A year ago, UFC made some changes to their bonus system: instead of awarding submission and knockout of the night bonuses, they replaced them with ‘Performance of the Night’. Since then, 15 fighters racked up multiple ‘POTN’ awards. Last Saturday at UFC 184, Ronda Rousey became the first fighter to earn her third POTN. To commemorate this achievement, we are adding a new page to our UFC records section. Check it out and check back often, as this list will surely fluctuate a lot – in the two most recent events, four fighters snatched a POTN each, in lieu of a ‘Fight of the Night‘ award.
UFC on FOX 14 / Ratings vs. Odds
This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds. Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.
Before focusing too closely on our ratings vs. odds, please remember, that we take an overall average of the odds presented by roughly a dozen major sites.
With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:
- System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
- System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity.
- Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
- Notable home advantage.
Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money. So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above. In addition to those, there should also be considerations to stylistic differences and the possibility of bad scoring — both of which, will not be considered here.
The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.
Having said all that, let’s get started:
Ratings vs. Odds
| Fight | Odds Favorite | Rating Favorite | I’d bet on | “Gotchas” |
| Beal vs. Seery | Beal (-207 / Moderate) | Beal (1.41x / Small) | PASS | #1 |
| Bektic vs. Redmond | Bektic (-707 / Very Large) | Bektic (1.38x / Small) | Redmond | #1, #3 |
| Erokhin vs. Pesta | Erokhin (-372 / Large) | Erokhin (4.18x / Massive) | Erokhin | |
| Christodoulou vs. Taisumov | Taisumov (-865 / Very Large) | Taisumov (2.40x / Large) | PASS | |
| Krylov vs. Nedkov | Krylov (-126 / Very Small) | Krylov (1.75x / Moderate) | PASS | #1, #2 |
| Amirkhani vs. Ogle | Ogle (-152 / Small) | Ogle (1.00x / EVEN) | Amirkhani | |
| Robertson vs. Aliev | Aliev (-156 / Small) | Robertson (1.11x / Very Small) | PASS | #1 |
| Musoke vs. Tumenov | Tumenov (-134 / Very Small) | Musoke (1.27x / Small) | Musoke | #4 |
| Corassani vs. Sicilia | Corassani (-128 / Very Small) | Corassani (1.85x / Moderate) | Corassani | |
| Davis vs. Bader | Davis (-253 / Moderate) | Davis (1.77x / Moderate) | PASS | |
| Mousasi vs. Henderson | Mousasi (-504 / Very Large) | Henderson (1.80x / Moderate) | Henderson | #1 |
| Gustafsson vs. Johnson | Gustafsson (-284 / Moderate) | Johnson (1.16x / Very Small) | PASS | #4 |
Now, to the results — given the odds above:
The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many relevant gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet.
Favorites to consider: Corassani and Erokhin are the two favorites I’d consider backing here. Erokhin, due to the substantial rating advantage and Corassani mainly due to the hometown advantage.
Underdogs to consider:
- Redmond over Bektic – Bektic is a huge odds favorite and while Redmond is dropping a division, this seems like a reasonable chance to take.
- Amirkhani over Ogle – The ratings are basically even and with Ogle having such a poor stretch, I’d side with the newcomer in this one who is also close to home.
- Musoke over Tumenov – Styles aside, I see no reason to go against Musoke. Rating advantage + Hometown advantage typically equals favorite.
- Henderson over Mousasi – I’ve been known to side with the aging legend when I shouldn’t. In this case, Mousasi to me, is not a -500 favorite. He feels more like a -250 favorite to me, at best. It’s almost as if people are getting Mousasi mixed up with Machida.
Johnson is a really tempting pick. If this event were anywhere else, I would’ve picked him in a second.
Stat of the Day: Multiple UFC Events in the Same Calendar Month
In case you didn’t know, Donald Cerrone is now scheduled to fight again on UFC Fight Night (1/18) after fighting on UFC 182 (1/3).
