UFC on 163: Ratings vs. Odds (08-03-2013)
This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds. Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.
With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:
- System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
- System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity or short-notice.
- Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
- Notable home advantage.
- System inability to project style differences.
- System inability to factor in bad judging or overturned decisions.
But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense. We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t. For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant. Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.
Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money. So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above. I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.
The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.
Having said all that, let’s get started:
Ratings vs. Odds
| Fight | Odds Favorite | Rating Favorite | I’d bet on | “Gotchas” |
| Marunde vs. Andrade | Andrade (-165 / Small) | Marunde (1.03x / Pick ‘Em) | PASS | #4 |
| Barroso vs. Oliveira | Oliveira (-133 / Very Small) | Barroso (1.03x / Pick ‘Em) | PASS | #1, #2 |
| Yahya vs. Clopton | Yahya (-875 / Very Large) | Yahya (7.86x / Massive) | Yahya | #4 |
| McCall vs. Santos | McCall (-370 / Large) | McCall (1.60x / Moderate) | PASS | #1, #4 |
| Moraes vs. Magny | Moraes (-127 / Very Small) | Magny (1.33x / Small) | PASS | #4 |
| Nunes vs. Gaff | Nunes (-331 / Large) | Gaff (1.04x / Pick ‘Em) | PASS | #4 |
| Magalhaes vs. Perosh | Magalhaes (-350 / Large) | Magalhaes (1.28x / Small) | PASS | #4 |
| Lineker vs. Maria Tome | Lineker (-425 / Large) | Lineker (1.78x / Moderate) | Tome | |
| Leites vs. Watson | Leites (-120 / Pick ‘Em) | Leites (1.13x / Very Small) | PASS | #4 |
| Ferreira vs. Santos | Ferreira (-400 / Large) | Ferreira (1.97x / Large) | PASS | |
| Machida vs. Davis | Machida (-340 / Large) | Machida (3.27x / Very Large) | Machida | #4 |
| Aldo vs. Sung Jung | Aldo (-600 / Very Large) | Aldo (4.78x / Massive) | Aldo | #4 |
Featured Upcoming Bouts (Outside of UFC)
| Saturday, December 13th 2025: PFL Europe 4: 2025 Finals | |||
 [#1 W145] Cristiane Justino |  [#3 W145] Sara Collins | ||
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| |||
| Last Fight Date: 10/19/2024 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#2 W145] Larissa Pacheco Last 5: W W W W W | Last Fight Date: 9/14/2024 [BellatorFC] Last Opponent: [#6 W145] Leah McCourt Last 5: W W W W W | ||
| Sunday, December 14th 2025: Deep - Tokyo Impact 2025 6th Round | |||
 [#2 SW] Haruo Ochi | [#9 SW] Sora Sugiyama | ||
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| |||
| Last Fight Date: 3/30/2025 [Rizin Fighting Federation] Last Opponent: [#41 SW] Nobuyoshi Nakatsukasa Last 5: W W W W W | Last Fight Date: 9/15/2025 [DEEP] Last Opponent: [#41 SW] Nobuyoshi Nakatsukasa Last 5: - - - W W | ||
| Saturday, December 13th 2025: PFL Europe 4: 2025 Finals | |||
 [#8 HW] Vadim Nemkov | [#10 HW] Renan Ferreira | ||
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| |||
| Last Fight Date: 1/25/2025 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#29 HW] Tim Johnson Last 5: NC W W W W | Last Fight Date: 10/19/2024 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#3 HW] Francis Ngannou Last 5: W W W W L | ||
Featured Fighters
| [#1 LW] | Islam Makhachev | [#15 WW] | Gabriel Bonfim | |
| [#1 WW] | Jack Della Maddalena | [#28 WW] |  Uros Medic | |
| [#2 LW] |  Ilia Topuria | [#45 WW] |  Seok Hyeon Ko | |
| [#145 LW] | Ismael Bonfim | [#31 WW] | Randy Brown | |
| [#3 LW] | Charles Oliveira | [#1 MW] |  Khamzat Chimaev |
Fight Matrix Program: UFC 163 (08-03-2013)
Featherweight Championship (145)
[#1/#4DD] Jose Aldo (22-1-0, -645) vs. [#16] Chan Sung Jung (13-3-0, +530)
