UFC on FOX 8: Ratings vs. Odds (07-27-2013)
This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds. Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.
With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:
- System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
- System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity or short-notice.
- Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
- Notable home advantage.
- System inability to project style differences.
- System inability to factor in bad judging or overturned decisions.
But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense. We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t. For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant. Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.
Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money. So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above. I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.
The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.
Having said all that, let’s get started:
Ratings vs. Odds
| Fight | Odds Favorite | Rating Favorite | I’d bet on | “Gotchas” |
| Albert vs. Meza | Albert (-230 / Moderate) | Meza (2.30x / Large) | PASS | #1 |
| Riley vs. Salas | Salas (-220 / Moderate) | Salas (3.44x / Very Large) | PASS | #2 |
| Herman vs. Smith | Herman (-235 / Moderate) | Herman (2.04x / Large) | Herman | |
| Kedzie vs. de Randamie | de Randamie (-108 / Pick ‘Em) | de Randamie (1.45x / Moderate) | PASS | #1 |
| Edwards vs. Cruickshank | Cruickshank (-125 / Very Small) | Edwards (1.77x / Moderate) | Edwards | |
| Guillard vs. Danzig | Guillard (-115 / Pick ‘Em) | Guillard (1.21x / Very Small) | PASS | |
| Castillo vs. Means | Castillo (-205 / Moderate) | Castillo (1.26x / Small) | Means | |
| Masvidal vs. Chiesa | Masvidal (-270 / Moderate) | Masvidal (2.43x / Large) | PASS | #3 |
| Carmouche vs. Andrade | Carmouche (-525 / Very Large) | Carmouche (1.15x / Very Small) | PASS | #3, #4 |
| Lawler vs. Voelker | Lawler (-260 / Moderate) | Lawler (5.85x / Massive) | Lawler | |
| MacDonald vs. Ellenberger | MacDonald (-220 / Moderate) | Ellenberger (1.44x / Small) | Ellenberger | |
| Johnson vs. Moraga | Johnson (-450 / Large) | Johnson (2.41x / Large) | PASS |
Featured Upcoming Bouts (Outside of UFC)
| Friday, October 16th 2026: Professional Fighters League PFL Chicago 2: Carmouche vs. Bishop 2 | |||
 [#6 W125] Liz Carmouche | [#14 W125] Jena Bishop | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 6/27/2026 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#15 W125] Viviane Araujo Last 5: L W W W W | Last Fight Date: 6/27/2026 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#37 W125] Ariane Lipski da Silva Last 5: W W L W W | ||
| Thursday, December 31st 2026: Rizin FF New Years Eve Event | |||
 [#5 FW] Rajabali Shaidullaev |  [#16 FW] Kyoma Akimoto | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 9/10/2026 [Rizin Fighting Federation] Last Opponent: [#7 FW] A.J. McKee Last 5: W W W W W | Last Fight Date: 8/11/2026 [Rizin Fighting Federation] Last Opponent: [#25 FW] Kleber Koike Erbst Last 5: W W W W W | ||
| Saturday, November 14th 2026: Professional Fighters League PFL Returns to Dubai: Nemkov vs. Bilostenniy | |||
 [#6 HW] Vadim Nemkov | [#16 HW] Sergey Bilostenniy | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 12/13/2025 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#20 HW] Renan Ferreira Last 5: W W W W W | Last Fight Date: 5/02/2026 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#20 HW] Renan Ferreira Last 5: W W L W W | ||
Featured Fighters
| [#49 LW] | Mikuru Asakura | [#5 FW] | Rajabali Shaidullaev | |
| [#1 WW] | Islam Makhachev | [#1 FW] |  Alexander Volkanovski | |
| [#29 FW] | Ren Hiramoto | [#1 FLW] |  Joshua Van | |
| [#33 LW] | Akbar Abdullaev | [#4 LW] |  Arman Tsarukyan | |
| [#9 LW] |  Mauricio Ruffy | [#4 FW] | Movsar Evloev |
Recommended YouTube Viewing: “In the Car – UFC on Fox 8 Main Card Breakdown”
One of our viewers, Bryan Stone has been using our rankings to preview upcoming UFC events. Check out his video below and give him some thumbs up!