This will only be the 4th occurrence of this happening:
Mike Thomas Brown | January 2011
(LOSS) – Diego Nunes – UFC 125 [2011-01-01]
(LOSS) – Rani Yahya – UFC – Fight for the Troops 2 [2011-01-22]
Lavar Johnson | May 2012
(WIN) – Pat Barry – UFC on Fox 3 [2012-05-05]
(LOSS) – Stefan Struve – UFC 146 [2012-05-26]
Dustin Pague | June 2012
(WIN) – Jared Papazian – UFC on FX 3 [2012-06-08]
(LOSS) – Ken Stone – UFC on FX 4 [2012-06-22]
The Rise and Fall of Tim Sylvia
With the news that Tim Sylvia was unable to fight this weekend, because he failed his medicals — weighing in at 371 pounds probably didn’t help matters — I decided to use our Generated Historical Rankings to show the rise and fall of Tim Sylvia using his rank in the Heavyweight division through time.
The format of the horizontal series labels is Year – Fights – Age, as of the first and midpoint of the year (no contests excluded). The major gridlines represent the first and midpoints of the year.
UFC 182: Stat of the Day
The match-up between Jon Jones and Daniel Cormier is the first UFC title fight where the fighters have 35 or more combined wins with only 1 or fewer combined losses.
When throwing in non-title fights, this has only occurred once, when Brock Larson (21-1) faced Keita Nakamura (15-0) back in 2006.
2014 Awards: Men’s Fighters of the Year
As a recap, most “Fighter of the Year” awards on other sites are really “Breakout Fighter of the Year” awards in that fighters who win, were usually not top fighters in the beginning of the year, but became so by the end of the year.
A fighter like this can and has won our FotY awards, but our award is more about maintaining a high standing during the award year by performing well a sufficient number of times and against sufficient quality of opponents. It is more comparable to a season MVP, not a playoffs/surprise MVP.
Winner: Jose Aldo
It was a quiet year for elite fighters, but Aldo held steady, again, defending his UFC title twice in the same year. As low as twice sounds, try finding better in 2014.
Runner-Up: Demetrious Johnson
After winning the award in 2013, Aldo edges him out for 2014. Like Aldo, he defended his UFC title twice but against lesser competition.
3rd Place: Robbie Lawler
Surely the pick for FotY from a “breakthrough” perspective, Lawler finally made it to the top of the Welterweight mountain just before the year ended. After going 3-1 in 2014, it will be interesting to see if Lawler can stay at the top of the heap.
2014 Awards: Women’s Fighters of the Year
As a recap, most “Fighter of the Year” awards on other sites are really “Breakout Fighter of the Year” awards in that fighters who win, were usually not top fighters in the beginning of the year, but became so by the end of the year.
A fighter like this can and has won our FotY awards, but our award is more about maintaining a high standing during the award year by performing well a sufficient number of times and against sufficient quality of opponents. It is more comparable to a season MVP, not a playoffs/surprise MVP.
Winner: Ronda Rousey
This is the 3rd straight win for Rousey, who maintains “status quo” as the best female fighter in the sport. She again, remained #1 all year, beating two quality opponents within the first round to further cement her dominance within the sport.
Runner-Up: Jessica Aguilar
Those dubbing Carla Esparza as the top Strawweight, may have forgotten about Aguilar. In 2014, she defended her lesser regarded WSOF championship three times against respectable, but not elite competition. She has not lost a fight in over 4 years.
3rd Place: Herica Tiburcio
In her first fight away from Brazil, she found success in her first fight at 105,which is probably the best weight class for her. She throttled the “Karate Hottie” in 2014 to gain the only 105lb title belt that really matters. Her options in this division are limited, with a rematch against Waterson and a fight against Hamasaki as the only two fights that make sense unless a ranked Strawweight drops down.
2014 Awards: Rookies of the Year
Men: Chris de la Rocha
Ending his year with a win over the respectable DJ Linderman, the Heavyweight from the northwest is 3-0 heading into 2015 with a ranking well inside of the Top 100 in the Heavyweight division.
Honorable Mentions: Alvaro Correa, Zelimkhan Umiev, Chris Padilla
Women: Jessica Miele
Getting into the Top 5 at 3-1 speaks partially for her triumphs and partially for being in what is likely the weakest division in the entire sport. Nevertheless, her latest two wins were over a previously 5-0 fighter that was once ranked in the Top 15. Our honorable mentions may be the fighters to watch moving forward as they have undefeated records in a division that the UFC observes, but I would not be surprised to see Miele on a major card (Invicta) before Santos and Moroz.