Jose Aldo is the All-Time #1 ranked Featherweight and #11 ranked Absolute fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Jose Aldo (3-0-0)
2013-02-02: W vs. [#2FW] Frankie Edgar (16-4-1) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
2012-01-14: W vs. [#6FW] Chad Mendes (14-1-0) via KO (Knee) in 4:59 of round 1
2011-10-08: W vs. [*] Kenny Florian (14-6-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
Last 3 Fights: Chan Sung Jung (3-0-0)
2012-05-15: W vs. [#30FW] Dustin Poirier (13-3-0) via Technical Submission (Brabo Choke) in 1:07 of round 4
2011-12-10: W vs. [*] Mark Hominick (20-12-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:07 of round 1
2011-03-26: W vs. [#98FW] Leonard Garcia (16-11-1) via Submission (Twister) in 4:59 of round 2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jose Aldo 182, Chan Sung Jung 445
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#2] Lyoto Machida (19-3-0, -340) vs. [#15] Phil Davis (11-1-0, +306)
Lyoto Machida is the All-Time #7 ranked Light Heavyweight and #16 ranked Absolute fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Lyoto Machida (2-1-0)
2013-02-23: W vs. [#4LHW] Dan Henderson (29-10-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-08-04: W vs. [#9LHW] Ryan Bader (15-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:32 of round 2
2011-12-10: L vs. [#1LHW/#3DD] Jon Jones (18-1-0) via Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:26 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Phil Davis (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2013-04-27: W vs. [#32LHW] Vinny Magalhaes (10-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2012-10-13: W vs. [#233LHW] Wagner Prado (8-2-0) via Submission (Anaconda Choke) in 4:29 of round 2
2012-08-04: NC vs. [#233LHW] Wagner Prado (8-2-0) via NC (Accidental Eye Poke) in 1:28 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Lyoto Machida 161, Phil Davis 98
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Lyoto Machida leads 1-0
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Middleweight (185)
[#265] Cezar Ferreira (5-2-0, -412) vs. [#800WW] Thiago Santos (8-1-0, +328)
Last 3 Fights: Cezar Ferreira (2-1-0)
2012-06-23: W vs. [#436WW] Sergio Moraes (7-2-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2011-08-20: L vs. [#38MW] Elvis Mutapcic (13-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:25 of round 1
2011-04-16: W vs. [*] Chaun Sims (5-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:17 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Thiago Santos (2-1-0)
2012-07-27: W vs. [NA] Denis Figueira da Silva (1-4-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in ? of round 1
2012-04-28: L vs. [#399MW] Vicente Luque (6-4-1) via TKO (Punches) in ? of round 1
2012-03-03: W vs. [#1237WW] Junior Vidal (3-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in ? of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cezar Ferreira 406, Thiago Santos 372
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Keep Reading
UFC on FOX 8: Ratings vs. Odds (07-27-2013)
This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds. Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.
With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:
- System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
- System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity or short-notice.
- Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
- Notable home advantage.
- System inability to project style differences.
- System inability to factor in bad judging or overturned decisions.
But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense. We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t. For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant. Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.
Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money. So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above. I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.
The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.
