The big story of the week of course is Jon ‘Bones’ Jones taking the UFC light heavyweight title from Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua in a dominating performance.    A few other key matchups from UFC 128 caused ranking fluctuations, as well as several smaller MMA events that took place.

Jones captures the title; Division Dominance shifts

In his first title shot, 23-year old Jon Jones laid an impressive beating on Mauricio Rua, dominating the champion on the feet and on the ground until a TKO stoppage due to a body shot in the third round.  Jones captures the UFC’s light heavyweight title, the #1 ranking at 205, and #6 in the Division Dominance list.  Rua falls 2 spots to #3 LHW, and out of the Division Dominance Top 10, where he was previously ranked at #7.

The shift in the light heavyweight power balance also caused #2 LHW Rashad Evans to lose his #10 ranking in the Division Dominance list.

Notable

At 23, Jon Jones is the youngest UFC champion since the introduction of weight classes.  In the early years, Vitor Belfort won the UFC 12 tournament at the age of 19.

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Watch out tonight for these ranked fighters.

Chaos In The Cage 8

March 25, 2011
Lancaster, California, United States

Lightweight (155 lbs)
[*] Junie Allen Browning (4 – 4 – 0) vs. [*] Juan Lopez (2 – 5 – 0)

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Light Heavyweight
[#15] Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. [#20] Phil Davis

Welterweight
[#19] Dan Hardy vs. [*] Anthony Johnson

Welterweight
[#51] DaMarques Johnson vs. [#65] Amir Sadollah

Featherweight
[#33] Leonard Garcia vs. [#88] Chan Sung Jung

Featherweight
[#54] Mackens Semerzier vs. [#388] Alex Caceres

Heavyweight
[#21] Mike Russow vs. [#40] Jon Madsen

Welterweight
[#31] John Hathaway vs. [#467] Kris McCray

Bantamweight
[#13] Michael McDonald vs. [#45] Edwin Figueora

Heavyweight
[#133] Christian Morecraft vs. [#140] Sean McCorkle

Welterweight
[#43] Johny Hendricks vs. [#61] Anthony Waldburger

Middleweight
[#56] Aaron Simpson vs. [#69] Mario Miranda

Lightweight
[#38] Nik Lentz vs. [#77] Waylon Lowe

On this card there are a few UFC veterans, as well as other rising starts and prospects.

Titan Fighting Championships 17

Friday, March 25th, 2011
Kansas City, Kansas, United States

Heavyweight (265 lbs)
[#161 HW] Bobby Lashley (5 – 1 – 0) vs. [#269 MW] John Ott (8 – 7 – 0)

Former WWE Champion Bobby Lashley was originally scheduled to face James Jack [#243 HW] until the promoter was unable to reach Jack, according to a press release (sherdog). John Ott is the late replacement. Typically competing at 185 or 205, Ott most recently defeated Brian Imes at Bellator 26 on 8/26/10. Lashley has not competed since his first loss, which was to Chad Griggs via TKO(retirement) at Strikeforce-Houston on 8/21/10.

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MMA Canada is rolling out the initial monthly edition of their rankings, which are powered by FightMatrix.   Today, they released the Canada Top 5 Bantamweights, and will release more divisions in the upcoming week.

MMA Canada Bantamweight Rankings

A preliminary ranking of ‘The Ultimate Fighter 13’  contestants. 

There are 14 welterweights this season, with no elimination fights to get into the house, and one second-chance wild card spot.

[#113] Anthony Ferguson

[#179] Myles Jury

[#200] Ryan McGillivray

[#247 LW] Ramsey Nijem

[#321] Charlie Rader

[#364] Shamar Bailey

[#387] Clay Harvison

[#441] Chris Cope

[#475] Len Bentley

[NR] Nordin Asrih

[NR] Michael Bowman

[NR] Keon Caldwell

[NR] Zachary Davis

[NR] Javier Torres

Notable Info (Outside of the Obvious)

• The 19-fight winning streak of Nazareno Malagarie was brought to a halt by Daniel Straus via unanimous decision (29-28 x3).  Straus was favored by the ratings.

I myself am not a professional gambler, but I do like to take a look at the odds of a big/intriguing fight from time-to-time and compare it to the rating system, so here we are again.

BetUS, the online sportsbook offers Jones as a -210 favorite, which means that to win $100, you would actually have to bet $210.  Now, comparing the odds to the perceived chance of winning is not like comparing oranges to oranges (more like oranges to nectarines), but doing so reveals that Jones would be a good bet if you think he has greater than a 67.7% chance of winning.

