This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds.  Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:

1. System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
2. System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity.
3. Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
4. Notable home advantage.
5. System inability to project style differences.
6. System inability to factor in bad judging decisions.

But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense.  We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t.  For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant.  Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.

Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money.  So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above. I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.

The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

Ratings vs. Odds

Now, to the results — given the odds above:

The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical, so neither fighter is a good bet or there are too many gotchas.

There is just one favorite worth backing:

The Waldburger bet is marked because the ratings difference agrees with the odds, but to a larger degree.   The odds appear way off on this one, unless Catone is a completely different fighter at the new weight.

This leaves three underdogs worth considering:

Cofer vs. Rio – Definitely the weakest play of the three.   If Rio drops below -155 or so, this one becomes a PASS.  Very small play here.

Head vs. Pyle – The system loves Head for his split over Ebersole and while Pyle is justifiably the favorite, at -217, he seems to be too strong of a favorite.

Barry vs. del Rosario – The strongest of the three underdogs worth a play.

Heavyweight (265)
[#12] Roy Nelson (17-7-0) vs. [#28] Matt Mitrione (5-1-0)

Last 3 Fights: Roy Nelson (2-1-0)
2012-05-26: W vs. [#48HW+] Dave Herman (21-5-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:51 of round 1
2012-02-04: L vs. [#5HW+] Fabricio Werdum (16-5-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2011-10-29: W vs. [#50HW+] Mirko Filipovic (27-10-2) via TKO (Punches) in 1:30 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Matt Mitrione (2-1-0)
2011-10-29: L vs. [#14HW+] Cheick Kongo (18-7-2) via UD (30-27, 29-27, 29-28)
2011-06-26: W vs. [#141HW+] Christian Morecraft (7-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:28 of round 2
2011-01-22: W vs. [#101HW+] Tim Hague (14-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:59 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Roy Nelson 203, Matt Mitrione 413
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#166LW] Mike Ricci (7-2-0) vs. [#1572] Colton Smith (3-1-0)

Last 3 Fights: Mike Ricci (2-1-0)
2012-03-17: W vs. [#212LW] Tony Hervey (15-13-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2011-10-21: L vs. [#69LW] Daron Cruickshank (12-2-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)
2011-04-09: W vs. [#46LW] Jesse Ronson (12-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:12 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Colton Smith (2-1-0)
2012-02-24: L vs. [#959WW] Steve Montgomery (3-1-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:08 of round 2
2011-10-29: W vs. [NA] Walter Coles (0-1-0) via Submission (Punches) in 1:52 of round 1
2011-03-25: W vs. [#986WW] Brian Nielson (3-2-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:19 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mike Ricci 273, Colton Smith 295
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[#53] Pat Barry (7-5-0) vs. [#73] Shane del Rosario (11-1-0)

Last 3 Fights: Pat Barry (1-2-0)
2012-05-05: L vs. [#35HW+] Lavar Johnson (17-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:38 of round 1
2012-01-20: W vs. [#141HW+] Christian Morecraft (7-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:38 of round 1
2011-10-01: L vs. [#10HW+] Stefan Struve (25-5-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 3:22 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Shane del Rosario (2-1-0)
2012-05-26: L vs. [#24HW+] Stipe Miocic (9-1-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 3:14 of round 2
2011-02-12: W vs. [#35HW+] Lavar Johnson (17-6-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:31 of round 1
2010-07-23: W vs. [#321HW+] Lolohea Mahe (6-2-1) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 3:48 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Pat Barry 224, Shane del Rosario 203
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Shane del Rosario leads 1-0
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Lightweight (155)
[*] George Sotiropoulos (14-4-0) vs. [#30FW] Ross Pearson (13-6-0)

Last 3 Fights: George Sotiropoulos (1-2-0)
2011-07-02: L vs. [#9LW] Rafael dos Anjos (18-6-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:59 of round 1
2011-02-27: L vs. [#3FW] Dennis Siver (21-8-0) via UD (29-28, 30-28, 30-27)
2010-11-20: W vs. [#18LW] Joe Lauzon (22-7-0) via Submission (Kimura) in 2:43 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Ross Pearson (1-2-0)
2012-06-22: L vs. [#7FW] Cub Swanson (18-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:14 of round 2
2011-12-30: W vs. [#44FW] Junior Assuncao (13-5-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-08-27: L vs. [#86LW] Edson Barboza (10-1-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: George Sotiropoulos 531, Ross Pearson 175
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Ross Pearson leads 1-0
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Middleweight (185)
[#9] Hector Lombard (31-3-1) vs. [#25] Rousimar Palhares (14-4-0)
Hector Lombard is the All-Time #20 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Hector Lombard (2-1-0)
2012-07-21: L vs. [#6MW] Tim Boetsch (16-4-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2011-11-19: W vs. [#44HW+] Trevor Prangley (26-9-1) via TKO (Punches) in 1:06 of round 2
2011-09-03: W vs. [#41WW] Jesse Taylor (23-9-0) via Submission (Heel Hook) in 1:26 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Rousimar Palhares (2-1-0)
2012-05-05: L vs. [#7MW] Alan Belcher (18-6-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 4:18 of round 1
2012-01-14: W vs. [#206MW] Mike Massenzio (13-8-0) via Submission (Heel Hook) in 1:03 of round 1
2011-08-27: W vs. [#47WW] Dan Miller (14-6-0) via UD (29-27, 30-27, 30-25)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Hector Lombard 146, Rousimar Palhares 223
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#192] Robert Whittaker (9-2-0) vs. [#284] Brad Scott (8-1-0)