Having said all that, let’s get started:
Ratings vs. Odds
| Fight | Odds Favorite | Rating Favorite | I’d bet on | “Gotchas” |
| Albert vs. Meza | Albert (-230 / Moderate) | Meza (2.30x / Large) | PASS | #1 |
| Riley vs. Salas | Salas (-220 / Moderate) | Salas (3.44x / Very Large) | PASS | #2 |
| Herman vs. Smith | Herman (-235 / Moderate) | Herman (2.04x / Large) | Herman | |
| Kedzie vs. de Randamie | de Randamie (-108 / Pick ‘Em) | de Randamie (1.45x / Moderate) | PASS | #1 |
| Edwards vs. Cruickshank | Cruickshank (-125 / Very Small) | Edwards (1.77x / Moderate) | Edwards | |
| Guillard vs. Danzig | Guillard (-115 / Pick ‘Em) | Guillard (1.21x / Very Small) | PASS | |
| Castillo vs. Means | Castillo (-205 / Moderate) | Castillo (1.26x / Small) | Means | |
| Masvidal vs. Chiesa | Masvidal (-270 / Moderate) | Masvidal (2.43x / Large) | PASS | #3 |
| Carmouche vs. Andrade | Carmouche (-525 / Very Large) | Carmouche (1.15x / Very Small) | PASS | #3, #4 |
| Lawler vs. Voelker | Lawler (-260 / Moderate) | Lawler (5.85x / Massive) | Lawler | |
| MacDonald vs. Ellenberger | MacDonald (-220 / Moderate) | Ellenberger (1.44x / Small) | Ellenberger | |
| Johnson vs. Moraga | Johnson (-450 / Large) | Johnson (2.41x / Large) | PASS |
Recommended YouTube Viewing: “In the Car – UFC on Fox 8 Main Card Breakdown”
One of our viewers, Bryan Stone has been using our rankings to preview upcoming UFC events. Check out his video below and give him some thumbs up!
Fight Matrix Program: UFC 163 (07-27-2013)
Flyweight Championship (125)
[#1/#9DD] Demetrious Johnson (17-2-1, -438) vs. [#5] John Moraga (13-1-0, +389)
Demetrious Johnson is the All-Time #7 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Demetrious Johnson (3-0-0)
2013-01-26: W vs. [#6FLY] John Dodson (14-6-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
2012-09-22: W vs. [#2FLY/#10DD] Joseph Benavidez (18-3-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 49-46)
2012-06-08: W vs. [#8FLY] Ian McCall (11-4-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: John Moraga (3-0-0)
2012-12-29: W vs. [#26FLY] Chris Cariaso (14-6-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:11 of round 3
2012-08-04: W vs. [#72FLY] Ulysses Gomez (9-4-0) via KO (Elbows and Punches) in 3:46 of round 1
2012-07-07: W vs. [#763BW] Jose Carbajal (5-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Demetrious Johnson 182, John Moraga 210
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Demetrious Johnson leads 1-0
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Welterweight (170)
[#3] Jake Ellenberger (29-6-0, +206) vs. [#10] Rory MacDonald (14-1-0, -225)
Jake Ellenberger is the All-Time #17 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Jake Ellenberger (2-1-0)
2013-03-16: W vs. [#20WW] Nate Marquardt (32-12-2) via KO (Punches) in 3:00 of round 1
2012-10-05: W vs. [#34WW] Jay Hieron (23-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-06-01: L vs. [#6WW] Martin Kampmann (20-6-0) via TKO (Knee) in 1:40 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Rory MacDonald (3-0-0)
2012-12-08: W vs. [#23WW] B.J. Penn (16-9-2) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-26)
2012-04-21: W vs. [#89WW] Che Mills (15-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:20 of round 2
2011-08-06: W vs. [#13WW] Mike Pyle (25-8-1) via TKO (Punches) in 3:54 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jake Ellenberger 133, Rory MacDonald 231
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#11] Robbie Lawler (20-9-0, -265) vs. [#152] Bobby Voelker (24-9-0, +246)
Last 3 Fights: Robbie Lawler (2-1-0)
2013-02-23: W vs. [#17WW] Josh Koscheck (17-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:57 of round 1
2012-07-14: L vs. [#25MW] Lorenz Larkin (13-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2012-01-07: W vs. [#45WW] Adlan Amagov (12-2-1) via TKO (Flying Knee and Punches) in 1:48 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Bobby Voelker (2-1-0)
2013-03-16: L vs. [#46WW] Patrick Cote (19-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-07-22: W vs. [#259LW] Roger Bowling (11-4-0) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 2:16 of round 2
2010-10-22: W vs. [#259LW] Roger Bowling (11-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:58 of round 2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Robbie Lawler 154, Bobby Voelker 133
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Keep Reading
Current MMA Rankings Updated (07-23-2013)
Notable Info
- This is an intermediate update for testing purposes.
