Fight Matrix

UFC 152 / Odds vs. Ratings

Posted on September 23, 2012 by Jason

If you’ve been following recent updates, most notably those associated with the Upcoming Events page, you already know that we now display a meta-odds feature — average odds from about a dozen sports books.

I thought it would be interesting to compare results of UFC 152 and how we stacked up versus the gamblers. This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds. Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary rating that is primarily focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation. Either way, both systems have their place in determining who to expect to win the fight.

Before going in to that, a side note. I performed a simple study for recent notable fights and determined that due to the unpredictability of MMA, a favorite should rarely, if ever, exceed -1000 (a bet of $1,000 would profit you $100). Something to think about before you place that next bet on a fight like Silva/Bonnar.

Another side note: A part of the advantage of the rating system (like gambling, too) is that a rating difference can not only help determine an expected winner, but the margin of victory as well. With this in mind, I’m going to be very “black and white” in determining who got it more correct. Feel free to comment on this post and give your thoughts.

Ratings vs. Gamblers Scoreboard

Fight	Odds Favorite	Rating Favorite	“Who won”
Jones vs. Belfort	Jones (-856 / Massive)	Jones (3.59x^ / Massive)	Tie
Johnson vs. Benavidez	Benavidez (-261 / Moderate)	Benavidez (1.2x / Very Small)	Ratings
Bisping vs. Stann	Bisping (-198 / Small)	Stann (1.07x / Pick’Em)	Gamblers
Hamill vs. Hollett	Hamill (-357 / Large)	Hamill (1.59x / Moderate)	Tie
Swanson vs. Oliveira	Oliveira (-247 / Moderate)	Swanson (1.09x / Pick ‘Em)	Ratings
Magalhaes vs. Pokrajac	Pokrajac (-158 / Small)	Pokrajac (1.22x / Small)	Tie
Grant vs. Dunham	Dunham (-137 / Pick’Em)	Grant (1.26x / Small)	Ratings
Pierson vs. Benoist	Benoist (-217 / Small)	Pierson (1.3x / Small)	Ratings
Brimage vs. Hettes	Hettes (-446 / Large)	Hettes (1.07x / Pick ‘Em)	Ratings
Gagnon vs. Watson	Watson (-188 / Small)	Gagnon (1.22x / Small)	Ratings
Noke vs. Brenneman	Brenneman (-224 / Moderate)	Brenneman (1.95x^ / Large)	Gamblers

^ – Division move was not factored into rating difference.

Current MMA Rankings Updated

Posted on September 23, 2012 by Jason

Featured Upcoming Bouts (Outside of UFC)

Friday, October 16th 2026: Professional Fighters League PFL Chicago 2: Carmouche vs. Bishop 2

[#6 W125] Liz Carmouche

[#14 W125] Jena Bishop

Last Fight Date: 6/27/2026 [PFL]
Last Opponent: [#15 W125] Viviane Araujo
Last 5: L W W W W

Last Fight Date: 6/27/2026 [PFL]
Last Opponent: [#37 W125] Ariane Lipski da Silva
Last 5: W W L W W

Thursday, December 31st 2026: Rizin FF New Years Eve Event

[#5 FW] Rajabali Shaidullaev

[#16 FW] Kyoma Akimoto

Last Fight Date: 9/10/2026 [Rizin Fighting Federation]
Last Opponent: [#7 FW] A.J. McKee
Last 5: W W W W W

Last Fight Date: 8/11/2026 [Rizin Fighting Federation]
Last Opponent: [#25 FW] Kleber Koike Erbst
Last 5: W W W W W

Saturday, November 14th 2026: Professional Fighters League PFL Returns to Dubai: Nemkov vs. Bilostenniy

[#6 HW] Vadim Nemkov

[#16 HW] Sergey Bilostenniy

Last Fight Date: 12/13/2025 [PFL]
Last Opponent: [#20 HW] Renan Ferreira
Last 5: W W W W W

Last Fight Date: 5/02/2026 [PFL]
Last Opponent: [#20 HW] Renan Ferreira
Last 5: W W L W W