Fight Matrix Program: UFC 163 (07-27-2013)
Flyweight Championship (125)
[#1/#9DD] Demetrious Johnson (17-2-1, -438) vs. [#5] John Moraga (13-1-0, +389)
Demetrious Johnson is the All-Time #7 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Demetrious Johnson (3-0-0)
2013-01-26: W vs. [#6FLY] John Dodson (14-6-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
2012-09-22: W vs. [#2FLY/#10DD] Joseph Benavidez (18-3-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 49-46)
2012-06-08: W vs. [#8FLY] Ian McCall (11-4-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: John Moraga (3-0-0)
2012-12-29: W vs. [#26FLY] Chris Cariaso (14-6-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:11 of round 3
2012-08-04: W vs. [#72FLY] Ulysses Gomez (9-4-0) via KO (Elbows and Punches) in 3:46 of round 1
2012-07-07: W vs. [#763BW] Jose Carbajal (5-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Demetrious Johnson 182, John Moraga 210
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Demetrious Johnson leads 1-0
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Welterweight (170)
[#3] Jake Ellenberger (29-6-0, +206) vs. [#10] Rory MacDonald (14-1-0, -225)
Jake Ellenberger is the All-Time #17 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Jake Ellenberger (2-1-0)
2013-03-16: W vs. [#20WW] Nate Marquardt (32-12-2) via KO (Punches) in 3:00 of round 1
2012-10-05: W vs. [#34WW] Jay Hieron (23-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-06-01: L vs. [#6WW] Martin Kampmann (20-6-0) via TKO (Knee) in 1:40 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Rory MacDonald (3-0-0)
2012-12-08: W vs. [#23WW] B.J. Penn (16-9-2) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-26)
2012-04-21: W vs. [#89WW] Che Mills (15-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:20 of round 2
2011-08-06: W vs. [#13WW] Mike Pyle (25-8-1) via TKO (Punches) in 3:54 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jake Ellenberger 133, Rory MacDonald 231
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#11] Robbie Lawler (20-9-0, -265) vs. [#152] Bobby Voelker (24-9-0, +246)
Last 3 Fights: Robbie Lawler (2-1-0)
2013-02-23: W vs. [#17WW] Josh Koscheck (17-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:57 of round 1
2012-07-14: L vs. [#25MW] Lorenz Larkin (13-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2012-01-07: W vs. [#45WW] Adlan Amagov (12-2-1) via TKO (Flying Knee and Punches) in 1:48 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Bobby Voelker (2-1-0)
2013-03-16: L vs. [#46WW] Patrick Cote (19-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-07-22: W vs. [#259LW] Roger Bowling (11-4-0) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 2:16 of round 2
2010-10-22: W vs. [#259LW] Roger Bowling (11-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:58 of round 2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Robbie Lawler 154, Bobby Voelker 133
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Current MMA Rankings Updated (07-23-2013)
Notable Info
- This is an intermediate update for testing purposes.
Upcoming Division Dominance Change
With the next rankings update, we will be making a slight tweak to our division dominance routine that will observe interference caused by division jumpers and help situations in which fighters gain most of their points in a strong division, then move to a weaker division — most recently seen at Women’s Featherweight with Marloes Coenen.
Hopefully, this will edge the methodology just a bit closer to a traditional “pound-for-pound” ranking, but it will remain unique in nature. Due to the strength of Men’s MMA across the board, this will have very little effect. However, the Women’s list will be moderately affected by this alteration.
Undefeated Winners’ Performance in Immediate Rematch / Winners’ Performance after KO
I had every intent to create a blog entry, detailing the performance of undefeated winners in an immediate rematch.
However, in known professional MMA history, Chris Weidman will be the first undefeated fighter to give his opponent (Anderson Silva) an immediate rematch after winning the first match — unless it is beaten by a bout scheduled to take place prior to the rematch.
