UFC on Fox 30: Preview & Predictions
It’s more than half way through 2018, and the UFC’s broadcast partnership with Fox network is quickly coming to an end. One could say that it was a rocky ride, and with UFC asking for more money while the TV ratings are steadily declining, continuing the relationship was not a winning proposition for Fox. And so in 2019, UFC will be moving on to ESPN as their new broadcast painter, while Fox will be picking up WWE for their brand of sports entertainment. So the UFC on Fox 30 will be one of, if not the last UFC event broadcast on ‘Big Fox’. To commemorate the approaching end of an era, I’ll do something I haven’t done in a while: a preview & predictions for the four fights on the main card.
[#1 LW] Eddie Alvarez vs [#5 LW] Dustin Poirier
Dustin Poirier is a -165 (3/5) favorite over Eddie Alvarez (+135; 4/3) in their rematch at UFC of Fox 30. This is tightly contested rematch and you can see which sports book offers the best odds before betting on this UFC Calgary event; take a look at the sportsbooks which are reviewed on mytopsportsbooks.com. While Alvarez is a former lightweight champ with a longer reach and better wrestling pedigree, Poirier was winning the first fight before illegal knees from Alvarez resulted in a no contest. Poirier had landed almost twice as many significant strikes through the first nine minutes (73-44) and was getting the better of the exchanges both in the clinch and from distance. The 29-year-old Poirier was also able to stifle three of four takedown attempts from the 34-year-old Alvarez.
Despite the betting odds and what the statistics of the first fight show, I’m going to go with the higher ranked fighter in Eddie Alvarez, mainly because I have more confidence in his durability and gas tank. Porrier has never seen a fifth round in his career, while Alvarez has had a couple of five rounders go the distance. Both men were knocked out by Conor McGregor; Porrier has also been stopped by Michael Johnson in 2016, while Eddie’s only T/KO loss besides McGregor was back in 2007. Porrier doesn’t have McGregor’s level of KO power and Alvarez was able to absorb plenty of punishment in their first meeting. And it seems unlikely that either man will be able to submit the other; so unless Dustin somehow manages to land a fight-ending bomb early, I see Alvarez weathering the storm and taking over later in the fight, eventually finishing Porrier in rounds four or five.
Prediction: Eddie Alvarez by TKO.
Featured Upcoming Bouts (Outside of UFC)
| Friday, October 16th 2026: PFL Chicago: Carmouche vs. Bishop 2 | |||
 [#6 W125] Liz Carmouche | [#14 W125] Jena Bishop | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 6/27/2026 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#16 W125] Viviane Araujo Last 5: L W W W W | Last Fight Date: 6/27/2026 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#37 W125] Ariane Lipski da Silva Last 5: W W L W W | ||
| Saturday, November 14th 2026: Professional Fighters League PFL Returns to Dubai: Nemkov vs. Bilostenniy | |||
 [#6 HW] Vadim Nemkov | [#16 HW] Sergey Bilostenniy | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 12/13/2025 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#20 HW] Renan Ferreira Last 5: W W W W W | Last Fight Date: 5/02/2026 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#20 HW] Renan Ferreira Last 5: W W L W W | ||
| Thursday, December 31st 2026: Rizin FF New Years Eve Event | |||
 [#5 FW] Rajabali Shaidullaev |  [#17 FW] Kyoma Akimoto | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 9/10/2026 [Rizin Fighting Federation] Last Opponent: [#7 FW] A.J. McKee Last 5: W W W W W | Last Fight Date: 8/11/2026 [Rizin Fighting Federation] Last Opponent: [#26 FW] Kleber Koike Erbst Last 5: W W W W W | ||
Featured Fighters
| [NR] |  Roberto Soldic | [#1 WW] | Islam Makhachev | |
| [#11 BW] | Payton Talbott | [#26 MW] | Roman Kopylov | |
| [#3 W125] |  Natalia Silva | [#64 MW] |  Damian Pinas | |
| [#81 MW] |  Ateba Abega Gautier | [#10 BW] | Deiveson Figueiredo | |
| [#44 LW] |  Esteban Ribovics | [#43 FLW] |  Imanol Rodriguez |
An Inside Look At Rafael Dos Anjos
There aren’t many serious MMA fans who haven’t heard of Rafael Dos Anjos, a respected and feared welterweight fighter. Rafael is a dangerous Brazilian 3rd degree Jiu-Jitsu black belt, who has notable victories over dangerous fighters like Robbie Lawler, Donald Cerrone, and Nate Diaz. RDA is an elite striker in the eyes of many, a dangerous jiu-jitsu ace and one of the greatest Lightweights of his generation.
Background
Born the capital of Brazil, Rio de Janiero, in 1984 to a modest family, Rafael was constantly getting involved in street fights in school and in the harsh streets of Rio.
This led to a young RDA being introduced to Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu at the age of nine. He was inspired after watching a Rickson Gracie fight, “Vale Tudo Japan”, an early televised Japanese MMA tournament. According to Dos Anjos, once he began training the street fighting quickly stopped.