Last 3 Fights: Robert Whittaker (2-1-0)
2012-05-18: L vs. [#92WW] Jesse Juarez (18-8-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 48-47)
2012-03-23: W vs. [#704WW] Shaun Spooner (8-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:01 of round 1
2011-12-09: W vs. [#404WW] Ian Bone (10-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:15 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Brad Scott (3-0-0)
2012-03-16: W vs. [#759WW] Mok Rahman (8-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:45 of round 3
2011-07-23: W vs. [NA] Gareth Williams (4-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:16 of round 1
2010-07-17: W vs. [#817LW] David Round (6-8-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 0:00 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Robert Whittaker 210, Brad Scott 273
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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You may have seen our previous articles of “Odds vs. Ratings” for UFC 152 and 153, that we created post-event.  It basically compared the odds difference to the ratings difference to see what was “closer” to the actual result.  This time, I thought we’d come out with it pre-event.

Either way, this is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds.  Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up such as:

1. System inability to project the exact effects of a divisional change.
2. System inability to project the exact effects of inactivity.
3. Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
4. System inability to project style differences.
5. System inability to factor in bad judging decisions.

But this stuff (especially #4) is pretty much common sense.  We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #4 and #5 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t.

Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money.  So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-3 that I listed above. I’ll leave #4 and #5 to the fully subjective analyses — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

Ratings vs. Odds

1 – Inactivity

So, this ended up to be quite a boring one.  No divisional moves, only one bout of recent inactivity (though I was close to noting it for Swick, even though he has had a fight since his inactive stint).  Not only that, but the betting odds are awfully sound in comparison to the ratings.

The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical, so neither fighter is a good bet.

The Siver, Means, Henderson and Jorgensen bets are marked because the ratings difference agrees with the odds, but to a larger degree.

This leaves four underdogs worth considering:

• Edwards vs. Stephens – This was very nearly a “PASS”, but the 1.27x rating difference suggests Stephens is closer to a -150 favorite, so this one may be worth looking at for a VERY small bet.
• Assuncao vs. Easton – The ratings favor Assuncao, but only slightly.  Although still relatively new to 135, he has had two fairly decent wins.  If he doesn’t look bad on the scales, this one is worth a shot.
• Penn vs. Macdonald – There’s a “gotcha” here — Penn’s inactivity.  Still, with that considered, we find him a good bet.  I won’t argue with Macdonald being a favorite, but nearly -300 is too much.
• Rua vs. Gustafsson – Having the reach advantage is something I did not mention as a “gotcha” only because we don’t actively track this.  As in the Macdonald/Penn fight, Gustaf may have not reached his ceiling.  Still,  this is another case of the ratings disagreeing with the odds to a large extent.

Lightweight Championship (155)
[#1/#7DD] Ben Henderson (17-2-0) vs. [#4] Nate Diaz (16-7-0)
Ben Henderson is the All-Time #11 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Ben Henderson (3-0-0)
2012-08-11: W vs. [#2LW/#10DD] Frankie Edgar (14-3-1) via SD (46-49, 48-47, 48-47)
2012-02-26: W vs. [#2LW/#10DD] Frankie Edgar (14-3-1) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 49-46)
2011-11-12: W vs. [#14LW] Clay Guida (29-13-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Nate Diaz (3-0-0)
2012-05-05: W vs. [#17LW] Jim Miller (21-4-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:09 of round 2
2011-12-30: W vs. [#8LW] Donald Cerrone (19-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2011-09-24: W vs. [#29LW] Takanori Gomi (34-8-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:27 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ben Henderson 119, Nate Diaz 217
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Ben Henderson leads 4-2
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#5] Mauricio Rua (21-6-0) vs. [#9] Alexander Gustafsson (14-1-0)
Mauricio Rua is the All-Time #4 ranked Light Heavyweight and #18 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Mauricio Rua (2-1-0)
2012-08-04: W vs. [#26LHW] Brandon Vera (12-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:09 of round 4
2011-11-19: L vs. [#3LHW] Dan Henderson (29-8-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)
2011-08-27: W vs. [#8LHW] Forrest Griffin (19-7-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:53 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Alexander Gustafsson (3-0-0)
2012-04-14: W vs. [#38LHW] Thiago Silva (14-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2011-12-30: W vs. [#32LHW] Vladimir Matyushenko (26-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:13 of round 1
2011-08-06: W vs. [#20LHW] Matt Hamill (11-4-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 3:41 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mauricio Rua 126, Alexander Gustafsson 238
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#12] B.J. Penn (16-8-2) vs. [#14] Rory MacDonald (13-1-0)
B.J. Penn is the All-Time #14 ranked Welterweight and #6 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: B.J. Penn (1-1-1)
2011-10-29: L vs. [#5WW] Nick Diaz (26-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-27, 29-28)
2011-02-27: D vs. [#11WW] Jon Fitch (24-4-1) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3
2010-11-20: W vs. [*] Matt Hughes (45-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:21 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Rory MacDonald (3-0-0)
2012-04-21: W vs. [#63WW] Che Mills (15-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:20 of round 2
2011-08-06: W vs. [#16WW] Mike Pyle (23-8-1) via TKO (Punches) in 3:54 of round 1
2011-04-30: W vs. [#4LW] Nate Diaz (16-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-26)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: B.J. Penn 406, Rory MacDonald 231
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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