On another note, I found 303 immediate rematches in which the original fighter won by KO or TKO. In the rematches, the original winner was 191-105-5 (2 NC) — a win % of 63.5% (excluding the no contests).
- Narrowing the target down to known Middleweight contests w/ an original finish of TKO or TKO, the original winner was 7-6-1 (50%)
- Narrowing the target down to round 2 finishes KOs and TKOs, the original winner was 43-19-2 (67.2%).
- Getting ultra-specific, there is only one known immediate rematch in which the original match took place at Middleweight with a round 2 KO/TKO finish, and the original winner (Roman Dosenko) lost.
Fight Matrix Program: InvictaFC 6 (07-13-2013)
Women Featherweight Championship (145)
[#1/#1DD] Marloes Coenen (21-5-0, 145.0lb, +650) vs. [#2] Cristiane Justino (11-1-0, 144.9lb, -675)
Marloes Coenen is the All-Time #4 ranked Women’s fighter.
Cristiane Justino is the All-Time #7 ranked Women’s fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Marloes Coenen (2-1-0)
2012-12-31: W vs. [#18FW] Fiona Muxlow (6-3-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 3:29 of round 1
2012-04-28: W vs. [#7FW] Romy Ruyssen (5-2-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)
2011-07-30: L vs. [#6BW] Miesha Tate (13-4-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:03 of round 4
Last 3 Fights: Cristiane Justino (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2013-04-05: W vs. [#18FW] Fiona Muxlow (6-3-0) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 3:46 of round 1
2011-12-17: NC vs. [#8FW] Hiroko Yamanaka (12-3-0) via No Decision Overturned by CSAC in 0:16 of round 1
2010-06-26: W vs. [NA] Jan Finney (8-10-0) via KO (Knee to the Body) in 2:56 of round 2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Marloes Coenen 194, Cristiane Justino 99
Previous Match-up Record: Cristiane Justino leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Marloes Coenen leads 4-2
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Women Strawweight (115)
[#2/#5DD] Ayaka Hamasaki (9-0-0, 115.3lb, +144) vs. [#8] Claudia Gadelha (10-0-0, 114.5lb, -140)
Ayaka Hamasaki is the All-Time #19 ranked Women’s fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Ayaka Hamasaki (3-0-0)
2012-12-15: W vs. [#12SW] Emi Fujino (12-6-0) via UD ()
2012-07-28: W vs. [#9AW] Lacey Schuckman (9-6-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:45 of round 3
2012-05-26: W vs. [#15SW] Yuka Tsuji (24-3-0) via Submission (Kimura) in 3:41 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Claudia Gadelha (3-0-0)
2013-05-11: W vs. [#41SW] Herica Tiburcio (5-2-0) via UD ()
2012-09-21: W vs. [#54FLY] Adriana Vieira (1-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:35 of round 1
2012-04-20: W vs. [#31BW] Valerie Letourneau (4-3-0) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 29-28)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ayaka Hamasaki 210, Claudia Gadelha 63
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Bantamweight (135)
[#9] Sarah DAlelio (7-3-0, 134.8lb, -145) vs. [#11] Lauren Taylor (6-0-0, 134.8lb, +146)
Last 3 Fights: Sarah DAlelio (2-1-0)
2013-01-05: W vs. [#19BW] Amanda Nunes (7-3-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)
2012-10-06: L vs. [#10BW] Shayna Baszler (15-8-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 0:37 of round 2
2012-07-28: W vs. [#3FLY] Vanessa Porto (15-6-0) via Submission (Reverse Triangle Armbar) in 3:16 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Lauren Taylor (3-0-0)
2013-04-05: W vs. [#25BW] Kaitlin Young (7-8-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2013-03-01: W vs. [NA] Jennifer Scott (2-3-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 4:10 of round 1
2011-10-28: W vs. [NA] Julia Griffin (2-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:26 of round 2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sarah DAlelio 189, Lauren Taylor 99
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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