Light Heavyweight
[NR] Tomasz Drwal vs. [#134] Ivan Serati

Welterweight
[#162 MW] John Hathaway vs. [#300] Thomas Egan

Lightweight
[#210] Dennis Siver vs. [*] Nate Mohr

Ranking Notes:  Rankings are projected when a fighter is fighting in a new weight class.  Gray font represents an approximate ranking. An asterisk represents a fighter who is ranked, but too low for an approximation. These two scenarios will clear up slightly as we move forward. “NR” means the fighter is not ranked, due to inactivity, or due to a rating that is at or below the default starter rating.

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MMA Rankings Updated: 1/11/09

Posted on January 11, 2009 by Jason

Notable Info

  • Ratings updated with recent shows from M-1, Ring of Fire, and others.
  • Inserted some previously missing older shows.
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UFC 93 & 94: Three A vs C matches

Posted on January 11, 2009 by Jason

Looking ahead to next weekend’s UFC 93 card, I discovered two instances of “A vs C” matches that fit the same guidelines as those I analyzed in last week’s study.

Denis Kang (A) beat Marvin Eastman (B) on 10/25/2008
Marvin Eastman (B) beat Alan Belcher (C) on 9/24/2005
Denis Kang (A) ??? Alan Belcher (C) on 1/17/2009

Marcus Davis (A) beat Shonie Carter (B) on 12/13/2006
Shonie Carter (B) beat Chris Lytle (C) on 9/24/2000
Marcus Davis (A) ??? Chris Lytle (C) on 1/17/2009

Although there was a large timegap between A/B and B/C (especially in the Davis/Lytle group), A has a higher rating in each of the UFC 93 matches.  You have to feel good about Kang and Davis winning their respective matches.

UFC 94 has one of these matches, and it is the main event.

Georges St. Pierre (A) beat Matt Hughes (B) on 12/29/2007
Matt Hughes (B) beat BJ Penn (C) on 9/23/2006
Georges St. Pierre (A) ??? BJ Penn (C) on 1/31/2009

As is the case with the previously mentioned matches, St. Pierre carries a higher rating than Penn.  Even though Hughes beat GSP, and Penn beat Hughes, their most recent rematches are what matter the most.

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MMA Rankings Updated: 1/4/09

Posted on January 4, 2009 by Jason

Notable Info

  • Ratings updated with recent shows from Sengoku and others.

Other interesting notes…

  • Higher ranked fighters Satoru Kitaoka, and Jorge Santiago strengthen their positions with big wins over Takanori Gomi, and Kazuo Misaki respectively.
  • Alexis Vila, former Cuban wrestling champion, is now properly placed in the Flyweight division.  His point total allows him to debut at #11 in the rankings.
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If A beats B and B beats C, will A beat C?

Posted on January 1, 2009 by Jason

It’s an interesting subject that probably comes up more in boxing than in MMA, but it’s definitely more intriguing in the MMA world due to the large variance in styles.  I ran the analysis with all mixed martial arts bouts that we have on record (over 68,000).

 

So how often does A beat C?  First, let’s acknowledge the potential issues in analyzing this statistic.

One problem is that sometimes these A/B,  B/C, and A/C bouts take place multiple times, with varying results.   Another problem lies in the timing of said bouts.  So I laid out some guidelines.

  • A/B and B/C must both take place before A/C.  This is an obvious one.
  • The most recent A/B and B/C results before A/C are acknowledged.  In other words, if A beat B five years before A/C, but A lost to B three months ago in their most recent bout before A/C, then this chain won’t be included in the analysis.
  • If multiple A/C results are available and all guidelines are met, then all A/Cs will be counted.

In the end, A prevailed over C at a 71% success rate (2988 of 4210).

When all three bouts occur within a 3 year window, the success rate improves to 72.3%  (2144 of 2967).

Within a 2 year window, 73% (1590 of 2179).

18 months, 74.2% (1211 of 1633).

12 months, 75.2% (732 of 974).

9 months, 77.5% (488 of 630).

6 months, 80.9% (262 of 324).

3 months, 85.6% (77 of 90).