Featured Fighters

[#49 LW]	Mikuru Asakura	[#5 FW]	Rajabali Shaidullaev
[#1 WW]	Islam Makhachev	[#1 FW]	Alexander Volkanovski
[#29 FW]	Ren Hiramoto	[#33 LW]	Akbar Abdullaev
[#96 FW]	Tommy McMillen	[#1 FLW]	Joshua Van
[#4 LW]	Arman Tsarukyan	[#4 FW]	Movsar Evloev

Page Enhancements – Upcoming Events

Posted on September 19, 2012 by Jason

We have further enhanced the Upcoming Events page by:

Displaying gambling odds for fights. The reported odds are an average of around a dozen gambling websites and are displayed on the detail pages next to the fighter names.
Event icons that indicate special conditions. Currently, we have one icon available — to signify when a former UFC veteran is fighting on a non-UFC card. We will continue to add more icons in the coming days/weeks. The next two we are working on will indicate if there are odds available and if a ranked woman is fighting on the card.

UFC Middleweight Division, Revisited

Posted on September 18, 2012 by Oleg

A couple of months ago, I looked at the state of the UFC & StrikeForce middleweight divisions, and proposed a few potential match-ups that made sense at the time. Since then, the climate at 185 lbs has changed quite a bit. The injury bug has been running rampant through UFC, and no weight class has been affected as hard as light-heavyweights. Fortunately, several middleweights were willing to move up a weight class on short notice. With three of the middleweight Top 5 – including the #1 and champion Anderson Silva – scheduled to take their next fight at 205 lbs, this creates an interesting power vacuum at the top of 185. And what better way to fill a vacuum in MMA than a good old-fashioned eight man tournament?

In recent history, UFC has stayed away from the tournament format, using it only on the rare occasion when a title is vacant or disputed, and capping the number of participants at four. Even with those limitations, things seem to go wrong quite often, as was the case with the scoring snafu in the flyweight opening round matchup between Ian McCall and Demetrious Johnson. So, Zuffa’s reluctance to do tournaments is understandable. However, the best thing about the tourney I am proposing is that all the first-round match-ups are already scheduled, and we even have several viable alternate bouts, in case of inevitable injuries. They don’t even have to call it a tournament, but the following four bouts all have strong divisional implications, and having the winners face each other tourney-style would result in a perfect contender for Anderson Silva, whenever he decides he’s had his share of super-fights and comes back to defend his crown. Or, if Silva retires or decides to permanently move up to 205, this series of bouts could crown a new champion:

UFC 152 (September 22)
[#14] Brian Stann vs [#15] Michael Bisping

UFC on Fuel TV 6 (November 10th)
[#10] Rich Franklin vs [#45] Cung Le

UFC 155 (December 29)
[#3] Chris Weidman vs [#6] Tim Boetsch
[#8] Alan Belcher vs [#16] Yushin Okami

And the alternate bouts:

Keep Reading

Gambling Analysis: UFC 152

Posted on September 16, 2012 by Jason

With UFC 152 inching closer day-by-day, it’s time for another chapter in the “Gambling Analysis” series.

In some ways, it is good that UFC 151 was canceled as it certainly boosts the PPV legitimacy of the UFC 152 card. With Jones taking on Belfort, who shouldn’t even be getting a whiff of a Light Heavyweight Championship, the co-main event is the fight that I’m expecting to deliver the most. As such, that’s the fight we’ll be looking at. In this fight, we have Joseph Benavidez, one of the best Bantamweights in history, taking on Demetrious Johnson, for the inaugural UFC Flyweight Championship. As of the time of writing, UFC 152 betting on Top Bet features Benavidez as a -290 favorite.

Although the point difference between the two fighters isn’t that large within the FightMatrix ranking system, I always like what I see with Benavidez. My feeling is that he does just about everything a little better than Johnson and holds physical advantages that will be key in this fight. I’m predicting he will come out even stronger for his second fight in the Flyweight division and take out ‘Mighty Mouse’ in the third round.