Rafael over the years earned his blue belt at the age of 16 under the tutelage of Mr. Barradas. He quickly went on to make a name for himself at Blue Belt by winning a National Championship. RDA was quickly promoted to Purple Belt, where he continued to have success winning the Rio de Janeiro State Championship then the World Championship.
RDA continued his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu training and won 3rd place at the Brazilian National BJJ Championship on two occasions as a Brown Belt. This earned him a coveted spot in a restricted group of National Medalist.
Eventually, RDA accomplished the ultimate goal of any Jiu-Jitsu practitioner, being awarded his Black Belt in 2005.
An Inside Look at The Notorious Rousimar Palhares
Rousimar Palhares is quite a polarizing figure within the MMA community and for good reason. He is a dangerous jiu-jitsu expert and has earned a reputation for his submission holds. However, despite this he is an accomplished grappler with an MMA record that’s nothing to sneeze at. Nicknamed Toquinho, for “little tree stump”, comes from his short stocky build. Toquino gained 16 submission victories in MMA with 12 of those coming from leg locks.
Background
The Brazilian jiu-jitsu stand out faced major hurdles and challenges before he ever set foot in an octagon. While most children were going to school, ten year old Palhares along with his sisters worked 13 hour days on a plantation. All while making just enough money to barely survive. From sun up to sun down, he worked, taking care of cattle and cleaning the plantations. Palhares had no opportunity to study or go to school when he was just 10 years old.
As Palhares grew older, his family had enough money to afford him minimal free time. He immediately dove into training martial arts. He first started training Capoeira and then transitioned into Karate. From there he began training jiu-jitsu and with his compact powerful frame he instantly gravitated to it.
When he was 25, Palhares decided to take a leap of faith and left the plantation life and moved to Rio de Janeiro. Once he got to Rio, he began training at Brazilian Top Team. Palhares began his MMA training with the likes of Murilo Bustamante, Ricardo Liborio, Mario Sperry, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Vitor Belfort and Paulo Filho.
UFC Fight Night 134: Shogun vs. Smith (07-22-2018)
Light Heavyweight (205)
[*] Mauricio Rua (25-10-0, +183) vs. [#11] Anthony Smith (29-13-0, -230)
Mauricio Rua is the All-Time #8 ranked Light Heavyweight and #34 ranked Absolute fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Mauricio Rua (3-0-0)
2017-03-11: W vs. [#26LHW] Gian Villante (16-10-0) via TKO in 0:59 of round 3
2016-05-14: W vs. [#15LHW] Corey Anderson (10-4-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2015-08-01: W vs. [*] Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (22-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Anthony Smith (2-1-0)
2018-06-09: W vs. [*] Rashad Evans (21-8-1) via KO (Knee) in 0:53 of round 1
2018-02-03: L vs. [#19MW] Thiago Santos (17-6-0) via TKO (Kick to the Body and Punches) in 1:03 of round 2
2017-09-16: W vs. [#47MW] Hector Lombard (34-9-1) via KO (Punch) in 2:33 of round 3
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mauricio Rua 498, Anthony Smith 43
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#4] Glover Teixeira (27-6-0, -163) vs. [#15] Corey Anderson (10-4-0, +136)
Glover Teixeira is the All-Time #21 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Glover Teixeira (2-1-0)
2017-12-16: W vs. [#23LHW] Misha Cirkunov (13-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:45 of round 1
2017-05-28: L vs. [#3LHW] Alexander Gustafsson (18-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:07 of round 5
2017-02-11: W vs. [#64LHW] Jared Cannonier (10-4-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)
Last 3 Fights: Corey Anderson (1-2-0)
2018-04-21: W vs. [#24LHW] Patrick Cummins (10-5-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-26)
2017-11-04: L vs. [#10LHW] Ovince St. Preux (23-11-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 1:25 of round 3
2017-03-18: L vs. [#12LHW] Jimi Manuwa (17-4-0) via KO (Punch) in 3:05 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Glover Teixeira 218, Corey Anderson 92
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Glover Teixeira leads 3-2
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Middleweight (185)
[#104] Vitor Miranda (12-6-0, +164) vs. [*] Abu Azaitar (13-2-1, -199)
Last 3 Fights: Vitor Miranda (1-2-0)
2017-06-25: L vs. [#60MW] Marvin Vettori (12-4-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2016-05-29: L vs. [#55MW] Chris Camozzi (24-13-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2016-03-05: W vs. [*] Marcelo Guimaraes (9-2-1) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 1:09 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Abu Azaitar (3-0-0)
2016-10-07: W vs. [*] Michael Arrant (15-12-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2016-04-02: W vs. [#269WW] Danny Davis Jr. (13-12-1) via UD ()
2015-12-20: W vs. [#591WW] Ibragim Tibilov (11-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:53 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Vitor Miranda 392, Abu Azaitar 653
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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ELO Sneak Peeks….
Currently, I am working on two flavors for the divisional ranking pages:
Standard Elo
- Starter rating is 1000.
- K-Factor is 170.
- Uses the standard “algorithm of 400” Elo equation.