Upcoming Division Dominance Change
With the next rankings update, we will be making a slight tweak to our division dominance routine that will observe interference caused by division jumpers and help situations in which fighters gain most of their points in a strong division, then move to a weaker division — most recently seen at Women’s Featherweight with Marloes Coenen.
Hopefully, this will edge the methodology just a bit closer to a traditional “pound-for-pound” ranking, but it will remain unique in nature. Due to the strength of Men’s MMA across the board, this will have very little effect. However, the Women’s list will be moderately affected by this alteration.
Undefeated Winners’ Performance in Immediate Rematch / Winners’ Performance after KO
I had every intent to create a blog entry, detailing the performance of undefeated winners in an immediate rematch.
However, in known professional MMA history, Chris Weidman will be the first undefeated fighter to give his opponent (Anderson Silva) an immediate rematch after winning the first match — unless it is beaten by a bout scheduled to take place prior to the rematch.
On another note, I found 303 immediate rematches in which the original fighter won by KO or TKO. In the rematches, the original winner was 191-105-5 (2 NC) — a win % of 63.5% (excluding the no contests).
- Narrowing the target down to known Middleweight contests w/ an original finish of TKO or TKO, the original winner was 7-6-1 (50%)
- Narrowing the target down to round 2 finishes KOs and TKOs, the original winner was 43-19-2 (67.2%).
- Getting ultra-specific, there is only one known immediate rematch in which the original match took place at Middleweight with a round 2 KO/TKO finish, and the original winner (Roman Dosenko) lost.
Fight Matrix Program: InvictaFC 6 (07-13-2013)
Women Featherweight Championship (145)
[#1/#1DD] Marloes Coenen (21-5-0, 145.0lb, +650) vs. [#2] Cristiane Justino (11-1-0, 144.9lb, -675)
Marloes Coenen is the All-Time #4 ranked Women’s fighter.
Cristiane Justino is the All-Time #7 ranked Women’s fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Marloes Coenen (2-1-0)
2012-12-31: W vs. [#18FW] Fiona Muxlow (6-3-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 3:29 of round 1
2012-04-28: W vs. [#7FW] Romy Ruyssen (5-2-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)
2011-07-30: L vs. [#6BW] Miesha Tate (13-4-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:03 of round 4
Last 3 Fights: Cristiane Justino (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2013-04-05: W vs. [#18FW] Fiona Muxlow (6-3-0) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 3:46 of round 1
2011-12-17: NC vs. [#8FW] Hiroko Yamanaka (12-3-0) via No Decision Overturned by CSAC in 0:16 of round 1
2010-06-26: W vs. [NA] Jan Finney (8-10-0) via KO (Knee to the Body) in 2:56 of round 2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Marloes Coenen 194, Cristiane Justino 99
Previous Match-up Record: Cristiane Justino leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Marloes Coenen leads 4-2
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Women Strawweight (115)
[#2/#5DD] Ayaka Hamasaki (9-0-0, 115.3lb, +144) vs. [#8] Claudia Gadelha (10-0-0, 114.5lb, -140)
Ayaka Hamasaki is the All-Time #19 ranked Women’s fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Ayaka Hamasaki (3-0-0)
2012-12-15: W vs. [#12SW] Emi Fujino (12-6-0) via UD ()
2012-07-28: W vs. [#9AW] Lacey Schuckman (9-6-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:45 of round 3
2012-05-26: W vs. [#15SW] Yuka Tsuji (24-3-0) via Submission (Kimura) in 3:41 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Claudia Gadelha (3-0-0)
2013-05-11: W vs. [#41SW] Herica Tiburcio (5-2-0) via UD ()
2012-09-21: W vs. [#54FLY] Adriana Vieira (1-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:35 of round 1