For a reference, here are the details for our past “gambling analysis” article picks:

UFC 128 – Jon Jones vs Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua: Jones @ -210
- Predicted Outcome: TKO (Rd 2/3) | Actual: TKO (Rd 3)
UFC 129 – Georges St. Pierre vs Jake Shields: St. Pierre @ -450
- Predicted Outcome: Wide Unanimous Decision | Actual: Unanimous Decision
UFC 129 – Lyoto Machida vs Randy Couture: Machida @ -350
- No Outcome Predicted
UFC 130 – Frank Mir vs Roy Nelson: Mir @ -125
- Predicted Outcome: Split Decision | Actual: Unanimous Decision
StrikeForce – Chad Griggs vs Valentijn Overeem: Griggs @ -110
- Predicted Outcome: TKO | Actual: TKO
StrikeForce – Justin Wilcox vs Gesias Calvancante: Wilcox @ +130
- No Contest
UFC on FX – Jim Miller vs Melvin Guillard: Miller @ -213
- Predicted Outcome: Submission (Rd 2) | Actual: Submission (Rd 1)
UFC on Fuel TV – Stefan Struve vs Dave Herman: Herman @ -140
- Predicted Outcome: KO/TKO (Rd 1) | Actual: TKO (Rd 2)
UFC on Fuel TV 2 – Alexander Gustaffson vs Thiago Silva: Gustaffson @ -225
- No Outcome Predicted
Strikeforce GP Final – Daniel Cormier vs. Josh Barnett: Cormier @ -105
- Predicted Outcome: KO/TKO (Rd 3) | Actual: Unanimous Decision
PENDING: UFC 152 – Joseph Benavidez vs. Demetrious Johnson: Benavidez @ -290
- Predicted Outcome: TKO (Rd 3)

If you had bet $100 on each one of the winners at the odds listed above, you would have made a profit of: $355.95. The listed odds are either approximations, or provided by our sponsors, so with a little work on your part, you could increase this total a bit as we don’t go out of our way to find the absolute best odds. Furthermore, if you heeded our advice on going “big” for certain match-ups (Machida/Couture), you’d likely have even more profit. We’re also doing pretty good on the specific outcome plays, but availability of these are not as prominent as they are in boxing betting, so we don’t include these as official bets.

Keep in mind that the above is for “entertainment purposes only”.

Current MMA Rankings Updated

Posted on September 16, 2012 by Jason

FightMatrix Program: UFC 152 (9-22-2012)

Posted on September 16, 2012 by Jason

Light Heavyweight Championship (205)
[#1/#2DD] Jon Jones (16-1-0) vs. [#5MW] Vitor Belfort (21-9-0)
Jon Jones is the All-Time #9 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.
Vitor Belfort is the All-Time #14 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jon Jones (3-0-0)
2012-04-21: W vs. [#4LHW] Rashad Evans (22-2-1) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)
2011-12-10: W vs. [#3LHW] Lyoto Machida (18-3-0) via Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:26 of round 2
2011-09-24: W vs. [#7LHW] Quinton Jackson (32-10-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:14 of round 4

Last 3 Fights: Vitor Belfort (2-1-0)
2012-01-14: W vs. [#19LHW] Anthony Johnson (12-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:49 of round 1
2011-08-06: W vs. [#153WW] Yoshihiro Akiyama (13-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:52 of round 1
2011-02-05: L vs. [#1MW/#1DD] Anderson Silva (32-4-0) via KO (Front Kick and Punches) in 3:25 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jon Jones 154, Vitor Belfort 252
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Flyweight Championship (125)
[#1/#10DD] Joseph Benavidez (16-2-0) vs. [#2] Demetrious Johnson (15-2-1)

Last 3 Fights: Joseph Benavidez (3-0-0)
2012-03-03: W vs. [#9FLY] Yasuhiro Urushitani (19-5-6) via TKO (Punches) in 0:11 of round 2
2011-08-14: W vs. [#9BW] Eddie Wineland (19-8-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2011-03-19: W vs. [#18BW] Ian Loveland (16-9-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Demetrious Johnson (1-1-1)
2012-06-08: W vs. [#4FLY] Ian McCall (11-3-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-03-03: D vs. [#4FLY] Ian McCall (11-3-1) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3
2011-10-01: L vs. [#1BW/#9DD] Dominick Cruz (19-1-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Joseph Benavidez 203, Demetrious Johnson 106
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#14] Brian Stann (12-4-0) vs. [#15] Michael Bisping (22-4-0)
Michael Bisping is the All-Time #20 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Brian Stann (2-1-0)
2012-04-14: W vs. [#58MW] Alessio Sakara (15-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:26 of round 1
2011-10-08: L vs. [#2MW] Chael Sonnen (27-12-1) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:51 of round 2
2011-05-28: W vs. [#24MW] Jorge Santiago (25-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:29 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Michael Bisping (2-1-0)
2012-01-28: L vs. [#2MW] Chael Sonnen (27-12-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-12-03: W vs. [#94MW] Jason Miller (23-9-0) via TKO (Knees to the Body and Punches) in 3:34 of round 3
2011-02-27: W vs. [*] Jorge Rivera (20-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:54 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brian Stann 161, Michael Bisping 238
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.
Keep Reading