- Draws have a match impact of 0.5 for each fighter. Wins have a match impact of 1.0 for the winner, 0.0 for the loser.
The standard Elo will remain as is — unless I find a better Starter Rating / K-Factor combination for the sport as a whole or need to fix a bug.
Modified Elo
Coming Soon… Elo Ratings (and eventually, others)
As you may know, the Elo system is a popular rating instrument used in the world of chess. In the combat sports world, it has inspired the widely known boxing ratings over at BoxRec and to a lesser degree, the standard system used here. From a broader standpoint, as far as I know, it is considered the grandfather of mathematical-based rating systems.
Now, it does have its flaws and those flaws were on display for many years over at site called MMA Elo, but those issues were compounded by the lackluster data efforts by that site’s creator — a problem you won’t see here.
At its core, Elo is simple math. That’s what makes it so interesting. It is very simple, but does offer a few variables that can be optimized for the specific task at hand, most notably, the K-factor. Simply put, the K-factor affects the amount of change that a single contest can have — the lower the K-factor, the smaller the potential change and vice-versa.
In chess, a sport that often has a frequent, consistent and logical schedule, the K-factor is quite low, commonly between 16 and 32. It turns out, a K-factor somewhere between 150 and 200 yields the most accurate prediction rates in MMA.
So, to start, the Elo system will be implemented with a starter rating of 1000 and a K-factor in the neighborhood of 170. There will be no provisional system and no K-factor tiers (yet), but the plan is to offer a few flavors and perhaps incorporate some other common systems as well. These flavors will be entirely driven by prediction rates in some shape or form and there will be no emphasis on subjectivity, so things could get a little wacky.
The “standard” system you’ve seen for over a decade will still be the default, but we’ll be giving you the option to filter the divisional pages by system. The one thing to keep in mind, is that the Top X fighters displayed will (at least for now) be driven by the standard system only — which means that the #251 Heavyweight by our standard measure, may be the #249 Heavyweight by Elo, but since he didn’t make the standard cut, he won’t be in the lists. This may or may not change in the future.
Any and all comments are welcome.
FightMatrix Program – UFC Fight Night 133: dos Santos vs. Ivanov (07-13-2018)
Heavyweight (265)
[#10] Junior dos Santos (18-5-0, -175) vs. [#21] Blagoy Ivanov (16-1-0, +146)
Junior dos Santos is the All-Time #6 ranked Heavyweight and #29 ranked Absolute fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Junior dos Santos (1-2-0)
2017-05-13: L vs. [#2HW+/#10DD/#8P4P] Stipe Miocic (18-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:22 of round 1
2016-04-10: W vs. [*] Ben Rothwell (36-10-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2015-12-19: L vs. [#9HW+] Alistair Overeem (43-17-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:43 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Blagoy Ivanov (3-0-0)
2017-11-02: W vs. [#58HW+] Caio Alencar (11-3-0) via UD ()
2017-03-18: W vs. [*] Shawn Jordan (19-8-0) via TKO in 1:43 of round 1
2016-06-17: W vs. [#74HW+] Josh Copeland (16-5-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Junior dos Santos 427, Blagoy Ivanov 254
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#27] Dennis Bermudez (16-8-0, -268) vs. [#48] Rick Glenn (20-5-1, +202)
Last 3 Fights: Dennis Bermudez (0-3-0)
2018-01-27: L vs. [#24FW] Andre Fili (18-5-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 27-30)
2017-07-22: L vs. [#6FW] Darren Elkins (24-5-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2017-02-04: L vs. [*] Chan Sung Jung (14-4-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:49 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Rick Glenn (2-1-0)
2017-12-30: L vs. [#13FW] Myles Jury (17-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2017-09-09: W vs. [#149FW] Gavin Tucker (10-1-0) via UD (30-24, 29-27, 30-25)
2017-02-11: W vs. [*] Phillipe Nover (10-8-1) via SD (29-28, 27-30, 29-28)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dennis Bermudez 168, Rick Glenn 196
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Dennis Bermudez leads 1-0
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Welterweight (170)
[#96] Zak Ottow (16-5-0, +115) vs. [#268] Sage Northcutt (10-2-0, -140)
Last 3 Fights: Zak Ottow (2-1-0)
2018-03-03: W vs. [#213WW] Mike Pyle (27-14-1) via TKO (Punches) in 2:24 of round 1
2017-11-25: L vs. [#84WW] Jingliang Li (15-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:57 of round 1
2017-06-10: W vs. [#131WW] Kiichi Kunimoto (19-7-2) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Sage Northcutt (2-1-0)
2018-02-18: W vs. [#151LW] Thibault Gouti (12-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2017-11-11: W vs. [#314LW] Michel Quinones (8-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2016-12-17: L vs. [#333WW] Mickey Gall (4-1-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:40 of round 2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Zak Ottow 133, Sage Northcutt 146
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Current & All-Time MMA Rankings Updated (07-08-2018)
Notable Info
- Due to a data issue, some men slipped into the women (current) rankings last week. This should now be resolved.