Sample Analysis: Cheick Kongo

Cheick Kongo (A) beat Andre Tete (B) on 6/10/2001
Andre Tete (B) beat Dave Dagliesh (C) on 12/1/2002
Cheick Kongo (A) beat Dave Dagliesh (C) on 12/11/2005

Cheick Kongo (A) beat Christian Wellisch (B) on 8/26/2006
Christian Wellisch (B) beat Dan Evensen (C) on 4/1/2006
Cheick Kongo (A) beat Dan Evensen (C) on 8/9/2008

Cheick Kongo (A) beat Mirko Filipovic (B) on 9/8/2007
Mirko Filipovic (B) beat Heath Herring (C) on 6/8/2003
Cheick Kongo (A) failed to beat Heath Herring (C) on 3/1/2008

Thanks to ltokuda, one of our readers, for the idea!

MMA Rankings Updated: 12/31/08

Posted on December 31, 2008 by Jason

Notable Info

  • Ratings updated with recent shows from UFC and K-1, as well as some minor shows.

Other interesting notes…

  • Frank Mir’s win shakes up the Heavyweight division as he shoots up to #2, while Nogueira drops to #4.
  • The Griffin/Evans and Jackson/Silva results create a strange scenario at the top of the Light Heavyweight division.  Evans takes the top spot, while Jackson’s win was enough to keep him at #2.  Griffin drops to #3.  Is Jackson/Evans next?
  • A similar situation happened at Lightweight, with Aoki submitting Alvarez, which was unexpected considering Hansen-Alvarez and Hansen-Aoki.
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UFC 92 Review

Posted on December 29, 2008 by Oleg

Traditionally the UFC has always had a stellar lineup for their end-of-year show, and this year was no different.  With the lightheavyweight title on the line in the main event, the interim heavyweight title defended in the co-main, and the third installation of the Wanderlei Silva-Quinton Jackson series, ‘The Ultimate 2008’ had plenty of hype going into the show.

 

Cheik Kongo vs. Mostapha Al-Turk (HW)

In the first televised bout, the UFC newcomer Al-Turk started out attempting to exchange strikes with Kongo, until Cheik caught a kick and threw Al-Turk to the canvas.  After getting up, Al-Turk went for the takedown but was thwarted, then landed a knee to Kongo’s groin from a clinch.  After a break for Cheik to recover, the fighters went back to clinch and Kongo retaliated with a knee to the groin of Al-Turk.  When the fight restarted again, Kongo came out aggressive and dropped Al-Turk then following him down, pounding away with elbows and punches that split Al-Turk’s forehead wide open and caused the referee to stop the bout, giving Kongo the TKO victory.

Fight grade: 4/5 3/5 (1 point deduction for low blows)

Aftermath: Nut shots aside, a good performance for Kongo that should place him in the top tier of contenders for the winner of the heavyweight championship mini-tournament.  He is perhaps one win away from a title shot.  Al-Turk does not impress in his debut; look for him on the televisual undercard of a UK UFC event some time in 2009.

Keep Reading

MMA Fighters rematch a lot!

Posted on December 25, 2008 by Jason

Our FightMatrix database shows the following rematch-related statistics:

  • 2,307 bouts have taken place where the fighters have fought at least once previous.
  • 196 bouts where fighters have fought at least twice previous…. and 24 bouts, at least three times previous.
  • Two pairs of fighters have fought each other six times! (Travis Fulton & Rory Prazak, Brian Robinson & Nate Kopel)

In instances where fighters meet in their second encounter, the same winner has prevailed only 64.5% of the time.  If the first fight ended in a knockout or submission, this number increases to 67.7%.  These statistics prove that MMA is a very volatile sport compared to boxing, where the percentage of repeat winners after a knockout in the first bout since 1985 is almost 90% (I researched this myself).

Not many rematches have taken place after the first bout ended in disqualification.  In fact, its very rare, as we only have record of 19 said rematches.  The previous winner won 9 out of these 19.

How about when a fighter wins the first two matches by KO or TKO, and then rematches the loser for a third time?  In other words, does Quinton stand a chance on Saturday?  The dataset is extremely small, but the statistics show that the KO/TKO winner of the first two bouts, will win the third bout 89% of the time.