Honorable Mentions: Marilia Santos, Maryna Moroz
2014 Awards: Most Improved Fighter
Most Improved Fighter of the Year: Tom Gallicchio
Tom Gallicchio went 1-3 in 2011, took off 2012 entirely, and had something of a tune-up bout in 2013 — which left him toward the bottom of the Welterweight division. Whether it was improvement, or finding his optimal weight class, he has since moved to Lightweight and reeled off two wins over Kurt Southern in 2014. This boosted Gallicchio well into the Top 100.
Honorable Mention: Bubba Jenkins
2014 Awards: Upsets of the Year
Note: We have two ways that we derive biggest “upsets” based on points difference between winner and loser.
“Most Noteworthy” (X minus Y)
“Most Lopsided” (X divided by Y)
Most Noteworthy: Andrei Arlovski KO(1) Antonio Silva
Arlovski turned back the clock in an unbelievably unexpected win against Silva. I’m not sure Arlovski himself saw this one coming.
Honorable Mentions: Anthony Johnson UD(3) Phil Davis, Ben Rothwell TKO(1) Alistair Overeem
Most Lopsided: T.J Dillashaw TKO(5) Renan Barao
When you’re roughly a 9.5-to-1 favorite as Barao was, you’re just expected to go out there and take care of business. Well, that didn’t happen and hopefully the sequel is on tap for early-mid 2015 as Cruz has again proven to be weak in the knees.
Honorable Mentions: Andrei Arlovski KO(1) Antonio Silva, Ben Rothwell TKO(1) Alistair Overeem
2014 Awards: Most Noteworthy Match of the Year
Most Noteworthy Match of the Year: Chris Weidman vs. Lyoto Machida
Weidman is on the winning side of the equation for two years straight. There’s not much to say here. This award is about combined relevance and this was a UFC Title Match featuring the undefeated champion and one of the best fighters in history.
Honorable Mentions: Jose Aldo vs. Chad Mendes, Jose Aldo vs. Ricardo Lamas
2014 Awards: Comeback Fighter of the Year
As a refresher, our “Comeback” award is about coming back from inactivity or major injury (that we know about) and in doing so, really impressing. You can see more details at the bottom of the post about specific qualifiers.
Comeback Fighter of the Year: Tito Ortiz
The award was wrapped and already assigned to Dominick Cruz, but it just doesn’t feel right giving him the award, as he once again tore his ACL. This is something of a disqualification as he is on the shelf again.
So, with a dominant win over the undersized, though huge favorite Alexander Shlemenko and a decision win over Stephan Bonnar, Tito Ortiz wins the award on a technicality.
Honorable Mention: Thiago Alves
To qualify, fighters must be in an active status at the end of the award year and did not have a fight in the previous calendar year or are coming off of a known major injury that caused an inactive period of 15+ months.
Stat of the Day: Weak Champions
When we exclude Flyweight (a division that the UFC only semi-recently adopted), we are at a period now where the rating of a #2 fighter is equal to or greater than 85% of the rating of the #1 fighter in 3 men’s divisions since Fight Matrix came online. We saw this briefly for a 1-week period back in July 2010, but we are currently in the midst of a period that has essentially lasted since mid-June 2014, excluding a short break from mid-August to mid-September where we had some shuffling.
- Welterweight: [#2] Rory MacDonald’s rating is 94.8% of [#1] Johny Hendricks’s
- Lightweight: [#2] Rafael dos Anjos’s rating is 86.5% of [#1] Anthony Pettis’s
- Bantamweight: [#2] Renan Barao’s rating is 86.5% of [#1] T.J. Dillashaw’s
Depending on the outcome, or non-outcome (another Aldo injury) of Aldo/Mendes, the Edgar/Swanson winner could increase this count to 4. Either way, the 3 above will probably hold in the list for quite a bit.
The real question is… is this good, or bad?
