Flyweight Championship (125)
[#1/#8DD] Demetrious Johnson (16-2-1) vs. [#5] John Dodson (14-5-0)
Demetrious Johnson is the All-Time #19 ranked Flyweight fighter.
John Dodson is the All-Time #20 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Demetrious Johnson (2-0-1)
2012-09-22: W vs. [#3FLY] Joseph Benavidez (16-3-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 49-46)
2012-06-08: W vs. [#6FLY] Ian McCall (11-3-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-03-03: D vs. [#6FLY] Ian McCall (11-3-1) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: John Dodson (3-0-0)
2012-10-05: W vs. [#15FLY] Jussier da Silva (14-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:35 of round 2
2012-05-05: W vs. [#12FLY] Tim Elliott (9-3-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-12-03: W vs. [#47BW] T.J. Dillashaw (6-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:54 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Demetrious Johnson 126, John Dodson 113
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#8] Quinton Jackson (32-10-0) vs. [#20] Glover Teixeira (18-2-0)
Quinton Jackson is the All-Time #2 ranked Light Heavyweight and #12 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Quinton Jackson (1-2-0)
2012-02-26: L vs. [#7LHW] Ryan Bader (14-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2011-09-24: L vs. [#1LHW/#3DD] Jon Jones (17-1-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:14 of round 4
2011-05-28: W vs. [#19LHW] Matt Hamill (11-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Glover Teixeira (3-0-0)
2012-10-13: W vs. [#92LHW] Fabio Maldonado (18-6-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2
2012-05-26: W vs. [#74LHW] Kyle Kingsbury (11-5-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 1:53 of round 1
2011-11-27: W vs. [#123HW+] Ricco Rodriguez (49-19-0) via Submission (Punches) in 1:58 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Quinton Jackson 335, Glover Teixeira 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#8] Donald Cerrone (19-4-0) vs. [#13] Anthony Pettis (15-2-0)

Last 3 Fights: Donald Cerrone (2-1-0)
2012-08-11: W vs. [#31LW] Melvin Guillard (30-13-2) via KO (Head Kick and Punch) in 1:16 of round 1
2012-05-15: W vs. [#65LW] Jeremy Stephens (20-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2011-12-30: L vs. [#6LW] Nate Diaz (16-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Anthony Pettis (2-1-0)
2012-02-26: W vs. [#21LW] Joe Lauzon (22-8-0) via KO (Head Kick and Punches) in 1:21 of round 1
2011-10-08: W vs. [#65LW] Jeremy Stephens (20-9-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2011-06-04: L vs. [#16LW] Clay Guida (29-13-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Donald Cerrone 168, Anthony Pettis 335
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Anthony Pettis leads 3-2
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Keep Reading

This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds.  Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:

1. System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
2. System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity.
3. Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
4. Notable home advantage.
5. System inability to project style differences.
6. System inability to factor in bad judging decisions.

But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense.  We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t.  For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant.  Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.

Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money.  So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above.I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses (except for when Leonard Garcia is involved for #6) — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.

The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

Ratings vs. Odds

Now, to the results — given the odds above:

The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet.

There are three favorites worth backing: Trinaldo, Nunes, and Vieira.

This leaves THREE underdogs worth considering:

All three underdogs, Dollaway, I. Alcantara, and Craig are similar in that the oddsmakers are clearly looking past the ledgers, of which Brazilian ones are sketchy to begin with.  Their opponents are favored for stylistic and skill purposes, so tread lightly.

Middleweight (185)
[#5] Vitor Belfort (21-10-0) vs. [#8] Michael Bisping (23-4-0)
Michael Bisping is the All-Time #18 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Vitor Belfort (2-1-0)
2012-09-22: L vs. [#1LHW/#3DD] Jon Jones (17-1-0) via Submission (Keylock) in 0:54 of round 4
2012-01-14: W vs. [#13LHW] Anthony Johnson (14-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:49 of round 1
2011-08-06: W vs. [#177WW] Yoshihiro Akiyama (13-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:52 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Michael Bisping (2-1-0)
2012-09-22: W vs. [#17MW] Brian Stann (12-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-01-28: L vs. [#2MW] Chael Sonnen (27-12-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-12-03: W vs. [#133MW] Jason Miller (23-9-0) via TKO (Knees to the Body and Punches) in 3:34 of round 3

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Vitor Belfort 119, Michael Bisping 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Vitor Belfort leads 2-1
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Middleweight (185)
[#48] C.B. Dollaway (12-4-0) vs. [*] Daniel Sarafian (7-2-0)

Last 3 Fights: C.B. Dollaway (1-2-0)
2012-05-26: W vs. [#133MW] Jason Miller (23-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-26)
2011-08-14: L vs. [#124MW] Jared Hamman (13-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:38 of round 2
2011-03-03: L vs. [#13MW] Mark Munoz (12-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:54 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Daniel Sarafian (3-0-0)
2011-07-05: W vs. [#827MW] Ricardo Silva (11-14-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:01 of round 1
2011-02-26: W vs. [NA] Gilklei Antonio Silva (0-1-0) via Submission (Punches) in 1:44 of round 1
2010-10-23: W vs. [#252MW] Mauricio Alonso (9-4-0) via UD ()