Jones does appear to have a lot going for him, as he’s younger, taller, rangier, and has never REALLY tasted defeat.  Shogun has experience and one of the best (T)KO finishing rates in the history of MMA (5th all-time with a minimum of 15 wins), but is again coming off yet another knee injury — something that could jeopardize explosiveness and cardiovascular fitness, as we saw in his bout against Griffin.

Under normal circumstances, I would probably take Rua in the upset here, but I think with this latest knee injury, and Jones’s relentless ascent to the top, that at UFC 128, a true star will be born.  Look for a nip/tuck first round possibly going to Rua, then Jones taking over, and eventually stopping Rua late in the 2nd round, or early in the 3rd.  I think Jones is a good bet up to about -240.  This is one of those cases that a higher rank (Rua’s #1 vs. Jones #5) means virtually nothing, as its simply going to be a “changing of the guard” situation.

This kind of dominant win SHOULD see Jones go to #1, Rua drop to #3, with Jones/Evans at #1/2, setting their bout up as a true Champ vs. #1 Contender situation.

UFC Light Heavyweight Championship
[#1] Mauricio Rua vs. [#5] Jon Jones

Bantamweight
[#3] Urijah Faber vs. [#16] Eddie Wineland

Lightweight
[#7] Jim Miller vs. [#54] Kamal Shalrous

Middleweight
[#7] Nate Marquardt vs. [#27] Dan Miller

Heavyweight
[#17] Mirko Filipovic vs. [#18] Brendan Schaub

Light Heavyweight
[#29] Luis Artur Cane vs. [#57] Eliot Marshall

Lightweight
[#102] Edson Barboza vs.  [#170] Anthony Njokuani

Bantamweight
[#2] Joseph Benavidez vs. [#28 FW] Ian Loveland

Featherweight
[#29] Raphael Assuncao vs. [#31] Erik Koch

Light Heavyweight (195lb)
[#80 MW] Costantinos Philippou vs. [#116 MW] Nick Catone

Welterweight
[#15] Mike Pyle vs. [#18] Ricardo Almeida

Lightweight
[#29] Gleison Tibau vs. [#31] Kurt Pellegrino

Several major MMA events took place in the past week: Bellator FC kicked off a new season with the first round of a welterweight tournament, and a new broadcast partner in MTV2.  Strikeforce lightheavyweight and women’s bantamweight titles were put on the line, and UFC checked in with a third installment in the “UFC Live on Versus” series.  I will also briefly cover UFC 127, the results of which were reflected in the previous ranking update.

Controversy on Versus

In the main event of ‘UFC Live 3’, a bloodied and swollen Diego Sanchez had his hand raised in a questionable unanimous decision win over Martin Kampmann.  All three judges scored the bout 29-28 Sanchez, apparently choosing Diego’s relentless aggression over Martin’s effective counter-striking and takedown defense.  Sanchez rises three spots to #9 WW, while Kampmann falls to #10.

In the middleweight division, UFC newcomer Chris Weidman made his debut on two weeks notice and with only 4 MMA bouts under his belt, and performed admirably in his decision win over Alessio Sakara.  Weidman makes a huge jump in the rankings – 101 spots up to #22 MW, while Sakara falls to #30.  In other middleweight bouts, Mark Munoz and Rousimar Palhares enter the Top 20: Munoz with a first-round TKO of C.B. Dollaway, and Palhares with a trademark heel hook submission over David Branch in an untelevised bout.   Dollaway and Branch fall to #44 and #47, respectively.

WEC lightweights Shane Roller and Danny Castillo made a splash in their UFC debut and earned a Top 50 ranking, as Roller knocked out Thiago Tavares and Castillo outworked Joe ‘Daddy’ Stevenson to a unanimous decision.   In both cases, the loser’s spot on the UFC roster may be in jeopardy: this marks the third consecutive loss for the Ultimate Fighter 2 welterweight winner Stevenson, and Tavares has been very inconsistent and plagued by injuries throughout his UFC career; a tough spot to be in for the ultra-competitive lightweight division.

Notable

Nearly a year after losing the WEC bantamweight title to Dominic Cruz in his very first defense, former champion [#4] Brian Bowles returned to action in a rematch with [#64] Damacio Page, putting Page to sleep with a guillotine choke at 3:30 of the first round – an outcome identical to their previous bout, down to the second.  Both fighters’ rankings remain unchanged.

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