2012-04-20: W vs. [#31BW] Valerie Letourneau (4-3-0) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 29-28)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ayaka Hamasaki 210, Claudia Gadelha 63
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Bantamweight (135)
[#9] Sarah DAlelio (7-3-0, 134.8lb, -145) vs. [#11] Lauren Taylor (6-0-0, 134.8lb, +146)
Last 3 Fights: Sarah DAlelio (2-1-0)
2013-01-05: W vs. [#19BW] Amanda Nunes (7-3-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)
2012-10-06: L vs. [#10BW] Shayna Baszler (15-8-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 0:37 of round 2
2012-07-28: W vs. [#3FLY] Vanessa Porto (15-6-0) via Submission (Reverse Triangle Armbar) in 3:16 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Lauren Taylor (3-0-0)
2013-04-05: W vs. [#25BW] Kaitlin Young (7-8-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2013-03-01: W vs. [NA] Jennifer Scott (2-3-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 4:10 of round 1
2011-10-28: W vs. [NA] Julia Griffin (2-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:26 of round 2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sarah DAlelio 189, Lauren Taylor 99
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Keep Reading
UFC 162: Ratings vs. Odds (07-06-2013)
This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds. Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.
With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:
- System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
- System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity or short-notice.
- Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
- Notable home advantage.
- System inability to project style differences.
- System inability to factor in bad judging or overturned decisions.
But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense. We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t. For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant. Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.
Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money. So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above. I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.
The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.
Having said all that, let’s get started:
Ratings vs. Odds
| Fight | Odds Favorite | Rating Favorite | I’d bet on | “Gotchas” |
| Pierce vs. Mitchell | Pierce (-643 / Very Large) | Pierce (4.26x / Massive) | Pierce | |
| Baczynski vs. Melancon | Baczynski (-293 / Moderate) | Baczynski (3.30x / Very Large) | Baczynski | #2 |
| Barboza vs. Oliveira | Barboza (-586 / Very Large) | Barboza (1.45x / Small) | PASS | #2 |
| Gonzaga vs. Herman | Gonzaga (-243 / Moderate) | Gonzaga (2.24x / Large) | Gonzaga | |
| Parke vs. Tokudome | Parke (-199 / Moderate) | Tokudome (1.02x / Pick ‘Em) | Tokudome | |
| Craig vs. Leben | Craig (-152 / Small) | Leben (1.07x / Pick ‘Em) | Leben | |
| Swanson vs. Siver | Swanson (-234 / Moderate) | Siver (1.06x / Pick ‘Em) | Siver | |
| Munoz vs. Boetsch | Munoz (-128 / Very Small) | Boetsch (1.03x / Pick ‘Em) | Boetsch | |
| Gracie vs. Kennedy | Kennedy (-149 / Small) | Gracie (1.29x / Small) | Gracie | |
| Edgar vs. Oliveira | Edgar (-580 / Very Large) | Edgar (3.39x / Very Large) | PASS | |
| Silva vs. Weidman | Silva (-244 / Moderate) | Silva (2.54x / Large) | PASS | #3 |
The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet.
Betting favorites to consider: Pierce, Baczynski, Gonzaga
Betting underdogs to consider:
- Tokudome over Parke
- Leben over Craig
- Siver over Swanson
- Boetsch over Munoz
- Gracie over Kennedy
All of the above betting underdogs are simply cases where the rating system disagrees with the odds as to who is the favorite, but the separation is small on all of them — they are all nearly 50/50 fights per the ratings.