Light Heavyweight (205)
[#8] Mauricio Rua (21-7-0, +120) vs. [#15] Chael Sonnen (27-13-1, -125)
Mauricio Rua is the All-Time #6 ranked Light Heavyweight and #18 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Mauricio Rua (1-2-0)
2012-12-08: L vs. [#6LHW] Alexander Gustafsson (15-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
2012-08-04: W vs. [#36LHW] Brandon Vera (12-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:09 of round 4
2011-11-19: L vs. [#5LHW] Dan Henderson (29-10-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Chael Sonnen (1-2-0)
2013-04-27: L vs. [#1LHW/#4DD] Jon Jones (18-1-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 4:33 of round 1
2012-07-07: L vs. [#2MW/#8DD] Anderson Silva (33-5-0) via TKO (Knee to the Body and Punches) in 1:55 of round 2
2012-01-28: W vs. [#8MW] Michael Bisping (24-5-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mauricio Rua 252, Chael Sonnen 112
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Mauricio Rua leads 2-0
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Heavyweight (265)
[#6] Alistair Overeem (36-12-0, -200) vs. [#11] Travis Browne (14-1-1, +190)
Alistair Overeem is the All-Time #13 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Alistair Overeem (2-1-0)
2013-02-02: L vs. [#4HW+] Antonio Silva (18-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:25 of round 3
2011-12-30: W vs. [*] Brock Lesnar (5-3-0) via TKO (Kick to the Body and Punches) in 2:26 of round 1
2011-06-18: W vs. [#5HW+] Fabricio Werdum (17-5-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Travis Browne (2-1-0)
2013-04-13: W vs. [#18HW+] Gabriel Gonzaga (15-7-0) via KO (Elbows) in 1:11 of round 1
2012-10-05: L vs. [#4HW+] Antonio Silva (18-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:27 of round 1
2012-04-21: W vs. [#137LHW] Chad Griggs (11-3-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 2:29 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alistair Overeem 196, Travis Browne 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Bantamweight (135)
[#2] Urijah Faber (28-6-0, -244) vs. [#10] Iuri Alcantara (28-4-0, +230)
Urijah Faber is the All-Time #6 ranked Bantamweight and #10 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Urijah Faber (2-1-0)
2013-04-13: W vs. [#31BW] Scott Jorgensen (14-7-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:16 of round 4
2013-02-23: W vs. [#62BW] Ivan Menjivar (25-10-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:34 of round 1
2012-07-21: L vs. [#1BW] Renan Barao (30-1-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Iuri Alcantara (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2013-05-18: W vs. [#33FLY] Iliarde Santos (27-8-1) via KO (Punches) in 2:31 of round 1
2013-01-19: NC vs. [#19FLY] Pedro Nobre (15-1-2) via NC (Accidental Foul) in 2:11 of round 1
2012-06-23: L vs. [#28FW] Hacran Dias (21-2-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Urijah Faber 126, Iuri Alcantara 91
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds.  Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:

1. System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
2. System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity or short-notice.
3. Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
4. Notable home advantage.
5. System inability to project style differences.
6. System inability to factor in bad judging or overturned decisions.

But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense.  We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t.  For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant.  Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.

Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money.  So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above.  I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.

The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

Ratings vs. Odds

Featherweight Championship (145)
[#1/#4DD] Jose Aldo (22-1-0, -645) vs. [#16] Chan Sung Jung (13-3-0, +530)
Jose Aldo is the All-Time #1 ranked Featherweight and #11 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jose Aldo (3-0-0)
2013-02-02: W vs. [#2FW] Frankie Edgar (16-4-1) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
2012-01-14: W vs. [#6FW] Chad Mendes (14-1-0) via KO (Knee) in 4:59 of round 1
2011-10-08: W vs. [*] Kenny Florian (14-6-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Chan Sung Jung (3-0-0)
2012-05-15: W vs. [#30FW] Dustin Poirier (13-3-0) via Technical Submission (Brabo Choke) in 1:07 of round 4
2011-12-10: W vs. [*] Mark Hominick (20-12-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:07 of round 1
2011-03-26: W vs. [#98FW] Leonard Garcia (16-11-1) via Submission (Twister) in 4:59 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jose Aldo 182, Chan Sung Jung 445
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#2] Lyoto Machida (19-3-0, -340) vs. [#15] Phil Davis (11-1-0, +306)
Lyoto Machida is the All-Time #7 ranked Light Heavyweight and #16 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Lyoto Machida (2-1-0)
2013-02-23: W vs. [#4LHW] Dan Henderson (29-10-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-08-04: W vs. [#9LHW] Ryan Bader (15-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:32 of round 2
2011-12-10: L vs. [#1LHW/#3DD] Jon Jones (18-1-0) via Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:26 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Phil Davis (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2013-04-27: W vs. [#32LHW] Vinny Magalhaes (10-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2012-10-13: W vs. [#233LHW] Wagner Prado (8-2-0) via Submission (Anaconda Choke) in 4:29 of round 2
2012-08-04: NC vs. [#233LHW] Wagner Prado (8-2-0) via NC (Accidental Eye Poke) in 1:28 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Lyoto Machida 161, Phil Davis 98
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Lyoto Machida leads 1-0
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Middleweight (185)
[#265] Cezar Ferreira (5-2-0, -412) vs. [#800WW] Thiago Santos (8-1-0, +328)

Last 3 Fights: Cezar Ferreira (2-1-0)
2012-06-23: W vs. [#436WW] Sergio Moraes (7-2-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2011-08-20: L vs. [#38MW] Elvis Mutapcic (13-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:25 of round 1
2011-04-16: W vs. [*] Chaun Sims (5-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:17 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Thiago Santos (2-1-0)
2012-07-27: W vs. [NA] Denis Figueira da Silva (1-4-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in ? of round 1
2012-04-28: L vs. [#399MW] Vicente Luque (6-4-1) via TKO (Punches) in ? of round 1
2012-03-03: W vs. [#1237WW] Junior Vidal (3-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in ? of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cezar Ferreira 406, Thiago Santos 372
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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