 

UFC 92: How they stack up

Posted on December 24, 2008 by Jason

UFC Light Heavyweight Championship
[#1] Forrest Griffin vs. [#4] Rashad Evans

UFC Interim Heavyweight Championship
[#2] Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. [#26] Frank Mir

Light Heavyweight
[#2] Quinton Jackson vs. [#5] Wanderlei Silva

Middleweight
[#39] Mike Massenzio vs. [#175] C.B. Dollaway

Heavyweight
[#12] Cheick Kongo vs. [#86] Mustafa al Turk

Middleweight
[#15] Yushin Okami vs. [#25] Dean Lister

Light Heavyweight
[#29] Matt Hamill vs. [#42] Reese Andy

Welterweight
[#22] Brad Blackburn vs. [#27] Ryo Chonan

Welterweight
[#114] Dan Evensen vs. [#200] Pat Barry

 

 Ranking Notes:  Rankings are projected when a fighter is fighting in a new weight class.  Gray font represents an approximate ranking. An asterisk represents a fighter who is ranked, but too low for an approximation. These two scenarios will clear up slightly as we move forward. “NR” means the fighter is not ranked, due to inactivity, or due to a rating that is at or below the default starter rating.

MMA Rankings Updated: 12/24/08

Posted on December 24, 2008 by Jason

Notable Info

  • Mainly a maintenance update.  There was a show from DEEP and some other bout updates, but mainly just a pre-UFC 92 refresh.

Top Lightweights outside of UFC

Posted on December 24, 2008 by Oleg

Last week I examined the top fighters in the UFC’s lightweight division.  As mentioned, UFC has abandoned the weight class for several years, allowing other MMA organizations to step up and fill the void.  Even though the lightweights are back in the UFC in a major way, it is K-1’s Dream promotion that boasts the most top fighters on their roster: four out of the Top 10, according to the latest Fightmatrix.com ranking.  The other major player in the division is World Victory Road – a Japanese promotion that rose from the ashes of Pride FC.

With three major lightweight showdowns coming up in the next month (Hansen vs. Calvancante and Aoki vs. Alvarez on K-1’s year-end extravaganza, as well as Gomi vs. Kitaoka in WVR on January 4th), this is a good time to take a look at the ten top lightweights outside of the UFC.

Keep Reading

December Archive Updated

Posted on December 24, 2008 by Oleg

Fightmatrix.com MMA rankings archive has been updated with the rankings as of December 7, 2008.

A trip in the wayback machine.. Heavyweights

Posted on December 20, 2008 by Jason

Five years ago, there was a two-headed dragon at the top of the Heavyweight division, as the rating system would’ve had Fedor and Nog in a virtual tie.  Fedor did have a decision win over Nog earlier in the year, but Fedor took the easy road for the remainder of 2003, while Nog knocked off Ricco Rodriguez and Mirko Filipovic.  Both were top heavyweights at the time of those bouts, and still were at the end of 2003.

Heavyweights – December 20, 2003

Rank Fighter Record Points
1 Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
Last Fight: 11/9/2003 [PRIDE]
21-2-1
359
2 Fedor Emelianenko
Last Fight: 8/10/2003 [PRIDE]
15-1-0
358
3 Josh Barnett
Last Fight: 10/13/2003 [NJPW]
16-1-0
277
4 Tim Sylvia
Last Fight: 9/26/2003 [UFC]
18-1-0
214
5 Mirko Filipovic
Last Fight: 11/9/2003 [PRIDE]
7-1-2
151
6 Pedro Rizzo
Last Fight: 11/21/2003 [UFC]
14-5-0
141
7 Ricco Rodriguez
Last Fight: 11/21/2003 [UFC]
14-4-0
125
8 Andrei Arlovski
Last Fight: 9/26/2003 [UFC]
5-3-0
121
9 Heath Herring
Last Fight: 11/9/2003 [PRIDE]
21-9-0
103
10 Mark Coleman
Last Fight: 6/8/2003 [PRIDE]
13-5-0
97

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