Days Since Last Pro Fight: C.B. Dollaway 238, Daniel Sarafian 564
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[#16] Ben Rothwell (32-8-0) vs. [#20] Gabriel Gonzaga (13-6-0)

Last 3 Fights: Ben Rothwell (2-1-0)
2012-04-21: W vs. [#26HW+] Brendan Schaub (8-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:10 of round 1
2011-09-24: L vs. [#12HW+] Mark Hunt (8-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-27, 30-27)
2010-06-12: W vs. [#34LHW] Gilbert Yvel (38-16-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Gabriel Gonzaga (2-1-0)
2012-01-14: W vs. [#70HW+] Ednaldo Oliveira (13-1-1) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:22 of round 1
2011-10-08: W vs. [*] Parker Porter (5-3-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 1:50 of round 3
2010-10-23: L vs. [#26HW+] Brendan Schaub (8-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ben Rothwell 273, Gabriel Gonzaga 371
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Ben Rothwell leads 1-0
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Keep Reading

Heavyweight Championship (265)
[#1/#2DD] Junior dos Santos (15-1-0, 239.0lb) vs. [#2/#8DD] Cain Velasquez (10-1-0, 240.0lb)
Junior dos Santos is the All-Time #5 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Cain Velasquez is the All-Time #7 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Junior dos Santos (3-0-0)
2012-05-26: W vs. [#6HW+] Frank Mir (16-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:04 of round 2
2011-11-12: W vs. [#2HW+/#8DD] Cain Velasquez (10-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:04 of round 1
2011-06-11: W vs. [*] Shane Carwin (12-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)

Last 3 Fights: Cain Velasquez (2-1-0)
2012-05-26: W vs. [#7HW+] Antonio Silva (17-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:36 of round 1
2011-11-12: L vs. [#1HW+/#2DD] Junior dos Santos (15-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:04 of round 1
2010-10-23: W vs. [*] Brock Lesnar (5-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:12 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Junior dos Santos 217, Cain Velasquez 217
Previous Match-up Record: Junior dos Santos leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#17] Jim Miller (21-4-0, 156.0lb) vs. [#18] Joe Lauzon (22-7-0, 156.0lb)
Jim Miller is the All-Time #22 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jim Miller (1-2-0)
2012-05-05: L vs. [#5LW] Nate Diaz (16-8-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:09 of round 2
2012-01-20: W vs. [#32LW] Melvin Guillard (30-12-2) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:04 of round 1
2011-08-14: L vs. [#1LW/#5DD] Ben Henderson (18-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Joe Lauzon (2-1-0)
2012-08-04: W vs. [#52LW] Jamie Varner (20-7-1) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 2:44 of round 3
2012-02-26: L vs. [#12LW] Anthony Pettis (15-2-0) via KO (Head Kick and Punches) in 1:21 of round 1
2011-10-08: W vs. [#32LW] Melvin Guillard (30-12-2) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 0:47 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jim Miller 238, Joe Lauzon 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#6] Tim Boetsch (16-4-0, 186.0lb) vs. [#22] Constantinos Philippou (11-2-0, 186.0lb)

Last 3 Fights: Tim Boetsch (3-0-0)
2012-07-21: W vs. [#7MW] Hector Lombard (32-3-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2012-02-26: W vs. [#16MW] Yushin Okami (27-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:54 of round 3
2011-09-24: W vs. [#35MW] Nick Ring (13-1-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Constantinos Philippou (3-0-0)
2012-07-07: W vs. [#52MW] Riki Fukuda (19-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2012-03-03: W vs. [#68MW] Court McGee (14-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-12-10: W vs. [#123MW] Jared Hamman (13-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:11 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Tim Boetsch 161, Constantinos Philippou 175
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.
Keep Reading

This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds.  Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:

1. System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
2. System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity.
3. Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
4. Notable home advantage.
5. System inability to project style differences.
6. System inability to factor in bad judging decisions.

But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense.  We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t.  For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant.  Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.

Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money.  So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above. I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses (except for when Leonard Garcia is involved for #6) — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.

The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

Ratings vs. Odds

Now, to the results — given the odds above:

The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet.

There are two favorites worth backing: Guillard and Perez.  Guillard is worth a very small bet, while Perez looks like good parlay material.  He’s got a tremendous rating advantage over his opponent.

This leaves FIVE underdogs worth considering:

De Fries vs. Duffee – This one is worth a very small flier at best.  Duffee is the ratings favorite, but the rating difference suggests Duffee projects to approximately a -160 favorite, not a -300 one.

Lauzon vs. Miller – A “dead even” fight by FightMatrix standards, so it’s worth taking a chance on Lauzon who is about a 2-to-1 underdog right now.

Belcher vs. Okami – Okami is a guy that the system has always shown a relative dislike for.  Take that with a grain of salt and pass, or ride with Belcher for a moderate bet, even if he becomes a very slight favorite.

Cariaso vs. Moraga – Cariaso recently dropped from Bantam and took his points with him.  If the weight comes off easily, he makes a fairly strong underdog bet.

Boetsch vs. Philippou – Though helped just a bit by his questionable decision win over Lombard, he looks to be the most solid underdog bet of the bunch.