Site Enhancement: More Frequent Stat/Upcoming Event Updates

Posted on September 13, 2012 by Jason

There’s no “set” schedule for this, but the following pages will now be updated on a daily basis — on average. It could happen twice a day, or every other day… but much more than it has been, which was only once per week.

Upcoming Events
MMA Records & Statistics (Partial)

We are definitely looking for recommendations on the “Upcoming Events” page. If you have any, please feel free to leave comments.

By the way… Does anyone know the best site to get betting odds for obscure events? “The Voice” seems to have odds for the most insignificant fights for HDNet cards. We may consider adding this as a new data point.

Rumor: Chael Sonnen vs. Wanderlei Silva (195lb) at UFC 153: Your thoughts?

Posted on September 12, 2012 by Jason

[poll id=”15″]

Stat of the Day: Average height at each weight division

Posted on September 11, 2012 by Jason

A simple, yet interesting statistic for the readers today.

We’ve started compiling “listed heights” from Sherdog. Below, is a table which contains the average LISTED height per division for ranked male fighters and also the average listed height for the Top 50 in each division, as well as the difference. We don’t have every height just yet, but do have a fairly large data set to go on. Also, just added, the tallest ranked fighter in each division..

Division	Height	Top 50	Diff	Tallest/Shortest
Heavyweight+	6’1.9″	6’2.8″	+0.9″	6’11.5″ – [#12] Stefan Struve 5’9″ – 6 Tied (Monson, Komkin, Brents, Inoue, Leniu, O. Sanchez)
Light Heavyweight	6’1.0″	6’1.5″	+0.5″	6’7″ – [#220] Malik Merad 5’11” – [#72] John Howard
Middleweight	6’0.0″	6’0.6″	+0.6″	6’6″ – [#35] Kendall Grove, [#248] Luke Barnatt 5’7″ – [#206] Terry Martin, [#353] Antonio Graceffo
Welterweight	5’10.7″	5’10.9″	+0.2″	6’4″ – 4 Tied (Beecroft, T. Dixon, C. Hill, B. Scott) 5’5″ – 3 Tied (Saadulaev, Crane, Chlewicki)
Lightweight	5’9.4″	5’9.3″	-0.1″	6’3″ – [#197] Jose Figueora 5’5″ – [#110] Jared Downing
Featherweight	5’8.2″	5’7.8″	-0.4″	6’4″ – [#210] Will Chope 5’3″ – 3 Tied (Quach, Reis, Y. Nakamura)
Bantamweight	5’6.73″	5’6.66″	-0.06″	6’1″ – [#231] Daniel Aguirre 5’1″ – [#133] Nate Williams
Flyweight	5’5.1″	5’5.0″	-0.1″	5’9″ – 4 Tied (Calatayud, Campuzano, Sato, C. Wright) 5’2″ – [#13] Kiyotaka Shimizu, [#18] Rambaa Somdet

It’s interesting that top fighters have, on average, a height advantage in the heavier divisions, but a disadvantage in the lower divisions. Is this due to the increased east Asian influence on the lower divisions and/or that overall size can be a disadvantage in the lower divisions? We’ve also asked online casino and sports betting experts at OnlineCasino65.sg to comment on the stat, and here’s what they had to say: “Sports bettors will find these trends of immense importance. Understanding these can help predict match outcomes by analyzing a fighter’s height in relation to their division’s typical success profiles. It could offer a noticeable edge in placing informed bets. When you choose a trusted online casino Singapore, you ensure that placing bets is as safe as possible.”

Read more: The coolest custom boxing gift

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