Gleison Tibau’s unlikely UFC career
Last weekend, in the co-main event of the UFC Fight Night 51 in Brazil, lightweight competitor Gleison Tibau scored a split decision victory over [#41] Piotr Hallman. This was not a highly anticipated or hyped fight; a contest between two middle-of-the-road lightweights both ranked outside of Top 25 in their division (the win propelled Tibau from #27 up to #22, while Hallman’s ranking was not affected). What was most notable about this fight is that it marked Tibau’s 23rd UFC bout, and his 15th win in the Octagon. This puts Tibau in a tie for the fourth place for both most wins and most bouts in the UFC history.
To put things in perspective, the record for most wins in UFC is currently held by Georges St. Pierre (19), followed by Matt Hughes (18). The third place is shared by Anderson Silva, Chuck Liddell, and Randy Couture, all with 16 wins a piece. Gleison is tied for #4 with Tito Ortiz, Josh Koscheck, and Michael Bisping. In the most bouts category, Tito Ortiz (27) holds the lead, followed by Matt Hughes (25) and Randy Couture (24). Tibau shares the fourth place with Chuck Liddell, BJ Penn, Frank Mir, and Josh Koscheck.
Take another look at these names. All except for Koscheck, Bisping, and Tibau are former UFC champions and legends of the sport. In fact, they have a combined record of 61-26-1 in UFC title fights! Even Josh Koscheck has had a shot at UFC gold, and Michael Bisping had several “top contender” bouts, though he fell short each time. Tibau on the other hand has never had a title shot or even a #1 contender bout. He was never ranked in the Top 10 of any weight class, coming closest at #12 after his 3-fight win streak in 2011. I certainly would have never expected the kid who got plastered by Nick Diaz in his UFC debut (as a welterweight), to ever be mentioned in the same sentence with the all-time greats, in any context.
What’s more is that at 31, Gleison is not showing any signs of slowing down. After dropping down to lightweight in his second UFC bout, he has been steadily chugging along for eight years, fighting on average 2.75 times a year, and winning around 68% of these fights – or 1.875 fights a year. If he continues at this rate for another two years, by the end of 2016 he should be tied for the top spot in both the total number of UFC fights and total wins, or may even hold the record in both categories. The only active fighters who may give him a run for the total number of fights are Frank Mir and Josh Koscheck – both on extended losing streaks and the verge of retirement. In the wins column, there is Michael Bisping – but at 35 he too is four years older than Tibau, and is likely past his peak judging by his recent fights. There is a very real possibility that Tibau may soon hold both records. He is also at #7 for the most total fight time in the UFC. The only currently active fighters on the roster with more minutes clocked in the Octagon are Frankie Edgar and Diego Sanchez.
MMA Current Rated Division Population (Updated)
| Division | Recorded | Estimated | Estimated Diff from 12/11 |
Percent of Total |
Percent in 12/11 |
Net Proportional Change from 12/11 |
| Heavyweight | 623 | 825 | -50 | 6.9% | 8.3% | -16.9% |
| Light Heavyweight | 607 | 805 | -120 | 6.7% | 8.8% | -23.3% |
| Middleweight | 1151 | 1525 | -25 | 12.7% | 14.7% | -13.2% |
| Welterweight | 1653 | 2190 | +40 | 18.3% | 20.4% | -10.1% |
| Lightweight | 1826 | 2415 | +115 | 20.2% | 21.8% | -7.4% |
| Featherweight | 1577 | 2085 | +565 | 17.4% | 14.4% | +21.0% |
| Bantamweight | 1030 | 1365 | +415 | 11.4% | 9.0% | +26.7% |
| Fly+Straw | 578 | 765 | +475 | 6.4% | 2.7% | +132.6% |
– Male Only
Since the last post approximately 2.5 years ago, the “estimated” count of all active fighters over the “starter” rating has increased from 10,560 to 11,975 (+13.4%). Remember, these counts are ignoring active fighters of the “bottom feeder” variety — i.e. fighters who haven’t proven themselves to be any better than the average debuting fighter.
Divisionally, there are massive changes from 2.5 years ago. The net proportional change looks at the difference in the division pool, after taking into account that the overall size of the fighter pool increased as shown in the previous statement. Although Lightweight added 115 fighters, the increase in overall fighter pool suggests the division is still not as deep as it was in comparison to the entire sport.
Also in December 2011, I deduced that the average fighter weighed in at about 169 pounds. Now, it seems to be about 163 pounds.